Caribbean - Central America Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 95L)

#16461 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:34 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2014103000, , BEST, 0, 192N, 636W, 30, 1009, LO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 95L)

#16462 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:31 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1110 PM AST WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
INDUCED LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 95L)

#16463 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:20 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...LIFTING ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TODAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS...IT
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY AREAS IN
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ALSO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOFT ON FRIDAY...WHICH MEANS THAT
LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY. THEN A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...FURTHER SUPPRESSING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
NOT ELIMINATING THEM COMPLETELY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ISLANDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JSJ...USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 30/16Z... SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT
JSJ THROUGH 30/23Z. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS IN THE MORNING BECOMING
S TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 50 20 50 20
STT 86 78 88 79 / 50 40 40 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 95L)

#16464 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:36 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just north of the
Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the northeast and north of the center. Upper-level winds
are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development
while the system turns toward the northwest and north over the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3010
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16465 Postby msbee » Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:46 am

The tail of 95L continues to affect St Maarten. I woke this morning to the sound of heavy thunder and it is lightly raining.
Last night was quite a deluge.
Unfortunately a small FedEx plane on its way to PR took off about the time of the storm and crashed at sea. Two pilots on board. One is dead, the other one missing. Search efforts last night were hampered by heavy rain thunder lightning and rough seas.
very sad
http://www.thedailyherald.com/index.php ... &Itemid=54
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16466 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:10 am

msbee wrote:The tail of 95L continues to affect St Maarten. I woke this morning to the sound of heavy thunder and it is lightly raining.
Last night was quite a deluge.
Unfortunately a small FedEx plane on its way to PR took off about the time of the storm and crashed at sea. Two pilots on board. One is dead, the other one missing. Search efforts last night were hampered by heavy rain thunder lightning and rough seas.
very sad
http://www.thedailyherald.com/index.php ... &Itemid=54


Oh boy,what tragic news. And is only a weak low pressure.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16467 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:12 am

Barbara,here is the news translated to English about the accident.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 82680.html
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3010
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16468 Postby msbee » Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:26 am

Thanks Luis
Very sad news. Condolences to the pilots and their families.
People on SXM who work at the airport apparently knew these two pilots well as they regularly came to SXM delivering Holsum bread and also FedEx packages.
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 95L)

#16469 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:36 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1128 AM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH FEW
OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16470 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:24 pm

msbee wrote:Thanks Luis
Very sad news. Condolences to the pilots and their families.
People on SXM who work at the airport apparently knew these two pilots well as they regularly came to SXM delivering Holsum bread and also FedEx packages.

That's awfull sad my friends:cry: :( oh non oh non pas ça! My condolences to the pilots and their families! It's an heartbreak!

From our newspaper "France-Antilles"

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx


Crash Saint-Martin: the body of the co-pilot found

Boris CHISHTI Thursday, October 30, 2014 - 07 h 28

After the crash of a twin-engine, Wednesday evening off the coast of Saint-Martin, the body of the co-pilot was found Thursday morning off the coast of Mullet Bay partly Dutch.

Sad discovery, Wednesday morning, off the coast of Mullet Bay, partly Dutch of Saint-Martin. The body of the co-pilot who was on board the twin-engine Fedex cargo (of type shorts 360) was found by rescue teams.
The aircraft crashed at sea Wednesday evening off the coast of St. Martin with on board, two people, the driver and his co-driver. The aircraft departed from Juliana airport about 18 hours in the direction of Puerto Rico before turn during the journey for a technical problem. Unfortunately, as he approached the runway, the weather conditions were particularly bad and the unit is never managed to land.
The search for the pilot, are continuing. Since Wednesday night, relief operations are at work: the coast guard and Dutch emergency services, rescuers at sea and the french civil security helicopter.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 95L)

#16471 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:51 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The area of low pressure just north of the Virgin Islands has
become less organized. Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16472 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:53 pm

18z Best Track: Moving away from the islands but still tail can dump some rain.

AL, 95, 2014103018, , BEST, 0, 208N, 647W, 25, 1008, LO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16473 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:12 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...LIFTING ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW WAS MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH. LATER...WIND SHIFTED TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGAN TO DEVELOPED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. THE
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WAS PRODUCE BY THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THEREFORE...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...WHEN A RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ
UNTIL AT LEAST 30/22Z. AFTER THAT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VICINITY SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 89 / 20 50 20 20
STT 78 88 79 89 / 40 40 30 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16474 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:12 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP
CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/CNTRL
CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE USVI AND ADJANCENT WATERS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH CLEARING ONGOING OVER WRN PR. TROF AXIS WILL
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
STILL POSSIBLE OVR NRN PR THIS AFTERNOON BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED.

ON MONDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL SHARPLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CUTS OFF OVR THE SW ATLC. 31/00Z ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
GFS SHOWING AN ANOMALOUS DEEP CUTOFF OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING
WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVR ERN PR DURING THE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND WRN PR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WITH COOLER TEMPS/LOWER HEIGHTS IS FCST BY GLOBAL MODELS
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A SIG RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL ON WED WITH WX CONDITIONS IMPROVING
SOMEWHAT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR SVRL MORE DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE USVI WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS
WITH AT TISX AND TIST TIL 31/12Z...WITH CIGS AROUND FL020-040 AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3 MILES AS THE ACTIVITY AFFECTS
THE TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VCSH/VCTS IS LIKELY. VCTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
FOR TNCM. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NW-PR WHICH
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TJBQ BETWEEN 31/18Z AND 31/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTH OR SSE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SAT. TRADES
RETURN SAT NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
THROUGH SUN THEN BUILD 5-7 FT BY MON NIGHT IN NNW SWELLS AND ENE
WIND WAVES. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ATLC AND NW PR BEACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 88 81 / 50 0 10 10
STT 89 82 89 82 / 20 10 10 10
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16475 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:52 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP
CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/CONTROL
CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED
OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES OBSERVED IN SOME AREAS. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST...EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT
LEAST 7 PM AST. FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL AFFECTS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...A RETURN TO A WETTER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TJSJ...TJBQ...TJMZ
AND TIST UNTIL AT LEAST 31/22Z WITH CIGS AROUND FL020-040 AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO AROUND 4 MILES AS THE ACTIVITY AFFECTS
THESE TERMINALS. THE REST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAINS
MOSTLY VFR WITH ONLY VCSH. FOR TOMORROW...AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS NW-PR WHICH MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ
BETWEEN 01/18Z AND 01/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 14 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 81 87 / 0 10 10 10
STT 82 89 82 88 / 10 10 10 10
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16476 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:35 pm

Here is what occurred in the afternoon of October 31rst in the San Juan Metro area.Many flood events but no victims thankfully.See link below of translation to English of the information.

Image

Image

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 83555.html
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16477 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:22 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY. A CUTOFF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HISPANIONA TUE NIGHT AND MEANDER
THERE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE FILLING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVR NW PR
TODAY AND OVER WRN OR SW PR SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN ON MON BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN`T GREAT. HEIGHTS ALOFT
FALL RAPIDLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVR THE SOUTHWEST ATLC
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. AN INDUCED
SFC TROF FORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AIDING IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH FREQ SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH COAST AND ATLC COASTAL
WATERS. UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING WHEN MCS FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER ATLC COASTAL WATERS IN A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND DEFORMATION AXIS NORTHEAST OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN THU WITH WX CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AND RISK OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.



&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN CARIBBEAN WL PASS MAINLY S OF
ISLANDS TDY THO SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA XPTD NW PR. CHC MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA
AT TJMZ/TJBQ WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. ELSEWHERE ISOLD MVFR AT MOST. WIND
BLO FL150 ESE 5-15 KT BCMG E 12-20 KT TONITE/SUN.


&&

.MARINE...TRADES RETURN TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD RAPIDLY
MON AFTERNOON IN NW SWELLS AND ENE WIND WAVES WITH SEAS 6-8 FT LIKELY.
SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT ALONG
WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.


&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TODAY. RECORD HIGH
FOR TODAY IS 93F SET BACK IN 1978. TEMPS COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON THROUGH WED DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS...DENSE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 88 78 / 10 10 10 10
STT 82 81 82 81 / 10 10 10 10
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16478 Postby Gustywind » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:29 am

cycloneye wrote:Here is what occurred in the afternoon of October 31rst in the San Juan Metro area.Many flood events but no victims thankfully.See link below of translation to English of the information.

Image

Image

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 83555.html

Very impressive floodings! :eek: Glad to see that there is no fatality and damages from that... :) Thanks for posting that Cycloneye.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16479 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:34 am

Interesting to read the passage of Gonzalo thru the NE Caribbean.See below.

Post Analysis of the track of Hurricane Gonzalo thru the NE Caribbean islands
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16480 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 1:54 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY AND MEANDER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAINLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING
IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY TUESDAY...EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA BY
WEDNESDAY AND MEANDER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SEABOARD BY TUESDAY...PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA BY MID WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD RAPIDLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST SWELLS AND EAST NORTHEAST WIND WAVES WITH
SEAS 6-8 FEET LIKELY. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 86 / 10 10 10 10
STT 78 88 78 87 / 10 10 10 10
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Kennethb and 44 guests