Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
358 AM AST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING.
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH RIDGE
BUILDING AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD/STRENGTHEN INTO SUN MORNING WITH LOCAL PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LEADING TO WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION STRENGTHENING LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING OVER THE
NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND ST. CROIX WHERE FUELS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO BURN.

RIDGE COLLAPSES QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AND MON AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WEAKENING PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS EXPECTED MON-
MON EVENING. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUE
WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING AND LEADING TO GRADUAL
DRYING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WED-FRI
ASSUMING NOT ENOUGH RAIN FALLS ON THE SOUTH COAST ON MON. WINDY
PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE FOREESABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS BLW VFR THU-SAT. WIND BLW
FL150 E 18-32 KT THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG
AOA 20-KT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS GENERATING ROUGH SEAS 6-8 FT.
THERE IS A VERY STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ALONG WITH A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE NOT AS DRY AS COMPARED TO THE
WINTER OF 2013 AND 2014...THEY ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO BURN. AS
OPPOSED TO THE LAST TWO YEARS WHEN MOST OF THE FUELS WERE ALREADY
BURNED BY THIS TIME...FIRE ACTIVITY SO FAR IN 2015 HAS BEEN RECORD
LOW MEANING THERE IS PLENTY OF FRESH FUEL AVAILABLE TO BURN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPEED UP THE DRYING OF FUELS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL LEAD TO SHARP AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING TODAY AND FRI.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRI AND ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SAT AND LIKELY ON SUN. CRITICAL FIRE WX PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 87 74 / 0 10 20 20
STT 86 77 85 77 / 0 10 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
144 PM AST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TO SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG
CAP INVERSION...WINDY CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS WERE OF SHORT DURATION WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SMALL PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY A FEW VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI
AND LEEWARD TERMINAL TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 15K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN STRONG UP TO AT LEAST 15K THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE
WINDS WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS ALONG WITH A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 86 / 10 20 20 20
STT 73 85 75 85 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SAT THEN
COLLAPSE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE AWAY BY 12Z LEADING TO A CLEAR AND DRY DAY. CONTINUED
WINDY AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUT CLOUD
CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT NIGHT.

A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
MON-MON NIGHT WITH RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ERODING QUICKLY ON MON PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY
WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MON-MON EVENING. TROF AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO DRYING. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES MID TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIKELY RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA BCMG ISOLD BY SUNRISE AND CONT AT TIMES THRU
SAT. MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS FM VFR BUT THOSE FEW COULD CAUSE BRF
SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND BLW FL150 E 13-28 KT TDY CONT AT LEAST
THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AOA 20-KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE 5-DAY
FCST PERIOD AND LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24-HR TRENDS SHOW DEWPOINTS RUNNING 2-4F DEGS
LOWER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND RH`S AS MUCH AS 10 PERCENT LOWER.
DRY AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED
FOR SOUTH COAST AND ST. CROIX. NOT AS DRY SAT SO NO FIRE WX
WATCHES ATTM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUN WHICH RESULTS IN
WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE BUT ALSO
IN GREATER FRICTION WITH A SIG REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
212 PM AST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TO SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION...
WINDY CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE THE CURRENT DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...IF ANY...OVER WESTERN
AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY A FEW VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI
AND LEEWARD TERMINAL TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 40 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 15K FEET

&&

.MARINE...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
STRONG UP TO AT LEAST 15K THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 85 / 20 20 20 10
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
402 AM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY SUN THROUGH TUE AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN CARIB.
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...WX PATTERN IS ONE OF BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS MON-
TUE...MODELS ARE NOW BACKING OFF ON MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
DESTABILIZATION KEEPING PWAT VALUES AOB AN INCH. DRYING
INTENSIFIES LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AOA 20-KT NEXT THU WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...FAST MVG BUT GENERALLY LGT SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES THRU
WEEKEND...A FEW WI POTENTIAL TO PUSH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO SFC. XPCT
VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT EACH CARRIES SLIM CHC OF A GUST TO 30 KT
SPCLLY TODAY. WIND BLW FL150 E 18-30 KT BCMG ENE TONITE-SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUN-MON NIGHT BUT REMAINS BREEZY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. SEAS 6-8 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING
5-7 FT SUN-TUE THEN BUILDING AGAIN 6-8 FT WED-THU OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY...MODELS SHOW
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A SIG UPWARD TREND ON 0-2KM RH VALUES AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT IT WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS SOMEWHAT SUN-TUE AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE ENE OR
NE RESULTING IN GREATER FRICTION AND THUS REDUCED WINDS SPEEDS ON
THE SOUTH COAST MAKING RED FLAG CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY. ADDED
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHES MID NEXT WEEK WITH DRYING INTENSIFYING AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND WINDS STRENGTHENING WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MVG -SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 85 75 / 30 30 30 10
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS TO ERODE
SOMEWHAT TODAY AND TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGE ALOFT
IS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF AND BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.THIS IN TURN WILL REINFORCE THE TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION...
AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
ALSO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXITS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND MOVES ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AND
CONSEQUENTLY INDUCE AN MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES
CONTINUED TO BRING PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DOMINANT
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS STEERED THE CLOUDINESS AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WERE OF SHORT DURATION AND FAST MOVING
LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE ERODING RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT...THESE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...UNDER
THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW. AT THIS TIME...ONLY
ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
AS THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAST MOVING.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALOFT ONCE AGAIN TO MAINTAIN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT PATTERN
WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS OR LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SO FOR NOW...EXPECT INTERVALS OF SHALLOW PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...FEW PASSING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS TJSJ...TISX...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK IN QUICK PASSING SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE AT AROUND 10 KTS EARLY
THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 02/13Z. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS THE VICINITY
OF TJMZ AFTER 02/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WEST AND
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...WHERE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TODAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...STILL EXPECT THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO GENERATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS WIND DRIVEN
SEA CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 84 75 / 30 20 20 20
STT 86 73 85 74 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. IT AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE AREA
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UNDER AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SW PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS A MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DRIFTING TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. AS A RESULT....FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT BY MID WEEK AND THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THEREFORE...LATE
THIS WEEK DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN OVERALL
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN. KEEP IN MIND THAT OCCASIONAL TRADE WIND
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JMZ/JPS TIL 22Z IN SHRA AND AN ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE. AFT 22Z
MOSTLY VFR CONDS WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS AT LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS AS WELL AS JSJ. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIND WAVES
NEAR 7 FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGIONAL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WEST AND SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO...WHERE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS...STILL EXPECT THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO GENERATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS WIND
DRIVEN SEA CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 84 75 / 50 20 20 20
STT 86 73 85 73 / 50 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TO GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE FARTHER
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS
IN TURN WILL REINFORCE THE TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION...AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AND REINFORCE THE ATLANTIC HIGH
NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC. THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WIND WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
OCCASIONAL FRAGMENTS/SURGES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/SHEAR LINES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS RECENT DAYS TODAY
AND AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY. THE PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL STEER PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ACCOMPANY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTION OF THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS
MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ACCOMPANYING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WILL OF SHORT DURATION AND FAST MOVING STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION.
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT OF SHORT DURATION TODAY AND
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

SO FAR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
STILL HOWEVER LOOKING FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. FOR MOST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF PASSING VCSH/SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TIL 03/17Z. SHRA EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
PR AFT 03/17Z WITH AREAS OF MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND SOME QUICK PASSING LOW RAGGED CLDS. PREVIOUS TJSJ 03/00Z SOUNDING
AS WELL AS FCST UPPER AIR SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW 20-25 KNOTS FROM THE SFC- FL200...BECOMING NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCR W/HT ALOFT TO MAX OF AROUND 45KTS NR FL450.
NO SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS
MOST OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AND REMAIN NEARLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRESENT MARINE CONDITIONS. FOR THAT REASON THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 74 / 40 40 40 10
STT 85 73 85 73 / 40 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES AND LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL INHIBIT
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL STEER PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE WELL INITIALIZE AND AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO STILL POSSIBLE. FOR MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND JPS/JMZ TIL 22Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO THE FAIRLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 86 / 30 30 10 10
STT 73 85 74 86 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. STRONG
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MOVED RELATIVELY QUICK
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE IN
GENERAL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEREFORE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE HAZARDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ST CROIX AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWSSTERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...TIL 04/14Z...CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
SCT-BKN030...SCT-BKN060...MOV WSW IN THE STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR IN LOW CIG AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA VCTY
TNCM/TKPK...AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJNR/TIST AND VCTY.ALSO VCTY STX AND ERN
PR...WITH PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING LOW CLD CIGS/VSBY IN
-SHRA/SHRA. WINDS ALOFT FM NE 10-25 KT BLO FL200... BCMG FM N AND
INCR W/HT TO MAX WND ARND 45 KTS NR FL400. MOST CLDS BLO FL090...
FEW TOPS TO FL100.SFC WND AT TAF SITES FM ENE AT 10-15 KTS OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY W/PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT
WINDS OF OVER 20 KTS AND REACHING 23-24 KTS SUSTAINED SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GENERAL DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRY WEATHER IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 86 74 / 40 10 10 10
STT 86 73 86 74 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CONVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS SW PUERTO RICO...
BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED...IF ANY...EACH DAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP AT 700-800MB.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WORKWEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP COLLAPSES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 86 / 20 20 10 10
STT 74 86 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS...EAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER ANY OF LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS
MORNING. STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...VERY SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE FIRE HAZARDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS...WITH WEATHER DRYING UP IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE...
INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AND REACH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME
AREAS. THE INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THESE FEATURES WILL INDUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS...AND
MONA ISLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 20 10 10 20
STT 85 74 86 75 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN A MOISTURE SURGE SUN NIGHT-MON ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FCST PERIOD UNDER
BUILDING/STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET
TODAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND APPEAR MORE THAN LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 48 HRS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 16-KT DURING DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOME ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR 20-KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN STRENGTHEN 20-25 KT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN_RH DROPPED TO 33% AT CAMP SANTIAGO TODAY WITH
EAST WINDS OF 20 MPH. THUS..RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER TOMORROW AND ALSO LIKELY TO START OUT DRIER
WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN TODAY. HENCE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 74 87 / 10 20 20 10
STT 74 86 75 85 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THAT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG TUTT
IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL FORM A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT RETREATS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL THEN RIDGE OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND MOST OF
NEXT. A STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN WEAKEN IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY
THROUGHOUT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BEFORE A LOW OUT OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES MOVES INTO ITS PLACE LATER NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH TRADE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...STRONGER WINDS WILL
RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHES
OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH THE AREA
FOR QUICK PASSING SHOWERS HAVING MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. BEST
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS BROUGHT UP TO ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE
WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN
FIVE HUNDREDTHS TO CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS BETTER
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF
THE DAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE AFTER MONDAY...BUT PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS AT 850 MB REACHING AROUND 33 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT MOST LEVELS BELOW 10 PERCENT.
NEVERTHELESS...PERSISTENT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE WEST DEPENDING OF THE EXACT FLOW
PATTERN AND CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED. HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL SERVE TO LIMIT CONVECTION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WINDWARD
SLOPES WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING -SHRA/SHRA EMBEDDED ON TRADE WINDS WILL
CREATE MAINLY VCSH AT TJSJ/TIST/TNCM/TKPK/TJBQ/TISX THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN...AFT 06/18Z CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR. WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT PR/USVI...AND AROUND 15
KTS AT TNCM/TKPK WITH HIGHER GUSTS...INCREASING AFT 06/13Z TO 15-25
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN PROTECTED AREAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN NOW
THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SMALL CRAFT WILL HAVE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
EVEN AFTER SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RE-EMERGE ON MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS ROUGHEN AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 74 / 40 40 40 40
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEEKEND BUT
STRENGTHEN AGAIN MON INTO WED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXCEPT FOR MONDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE SURGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE...PATTERN IS A VERY DRY ONE
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND BUT STRENGTHEN
AGAIN MON INTO WED AS LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE ATLC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT SAT AND SUN AND SEAS 5-7 FT MAY ACTUALLY
DROP BELOW SCA SAT AND SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN WITH OBSERVED MIN_RH OF 25% AND 26% AT CAMP
SANTIAGO AND COAMO RESPECTIVELY. A TIMELY 1725Z ACARS SOUNDING
SHOWED A MINIMA IN DEWPOINT OF 3C (37.4F) AT AROUND 875 MB OF
APPROX 4027 FT BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DEWPOINTS BELOW 40F
(10C) WERE OBSERVED AS LOW AS 2700 FT MAKING THE CAMP SANTIAGO AND
COAMO OBS REASONABLE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SAT AND SUN AND 0-2 KM RH`S ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE SO NO RED FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT
RED FLAGS COULD RETURN NEXT TUE AND BEYOND THAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 87 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 74 85 / 10 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST SAT MAR 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BE
DISPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THERE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ITS AXIS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A CUT-OFF LOW
WILL WANDER IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE PASSING LONG WAVE TROUGH
AT MID-LATITUDES LATE NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TEN DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE TOWARD THE
SEMI PERMANENT HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. PATCHY MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THEN RETURN BRIEFLY
TO DRIER THAN SEASONAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WRAPPED THEMSELVES AROUND THE ISLAND OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW BRUSHING THE COASTS AND ENTERING
OVER THE EASTERN COAST. AMOUNTS OVER LAND WERE QUITE LIGHT THOUGH
A FEW SPOTS OVER WATER MANAGED UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.
THIS DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. VERY DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO LIMIT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE SPIKES OF UNUSUALLY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN SOME INTERIOR REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS LAYER OF
EASTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND UPWARD TO 25 KFT. BUT ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL LIMIT SHOWER- KILLING SHEAR...THE LAYER ABOVE 10 KFT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY EVAPORATE UPON
REACHING THAT LEVEL. EVAPORATING SHOWERS...HOWEVER MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING -SHRA/SHRA EMBEDDED ON
TRADE WINDS WILL CREATE VCSH AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK
THRU THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...AFT 07/17Z CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT
PR/USVI...AND AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS AT TNCM/TKPK WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...INCREASING AFT 07/13Z AT 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 7 FEET EVERYWHERE IN THE LOCAL
AREA AND EVEN AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043. NEVERTHELESS LOCAL WIND
MAXIMUMS MAY BRING SEAS BACK TO 7 FEET IN EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REMOVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE LOCAL WATERS...BUT SEAS WILL RETURN TO 7 FEET IN
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AREA WIDE THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AROUND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROTECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 74 / 10 10 30 50
STT 85 73 85 74 / 10 10 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST SAT MAR 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW 850-500 MB RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LIFTING/WEAKENING SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON.
THIS ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT MORE IMPORTANTY MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH
DRYING EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND PEAK TUE-TUE NIGHT AS STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRES
GRADIENT. OVERALL...DRY AND WINDY TUE ON WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SFC AROUND
10-15 KT...WITH LIGHTER LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND PEAK 20-25 KT
TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING 7-9 FT BY THEN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS VERIFIED AGAIN TODAY AT CABO
ROJO. POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT SIMILAR
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS MAKES FIRE WX FCST CHALLENGING AGAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING
UNCERTAIN. FOR THIS REASON...NO FIRE WX WATCH ISSUED. SFC WINDS
APPEAR WILL BE MORE FROM THE ENE WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE DRYING
THAN SUGGESTED BY MODELS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 87 / 10 40 40 30
STT 73 85 74 85 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE WEAK CUT-OFF LOW JUST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX WILL DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING WEST A FEW HUNDRED MILES DURING THE WEEK. MID
LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK INTO THE RIDGE ALREADY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSING THE TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE GENERATED OUT OF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MOVE WEST. IT WILL
PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHALLOW SHOWERS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHY CLOUDS BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ALSO TO THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING SUIT. MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND ARE ALREADY ERODING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AT LOWER LEVELS. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 60S IN
MANY PLACES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AND IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS MOSTLY ISOLATED TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK TROUGH
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANOTHER WIND SURGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF DRYING. A COLD FRONT IS
BEING FORECAST BY THE GFS TO APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT THE SURFACE AT AROUND 10-15 KT AND GUSTY AFTER 08/13Z.
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPO CIGS
AT AROUND FL050-060.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING UP OVER UNPROTECTED WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AIR FROM THE VERY DRY
MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE CAUSING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN CABO ROJO AND CAMP SANTIAGO TO DROP TO
CRITICAL VALUES AND AS LOW AS 32 PERCENT AT CAMP SANTIAGO. WINDS
ALSO WERE STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A RED FLAG WARNING IN CABO
ROJO. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER COVERAGE HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT
THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AFFECTED SOUTH
COAST AREAS. IN FACT WITH DEW POINTS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER AT THE
SURFACE TODAY FROM YESTERDAY AND DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT MID
LEVELS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REACH OR GO BELOW THE 40
TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ON THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND POSSIBLY
SAINT CROIX...AND FUEL MOISTURES WILL LIKELY DIP AGAIN TO AT OR
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A RED FLAG WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER THIS MORNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 75 / 40 40 50 40
STT 85 73 86 75 / 40 40 50 30