Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO STEER EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL REGION. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
PART OF TODAY BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...AN INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL/WEAKEN AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND
SPREADS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING IN A GENERALLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
THEREFORE PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING...WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IF ANY LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL BRING A
RETURN OF THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS LATER TODAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL THEN INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF
PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
TRADE WIND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOW PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
HOWEVER SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OR
TRANSPORT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS WITH VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
GRADUALLY MOVING WEST TO THE USVI AND EASTERN PR BY 11/14Z. PATCH OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASE CLOUDS IN PR AFTER 11/15Z
POSSIBLY CAUSING CIGS AT AROUND FL060 WITH PASSING SHRA CONTINUING.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
GRADUALLY AFTER 11/12Z AT ABOUT 15-20 KT MAINLY FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS OF 17 KNOTS
AND 5 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 72 / 20 10 10 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 20 20 20 30

[Macrocane]

Good morning.
The government of Nicaragua declared red alert in the country because of yesterday earthquake and the aftershocks.
900 homes have been damaged and a person was killed.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=116271&p=2378196#p2378196

[msbee]

I am so sorry to hear that a person died. Earthquakes scare me more than hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE RIDGE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO STEER EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL REGION. A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES HAS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA...AS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE...AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
PROMOTE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING NEXT
WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS AREA BECOMES
INFLUENCE BY A MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND LOWER PRESSURES AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...PASSING -SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVER PR AT
LEAST UNTIL 11/22Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND POSSIBLE VCSH OVER
TJSJ...TJBQ...TJPS AND TJMZ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10
TO 19 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 72 86 / 10 10 30 30
STT 74 86 75 85 / 20 20 30 30

[Macrocane]

And another 6.6 magnitude earthquake has just occurred it was felt in El Salvador and Costa Rica as well:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=116271

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND
AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE UPPER RIDGE...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES THRU AT LEAST EVE. SLIGHTLY HIER MOISTURE
TO ARRIVE LEEWARDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONITE. WIND E 10-20 KT THRU
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 72 86 75 / 10 30 30 10
STT 86 75 85 75 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
826 AM AST SAT APR 12 2014

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

.COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES TODAY.

PRZ014-122000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0006.140412T1300Z-140412T2000Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-
826 AM AST SAT APR 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014.

* 20-FOOT WINDS: AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): AROUND 660.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 9 PERCENT.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: 40 TO 45 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH
RESPECT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES.
AVOID ANY EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR
BRUSH. DO NOT TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW
WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVR THE ERN GMEX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD LATE MON THROUGH THU.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVR THE NERN GMEX WILL
AMPLIFY SEWD ONCE IT CROSSES 70W MON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ERODE
THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS
SUN AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS MON. TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA MON NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABILISHING TUE-THU
UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME DRYING
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG TO COMPLETELY INHIBIT AFTERNOON SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVR WRN PR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS/WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROF AMPLIFIES ALONG 70W. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. OVERALL...PATTERN IS NOT AS DRY AS THIS
WEEK WAS BUT IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET EITHER. EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE
NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK. WINDS STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY TUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARDS TERMINAL
AFTER SUN AFTERNOON. WIND E 10-20 KT THRU SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.


&&
RH`S HAVE RECOVERED SINCE A MIN OF 38% EARLIER AT
CABO ROJO. WILL CANCEL RFW SOONER THAN ITS EXPIRATION TIME. BETTER
HUMIDITIES SUN AND MON. SOME DRYING TUE-THU UNDER BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE MID WEEK MAY RESULT
IN AN ENHANCED/ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON THE SOUTH COAST.
HOWEVER...LIKELIHOOD OF MEETING/REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS SEEMS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 86 75 85 / 0 20 20 20
STT 75 85 75 84 / 0 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND EARLY
IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ERODE EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR TDY BUT MOISTURE GRAD INCR INTO MON. SHRA
GENERALLY ISOLD WI POSBL OBSCD MTN IN AFT. WIND SFC-FL100 E 10-18 KT
WEAKENS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 10
STT 85 74 86 76 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE FL PENINSULA WILL MOVE EWD
NEXT 24 HRS WITH AXIS MOVING E OF PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD TUE-THU THEN WEAKEN AS ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVR THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRYNESS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT/LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THINGS MOISTEN UP SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR
THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LIFTS/WEAKENS TO 700 MB. EXPECT ISOLD/SCT SHRAS MON
AFTERNOON OVR WRN/NWRN PR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS TUE
THROUGH THU. DESPITE RIDGE ALOFT...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY DRYING
AND ONLY A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 600 MB. DIMINISHING
WINDS TUE AND WED WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH
SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVR WRN PR. WINDS STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
STRENGTHENS AND TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT. THIS ALLOWS FOR
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVR ERN PR WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS FRI AND SAT ENHANCING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH T-STORMS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE. OVERALL...PRETTY DECENT
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK BUT NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITE THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ AND TIST AND
TKPK LATER TODAY. WINDS OF AROUND 15-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW 10K FT.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT THRU WED AS WINDS DIMINISH.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH
SEAS BUILDING 7 TO 9 FT FRI. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS
THU AND FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS DIMINISH MON-WED FURTHER REDUCING THE FIRE
RISK. WINDS STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THU AND FRI BUT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO CAUSE ANY FIRE CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 86 76 77 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather is expected today and the rest of this week as troughs move neaby bringing scattered showers to PR and VI but also with periods of sunshine.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WITH A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO THE
NORTH A WEAK TROUGH WILL PULL THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTER IT HAS LOST MOST OF ITS STRENGTH. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE AS
A REX BLOCK FORMS IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. LATER
IN THE WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST AS A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC FORCES ITS WAY OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FADES OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC RECEIVES SOME REINFORCEMENT AND SAGS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID WEEK. GRADIENTS TIGHTEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FALLING ON THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST. MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK AIDED BY A TROUGH PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT.
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS
INCREASES THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK SO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THAT PERIOD. TRADE WINDS WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE NEXT WEEK WHEN THEY BECOME
DISTINCTIVELY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THE DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER ALSO INCREASES AND WOULD EXPECT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
BEGINNING NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME CREATING VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
SCT SHRA AFTER 14/17Z...WILL CREATE MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST WINDS SFC UP TO 10 KFT AT 10 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THURSDAY. SEVEN-
FOOT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND WILL BE
THE RESULT OF LOCALLY HIGHER TRADE WINDS...BUT AS A RESULT...
SOMEWHAT CHOPPIER THAN NORMAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 75 / 30 20 50 30
STT 85 75 85 76 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL AMPLIFY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE BELOW NORMAL ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT...HAS
LIMITED THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODERATE SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PR...PRODUCING SOME TCU CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH THESE
SHOWERS INTO THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK. SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWED
BY A ROUND OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DESTABILIZE
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS THRU 21Z. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL120.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 85 75 / 30 20 20 30
STT 85 75 86 76 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN A MUCH WEAKENED
CONDITION. THE NEXT MINOR TROUGH WILL BE ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW SITS ABOUT 560 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN AND WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA
BY THE WEEKEND. A MINOR TROUGH PASSES ON MONDAY MORNING.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND THESE WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW PASSING CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS BROUGHT BRIEF
SHOWERS TO THOSE ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
MOST WERE STILL ABLE TO SEE THE TOTAL ECLIPSE OF THE MOON NOW
LEAVING THE PENUMBRAL SHADOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO RISE...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF BUT DEEP DIP ON FRIDAY WITH
A RECOVERY TO THE ORIGINAL TREND BY MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY...AS A
TROUGH INVADES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE ABLE TO BRING UP A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE. THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING TO
ALMOST 1.9 INCHES BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALSO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST BY TWO TO FOUR DEGREES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE IN THE PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTS AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. RAIN PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE
A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT MOVE TOWARD WETTER CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY PLAY MINOR ROLES IN
ENHANCING THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA OVER TKPK AND TNCM ARE
EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL 15/16Z. VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH VCSH
AROUND TIST AND TISX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 15/15Z-21Z
SHRA WILL CREATE MVFR CIGS AND OBSCD MTN OVER WESTERN PR AFFECTING
TJMZ. EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE AT A MINIMUM FOR THE TIME BEING AND ARE BELOW 5
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND BELOW 4 FEET IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RISE WITH THE WINDS THROUGH 19
APRIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 FEET BY FRIDAY AND PEAK IN BOTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY. PERIODS DURING THE
HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE ABOUT 8 TO 9 SECONDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 75 / 10 30 30 50
STT 84 75 85 76 / 20 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD TO THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THEN...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC DESTABILIZE OUR
ATMOSPHERE...PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL START TO DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH...OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...NO SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...
SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...A
WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL
OTHER SITES. LLVL WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST BELOW 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY GENERATE RIP CURRENTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST FACING COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 84 / 20 20 50 50
STT 75 85 76 87 / 30 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today. Moisture increases bigtime after next Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE
BY ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE UP COMING
WEEK AS A MUCH SHARPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD. A TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE
WORK WEEK BUT RE-STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND...EDGING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND TOMORROW...DIPS ON
FRIDAY...BUT RECOVERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO INCREASE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS BROUGHT MINIMAL...BUT MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO AREAS OF THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT CROIX. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY
AND...WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE...ADJUNTAS DID HAVE ONE REPORT OF ALMOST TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY NOT FALL IN THE SAME PLACES. MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN THEN. MOISTURE DIPS ON FRIDAY AND THE MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. FRIDAY
ALSO MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL BE COMPLETE BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BY WHICH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN. THE
GFS MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT BY WEDNESDAY A VERY MOIST SOUNDING
WILL BE FOUND WITH FEW PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDING LESS THAN 70
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS TRANSITION BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL
USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND EXPECT
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GALVEZ-DAVIDSON INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF THIS HEIGHTENED ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCAL FLOODING IN THE AREA...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEWLY MOIST
PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16/15Z
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK. AFT 16/15Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS W PR
AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL EAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT BELOW 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AT
PRESENT...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE. LATEST WAVE WATCH STILL SUGGESTS 7 TO
8 FOOT SEAS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHOULD
LATER MODELS CONFIRM...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. GFS
IS ALSO FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND
HENCE IS LIKELY TO ALSO BE FORECASTING EXAGGERATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 30 50 50 50
STT 84 75 85 76 / 30 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS
STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THU
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDY AND WET TONIGHT IN WINDWARD AND HIGHER ELEVS.
DRYING INDICATED THROUGH THE DAY FRI AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
PER LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WHICH SHOWS DRYER AIR UPSTREAM
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ERODING BY
MONDAY AS INFLOW OF SRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
RESULTS IN MOISTURE DEEPENING AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY
WITH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND NOW INDICATE LESSER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN LOW LVL CLD WILL CONT WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA BTW THE NRN LEEWARDS AND PR WITH EMBEDDED PASSING -SHRA/SHRA
AND FEW TCU. EXPECT BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES
TIL AT LEAST 18/22Z. PRD OF MVFR IN SHRA/LOW CIG WITH SFC WND GUST
UP TO 26 KTS WILL REMAIN PSBL MAINLY WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS. BRIEF
MTN TOP OBSC WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTN RANGE TIL
17/22Z. LOW LEVEL WNDS MAINLY FM E AT 15-20 KTS BLO FL150...BCMG FM
N-NW AND INCR W/HT ABV TO MAX WND OF AROUND 60 KTS NR FL400. FM
18/03Z-18/12Z ANOTHER SURGE OF SCT-BKN L/LVL CLDS W/EMBEDDED
ISOLD-SCT SHRA IS FCST TO AFFECT PARTS OF ERN PR...TJSJ...TISX AND
TIST.

&&

.MARINE...EAST WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN ATLC WATERS. BELIEVE SEAS WILL BE MORE LIKE
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE BUT WILL KEEP 6-8 FT FOR CONTINUITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 85 76 85 / 60 60 40 40
STT 77 85 77 86 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE 2600 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. HIGH
PRESSURE SITS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND PULL BACK INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
MONDAY. A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY FROM A
STRONG LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AT 40 DEGREES NORTH.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY
AND TURN FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE OUT OF THE TROPICS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS VISITED MOST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE NORTH COAST FROM LUQUILLO TO
BARCELONETA. AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT 12-HOUR RAINFALL
REACHED 1.13 INCHES AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT OVERNIGHT AND
THE EASTERN FLANKS OF EL YUNQUE AND RIDGES OF MAUNABO LIKELY HAD
MORE THAN THAT ACCORDING TO NWS DOPPLER RADAR. INFRA RED IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE MOISTURE IS BANDED AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TODAY...EVEN WHILE GENERALLY DECREASING. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS FROM 1.6 INCHES TO AS LITTLE AS 1.2
INCHES BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT TO HAVE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RECEDES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND FLOW
OVER THE AREA TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BEGINNING MONDAY...MORE AND MORE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 1.8 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND NEARLY 2 INCHES ON
THURSDAY. CONSEQUENTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND SOMEWHAT...BUT MORE SO ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN SOME AREAS THIS RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES AFTER THURSDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY WEAK. MOISTURE DEPTH IMPROVES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPROVES SOMEWHAT.

WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING ON THE NORTH
COAST. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...BUT
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE USUAL DOWN-SLOPE WARMING THAT
THE NORTH COAST EXPERIENCES WITH SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK TIL AT LEAST
18/14Z. IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR. EAST WINDS OF 15-25 KT GUSTING TO
25-30KT ARE EXPECT TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR NEARLY ALL
ZONES TODAY. WINDS IN SOME AREAS WILL REACH UP TO 24 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL PREVAIL WITH PERIODS AROUND 10 SECONDS.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WE ARE LOOKING FOR
SEAS TO BE LESS THAN 6 FEET EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY. HIGH SEAS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 86 76 / 60 40 60 40
STT 85 76 86 77 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVED FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO OUR LOCAL AREA...LIMITING SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERS SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A WETTEST SCENARIO FOR NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE U.S EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LVL CLD LYRS MOVG QUICKLY
ACROSS RGN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA AND FEW TCU NOW
MAINLY ACROSS OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
MOST OF CLOUDINESS BLO FL150 WITH PREVAILING WNDS FM E AT 15-25
KTS...BCMG FM N-NW AND INCR W/HT TO MAX WND NR 60 KTS AROUND FL450.
BREEZY CONDS AND OCNL SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS OR SO WILL
REMAIN PSBL AT ALL LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST 18/22Z...ESPECIALLY
ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO
LIKELY W/PASSING SHRA IN AND AROUND CENTRAL MTN RANGE OR PR. NO
OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
WINDS GUSTS UP TO AS MUCH AS 27 KNOTS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS ACCOMPANYING PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND
PASSAGES EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO WHERE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 76 87 / 40 60 40 40
STT 76 86 77 86 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE AFFECTING THE NORTH AN EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL
BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT TODAY IS GOING TO BE
THE WETTEST DAY.

FOR MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING A WETTEST SCENARIO...AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
IN ADDITION...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT THE U.S EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...WHICH WILL ENHANCE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED PASSING SHRA
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FLYING AREA TODAY. AS A
RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
TJSJ...TIST... TISX...TNCM AND TKPK UNTIL AT LEAST 19/14Z. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 19/16Z. LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-25
KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
WINDS GUSTS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ACCOMPANYING PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
STILL EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 40 40 40 40
STT 85 75 86 77 / 50 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE RISING A LITTLE AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
LURKING OFFSHORE FROM USVI TO LEEWARDS. BUT OF LATE THE SHOWERS
HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE IN INTENSITY WITH SOME WIND DOWNBURSTS BUT
FEWER IN NUMBER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...BASICALLY BRIEF
SHOWERS THOUGH A FEW PROVIDE A WIND GUST AND A BURST OF RAIN. LEFT
THE THREAT OF THUNDER FOR WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING THERE...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE MOVING QUICKLY.

DRYING TREND SET FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY THOUGH A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL100 WITH EMBEDDED SHRA/SHRA
AND FEW TCU MOV WNW APPROX 12KTS ACROSS RGN MOSTLY EN ROUTE BTW PR
AND NRN LEEWARDS. BRIEF PRD OF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND VCTY MOST TAF SITES DURG REST OF PM TIL AT LEAST 19/22Z.
MTN OBSCR WILL REMAIN PSBL OVR PARTS OF THE ERN AND CTRL MTN RANGE
AND ALSO OVR WRN PR MOSTLY DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING SHRA.
LLVL WINDS FM ESE AT 15-25 KTS BLO FL120. BRIEF SFC WND GUSTS BTW
25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY WITH PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING A LITTLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS MOVE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL HELP PROTECT PR/USVI FROM SHORT FETCH
SWELLS DOWNSTREAM FROM LESSER ANTILLES. SO DECREASING WINDS/SEAS
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 73 86 / 60 40 20 40
STT 77 80 76 87 / 50 30 30 50