Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

You can see many web cams from the islands at first post of Caribbean - Central America Weather thread

[Gustywind]

First small lines of showers are beginning to spread on Guadeloupe. Not much intense but thunder is sometimes rumbling.

[lordkev]

Yes, the showers and wind have just started to kick in here in St Kitts as well. No thunder or lightning yet.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1205 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

.UPDATE...
A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO UPDATE THE DISCUSSION OF A LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNE FOR
ADDITIONAL BULLETINS ABOUT THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES
ACROSS NE QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[ouragans]

Le niveau de vigilance en cours sur le département est JAUNE : Fortes pluies et Orages.

Des averses balayent rapidement l'archipel depuis ce matin et prennent localement un caractère orageux. Les quantités de pluie sont faibles pour l'instant et n'excèdent pas 10 mm en 6 heures.

Pour les prochaines heures, les nuages s'amoncellent et les averses deviennent plus marquées et tournent souvent à l'orage. Des rafales de vent de nord à nord-est entre 40 et 60 km/h accompagnent ces précipitations.

Le système perturbé qui s'organise à 300 km à l'est de l'archipel ne devrait pas tarder à être classé en dépression ou tempête tropicale. Surveillez attentivement nos prochains bulletins.

Ces observations et leur évolution immédiate seront remises à jour vers 15h45.

Warning level is Yellow for Heay rains and thunderstorms hazard

Showers are quickly crossing the archipelago this morning and locally develop thunderstorms. Rainfall are weak at thi_s time and do not exceed 3 inches for the last 6 hours

In the next hours, clouds gather up and showers become more frequent, often with thunderstorm. N to NE gusts 20 to 30 kts might be observed during those rainshowers.

The disturbnce which is getting organized 250 miles E of the rchipelago should not lat to be classified as a TD or a TS. Please monitor our next advisories.

Next updates by 3:45PM

[Gustywind]

Le niveau de vigilance en cours sur le département est JAUNE : Fortes pluies et Orages.

Des averses balayent rapidement l'archipel depuis ce matin et prennent localement un caractère orageux. Les quantités de pluie sont faibles pour l'instant et n'excèdent pas 10 mm en 6 heures.

Pour les prochaines heures, les nuages s'amoncellent et les averses deviennent plus marquées et tournent souvent à l'orage. Des rafales de vent de nord à nord-est entre 40 et 60 km/h accompagnent ces précipitations.

Le système perturbé qui s'organise à 300 km à l'est de l'archipel ne devrait pas tarder à être classé en dépression ou tempête tropicale. Surveillez attentivement nos prochains bulletins.

Ces observations et leur évolution immédiate seront remises à jour vers 15h45.

Warning level is Yellow for Heay rains and thunderstorms hazard

Showers are quickly crossing the archipelago this morning and locally develop thunderstorms. Rainfall are weak at thi_s time and do not exceed 3 inches for the last 6 hours

In the next hours, clouds gather up and showers become more frequent, often with thunderstorm. N to NE gusts 20 to 30 kts might be observed during those rainshowers.

The disturbnce which is getting organized 250 miles E of the rchipelago should not lat to be classified as a TD or a TS. Please monitor our next advisories.

Next updates by 3:45PM

Ok we don't speak about the same weather forecast ouragans, you share the public forecast but the pro version forecast does not mention that, and that's a good thing

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 58.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...ST. MARTIN...
AND ST. BARTHELEMY

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND...AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND AFFECT
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

San Juan NWS local Statement:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND ALL US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4N...LONGITUDE 58.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT 520 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SAINT THOMAS VI. STORM MOTION WAS W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml


- Fwd: SxmDCOMM - ODM: Country under a Tropical Storm Warning. TS Gonzalo expected to pass through Leeward Islands by Monday morning
•From: Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
•Date: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 14:32:42 -0400

News Release



Department of Communication (DCOMM), Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net or dcomm at sintmaartengov.org; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org



For Immediate Release: Sunday, October 12, 2014/N168-2.30PM



ODM: Country under a Tropical Storm Warning. TS Gonzalo expected to pass through Leeward Islands by Monday morning



GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) hereby informs the Sint Maarten community that the country is now under a Tropical Storm Warning as the system east of the islands has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo.

Under a Tropical Storm Warning; the warning means that there could be sustained wind speeds of between 39 and 73 miles per hour within 24 to 36 hours or less. Any preparedness measures should be completed as soon as possible under such a warning.



Residents should use Sunday daylight hours to secure anything in their yard that could blow away eg. Plastic containers, garbage bins etc.



Contractors should secure construction and building sites.



At 2.00pm on Sunday TS Gonzalo was located 200 miles east of Guadeloupe. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Gonzalo is forecast to pass through the Leeward Islands by Monday morning.



The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten (MDS) will be sending out a special weather bulletin with respect to localized weather conditions from the passing of TS Gonzalo. For weather updates, visit the MDS website: http://www.meteosxm.com



ODM will continue to monitor the progress of the storm. Additional updates will be provided.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger (Email/Blackberry: roddyheyliger at gmail.com; roddy.heyliger at sintmaartengov.org; Cells: +1 721 520-4217, 581-6323)

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten








Best regards,


Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE




Publisher of: http://www.soualiganewsday.com

Sint Maarten Online Newsday Source



Checkout my profile on LinkedIn.com



P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, Sint Maarten
Mobile: +1-721 520-4217 or 721-581-6323


RSH Consultancy Inc. (MedPRO), Corporate & Government PR/Communications



Email: roddy.heyliger.pr at gmail.com

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO HAS FORMED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
LOCAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.4N...LONGITUDE 58.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT THOMAS VI. STORM MOTION WAS W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AROUND 10 MPH
DURING THROUGH MONDAY ...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
MONDAY EVENING AND REACH EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.


.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 7 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

VIZ001-131000-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0004.141013T2100Z-141014T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...ANNA`S RETREAT...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...
CRUZ BAY
558 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WILL
OVERSPREAD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF RAIN ARE LIKELY... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY
EVENING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

[chrisjslucia]

No storm impact from Gonzalo expected here in St Lucia but it is impacting the local weather. It seems to be pulling weather from the West North West over us and Martinique, so instead of a cool breeze from the East, we are experiencing it from the western coast. It happens but only occasionally.
Hope everyone further north remains safe over the coming hours.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

PRZ001>013-VIZ002-131000-
/O.EXB.TJSJ.FF.A.0004.141013T2100Z-141014T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...
FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
558 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.

* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WILL
OVERSPREAD THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND REACH
PUERTO RICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS SAINT CROIX. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO HAS FORMED. WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WRF AND GFS GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
BELOW TWO INCHES WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SUBSIDENCE
AHEAD OF GONZALO SHOULD DOMINATE THE AREA...THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZES TO
PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AROUND 12 MPH
THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT. RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND REACH EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 4 TO
8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LIKELY...AND GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS.
REFER TO HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

GONZALO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.

THEREFORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS LOCAL ISLANDS
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW... EXPECT A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FOLLOWED BY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS OVER PR/USVI TERMINALS TONIGHT. DURING THE
FCST PERIOD SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS TNCM/TKPK DUE TO RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM GONZALO. TNCM/TKPK ARE UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
10-15 KT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARODUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S.V.I. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET
LIKELY...DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY...SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET
POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 88 77 87 / 50 80 80 70
STT 82 83 80 83 / 60 90 90 70

[chrisjslucia]

Checking the storm track tools on Storm Carib, i captured this image. It predicts a track right through Montserrat before skimming Puerto Rico.

Do we have any members in Montserrat?

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe enters orange vigilance

Sunday, October 12, 2014 - 11 h 32

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx

Weather France comes to place the archipelago in orange vigilance, while tropical storm Gonzalo approximates sides.

In its latest bulletin from 17 h 20, weather France announces that Guadeloupe is now in orange vigilance, with risk of high winds, heavy rains and thunderstorms. Tropical storm Gonzalo closer and is 214 km of the archipelago. Many thunderstorms accompanied by heavy showers and strong gusts to 70 km/h are expected in second part of night. Rainfall totals provided are of the order of 150-200 mm in 12 hours. Thunderstorms continues until the end of period. In early morning, Monday, the wind will be sector is 60 to 70 km/h with strong winds between 90 and 100 km / h. be careful.

[msbee]

I think French St Martin is orange too, Gusty..right?