Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST MON JUN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVING WEST
FROM THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THESE
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO E-SE WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGINS
ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE
A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE BULK OF THE MOITURE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING.
THE GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN STEADY INCREASE IN PWAT
VALUES UP TO 2.20 INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...SAHARAN DUST WILL START TO FILTER AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING AGAIN THE CHANGES
OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS WESTERN
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODS OF MVFR/BRIEF OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AS TSRA SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND SEVERAL BKN/OVC LAYERS THRU EARLY TUESDAY. LLVL
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15-25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS NEAR SHORE OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND UP TO 6
FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND WIND UP TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 84 81 85 / 50 30 30 20
STT 81 82 81 82 / 60 30 30 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST MON JUN 22 2015

.UPDATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PR TODAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OVER PR THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...URBAN FLOODING AND SEVERAL DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES DUE TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40-50
MPH. AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT IN CAROLINA...THE ASOS
MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AT 205 PM AST.

AT THIS TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS...AND LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND UPPER LOW/TUTT REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
SAL INTRUSION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY.
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY AS
MORE SAHARAN DUST SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST TUE JUN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 20 DEGREES NORTH WILL WANDER WEST TODAY AND
THEN BEGIN MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CROSS 50 DEGREES WEST FROM THE
EAST ON SUNDAY AND PASS BY NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS A SHARP TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THEN DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR VERY MODEST AND BRIEF MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...SOME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS A
TROPICAL WAVE EXITS AND A SECOND WEAK TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND WILL HELP BRING THROUGH THE NEXT WEAK WAVE...ON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED AROUND THE
EASTERN HEMI-CIRCLE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SOME HIGH CLOUDS STILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND BANDS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
AREA...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY HEAVY. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT THE BEST DRYING WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
TODAY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND
CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
AGAIN. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A PEAK OF MOISTURE
FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT JUST BEFORE THAT...MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS
SHOW VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BE AT A MINIMUM THEN. ALTHOUGH 700 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR INTERVENES BETWEEN THE WAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE SECOND WAVE ON TUESDAY.

SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER PDS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS WITH
MTN TOP OBSCD ACROSS EASTERN PR WILL REMAIN PSBL AS SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WEST/NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR. LLVL WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KT...WITH HIGHER SFC WIND GUSTS NEAR
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...7 FOOT SEAS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AND SOME PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 91 79 / 60 60 20 20
STT 86 80 85 79 / 40 30 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE JUN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST NORTHWEST OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 35 WEST WILL REACH
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE EACH AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KT...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...7 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 90 / 60 20 20 10
STT 80 85 79 84 / 30 20 20 10

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST WED JUN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL ESTABLISH A CAP INVERSION LIMITING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED FROM TIME
TO TIME THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR
INCLUDING VIEQUES. A RAINGAGE IN LAS PIEDRAS REPORTED 0.24 INCHES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS WERE REPORTED IN NEARBY
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED AROUND HALF AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF NAGUABO. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
WERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS AND SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.

CAP INVERSION DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SAHARAN DUST WILL
MAINTAIN HAZY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...A
COMBINATION OF A WIND SURGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WATERS AND ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES OF PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST/ISX AND LEEWARD TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AFT 24/17Z ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS NW PR...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JBQ THROUGH
24/22Z. WINDS E TO ESE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM.
SLGHT HZ ALOFT AS SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES CONT TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AND MONA PASSAGE. AS OF 5 AM AST...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 4-5 FT AND EAST WINDS NEAR 18 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW
20S. 7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FIRST THEN ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND MONA PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 6
FEET. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 10 10 20
STT 89 79 89 78 / 20 20 10 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST WED JUN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL
ESTABLISH A CAP INVERSION LIMITING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY. A WIND SURGE WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAZY AND HOT CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE REACHED 91
DEGREES AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS WITH SAHARAN DUST AFFECTS THE LOCAL
REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 45 WEST WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A UPPER
LEVEL THROUGH TO OUR WEST TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY...A WIND SURGE BEHIND THE
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINTAINING GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THESE TWO
FEATURES...ANOTHER AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AT JBQ THROUGH 24/22Z. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND JSJ/IST/ISX AND LEEWARD TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS E TO ESE
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS...FOLLOWED BY 5 TO 10 KT WIND AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS
OVERNIGHT. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT WITH P6SM
VISIBILITIES.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT. LATEST BUOY
DATA SHOWS BUOY 41043 AROUND 180 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN 6.2
FEET SEAS AND AROUND 6.2 FEET ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PONCE. WINDS WERE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 92 / 10 10 20 20
STT 79 89 78 89 / 20 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CAP INVERSION DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE LIMITING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A WIND SURGE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE WATERS AND COASTAL SECTIONS
OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. WINDS WITH THESE SHOWERS WERE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND HAZY SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO
WESTERN PR. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH LESS SAHARAN DUST...IF ANY.
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST EVENT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIMITED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS W PR AFT 25/17Z...THIS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ THROUGH 25/22Z. WINDS E TO ESE AROUND
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS.
SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES CONT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
VSBYS STILL P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO FRESH
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT. CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND PASSAGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. REFER TO LATEST FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 91 79 / 10 20 20 40
STT 89 78 89 79 / 10 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST THU JUN 25 2015


.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED SHOWERS CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. UNTIL NOW PUERTO RICO HAD BEEN COMPLETELY
SHOWER FREE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST EVENT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
REGION BY SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIMITED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS W PR AFT 25/17Z...THIS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ THROUGH 25/22Z. WINDS E TO ESE AROUND 15 TO
25 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES CONT ACROSS THE REGION BUT VSBYS STILL
P6SM. AFT 25/23...EASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH LAND BREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PR...USVI AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATER. SEAS4 TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 79 90 / 20 20 40 40
STT 78 89 79 89 / 30 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FLOW AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE REST OF TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY
CONDITION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND THE LOCAL WATERS. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO
ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL
PRODUCTS SUGGESTS ANOTHER HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST
TRAILS THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKLY TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HELPING TO BRING A QUICK
SURGE OF MOISTURE AND ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
BY LATE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOMEWHAT HAZY...AS SOME
TRACES OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS AS WELL AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS HOWEVER EXPECTED AS THE ACTIVITY WILL FAST MOVING AND
OF SHORT DURATION. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
BRING A QUICK SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL AID IN ENHANCING MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR EXPECT THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE FIELD TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS
AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER/SAL AND HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST WILL QUICKLY INVADE THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION TO BE ENHANCED AND MAY MOVE IN THE FORM OF SQUALLS...BRINGING
QUICK BURST OF RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER DRIER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TISX...TIST AND
TJSJ THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO AFTER
26/17Z...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
26/22Z. WINDS E TO ESE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AND HIGHER GUSTS. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION BUT VSBYS STILL P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLE
TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO
RICO...AS DRYING OF FUELS CONTINUE WITH RH BETWEEN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFDSJU) FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 79 / 20 40 40 40
STT 88 79 89 80 / 30 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A QUICK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND A BROAD
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST...WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TUTT
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUED NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION TROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
TODAY WILL AID IN SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...DO EXPECT SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER GUSTS. BY LATE SUNDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILER IN AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BRING A HIGH CONCENTRATION
OF SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
LESSER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE EARLY MORNING PASSING TRADE WIND
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...CAUSING
VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. THESE SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF OVER ANY ONE AREA AND PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW-PR AFTER
27/16Z MAY CAUSE VCSH/VCTS AT TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO A-SE AT AROUND 10KT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER 27/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK SURROUNDING THE REGION CONTINUED
TO INDICATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET AND ESE WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER BY
LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...CREATING
CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 92 79 / 30 40 40 20
STT 89 81 89 79 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. WIND
SURGE IN THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER NOW OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL DRIFT
FROM THE NORTH EAST OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. A MID
LEVEL NOW OVER THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...NOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE HISPANIOLA...HAVE MOVED AWAY...AND A PATCH OF DRY
AIR HAVE ARRIVED OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AS THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE INTERACT WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS MAY PRODUCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. A WIND SURGE AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...WILL ENHANCE THE FORMATION OF PASSING
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS TONIGHT.

ANOTHER EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF
SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL QUICKLY INVADE THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...LOCAL EFFECTS...AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY AID THE
FORMATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...AT THIS MOMENT MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING
THAT THE MAXIMUM AREA OF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW-PR AFTER 27/16Z MAY
CAUSE VCSH/VCTS AT TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST TO A-SE AT AROUND 10KT...INCREASING TO AROUND
15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER 27/13Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK SURROUNDING THE REGION CONTINUED
TO INDICATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET AND ESE WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. BY LATE EVENING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS AS THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...CREATING CHOPPY AND
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO
SAN JUAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 92 79 89 / 40 40 20 20
STT 81 89 79 90 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BASIN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE TRAILS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TRADE WINDS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE SURGE ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARDS ACROSS REGION BRING SOME SHOWER TO PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
MORNING . THEREAFTER...A SOMEWHAT DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO GIVE WAY TO SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESSER
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHERE
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT HAZY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...HOT AND HAZY AS THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL APPROACH
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INTERACT
WITH A TUTT LOW WHICH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION TO SUPPORT ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH ONLY VCSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLYING TERMINALS. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW-PR AFTER
28/16Z MAY CAUSE VCSH/VCTS AT TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10KT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15-
20KT AND GUSTY AFTER 28/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...DATA FROM THE LOCAL BUOYS SURROUNDING THE REGION CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET AND ESE WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SCA CONDITIONS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS...OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES DUE TO
THE CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS SEAS GENERATED BY THE EASTERLY TRADES. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 40 20 20 20
STT 89 79 89 78 / 40 20 20 30

[Gustywind]

Bad air conditions continue in Guadeloupe, red alert is maintained...

[size=150]Pollution: red alert is maintained[/size]

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx

This Sunday, the concentration of fine particles in the air should exceed the 50 μg/m3 averaged over 24 hours, value corresponding to the regulatory alert threshold. After two consecutive days of exceeding this threshold and faced with this forecast, warning procedure is maintained.
This pollution is mainly linked to the passage of the mists of sands on the Guadeloupe archipelago, but also to human activity (combustion of fossil energy, transportation, industrial activities...).
The alert threshold corresponds to a level of concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere above which a short term exposure poses a risk to human health or environmental degradation justified the intervention of emergency measures. This overrun risk is high for the next 24 hours.

Health recommendations
It is recommended to categories of particularly vulnerable population (pregnant women, infants and young children, people over 65, people suffering from cardiovascular disease, heart failure or respiratory, asthma) and sensitive (people are recognizing as sensitive during peaks of pollution or whose symptoms appear or grow during peaks) of:
Avoid travel on the main roads and their surroundings, to peak periods.? Avoid physical activity and sporting intense (including competitions), both outdoors and indoors. Postpone activities that require more effort.
In the event of respiratory or cardiac gene (shortness of breath, wheezing, palpitations...):
Take advice from your pharmacist or your doctor
Use the outputs more brief and those that require the least effort? Take advice from your doctor to know if your medical treatment should be adapted as appropriate.

Measures for the reduction of emissions
To reduce pollution, it is recommended to reduce the speed, emphasize carpooling, public transit and non-polluting modes of transport, stop the use of barbecue and respect the prohibition of burning of green waste in the open air.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...CWA. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...LOCATED NEAR 42 W. A TUTT LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF
DUST PARTICLES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE MONDAY. DRY...WARM AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE LOCAL EFFECT MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO BEFORE SUNSET. ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN SOME SHOWERS
MAY FORMED OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT DRY...WARM AND HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN...AS A RESULT NO
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AS INDICATED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...THE MAXIMUM AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
BE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...IT WILL INTERACT WITH A
TUTT LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA TO PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. MORE
DRY...WARM AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS THE WAVE EXIT THE
LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS...OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PR AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AS
WELL AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 29/18Z
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. AN ISOLD TSTM COULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF TJBQ AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED
ON OPERATIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND
15-20KT...DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15-20 KTS BY 29/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES DUE TO SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. NEAR SHORE WATERS...MARINERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 79 91 / 20 20 20 30
STT 79 89 78 89 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL REACH
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS MORNING OVER LAND AREAS. A DRY AND HAZY
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE EACH AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
DAYTIME...LOCAL EFFECTS AND AIDED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50 WEST THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY...PASSING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN
EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BASIN WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...IS EXPECTED TO
COMBINE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE WAVE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST WILL COVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS NXT 24 HOURS...AS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SCT CU
LAYERS 020-050...NO SIG VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. SOME HZ ALOFT ACROSS
FLYING AREA BUT VIS P6SM...SFC WINDS FM EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS TIL
29/13Z BCM FM ENE 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. L/LVL WNDS FM ENE 25-30 KTS
BLO FL180 THEN BACKING BCM FM W ABV FL250. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES DUE TO SEAS UP TO 7 FEET
AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. NEAR SHORE
WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO CHOPPY SEAS UP TO
6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND AND A SHARP DECREASE IN MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ACROSS THE REGION. PREVAILING WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SOME AREAS ARE EXPECTED. RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO THE MID 40S AND THEREFORE...MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
WEATHER HAZARD ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 79 / 20 20 30 40
STT 89 78 90 79 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY TUESDAY PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI
GENERATING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS. BY MID
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE FORMING ACROSS SECTIONS OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. IN GENERAL...IT WAS A DRY AND HAZY DAY WITH
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE MOMENT...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL ENHANCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI DURING THE NIGHT
PERIOD AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...ANOTHER SAHARAN
DUST EVENT WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE FLYING AREA. THEREFORE...
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 30/22Z.
WINDS OF 15-30 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST
TODAY FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AND MONA
ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS (RFWSJU &
RFDSJU) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 89 / 20 30 40 40
STT 78 90 79 88 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL ENTERING TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DETECTED AND AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (TUTT) NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER. THIS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OFFSHORE AND THRU USVI/LEEWARDS BUT
DECR THIS MRNG. VFR XCP MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFT OVR PR/USVI WI MVFR PSBL TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA E
AND S PR TO USVI...AND TSRA PSBL ON S OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND BLW
FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE TDY CONT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 40 40 40 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning

Scattered showers are falling in parts of Puerto Rico on this Wednesday that may cause a brief rise in the river streams and lakes but not sufficient to end the drought.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TUTT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WOBBLING 200 TO 500 MILES NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...HOLDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
SPLIT BY A WEAK TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY PULLING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH HISPANIOLA
TODAY HAVING CROSSED THROUGH THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
MORE TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOLLOWING TUESDAY. EPISODES OF DUST WILL BE HAD BETWEEN THE WAVES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE NIGHT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FELL IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS UNDER PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVED OVER GUAYAMA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 40 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT
WESTERN PUERTO RICO SHOULD STILL GET SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MORE THAN A FEW ELEVATED
STREAM LEVELS. AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS
WAVE WITH DUST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY. A THIRD WAVE AROUND TUESDAY WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY...BUT A FEW
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATER OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE TUTT OVER THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW LOOKS
PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT AND WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN HAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES EXCEPT IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
EARLY MORNING HRS...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN PR. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.
DURING THE AFT 01/16Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ...TO PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUST
IN/AROUND SHRA/TSRA...AFTER 01/12Z INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT ALSO IN THE PARTICULARLY WINDY
AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
AGUADILLA IN THE WEST END OF ZONE 712 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 78 / 50 20 20 20
STT 89 80 90 77 / 50 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 550 MB HAD
MOVED OVER MACM BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND HELPED REDUCE OR END THE
SHOWERS TODAY SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PR
ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO FAR.
THIS LAYER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WESTWARD AND INCREASINGLY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE REST OF TODAY.

REDUCED THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
THOUGH THE 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WE WILL HAVE WILL BE
MAINLY CONCENTRATED BELOW 850 MB AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRI/FRI NIGHT ACCORDING TO
GFS AS A WAVE BRUSHES PAST BUT A BETTER CHANCE NEXT TUE/WED AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN AIR WILL KEEP SHRA MINIMAL THRU THU...AND CAUSE
SOME FALSE CIGS AT TIST/TISX. VFR XCP PSBL MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ
THIS AFT AND THU AFT. WIND BLW FL180 E 15-25 KT STRENGTHENING
16-35 KT THU NITE/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN NEAR TERM BUT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BUT
GREATER CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. SMALL CRAFT FOR OFFSHORE CONTINUES
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 10 10 40
STT 79 89 79 90 / 10 10 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW ALONG 70 NORTH NORTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL SHIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN ABOUT
500 MILES NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST UNTIL MONDAY WHILE
WEAKENING.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING SOME MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. CONDITIONS BECOME DRY AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...THEN IT RETREATS INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC LEAVING ONLY A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY SMALL AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BUT VERY FEW MADE IT OVER
LAND IN EITHER PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
REINFORCEMENT TO THE DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY EVENING A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE
BEHIND IT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIGHTER THAN
BROUGHT BY THE WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH EVEN BELOW PRESENT LEVELS ON
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND ON TUESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD EXCEED 1.9 INCHES IF ONLY FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. HENCE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS ONLY LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL COME
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND IS NOT ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY SO IT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO MORE. AS IT IS A NARROW PULSE THE GFS IS
INDICATING LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN...BUT SOME MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
MAY FORM MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. SFC EAST WINDS 10-
15 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE MONA CHANNEL AND CARIBBEAN LOCAL OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN ALL OUTER WATERS AND PASSAGES BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 0 10 20 40
STT 90 79 90 79 / 10 20 20 30