Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES. HOWEVER LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED OR DETECTED OVER THE LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRUSH
THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY STILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND QUICK PASSING DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADES AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES PREVAILING
AND LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NOT INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 27/14Z. SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT
FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 27/18Z WITH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41043 SUGGEST SEAS NOW AROUND
7 FEET AROUND 9 SECONDS AS THE EASTERLY TRADE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE... THE LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOY 41053 SUGGEST SEAS
BETWEEN 3-4 FEET. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UP TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 89 75 / 30 30 30 10
STT 86 75 86 75 / 30 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGH BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE
ACROSS THE ATLC. RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BENEATH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY TUE AND WED
WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE. SOME DRYING EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 27/22Z IN
AND AROUND JBQ/JMZ. SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 27/22Z BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 75 88 / 0 0 10 10
STT 76 86 75 85 / 0 0 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS AS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER
THE REGION. THUS...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE MODEL CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION.
SOME DRYING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN CIG/SHRA FROM 28/18Z TO 28/22Z IN
AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ. SFC WINDS TIL 28/12Z EAST LESS THAN 10 KTS...
AFT 28/14Z...MAINLY FM E AT 10-15 KT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. L/LVL WNDS ESE UP TO 25 KNOTS BLO
FL100...BCMG FM N AND DECR W/HT UP TO FL250...THEN FM NW AND INCR
W/H TO MAX WND AROUND 45 KTS NR FL400.NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. HOWEVER OCASSIONALLY SEAS WILL REACH UP TO 8
FEET FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 74 88 75 / 0 10 10 10
STT 86 75 85 74 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK THEN COLLAPSE NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALBEIT WEAKER. MOISTURE SURGES MID AND ESPECIALLY
LATE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE SUCCUMBS DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS/AMPLIFLYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. POTENTIALLY
SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT SATURDAY AND PROBABLY THE MOST RAIN WE`VE SEEN
IN QUITE SOME TIME. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MENTION OF T-STORMS MID
AND LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. FAIR WX IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 75 86 / 10 10 10 10
STT 75 85 74 85 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...FOR
TODAY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE
TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA PSBL FM 29/18-29/22Z OVR AND VCTY TJMZ/TJBQ...
WITH SLIGHT CHC OF FEW VCSH AT TJNR AND OVR E INTERIOR OF PR TIL
29/21Z. SFC WND LGT AND VARIABLE TIL 29/14Z...WITH LCL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. L/LVL WND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 5-15 KNOTS...
BCMG LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL250. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FFET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATETRS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 86 75 / 10 10 10 10
STT 86 73 84 73 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
FLAT RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS WED UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND WEAKENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
SURGES THU INTO SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
IT SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY
AS H5 TEMPS COOL TO -9C AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-KT 250 MB JET STREAK.
SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
TOO DRY FOR ANY SIG FLOODING. WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMROVE NEXT
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA...MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS.
VRBL WIND BLO FL100 UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS STRENGTHEN UP
TO 20 KT THU AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 87 / 10 10 10 20
STT 73 84 73 84 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...BY LOCATION OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS SOUTH OF WESTERN PR
LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FOCUSSED THERE WHILE MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST HEATING HAS BEEN (WEST PR).
STILL...DO NOT EXPECT ESPECIALLY INTENSE RAINFALL SINCE THE
MOISTURE BARELY EXTENDS TO 700 MB...HAVING TO BREAK THE REMAINING
CAP BUT ONLY ENCOUNTERING VERY DRY AIR TO ENTRAIN.

DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT. ENOUGH HEATING EXPECTED TUE
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PR BUT MUCH BETTER
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE WED ISLANDWIDE AND EVEN EXTENDING BACK TO USVI
UNTIL LATE AFTERNON. SO RAISED POPS A LITTLE EVEN MORE THAN THE
LIKELY WE HAD. GRIDS OTHERWISE WERE PRETTY SOLID AND CHANGED
LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA INCR IN CNTRL/W PR BUT WL BEGIN TO DECR AGAIN ABOUT
21Z-22Z. TJMZ MAY HV PDS MVFR AND MTN OBSC SPCLY WEST AND CNTRL
PR. ELSEWHERE ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT MOST TO CAUSE ISOLD MVFR. WIND AOB
FL100 E 8-18 KT TONITE THEN ESE TUE. WDSPRD SHRA IN WEST AND
THUNDER MIGHT BE POSBL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN SHORT TERM.
MODELS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DECAYING FRONT
NORTH OF 30N. THE RESULTANT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERATE SWELL
TARGETING HISPANIOLA AND BAHAMAS...WITH NO 6 FOOT SEAS REACHING
PR/USVI AREA UNTIL AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 88 / 10 10 30 40
STT 73 85 74 84 / 10 10 30 40

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK JET NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SAG OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH
PASSAGE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SLOWLY
FADING IN INTENSITY.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A CUT-
OFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AFTERWARD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM A CENTER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURES MIGRATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GENERAL
RIDGELINE SHIFTS NORTH AS THEY DO. LOCAL TRADE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST FRIDAY AND DURING THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO A
LIMITED EXTENT BUT DID NOT BEGIN ENTERING THE MAIN ISLAND OF
PUERTO RICO UNTIL AFTER 4 AM AST. FLOW IS NOW EAST SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 18 KNOTS BELOW 7 KFT...SO SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD FAVOR THE WEST NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER THERE IS STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
6700 FEET AND VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED AT 700 MB THAT WILL PREVENT
ANY STRONG DEVELOPMENT OR DEEP CONVECTION. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE WARMING ON
THE NORTH COAST TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW...BUT INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING A TREND. MOISTURE
INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REACHES 1.75 INCHES BY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS DO BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE 700 MB AND
CONSIDERABLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS A MUCH MORE SHOWERY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL BE HELPED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGES MENTIONED ABOVE. THE GFS IS SHOWING A DRY LAYER BETWEEN
850 AND 700 MB RE- DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY THAT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BETTER THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RETURN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
BRIEF PASSING VCSH MAY AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX EARLY IN THE MORNING.
THEN AFT 31/18Z...SHRA MAY DEVELOP IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ...TO
CREATE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS THIS SITES. LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
...ESPECIALLY IN SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND SEAS MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE LOCAL OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
BY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 75 / 10 30 40 40
STT 85 74 84 75 / 10 30 40 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE ON THURSDAY AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG INVERSION CAUSING SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED IN
TERMS OF INTENSITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. OVERNIGHT ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXPECTED TO ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY UNDER IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS.
WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BKN CIGS 040 AT JSJ AND JBQ THIS AFTERNOON WITH -SHRA.
ISOLD -SHRA EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT PASSING SHRA AFTER 01/06Z
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING 4-6 FT THU
AND FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 87 / 30 40 40 50
STT 74 84 75 85 / 30 40 70 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
TODAY...COLLAPSING BY THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE LEVEL...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFF TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL TRADE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER THURSDAY AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING
A HUMID AIR MASS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. THIS AIR MASS WILL REACH
THE CWA TODAY...TO PRODUCE AN INCREMENT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS
MORNING... SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
ENHANCE THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALSO SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE WAKE OF THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA...ST THOMAS AND ST CROIX.

INCLEMENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COLLAPSE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS EXIST DURING THIS DAYS UNDER IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS. WX
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
BRIEF PASSING VCSH MAY AFFECT TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK BFR 01/12Z. THEN
AFT 01/18Z...SHRA WILL DEVELOP IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ...TO CREATE
AREAS OF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS BLO FL090 EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
...ESPECIALLY IN SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 5-6
FT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THESE WATERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS EXPECTED SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST UP TO 15 KT. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 30 40 40 30
STT 82 75 83 74 / 40 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS ON TAP THU THRU SAT AS HEIGHT
FALLS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THU WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVR WRN PR. POSSIBLE LULL
IN ACTIVITY FRI HOWEVER MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG T-STORMS OVER SW PR.
A SECOND FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA AND PROVIDE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. BEST MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN PR WITH STEERING MOTION
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. 500 MB TEMPS COOL DOWN TO -11C WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. FLOODING NOT LIKELY DUE TO VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BUT SEVERE WX NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRI AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY UNDER
HEIGHT RISES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING THU.
T-STORMS POSSIBLE THU ESPECIALLY AT JBQ AND JMZ. INCLEMENT WX
POSSIBLE FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT AT ERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TERMIMALS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON FRI. T-STORMS LIKELY THU-SAT.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CAUSING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
INDICATING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN PR AND OVER USVI. ANOTHER MASS OF HUMID AIR...NOW
IN ROUTE TO THE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE USVI AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FUEL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT....SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
USVI AND EASTERN PR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FORMATION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDINESS WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT
LEAST THRU SATURDAY. A SECOND AND STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A BETTER DYNAMIC
FOR STRONG T-STORM. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY UNDER
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
BRIEF PASSING VCSH MAY AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK BFR 02/12Z.
THEN AFT 02/18Z...SHRA WILL DEVELOP IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ...TO
CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. SHRA AND OCNL
MVFR CONDS RETURN TO TKPK AFT 03/02Z. WINDS BLO FL100 EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 02/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE EXPOSED
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 40 40 30 30
STT 83 74 84 74 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU APR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS MOVING WEST
BUT WEAKENING WHILE RIDGING NOSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ACROSS PR AND THOSE ON SURROUNDING WATERS PROBABLY HAVE
A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB ALONG WITH A CAP FOR
THUNDER...BUT THE CAP DISAPPEARS BY SAT. STILL ONLY 1.3 TO 1.4
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON SAT BUT MORE INSTABILITY MAKES
THUNDER MORE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACROSS PR AND THE USVI WILL CAUSE VCSH ACROSS
MOST OF THE TERMINALS. TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ DUE TO SHRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PR. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PASSING SHRA CAUSING VCSH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL 02/23Z THEN DECREASING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KTS BUT REMAINING FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH IN WEST ATLANTIC AND WILL
ARRIVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI VERY MUTED. BUT IT WILL
COMBINE WITH A LONG FETCH WIND WAVE FROM INCREASING TRADE WINDS SO
THAT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SAT/SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 77 84 / 40 30 30 60
STT 74 79 76 84 / 30 30 30 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST FRI APR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE SEEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH
DRY AIR TO OUR NORTH. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MAINLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEP
ENOUGH...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT LOW LEVEL...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR 1.2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...THETA-E
VALUES AT 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 315K...WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A LOW VALUE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMATION.
ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BRIEFLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THE TROUGH NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND WILL ADJUST FORECAST IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO PENETRATE FROM THE NORTHEAST
REDUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED OVER WATERS NE OF TJSJ
INCLUDING TAF SITES TIST...TNCM AND TKPK...OTHERWISE SCT SHRA WILL CONT.
THIS TREND WILL CONT THRU 04/02Z. EXCEPT AFT 03/16Z SHRA WILL DEVELOP
OVR INTERIOR PR TO INCLUDE TJMZ AND DOWNSTREAM FROM TIST AND TISX. WRN
PR SHLD EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TIL AFT 03/23Z.
WINDS ALF ENE 10 TO 20 KT BLO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 75 / 20 30 30 30
STT 79 76 84 77 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST FRI APR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MODERATE TRADE WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH AND INTO OUR LOCAL
AREA...WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BUT ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHWESTERN PR WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE ISOLATED AREAS
WITH ABOUT ONE INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TRADE
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NOW THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGEST
AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HAVING SAID THIS...THERE MAY BE SOME DIVERGENCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND ACROSS THE
USVI...SO POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT FOR THOSE AREAS. ISOLATED AND
BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED...WILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BEING THE DRY AIR AT 700MB AND
ABOVE...PLUS OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYING ONLY ABOUT 1.3
INCHES OR SO WITH THETA-E AT 700 MB BEING ONLY AT 315K WHICH IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SCT/BKN CIGS WITH SHRA NEAR TJMZ AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 22Z. VCSH IN AND
AROUND TNCM/TKPK AFT 22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE E-NE AROUND
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL AT LEAST 23Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 86 / 30 50 50 30
STT 76 84 77 84 / 30 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST SAT APR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH IT AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. MOST SHOWERS ACTIVITY WERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SAINT CROIX. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
WITH IT AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

AS TROUGH AXIS RELOCATES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WORKWEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THESE TRADE WINDS
BRINGS THESE SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH ONLY VCSH SHOWERS EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND TNCM/TKPK INTO EARLY MORNING. WINDS...EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 13Z. EXPECT SOME SCT/BKN CIGS WITH SHRA NEAR
TJMZ AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
16 THRU 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 84 77 84 78 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST SAT APR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CAUSING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE LOCAL AREA IS SLOWLY DIGGING AND
MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THEN WE WILL BE IN THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
RECEIVED SOME RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO ALSO OBSERVED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. AS OF NOW THERE HAS BEEN NO REPORTS OF
URBAN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE SOILS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DRY.
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR RECEIVED
SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST WHILE KEEPING
US IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MEANS THAT THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN AT ABOUT NORMAL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.4
INCHES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO MAJOR FEATURE EXPECTED...ONLY
TRADEWIND SHOWERS IN THE NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA/OBSCD MTNS TO TAPER OFF LATE AFT. ISOLD/
SCT SHRA TONITE BUT ONLY SLIM CHC OF MVFR...MAINLY USVI. SCT SHRA
WEST PR SUN OTW ISOLD SHRA. WIND BLO FL100 THRU SUN NITE E 7-18
KT.


&&

.MARINE...EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE NEARBY BUOYS ARE OBSERVING SEAS
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE...WE STILL EXPECT SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 87 / 30 30 30 30
STT 77 84 78 85 / 30 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST SUN APR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVERNIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSPORTED BY THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WHICH
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHER U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MAINLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BY MID WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY GFS
MODEL TO DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND A FEW TAF SITES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT JMZ FROM 05/18Z THROUGH
05/22Z. OVERNIGHT...WINDS RANGING FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO E NE
WINDS 10 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 75 / 50 30 30 30
STT 85 75 85 75 / 50 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST SUN APR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST LIKE IT WAS EXPECTED...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A
FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA AND ACROSS THE USVI. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SLOWLY
SO THEY ARE STAYING OVER ANY ONE POINT FOR SEVERAL
MINUTES...CAUSING SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
ROADWAYS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END NEAR SUNSET
WITH TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN A HALF IN CH AND TWO INCHES.

OVERNIGHT WE CAN EXPECT THE USUAL PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS...EASTERN AND NORTHERN PR AND ACROSS THE USVI. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIMITED AS WE ARE IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. UP UNTIL THURSDAY WE CAN EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE
INT THETA-E ON THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AT AROUND 1.4 INCHES...HOWEVER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE MOISTURE INCREASING QUITE A BIT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN WEST PR THIS AFT TO DECREASE
LATE... SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE. SOME OBSCD MTNS AND MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA
POSBL AT TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP PSBL MVFR IN FEW SHRA...THEN VFR AND
SCT SHRA ACRS ISLANDS MON AND SLIM CHC OF MVFR. WIND BLO FL100 E
9-17 KT THRU MON BCMG 12-20 KT MON NITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THE NEARSHORE BUOY TO THE
NORTH OF SAN JUAN HAS BEEN REPORTING AROUND 5 FOOT SEAS AND THE
OFFSHORE BUOY 40143 IS REPORTING SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FEET BUT NOT
QUITE 6. SO WE KEPT UP TO 6 FEET IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...2 TO 5 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 87 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 85 75 86 / 30 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST MON APR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO HAVE DISSIPATED
OR MOVE AWAY FROM THE LAND AREA. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH MID MORNING. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE LAST 4 DAYS SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THESE SAME
REGIONS...THEREFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND SMALL STREAMS FLOODING FOR THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ/TIST AND
TNCM EARLY THIS MORNING. AFT 06/16Z...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CAUSING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TJMZ THROUGH 06/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY E-
NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 75 / 40 30 30 30
STT 85 75 86 74 / 50 50 30 40