Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
353 AM AST SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN RE-DEVELOPING OVER
USVI SINCE MIDNIGHT. THEY EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH AND
MOVING WEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS...HAVING REACHED VIEQUES. THERE IS
APPARENTLY A SMALL LOW LEVEL WAVE AND A WIND SURGE FOLLOWING THE
STORMS. 00Z WRF AND 18Z ARW MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUGHT SOME
SEMBLENCE OF THIS BUT WRF WAS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOW AND ARW ONLY
PUSHED THE STORMS TO THE NORTH OF ST. THOMAS. EXTRAPOLATION OF
THE LINE FROM RADAR...WHICH IS WEAKENING A LITTLE...WOULD PUSH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN PR EARLY THIS MORNING SO RAISED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THERE SOMEWHAT.

LOTS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVER ISLANDS BUT BELIEVE IT IS THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW GOOD HEATING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO OCCUR MOST OF
ISLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MAIN ISLAND OF PR. NO
UPPER JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO HELP GENERATE THIS BUT THE LOW LEVEL
WAVE MIGHT INITIALIZE SOME BY LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE ISLAND. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS TOO WEAK TO CAUSE MUCH
CONVECTION WITHOUT HEATING OF ISLANDS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL HOVE NEAR 2 INCHES EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS INDICATES
NO SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN MOISTURE UNTIL ABOUT THU.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...SPREADING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO THE USVI AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS. THEN AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS ISX/JBQ/JMZ/JSJ AND THE VCNTY OF JPS...WITH
MULTIPLE SCT/BKN LAYERS AND MAX TOPS NEAR 40 KFT. WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PR. SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT EXPECTED BELOW 10 KFT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO RE-
ESTABLISH TRADE WINDS. BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TOO WEAK AND
TOO FAR AWAY TO STRENGTHEN TRADES VERY MUCH BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN
BY TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 70 50 40 30
STT 87 80 87 78 / 60 60 30 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
DEVELOPED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SEVERAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON FOR NUMEROUS
MUNICIPALITIES ALONG NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FEW SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...BUT IN GENERAL LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTED THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FRIDAY AND TODAY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEHIND
THE WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO INTERACT WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND LATER
ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE SAME SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN IMPROVE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER TJSJ...TJMZ..AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH AT
LEAST 30/23Z. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. LATEST DATA FROM THE LOCAL BUOYS SUGGEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR NEAR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHERE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 91 / 50 40 30 30
STT 80 87 78 88 / 60 30 30 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
402 AM AST SUN MAY 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGHEST MOISTURE...AS NOTED ON THE 2.28 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z TJSJ RAOB HAS MOVED NORTH AND
WEST OF PR. STILL A LOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS BUT
THESE WILL DECREASE AND KEEP ON MOVING AWAY. ACCORDING TO 00Z GFS
THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE UNTIL LATE
THU...ALL THE WHILE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. SO POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR GOOD SHOWERS IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN BE REALIZED IN THE RIGHT
PLACES. STILL A LOT OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE HEATING SOME AT TIMES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN EACH DAY THIS
WEEK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR BUT SHOWERS
SCATTERED AT TIMES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH TOO...AND MAINLY AT
NIGHT ACROSS UVSI IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY TEND TO DRY OUT THE AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 600 MB AND
LIMIT THE EFFICIENCY OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...VCSH EN ROUTE FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO EASTERN PR AND SCT-BKN LAYERS BETWEEN FL100-150 EXPECTED
OVR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ATLANTIC WATERS THRU SUN MORNING. SHRA/TSRA
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON...COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDS
IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ BETWEEN 16Z-21Z.
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED IN HIGHER TERRAIN. E TO SE WINDS 10-
15 KT BELOW 10 KFT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA AFT 16Z...SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXITING TROPICAL WAVE IS FINALLY ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO RE-ESTABLISH TRADE WINDS A LITTLE THIS MORNING.
BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...CAUSING THE TRADES TO WEAKEN
AGAIN BY ABOUT TUE. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE TRADES TO REACH 5 FT
ACROSS MUCH OF SURROUNDING WATER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WILL LAY
DOWN AGAIN BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 40 30 30 10
STT 86 78 88 78 / 30 30 30 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
140 PM AST SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILDS OVER
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER EASTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IS HIGH AT THE SURFACE...THE CLOUD COVER...HAS
LIMITED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HAS STARTED TO DOMINATES THE REGION. THESE FEATURE ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR SHOWER FORMATION...BUT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST SECTION
OF PUERTO RICO. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THE
ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE OF DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEEK
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION LATE DURING THE
WEEK...INCREASING AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...VCSH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 31/23Z. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC RE-ESTABLISHED THE TRADE
WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...CAUSING THE TRADES TO WEAKEN AGAIN BY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE TRADES TO REACH 5 FT ACROSS MUCH OF SURROUNDING
WATER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...BUT WILL
LAY DOWN AGAIN BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 30 30 10 30
STT 78 88 78 88 / 30 30 30 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THRU MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS NORTH OF THE AREA...PWAT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADES WILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS
DURING THE NIGHT TIME.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND A STRONG SAL REACHES THE CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP MVFR IN SOME AFT SHRA/TSRA NW PR AGAIN
MON/TUE AFT...OBSCD MTNS TOO. FEW MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA THRU TUE
ELSEWHERE. WIND THRU TUE ESE 8-20 KT TO FL080...VRBL NR FL100...
VEERING TO W ABV AND INCR W HGT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO A WIND SURGE IN THE TRADES. HOWEVER...THEY WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN
TOMORROW AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 77 / 40 20 30 40
STT 88 80 87 78 / 20 30 30 40

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THRU MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SAME WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND 45 WEST THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...MODELS SUGGEST A DENSE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES...XCP MVFR OVER
TJBQ...TJMZ DUE TO AFT SHRA/TSRA...AND OBSCD MTNS TOO. AFT 01/23Z
FEW PASSING SHRA...ACROSS EASTERN PR...USVI...LEEWARD ISLANDS TAF
SITE ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ALSO BRIEF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE TOO.
SFC WIND 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUST IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA...FOLLOWED BY
EASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 91 / 20 30 40 40
STT 79 87 79 87 / 30 30 40 40

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST TUE JUN 2 2015

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...PWAT ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS.

FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ANOTHER
PULSE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THIS WAVE...MODELS SUGGEST A DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK. DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...MVFR
CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA...AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCD ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. E TO ESE SFC WIND AT
10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUST IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA...AND SEA BREEZE ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 02/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS BELOW 4 FEET AND TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 40 40 30
STT 86 78 86 78 / 30 40 40 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST OF PR TODAY. IT
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PR...ST THOMAS AND ST
CROIX. FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND EASTERN PR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...CIALES...FLORIDA...LARES...CIALES
MOCAS...LAS MARIAS...MAYAGUEZ...NAGUABO AMONG OTHER
MUNICIPALITIES. THEREFORE...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE REQUIRED ACROSS THESE SECTIONS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT BUILD A DECREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE TYPICAL
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS EACH DAY. ANOTHER
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AT LEAST UNTIL EVENING HRS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS DUE TO
+SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE JBQ/JMZ...ALSO MOUNTAIN OBSCD ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL TIL 02/23Z. THEN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. E
TO ESE SFC WIND AT 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUST IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 02/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BELOW 4 FEET AND TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 92 / 40 40 30 30
STT 78 86 78 87 / 40 40 30 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. WITH THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING
FLOW...EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PART OF
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL THEREFORE REMAIN LIKELY IN THESE AREAS...
AND THEREFORE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...EXPECT A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
OF THE CAP INVERSION OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL SHOULD DECREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SO FAR SUGGESTS
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SAL AND ACCOMPANYING SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO SUPPRESS/LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL PROMOTE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJSJ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA...AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. SEA
BREEZE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 03/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 91 78 / 60 30 30 20
STT 87 79 87 79 / 50 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND BUILD OVER THE LOCAL REGION LATER THIS WEEK. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
LOCAL REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE... A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A BRIEF SURGE
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TODAY. THIS TROUGH ENHANCED SOMEWHAT THE
AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WEST
INTERIOR... WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA...BUT MUCH LESS COMPARE TO YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DISPERSE ON THURSDAY.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
A BRIEF SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WAVE
WILL BRIEFLY ENHANCED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PR/USVI ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A WIND SURGE WILL PUSH QUICKLY THIS WAVE ACROSS THE
REGION...LIMITING THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THEN...DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS WITH HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AFT SHRA/TSRA
AND MOUNTAIN OBSC MAY PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TJBQ...TJMZ. E TO ESE SURFACE WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND SEA BREEZE FLUCTUATIONS...FOLLOWED BY CALM
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AFT 03/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECTED SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET AND
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON MONDAY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 30 30 20 30
STT 78 87 79 86 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST THU JUN 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE/SUPPRESS MOISTURE AS THE TRADE WIND INVERSION STRENGTHENS.
IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS ATLANTIC ...AND THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND MAINTAIN AN EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE TRAILING THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WAS HELPING
TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS
WERE BRUSHING THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO COMBINE WITH
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY...EXPECTED ANOTHER QUICK
SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HOWEVER SHOULD AFFECT BE FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO BETTER LOCAL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW SHOULD
STEER THE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST DURING EACH DAY.

THEREAFTER AND BY SUNDAY...A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST
AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THEN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TJSJ...TISX...
TNCM AND TKPK FLYING TERMINALS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER 04/17Z...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJBQ AND
TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LIGHT AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING...STRENGTHENING TO 10-15 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 04/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS AND THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES RETURN. HOWEVER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE SO FAR NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 90 78 / 20 20 40 20
STT 87 80 88 80 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST THU JUN 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILD OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SURFACE
PERTURBATION...OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PR AND USVI AFTER SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATE IN THE MORNING HOURS...A DRIER AIR MASS
REACHED THE LOCAL AREA AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

A SURFACE PERTURBATION WILL COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE SURFACE
MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR. ON THE OTHER HAND...MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE NIGHT HOURS.

THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TO FAVOR BRISK TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL REACH THE ISLANDS AND A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
THROUGH 22Z IN SHRA/TSRA. ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW
18 KNOTS...HOWEVER HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 91 / 20 40 20 30
STT 79 88 79 88 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST FRI JUN 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BUILD WEST AND SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND BRING A QUICK SURGE
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TRAILING THIS FEATURE
IS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND A MODERATE
CONCENTRATION OF SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES TO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THOUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOT OF DRIER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SOME MOISTURE WILL TRAIL THE DEPARTING
TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...MORE STREAMER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS.

AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION STRENGTHENS...EXPECT
GRADUAL EROSION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BY LATE SATURDAY AND DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES BY
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM THEN ON
AND AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY PERTUBATIONS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION MODELS HINT A DEVELOPING
SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE
ALOFT INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. MORE TO COME ON THIS LATER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...INDUCING MOSTLY VFR CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN...INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INDUCING PERIODS OF MVFR/PSBL
BRIEF IFR OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 05/18Z WITH MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS
AFT 05/16Z. WINDS MAINLY FM E-ESE BLO FL150...THEN BACKING AND BCM
FM N WHILE INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS STILL
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SEAS UP TO 6 POSSIBLE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES...AND WINDS INCREASING TO
UP TO 20 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 40 20 30 30
STT 87 80 87 80 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST FRI JUN 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA...ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE A GRADUAL TIGHTENING IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
PRODUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATE TODAY...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO BRING A QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. FOLLOWED...BY A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER AND HAZY WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AFTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ST MAARTEN AND GUADELOUPE REPORTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES...THAT AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PR AND THE USVI LATE TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SUGGESTING THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PWAT VALUES AFTER SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CREATE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST
AND TISX FROM 05/23Z THROUGH 06/12Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS STILL
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AND LOCAL PASSAGES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 90 / 20 30 30 30
STT 79 87 81 87 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TIGHTENING IN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INDUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROPICAL MOVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS
BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE...LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SUGGESTING THE ARRIVAL OF A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM THE EAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER
AND HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANCE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THRU THE
FCST PD. BRIEF PDS OF MVFR PSBL VCNTY TNCM AND TKPK TIL 06/13Z. ALSO
SOME SCT-BKN LOW LVL CLDS BTW FL020-FL070 ...SCT HIGH LVL CIRRUS
CLDS NR FL250. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT PSBL OVR N CARL INTERIOR
AND WRN PR 06/18Z AND MAY APRCH VCNTY TJMZ AND TJBQ FOR BRIEF PDS OF
SHRA. WINDS BLO FL160 FM SE 5 TO 15 KT...BCMG FM N AND INCRG W/HT
ABV TO MAX OF 50 KTS OR SO NR FL480. NO OTHER SIG AVN OPERATIONAL
HAZARDS FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING...INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET
ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 90 78 / 30 30 30 10
STT 88 81 88 79 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST SAT JUN 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER
THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
TODAY THIS INCREASING THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOW 9O`S ALONG
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS BEGAN TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SET THIS EVENING.

LIMITED SHOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED OVER THE
AREA TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TIGHTENING IN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INDUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL RESULT IN REDUCED
VIS...HOWEVER VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. SE WIND AT AROUND 15 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS FORECAST
STARTING ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF SHORE OF THE EAST
COAST OF U.S. WILL GENERATE A SMALL SWELL THAT WILL REACH OUR
LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 78 92 / 30 30 10 20
STT 81 88 79 89 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST SUN JUN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES MOVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S.V.I. AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WERE MINIMAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE...COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN STEADY DECREASE IN PWAT FROM
AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY TO AROUND 1.60 INCHES ON MONDAY TO LESS
OR NEAR 1.50 INCHES BY MID WEEK. THESE AFFIRMATIONS ARE CONFIRMED
BY TPWAT IMAGES FROM CIMSS.

LATEST GOES-5 AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS IMAGES INDICATED A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT OR RAIN
PRODUCER EVENT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FORESEEABLEFUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LVL CLD LYRS WITH
PASSING SHRA EMBEDDED IN SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA BTW PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS TIL AT LEAST 07/14Z. FEW TCU
WITH PSBL TOPS BTW 15-20 KFT. EARLIER 07/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING
AS WELL AS FCST UPPER AIR SOUNDING...SUGGESTS PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
E WNDS AT 10-120 KT BLO FL150...BCM FM N ABV...WITH 40 KT MAX NEAR
FL400.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF SHORE OF
THE EAST COAST OF U.S. WILL GENERATE A SMALL SWELL THAT WILL REACH
OUR LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 92 79 / 30 10 20 20
STT 87 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN JUN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AT
LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS RIDGE WILL YIELD A
MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO
MORE EASTERLIES BY TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS...INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGES...MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS
AIRMASS...COUPLE WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT...WILL TEND TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TIPICAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER
INTERIOR/WEST SECTIONS OF PR AS THE LIMITED MOISTURE COMBINE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...OROGRAPHY AND SEA BREEZES. ISOLATED
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS USVI AND
EASTERN PR...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW ALONG 44 W...TO APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH...MODELS
HINT AT AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VIS WILL
BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES... HOWEVER VIS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. SE WIND OF 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE BELOW
FL100.


&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS NORTHWARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 91 / 0 20 10 10
STT 79 88 78 89 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Rationing of water will be expanded from June 10 from 24 hours to 48 hours. And no relief is coming soon.

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