Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 AM AST SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
EARLY MON WITH TUTT ACROSS THE ATLC EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT WX
FEATURE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 60W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SEEN ON GOES SOUNDER ENTERING
THE SE PORTION OF OUR CWA LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF PR AND BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN PR. THIS
SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO
YDAY. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS DUE TO FAST STORM MOTION AND 40+KT BETWEEN
700-600 MB AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN. STILL LOOKS LIKE NW PR WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO.

THINGS HOWEVER CHANGE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE EAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ERN
PR...USVI AND ADJACENT WATERS AND RACE TO THE WEST. STORMS COULD
POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS DUE 40-45 KT
AT MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE BETWEEN
03Z-06Z. THINGS THEN DRY OUT RAPIDLY SUN MORNING WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND ARRIVING SAHARAN AIR LAYER.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA AT JBQ THIS AFTERNOON THEN MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT ACROSS JSJ/USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS AS TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES.


&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND WATERS
SURROUNDING USVI AS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.


&&

.CLIMATE...A NEW DAILY RAINFALL RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED YESTERDAY
AT THE SJU INTL ARPT WHERE 1.14 INCHES FELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 50 40 40 40
STT 87 80 89 81 / 60 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N23W TO 22N20W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED ON
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N23W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 15W-21W...AND FROM 09N-13N
BETWEEN 22W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N58W TO 17N58W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 55W-61W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT OVER THE WAVE AS IT REMAINS DRY AND FREE OF
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N54W TO
17N61W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N84W TO 21N87W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND IS NOW LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N81W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NORTH OF COASTAL HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
82W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
15N23W TO 10N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N37W TO 05N45W TO 06N56W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF COASTAL HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
82W-87W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N81W CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FARTHER TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-72W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ALONG 10N/11N WITH A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 06N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-85W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 60W THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. A SLOT OF DRIER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING
SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 60W...IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS...IN
COMBINATION WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROMISE TO BRING AN
ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TOMORROW...AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION...BRINGING WITH IT HAZY CONDITIONS AND
LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL INDICATED
THIS EPISODE OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH(TUTT) WILL BE ESTABLISH OVER
THE AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECT...WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS MAINLY
EVERY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. NO
OTHER WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION... STRAY TSRA XPCD AT JBQ THRU 21Z. MAIN WX MAKER NEXT
12-18 HRS IS TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES ATTM. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS BETWEEN NOW THRU 22/02Z...THEN ACROSS USVI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 22/01Z-22/05Z AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS JSJ BETWEEN
22/03-22/07Z. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN A STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35 KT AS SEEN ON RECENT ACARS ACROSS JSJ AND THE
USVI. THE 0-6KM MEAN FLOW IS ACTUALLY FCST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
WITH STORMS RACING TO THE WEST AT NEARLY 30 KNOTS WITH STORMS POSING
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY AT TIST. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN WITH ARRIVING SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 80 90 / 70 20 40 40
STT 80 91 81 90 / 70 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N21W TO 11N25W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 14N24W. THE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM ALSO COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
7N-14N BETWEEN 22W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
E OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 15W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 10N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 55W-61W. AN INCREASE OF
TROPICAL RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 67W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N90W TO 17N88W TO 14N85W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE TOGETHER WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AIRMASS BUILDUPS MOVING W WITH THE SEA BREEZE ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BELIZE AND N GUATEMALA N OF 16N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W TO E OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N23W. THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS W
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N26W TO 10N40W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 10N40W TO 5N50W TO
FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N53W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NEAR FRENCH GUIANA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 53W-56W.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF
PANAMA AT 10N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 77W-86W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN
THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.The forecast is dry weather for most of the new week in the Eastern Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SUN JUL 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
REGION AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE MODERATE TO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS HAS ALLOWED CELLS TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...SO THAT ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL HAS BEEN BRIEFLY HEAVY...ONLY VERY LIMITED LOW LYING
FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS MORNING.
TJSJ 22/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND WINDS UP TO
40 KNOTS AT 15K FEET OR LESS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS...AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
IN FACT...GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES WILL DECREASE
NEAR OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISH OVER THE FA ON
MONDAY AND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON LONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED.
NO OTHER WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...STREAMS OF MOISTURE CREATING SCT-BKN CLD LYRS WITH
SMALL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL
GENERATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS AS THEY PASS BY.
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST
22/11Z... THEN WX CONDS BCM LESS FAVORABLE AT TJSJ...TIST...TISX BTW
22/09Z-21/14Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFT. LCL MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH 22/14Z MAINLY E INTERIOR OF PR. STRONG ESE LLVL WINDS BLO
20K FT. REACHING 25 KT 500 FEET ABV SFC...THEN INCRG TO NR 40 KT OR
SO NR 15K FT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 78 / 30 40 40 30
STT 91 81 90 80 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N24W JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 14N26W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LOW
CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE REMAINS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N64W TO 10N64W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N63W TO 21N69W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE S GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 21N92W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N91W TO EL SALVADOR MOVING W
20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO S MEXICO COVERING THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 22N16W ALONG 19N21W THROUGH THE 1013 MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N26W CONTINUING ALONG
10N31W TO 10N38W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N49W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 26W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 9N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 48W-57W.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA AND THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 17N79W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW CENTERED S OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W. THIS IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE E CARIBBEAN SE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N
W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA/
COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 12N W OF 78W TO INLAND FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-85W INCLUDING CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM
21N24W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 13N30W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE
LOW CENTER IS JUST A FEW MILES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE
REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N65W TO 12N67W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE S-WRN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE WRN ATLC. THUS...NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SRN
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS NOW IN THE ERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC. SEE PACIFIC HIGH SEAS DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA IN WEST
AFRICA NEAR 19N16W TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 13N25W
10N40W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N50W TO INLAND OVER
GUYANA IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM O
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 23W.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN. THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS INFLUENCED BY NW AND SE CONFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SW IS
ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO
THE SRN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND WRN COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITHOUT ANY IMPACTS. THE
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ERN CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. As I said this morning,a dry period will be with us in the Eastern Caribbean for most of the week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST SUN JUL 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
REGION AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DISSIPATED
AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS INVADED OUR LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR IS ACCOMPANY BY SAHARAN DUST
WHICH IS PRODUCING HAZY SKIES OVER THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES BY
MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO OF VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID WEEK TO OUR WEST. THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
TE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN CONTROL OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP
THINGS RATHER QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. BERMUDA HIGH PRES WILL
KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
WINDS MID WEEK. SFC WINDS 20G30KT DURING THE DAY AND VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 78 91 / 0 10 30 30
STT 81 88 80 90 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY IN THE LATEST TPW DATA...AND
IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
14N TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO...TO 16N69W TO 12N69W NEAR CURACAO. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W
TO 15N24W IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 13N30W 10N40W
AND 10N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N45W 10N56W AND 9N61W AT
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N28W 10N38W 9N43W...AND
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CENTER IS BECOMING
COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN BECAUSE
IT IS BEING STRETCHED IN AN EAST-TO-WEST DIRECTION.
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...STAYING TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING
COLOMBIA AND CONTINUING SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND AFTERNOON HEATING.A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 72W...FROM
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W...ACROSS 7N78W AT THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...THROUGH 9N83W ALONG THE PANAMA/
COSTA RICA BORDER...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry and hazy weather will prevail in the NE Caribbean today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...
STILL EXPECT HAZY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
THE MODERATE TO FRESH LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...SO ONLY VERY LIMITED PCPN AMOUNTS HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS MORNING. TJSJ 23/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED THAT PWAT HAS DECREASED TO AROUND 1.50
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...GFS COMPUTER
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES WILL DECREASE BELOW 1.5 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISH OVER THE FA ON TUESDAY AND THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES EARLY IN THE MORNING. SFC TO 2K FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT THE SFC
AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 23/12Z. SHRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS SECTIONS OF PR BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THERE IS STILL SAHARAN DUST PRESENT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 10 20 20 30
STT 88 80 90 81 / 10 30 30 40

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity

[Gustywind]

Fair weather conditions continues in most of the East an NE Carib islands! Let's enjoy it even it the drought is persisting in many regions of the Lesser Antilles including Guadeloupe .

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
23N27W TO 15N30W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH A AREA OF DRIER AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 19N16W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 15N27W S OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 10N38W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N46W
10N56W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N62W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
53W-63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN
32W-52W AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 11N
W OF 11W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 76W. MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W ALONG 14N78W TO COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
W OF LINE FROM 20N85W TO 10N80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

[cycloneye]

Fair weather conditions continues in most of the East an NE Carib islands! Let's enjoy it even it the drought is persisting in many regions of the Lesser Antilles including Guadeloupe .


http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Hi Gusty. All is quiet in the tropics now but as August gets closer,things will start picking up east of the islands and by then we have to be very vigilant to see if we are going to have storms or hurricanes comming our way.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...

MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP WITH AXIS FROM 18N55W
TO 12N56W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN
57W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS S OF SAINT LUCIA.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 21N31W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 13N35W
MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N72W TO 12N71W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCTIVE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY AS THE WAVE MOVES WITHIN A REGION OF SAHARAN DUST
...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. THEREFORE...NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU IN
WEST AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 14N22W
12N31W 9N42W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 11N530W TO INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
W OF 20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE MOVING OUT WEST AFRICA COAST FROM 5N-13N E OF 20W.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN AND LESSER
ANTILLES ISLANDS S OF SAINT LUCIA...AS A RECENTLY ADDED TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES OVER THESE GROUP OF ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N E OF 66. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
FAR WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES S OF 19N W OF
81W...ASSOCIATED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EMBEDDED IN
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHOUT ANY IMPACTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SAHARAN DUST ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH FRI
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL DOMINATE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW
TO OUR CARIB WATERS AS IT MOVES WWD. HOWEVER...BLENDED TPW PRODUCT
OVERLAID WITH GFS PWAT FIELDS INDICATES THAT GFS IS OVERDOING THE
MOISTURE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS WAVE. SO IT IS POSSIBLE WILL SEE
LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN WHAT THE GFS IS SUGGESTING.

AFTER TOMORROW...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH
PROB OF SHOWERS REMAINING VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS...THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z
GLOBAL FORECAST ENSEMBLE SYSTEM INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MINIMA
OVER PR AND THE USVI THROUGH 12Z MON JUL 31 SO A VERY QUIET PERIOD
APPEARS IN STORE FOR US. GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO INDICATE LESS
CHANCE OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY WED AND THU WHEN NOTHING MAY DEVELOP
AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 24/12Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4-6 FT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THU AND FRI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 80 90 / 10 10 10 10
STT 82 89 82 89 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

My condolenses to Ron Lightborn of Crown Weather for his family loss.


Monday, July 23, 2012 3:23 pm

by Rob Lightbown

First, this will likely be the only discussion that I write this week. We have had a tragic family death. Meg’s dad passed away very suddenly and unexpectedly this past Friday and our family has been rocked to its core. The funeral is on Wednesday and I hope to be able to start updating regularly again either this weekend or early next week. Your understanding and support is greatly appreciated during this extremely difficult time.

As they say,the show must go on and he discusses about possible development East of the Antilles for 8-9 days away.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


It should be pointed out that the latest GFS model guidance and also to some extent the European model guidance forecasts a tropical disturbance now located near the west coast of Africa to try and develop by late this week or this coming weekend. The track is almost due west to where it is crossing the Leeward Islands right around next Wednesday or so. This disturbance may need to be watched as environmental conditions may be somewhat favorable for development; however, it is still some 9 to 10 days from affecting any land masses (the Lesser Antilles).

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The time is comming for us to start to look to our east as waves start to get robust as the peak of the hurricane season approaches.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REPLACES THIS RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS
ARE 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT.

AT MID LEVELS...AN EAST-WEST RIDGE CONTINUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL IT IS REPLACED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER GROWING NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OUT OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...BUT THE MOISTURE CENTER WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH. A
SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASED OVERNIGHT FROM LESS THAN 1.1
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TO OVER 1.4 INCHES. RADAR SHOWED
INCREASING SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...BUT ALSO MOVING
ALONG AND ONTO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE AXIS OF THE
WAVE APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AT
THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE IN THE MONA PASSAGE BY 25/00Z. BECAUSE
ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...THEREFORE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA AS A WHOLE. A FEW LOCAL AND LIMITED AREAS MAY RECEIVE
ONE TO TWO INCHES. BOTH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NAAPS
MODELS SHOW INCREASING DUST FOLLOWING THE WAVE AND THIS DUST IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...EVEN AS ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONVECTION THROTTLED
TO BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO...BUT SHOULD NOT
ELIMINATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AREA. THE
GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW WAVES ADVANCING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AT
THE PACE OF ONE EVERY 5 TO 5.5 DAYS. THE LAST ONE TO LEAVE AFRICA
ON SUNDAY...HAS BEEN SPINNING UP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GFS AND WILL REACH 40 WEST BY 03/00Z AUGUST 2012 SHOULD THE MODEL
SOLUTION HOLD. AT THIS TIME DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MAKE
ANY DECISIONS. NEVERTHELESS PRELIMINARY ANNUAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE 2012
HURRICANE SEASON SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 24/16Z. SFC TO 2K FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS DURING THE DAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 24/16Z...POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL 24/22Z...BUT REMAINING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING IN BUT
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 22 KNOTS AND 7 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 79 90 80 / 20 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

Fair weather conditions continues in most of the East an NE Carib islands! Let's enjoy it even it the drought is persisting in many regions of the Lesser Antilles including Guadeloupe .


http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Hi Gusty. All is quiet in the tropics now but as August gets closer,things will start picking up east of the islands and by then we have to be very vigilant to see if we are going to have storms or hurricanes comming our way.

You're right and looks the twave exiting Africa has good arguments to may be "something" significant but we're again far away, so let's continue to be vigilant as we're nothing so far from the peak of the hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Here is something to keep an eye on for the next few days as the wave train looks like is starting to roll. From 2 PM discussion.

A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N17W. A WAVE AXIS WILL BE ADDED TO THIS
FEATURE AS MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA BECOME MORE CONCLUSIVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER
THE AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 28W.