Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 302351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N36W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 9N36W. THE
WAVE/LOW IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY LOW
AMPLITUDE WITH A WEAK SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.
HOWEVER...AN ANALYSIS OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SHOWS A CLEARING
IN THE WIDESPREAD DUST NEAR THE WAVE AXIS INDICATING ITS
PRESENCE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE LOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 21N62W
TO 11N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 59W-67W COVERING MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICAN AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N82W TO 10N84W TRAVELING W AT 20-25 KT. THE
WAVE ALIGNS WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO IS MOVING UNDERNEATH
AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 84W-88W ACROSS MUCH OF HONDURAS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS TO
THE S ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY IS MORE TIED TO THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH. IT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 15N17W OVER ATLC WATERS ALONG 10N28W 11N32W TO A 1009
MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE AT 9N36W TO 8N48W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
AT 8N48W CONTINUING TO 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 18W-22W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
41W-49W.

[Gustywind]

Discussion of 99L by Rob of Crown Weather:


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

By Rob Lightbown


Now, I am closely watching an area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center, located about 900 miles to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery this afternoon showed some fairly disorganized shower/thunderstorm activity, however, it seems that the convection is very slowly increasing and this is a system that will need to be watched over the next few days. Why is that? Because wind shear values are forecast to remain light enough and the atmosphere is forecast to be moist enough to allow for development to occur. Additionally, the track of Invest 99L potentially brings it into the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands, as well as across Barbados by very late Friday or during Saturday.

The latest model guidance points to a slightly north of due west track this week with the GFS model forecasting modest intensification to perhaps a tropical storm while the European model forecasts very little development. The Canadian model seems to be the most aggressive forecasting 99L to intensify into a hurricane by Thursday into Friday and turn northwestward raking much of the Leeward Islands with hurricane conditions by Friday night and Saturday and then tracking towards the southeastern Bahamas by Sunday.

It is of my opinion that the Canadian model is too aggressive with the intensification while the European model is not aggressive enough given the favorable environmental conditions ahead of 99L over the next few days. My thinking right now is for slow development and intensification to Tropical Storm strength by as early as Friday. I do think that the southern Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands and Barbados will be first-in-line for future Tropical Storm Ernesto with tropical storm conditions possible as early as Friday afternoon across these areas.

Now, beyond the Leeward and Windward Islands, I think that the ridge of high pressure will be strong enough to keep Ernesto to be on a west-northwest track into the Caribbean by Sunday and Monday. Should the European model be correct and this system does not develop at all, then a eventual track into Central America could occur in about 10 days from now. Now, if Invest 99L does develop slowly and steadily, then a more northwesterly track towards Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic could materialize by next week.

So, as I have already mentioned, I think a slow, but steady intensification seems most probable with 99L possibly becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday or early Thursday and then possibly a tropical storm by Friday with tropical storm conditions possible across Barbados, the southern Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands as early as Friday afternoon.

Needless to say, I am monitoring Invest 99L very closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest."

Very interresting one Cycloneye, a good way to keep an eye on what could happened in the next couple of days...

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Loop

[FireBird]

So, with a gorgeous atypical sunny day yesterday, my spidey senses got going. Weather like that always sends the alarm bells ringing as to what's brewing out in the Atlantic. So lo and behold, I check this thing out last night, and between then and now, my senses are really beginning to spike.
We all definitely need to monitor this the next few days..

[Gustywind]

From the Weather Channel

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Jul 31, 2012 1:13 am ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

ATLANTIC

- The strong tropical wave we've been tracking for many days is moving across the northeast Caribbean islands on schedule with locally heavy rain and gusty winds. A flash flood watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

- Farther out in the Atlantic, a portion of the "monsoon trough" continues to show rotation and organization. This system has the potential to gain sufficient structure to become a tropical cyclone during the next few days, as it traverses the Atlantic far enough south to avoid the most hostile atmospheric conditions and moves on a track far enough away from the equator for it to spin up. It is headed toward the Lesser Antilles by the end of the week or first part of the weekend.

[Gustywind]

To give an idea about the strenght of the twave who affected us yesterday, more than 20,000 customers have been deprived of electricity during 1 hour approximately. This incident was due to a high impact of a strong thunderstorm who bombed. Hopefully, things have really improve since this morning:).
Hope that all is ok in PR,Cycloneye . Keep us informed as usual.

[Gustywind]

Discussion of 99L by Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Invest 99L Slowly Becoming More Organized & May Develop Into Tropical Storm Ernesto & Affect Barbados, The Southern Leeward Islands & The Windward Islands On Saturday

Tuesday, July 31, 2012 5:55 am

by Rob Lightbown

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 99L, which is an area of low pressure, is located about 1200 miles or so to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands this morning. The latest satellite loops indicate that this disturbance is gradually becoming more organized as deeper thunderstorm activity seems to be firing near the low pressure system. I do think that we will see 99L continue to slowly develop over the coming days and I do think that we will see it become a tropical depression on Wednesday and then strengthen into Tropical Storm Ernesto as early as late Thursday.

Looking at the forecast guidance this morning: The GFS model seems to have backed off some on how much this system will develop in the coming days. It does forecast 99L to become a low-end tropical storm before it tracks across the Leeward and Windward Islands on Friday, but then forecasts it to fall apart as the low-level center outruns the mid and upper level center due to strong trade winds in the Caribbean.

The latest European model forecasts that 99L will develop into a tropical storm before affecting the southern Leeward Islands, the Windward Islands and Barbados during the day Friday. After that, the European model forecasts that this system will fall apart due to the aforementioned strong trade winds in the Caribbean. It should be noted that the 10 day European model forecast, valid for August 9th forecasts some reorganization and development of this system once it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The Canadian model continues to be the most aggressive and forecasts 99L to become a hurricane before it affects the northern Leeward Islands by Friday and forecasts this system to approach the Bahamas by late this weekend. The longer range Canadian model forecasts this system to affect the east coast of Florida right around next Wednesday and next Thursday. At this point, the Canadian model is the odd-man out and will be disregarded for now, however, as we saw with Debby and the correct forecast by the GFS model (also the odd-man out at the time), you can never rule out any one model forecast.

At this point looking at all of the environmental factors and weighing in the latest forecast guidance and the most recent satellite imagery, I think that we will see development into a tropical depression during the day Wednesday and then intensify into a tropical storm by later Thursday afternoon or during the night Thursday night. I currently expect that this system will track very near the island of Barbados on Saturday morning as a tropical storm and then affect the southern Leeward Island and the Windward Islands during Saturday afternoon with tropical storm conditions, including strong winds with gusts to 50 mph, heavy rainfall and rough seas.

Beyond that, the future of this system becomes very murky as strong trade winds in the Caribbean may cause future Ernesto to fall apart very quickly and dissipate. So, at this point, we should concentrate on the fact that we do have a slowly organizing tropical disturbance that has a fairly good chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next few days.

I am monitoring Invest 99L closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
637 AM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. AS OF 500 AM
AST...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
SOME AFFECTING THE U.S.V.I AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
MAINTAINING ACTIVE WEATHER. THEREFORE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES...THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...A DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATED PW VALUES
WILL DROP FROM 2.3 INCHES TODAY...TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL
FAVOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

BY SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 40
WEST...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...INCREASING
THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WAVE
WILL DEVELOP IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPCT THIS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND BRIEFLY AFFECT TISX AND TIST
DURG REST OF AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS PR...TJSJ...TJNR AND THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES. SFC WND GUST OF 25-35 KTS OR HIGHER WILL BE
LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY ACCOMPANYING THE
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS.


&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...MAINTAINING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 79 / 60 40 40 40
STT 87 78 87 80 / 60 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

It was a rainy and with plenty of thunder night in PR but no big flooding occured.Let's see what occurs today and I will keep all informed.

[Gustywind]

Again, 5300 customers are deprived of electricity. Given the journalists, looks like a fire has occured (due to a strong thunderstorm falling on) at Capesterre... a post who alivate the electricity. Damages have been reported on this post .

[Gustywind]

It was a rainy and with plenty of thunder night in PR but no big flooding occured.Let's see what occurs today and I will keep all informed.

Glad to see that, thanks to you Cycloneye. Rain is back here, nothing too bad i suppose looking at the windows of my house. Whereas, we should deal with episodes of showers but not as strong from those of yesterday as the twave has moved away.

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

shout out to all my Caribbean and SA friends
hope you are staying dry.
I heard there has been a lot of rain at home, but haven't heard of any serious flooding.
I am in Europe..will be home Friday, maybe just in time for Ernesto?

[cycloneye]

shout out to all my Caribbean and SA friends
hope you are staying dry.
I heard there has been a lot of rain at home, but haven't heard of any serious flooding.
I am in Europe..will be home Friday, maybe just in time for Ernesto?

Have a safe travel to home. Let's see what possible future Ernesto does by the time you arrive.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

VIDEO. Lightning hits an EDF position: always 9OO private electricity homes

by Boris COLOMBET / Photo Sylvère Selbonne franceantilles.fr31.07.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180364.php

This time it is not rain but the lightning who posed the biggest problems in the transition from the tropical wave on Guadeloupe, yesterday evening. "It said the end of the world", bear witness to the inhabitants of Capesterre-Belle-Eau where a violent fire took in the position of transformation EDF. Immediate consequence of this incident: 20,000 homes deprived of electricity.

This time it is not rain but lightning that posed the biggest problems during the passage of the tropical wave on Guadeloupe. Yesterday evening from 19 h, electric activity was so intense on Capesterre-Belle-Eau, that many people have felt "to be as in daylight for at least 5 minutes." "It was the end of the world" the moment after the lightning shot with force on various sectors, reaching even to melt the bitumen and especially to cause a severe fire in the present transformation EDF position in this commune. Immediate consequence of this incident: 20 000 households private electricity in a wide zone of the Basse-Terre from Petit-Bourg to Trois-Rivières and that mainly affected guava as well as Capesterre-Belle-Eau. As Marie-Galante, also has found no current, the cable electric submarine which precisely Capesterre being put in default because of the fire, explained yesterday morning Patrick Pognon, responsible for the electrical network in EDF Islands Guadeloupe.
And explain: "site that was hit is a very important transformation that distributes energy other distribution positions." It's a kind of artery. It must be borne in mind that we do not remain idle: generators are currently deployed on the network. We are also trying to rehydrate the affected area based on the positions of Baie-Mahault, rivers-meaning and Jarry. But this requires unfortunately of the time since you must isolate the position of Capesterre from the rest of the network and manage electric transits. »

Call to civic responsibility

Late morning, some 900 homes, "clearly identified", were still without power. For them, "a gradual return to normal is planned for the end of the day", hoped to EDF. It prevents: currently work will not great miracles. "Our network will remain on a degraded operating mode." We therefore call civic customers asking them to reduce their power consumption to not seek our networks and thus avoid new cuts. »
Meanwhile, Yves Ramassamy, the first Deputy of the Mayor of Capesterre, attempted to face in preparing to the most pressing: "the municipality is in direct link with the epic EDF to follow the evolution of the situation." We believe currently and in priority to those who could were found in medical trouble following these cuts, and ask them to make themselves known in town hall so that we can intervene as quickly as possible. »

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL AS TOMORROW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...LEAVING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.

CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWEST...REACHING THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE MAY DESTABILIZE
SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO EXPECT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AS WELL AS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH AT LEAST 01/02Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJPS AND POSSIBLY
TJMZ AND TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH EAST
AT 10-20 KTS FROM SFC TO 20 KFT. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME +TSRA. CONDS IMPROVE SLOWLY AFT 01/02Z BUT
ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH AFT 01/10Z.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEST TOMORROW MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 79 90 / 70 40 20 20
STT 78 87 80 90 / 60 50 30 20

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

8 PM Discussion.

SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N40W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW AT
10N41W. THE WAVE/LOW IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS
FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE ALIGNING WITH AN EQUALLY LOW AMPLITUDE
SURGE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...AN ANALYSIS OF THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLEARING IN THE WIDESPREAD
DUST NEAR THE WAVE AXIS INDICATING ITS PRESENCE. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AROUND THE LOW CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE SYSTEM
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 41W-46W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.