Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST TUE OCT 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN A SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER
LAND ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT MOST OF THEM HAD DISSIPATED
QUICKLY. WET TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-MORNING.

A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS AND A MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH MOST SHOWERS DRIVEN BY
OROGRAPHIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF THE ISLANDS DURING
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY MID WEEK...AS AN INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SEA BREEZE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA TO CONT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR EASTERN PR
COASTS...ISLANDS FARTHER EAST...AND COASTAL WATERS. SHRA BCMG ISOLD
BY NOON OVER THE WATERS WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR PR.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN INTERIOR PR AND NEAR
TJMZ. WINDS BLO 5 KFT EAST 15-20 KT WITH 5-10 KT 5 KFT TO 15 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 30 10 10 10
STT 87 77 88 78 / 30 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST TUE OCT 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. A MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS AN INDUCED PERTURBATION MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW...ENHANCING SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT BELOW 2 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE IS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE
59.4 WEST. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO PASS FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN PR...INCLUDING TJMZ
THROUGH ABOUT 04/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 77 / 30 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST WED OCT 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL COMBINE WITH AN
OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION...EXPECT OVERALL GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND PROBABLY
SATURDAY ALSO. HOWEVER...SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE
EACH DAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED...DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION. MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA WILL CONT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. SHRA BCMG
ISOLD AFT 14Z OVER THE WATERS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
INTERIOR AND NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 77 87 79 / 20 40 40 20

[Gustywind]

Loop of the tropical activity...

[Macrocane]

Hi! October has begun and for Central America it means the last month of the rainy season and the first month of the cool season as the first cold fronts and northerly winds reach the region by the end of the month. On these first few days we have had very rainy days with warmer than normal lows and nearn normal highs for this time of year. These are the temps registered yesterday:

-Warmer than normal lows were registered in most of the region, only in Belize and Panama the lows were near normal.
-Warmer than normal highs were experienced in El Salvador, cooler than normal highs in Panama and near normal in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 11.6°C (52.9°F) Warmest since August 2
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.9°C (55.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18°C (64°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23°C (73°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5°C (41°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.4°C (56.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26°C (79°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31°C (88°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14°C (57°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.7°C (67.5°F)

[Macrocane]

In El Salvador the rainfall in the first 4 days of October 2011 has been higher than the rainfall registered in the whole month of October 2010, last year's Ocober was the 2nd driest on record. These are some rainfall amounts registered on October 2011 so far, compared with the rainfall on October 2010.

Acajutla (west coast)
Oct 2010: 3.4 mm/0.13 inch
Oct 2011: 56.1 mm/2.20 inches

Santa Ana (western El Salvador)
Oct 2010: 32.2 mm/1.27 inches
Oct 2011: 106.9 mm/4.21 inches

Santa Salvador (central El Salvador)
Oct 2010: 39.2 mm/1.54 inches
Oct 2011: 49.8 mm/1.96 inches

Las Pilas (north-central mountains)
Oct 2010: 13.4 mm/0.53 inch
Oct 2011: 48.2 mm/1.90 inches

Perquin (northeast mountains)
Oct 2010: 97.4 mm/3.83 inches
Oct 2011: 110.5 mm/4.35 inches

By the way, the models have been predicting a very rainy period for Central America starting late next week because of the enhanced phase of the MJO, if they verify it will be a very dangerous situation for Central America.

[cycloneye]

By the way, the models have been predicting a very rainy period for Central America starting late next week because of the enhanced phase of the MJO, if they verify it will be a very dangerous situation for Central America.

That is right. And that period may include one of two tropical developments near CA on the Caribbean side later this month and threats from systems forming in the EPAC side. Right now there are two invests that are forecast to develop and the models move them towards land down the road.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST WED OCT 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS IS EVIDENT IN SATELITE
IMAGES AS WELL IN LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING...WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER CAME WITH VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
AT THE SURFACE BROUGHT WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE...WHICH COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA...AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED A EVEN DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN COMPUTER
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS AN STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BRINGS
WITH IT MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. OVERALL...AT THIS MOMENT
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FW ISOLD SHRA...TSRA THIS AFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST
INTERIOR PR NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ...MAY CAUSE BRIEF PDS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO REGION. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
10-15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 88 78 88 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another good day weatherwise here except for the usual afternoon showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST THU OCT 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL COMBINE WITH
AN AIR MASS THAT WILL BECOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE...TO PRODUCE A
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION...EXPECT OVERALL GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA...BUT PARTICULARLY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND PROBABLY SUNDAY TOO. HOWEVER...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE EACH
DAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED...DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION. LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS STILL INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT NOW EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONT TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS PSBL NEAR TJPS...TIST AND
TISX THRU 14Z. SHWR ACTIVITY BCMG ISOLD AFT 14Z OVER THE WATERS...
BUT INCREASING BTWN 16Z-22Z OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS
OF PR. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 88 77 88 78 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST THU OCT 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL COMBINE WITH
AN AIR MASS THAT WILL BECOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE...TO PRODUCE A
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE DOPPLER RADAR ONLY REPORTED
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNSET...A FEW COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION... GENERATING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TEMPO
TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 06/18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOY 41048 IS ALREADY SHOWING SEAS OF AROUND 8
FEET...THESE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS MOMENT SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL
WITH SEAS AT AROUND 3 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 88 79 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It looks like a good weekend weatherwise.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST FRI OCT 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING.
IN FACT...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN INCREASE ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS
FORESEEN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TOO SLIM TO MENTION ANY THUNDER. WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DUE TO SEA
BREEZE. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS THE ATLC REACHING
OUR LOCAL WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT POSSIBLY UP
TO 8 FT. SWELLS WILL PEAK SUN-SUN NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MON.
SCA FOR ALL ATLC WATERS AND CARIB PASSAGES LIKELY TO BE NEEDED LATER
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 78 / 10 0 20 20
STT 88 78 88 78 / 0 10 20 20

[Macrocane]

Hi! The models are still predicting several days of heavy rain in Central America starting on Sunday or Monday, it seems that there will be several lows and a few tropical cyclones affecting directly or indirectly the region. The meteorological services have not mentioned this situation yet but I will keep you updated with all the info I can.

[cycloneye]

Macrocane,the models are more agressive with 99E and now they forecast development at least into a moderate Tropical Storm. Hopefully,this does not go to Central America,but all the models go that way.Keep us informed about news from the weather service and authorities over there.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC FRI OCT 7 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992011) 20111007 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111007  1800   111008  0600   111008  1800   111009  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  95.0W   11.1N  96.0W   11.1N  96.7W   11.3N  97.1W
BAMD    11.0N  95.0W   10.8N  96.0W   10.6N  96.7W   10.4N  97.4W
BAMM    11.0N  95.0W   11.1N  95.9W   11.1N  96.5W   11.1N  97.0W
LBAR    11.0N  95.0W   11.1N  95.5W   11.3N  95.9W   11.5N  96.2W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111009  1800   111010  1800   111011  1800   111012  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.6N  97.2W   13.3N  96.4W   15.0N  94.6W   17.3N  93.8W
BAMD    10.2N  97.9W    9.8N  99.0W    8.5N 100.5W    7.2N 102.2W
BAMM    11.2N  97.1W   12.2N  96.9W   12.7N  95.6W   14.0N  94.4W
LBAR    12.0N  96.5W   13.9N  97.5W   16.6N  99.0W   20.8N 100.2W
SHIP        46KTS          50KTS          51KTS          50KTS
DSHP        46KTS          50KTS          51KTS          50KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  95.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  10.5N LONM12 =  93.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =   9.7N LONM24 =  91.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST FRI OCT 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A MID UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM EL YUNQUE TO SAN JUAN ALSO
FORMED. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THEN MOVE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD A
RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN IS TO SUSTAIN
A CAP ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LIMITING
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...AFT 07/22Z VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 08/17Z. A LGT WND FLOW FM ESE WILL PREVAIL BLO 15K FT OF 10 KTS
OR LESS...BCMG SW-W ABV. NO SIG FLYING HAZARDS EXPECTED BTW PR AND
NRN LEEWARDS DURG OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXCEPT FOR FEW TO ISOLD LOW
LEVEL CLDS AND PASSING TCU/SHRA EN ROUTE. AFT 08/17Z ISOLD TSRA
EXPECTED WITH TOPS TO 40 KFT OVER INTERIOR PR AND MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE VCNTY TJMZ TIL 08/21Z. SCT MTN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS THE ATLC REACHING
OUR LOCAL WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT POSSIBLY UP
TO 8 FT. SWELLS WILL PEAK SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
EVENING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 78 / 10 0 20 20
STT 88 78 88 78 / 0 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Great weather continues for the weekend,except for the usual afternoon showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND KEEP A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS STILL
EXPECTED EACH DAY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA SAT-SUN. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSRA AT JBQ TODAY WITH CHANCES
OF CONVECTION DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER TODAY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE THEN BCMNG LIGHT/VRB AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS AS WELL AS ALL PASSAGES TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET. SWELLS WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FROM
LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 20 0 20 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 10 20 20

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT TWO:

Up to 70%

A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 940 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

WELL-ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR
MASS DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL REGION LIMITING
THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFTED TOWARD A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THEREFORE EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 08/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS ALL PASSAGES TONIGHT...WITH SEAS
BUILDING BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET. SWELLS WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 76 87 / 10 20 20 20
STT 78 88 77 88 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
953 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2011

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED FEW
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WHILE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED ACROSS THE WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO HAD MOVED OFF OR DISSIPATED BY LATE
EVENING. FEW PASSING SHOWERS HOWEVER STILL AFFECTED PARTS OF THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS VIEQUES
AND SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY HOWEVER WERE
SHORT LIVED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR.

LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING AND SAT DERIVED MIMIC TPW PRODUCT...AS WELL
AS GPS DERIVED MET DATA SHOWED PRECIPITABLE TO BE NEAR 2.00 INCHES
OR SO THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE FORECAST
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE
TO 1.70 INCHES OR LESS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STILL HOWEVER EXPECTED
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MARINE WISE...LATEST DATA FROM SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BUOY 41043
INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS NOW NEAR 8.5 FT...WITH 11 SECONDS
NORTHERLY SWELLS NOW PULSING BETWEEN 7 TO 7.5 FEET OR SO.
THEREFORE STILL EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE LOCAL PASSAGES DURING THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TIST...TISX OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST 09/12Z. LATEST 09/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 15K FEET.