Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST SUN JAN 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY FEW SHOWERS REMAIN TODAY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME
THAT IS STILL OVER USVI AND JUST SOUTH OF PR. THIS MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY KEEP MIGRATING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITHOUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OR HEAT SOURCE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

COLD FRONT MOVING OFF U.S. ATLANTIC COAST DO LONGER WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUSH BEHIND IT TO DRIVE IT THIS FAR SOUTH BUT A SHALLOW
EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE ISLANDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS RETAINED IN FORECAST WITHOUT MUCH ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND
AROUND TJPS WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDS CAN BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LIGHT NNE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BELOW
FL050.

&&

.MARINE...MINOR SWELL BEGAN ARRIVING AT BUOY 41043 VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND HAS HAD LITTLE IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
APPROACHING FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE EAST OF FLORIDA ON MON
AND REGENERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK BUT ONLY TO A
MODERATE LEVEL AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET
ALL OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 83 / 20 20 30 30
STT 71 83 72 83 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST MON JAN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA
WILL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
WEST BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE INTO NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEK AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL DRY
COMPLETELY TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ONLY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DISSIPATING OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK AND VARIABLE
TODAY AND THEN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL SET IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MODEST HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. PATCHY
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LIMITED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST AND STRONGEST SHOWERS AROUND CULEBRA AND
A FEW JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD ALSO BE
SEEN FADING AS IT ENTERED THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. CURRENTLY THE
GFS IS FORECASTING A VERY DRY AIR MASS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
NORTHWEST AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MOST AREAS NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO`S CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THE WRF IS SHOWING A SIMILAR SHOWER
PATTERN TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA...
ONLY A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED
BY NORTHERLY FLOW BUTTING UP AGAINST A MODERATE SEA BREEZE FROM
SABANA GRANDE TO PATILLAS...ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL CITY OF PONCE MAY
RECEIVE VERY LITTLE RAIN. SHOWERS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MORE THAN
THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH ANYWHERE AND MOST AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER.

AS FLOW TURNS TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOME MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST IS MIXED IN. BY WEDNESDAY THE SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE CULEBRINAS VALLEY AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A DIP IN
MOISTURE NEXT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY THE BEST MOISTURE OF THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST WILL RISE A LITTLE
AFTER TUESDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITE...EXCEPT
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDS NEAR JPS IN SCT SHRA AFTER 19/16Z. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN AFT 19/12Z...A NORTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATION.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REACHED ALMOST 8 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY
SUNDAY...AND ARE RUNNING OVER 5 FEET AT THE INNER BUOY. EXPECT
SEAS TO INCREASE A LITTLE BY TUESDAY...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ANYWHERE
THIS WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...SMALL AREAS OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS MAY
BRIEFLY SEE SOME 7 FOOT SEAS TODAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 10 30 30 30
STT 82 72 83 73 / 10 40 40 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST MON JAN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA MOST
OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING THE TRADES WINDS TO VEER FROM THE EAST
ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE LOCAL REGION. MOISTURE HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY...SO
ANY SHOWER WILL BE BRIEF WITH LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...
THEN AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST PR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL
MODELS GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE IN THE SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS
SOLUTION IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP PSBL MVFR IN SHRA AT TJPS THIS AFT AND VCSH
TIST/TISX. OTHW ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONITE/TUE BUT MOST WL NOT LWR CONDS.
WIND THRU TDY BLO FL050 VRBL LESS THAN 10 KT WITH N-NW 10-20 KT
FL050 TO FL150. TONITE WIND SFC-FL150 NE 5-12 KT BCMG E ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
TO 3-5 FT. THE REST OF THE WEEK SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 73 82 73 84 / 30 30 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING
THE WEEK. A RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
THE GREATER ANITLLES FROM THE WEST WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH WILL
FADE AS TRADE WIND FLOW RESUMES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL FORM A WELL
DEFINED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THAT WILL TURN LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY FLOW DID BECOME NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS
EVIDENCED BY CELL MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS...LEAVING MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS...FORMED NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A BAND
OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS BEEF ISLAND
TO WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WEAK PERTURBATION PASSING THROUGH FROM THE EAST THAT
WILL CAUSE WINDS AT 850 MB TO TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY 20/18Z. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWER BAND TO CROSS OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS
AGREE ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFTER 20/18Z LASTING
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET AND FADING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BECAUSE OF THE WIND SHIFT...THE LOCATION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN SHOWERS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE
TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF THE WORK WEEK OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND A RIDGE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL GENERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP THROUGH 700 MB. THE GFS IS SHOWING UP TO 20
KNOTS AT 850 MB. MOISTURE ALSO DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
MONDAY AS THE DRIEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH COAST MAY FIND SOME
RELIEF FROM THE NEARLY 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THEY HAVE HAD
RECENTLY...THE NORTH COAST WILL FIND TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AT LEAST UNTIL
TUESDAY.

BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY THE GFS IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DIRECTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
THAT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND AMOUNTS SHOULD
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IF THE MODEL SOLUTION CAN HOLD. AT THIS
POINT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY NOT SEE ANY OF THESE SHOWERS BUT
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE FINAL EXACT POSITION OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FEW SHRA MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TJSJ...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLAND TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE MORNING. FOLLOWED BY AFT SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...SOME NEAR/OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 20/17Z. SOME
OF THIS SHRA MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WIND N-NE 5-12 KT
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 20/13Z...AND BCMG EASTERLY AFT
20/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST SWELL AT BUOY 41047 SHOWED A RAPID DROP IN
SEAS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO...AND THAT SAME DROP IS NOW BEING SEEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. RINCON...WHICH WAS SEEING UP TO 7 FOOT
SEAS...IS NOW BELOW 6 FEET AS IS THE NEAR SHORE SAN JUAN BUOY. THE
OUTER BUOY 41043 WAS REPORTING LESS THAN 7 FEET AT 4 AM AST. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEAS RELAX IN MOST AREAS. HAVE
TAKEN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 6 AM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 86 74 / 20 30 20 30
STT 83 73 84 74 / 30 10 10 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
REPOSITIONING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...A SURFACE PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
MOISTURE REMAINS JUST ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND...AND DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK SURFACE PERTURBATION HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND THE LOCAL
WATERS. THIS PERTURBATION WILL CREATE ENOUGH FORCING TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
MAINTAINING THE FAIR WEATHER CONDS ACROSS PR AND USVI. ALTHOUGH...
MOISTURE WILL DROP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ISOLATED SHALLOW
CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE IN THE TRADES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS PR/USVI REGION BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. WET TRADES AND CONDITIONAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST
BY THE GFS DURING THE WEEKEND. IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.
MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFT SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...SOME
NEAR/OVER JMZ AND JBQ...MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WIND N-NE
5-12 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND BCMG EASTERLY AFT 20/21Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL IS FADING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SEAS WILL IMPROVE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 3-5 FT.
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 84 / 20 20 30 20
STT 74 82 74 82 / 20 20 40 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Eastern Caribbean friends.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY
POSITIONING OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY. ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL ARRIVE AT THE LOCAL AREA CREATING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOLLOWED BY A DROP ON THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP OF PWAT ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...RESULTING
IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY...HOWEVER ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS AND OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDINESS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER TRADE WIND EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
SHARP INCREASE ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE
INSTABILITY PRODUCE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR/USVI AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER THIS PERTURBATION...GFS IS
DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WET TRADES ARE
FORECASTED DURING THE WEEKEND PRODUCING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND U.S.V.I DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. A DRYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
MORNING BUT PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE RULED OUT FROM THE FORECAST
FROM TIME TO TIME. ALSO...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOWER LEVEL WILL
CAUSE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 21/06Z. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST..TISX AND
TJSJ AND AFT 21/18Z YJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS BCMG ESE AFT 21/18Z. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET. BEACH GOERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS DUE TO A MODERATE
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 83 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 83 74 83 74 / 20 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FLAT MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH NEXT TUE
THEN COLLAPSE MID NEXT WEEK AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SIG CHANGES APPEAR ON TAP DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS OR SO AS BERMUDA AZORES HIGH PRES AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DOMINATE THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL WX PATTERN RESPECTIVELY. THERE
WILL BE A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING
LIKELY DUE TO A WEAK SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES. OTHERWISE...THINGS DRY
OUT BRIEFLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN EVENING AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES
SOMEWHAT. DEEP POLAR TROUGH THEN EVOLVES OVER ERN NOAM EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THE WRN ATLC ERODING THE RIDGE PATTERN. A DEEP LOW PRES
FORMS OVER THE NW ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFLYING/DEEPENING
TROF WITH A CDFNT EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NW PR NEXT WED AND THU.
SIG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPOACHING MID-UPPER TROF WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT BKN
CIGS 040 ARE POSSIBLE AT JMZ AND LEEWARD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN
SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...POSSIBLY CAUSING VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT TJMZ.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-15KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS...BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. WINDS
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 76 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 73 84 77 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WHEN A POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND..SURFACE TRADE WIND PERTURBATIONS/TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...AND AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRADE WIND EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND USVI
DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SHALLOW DUE TO
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.

THE GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING A DRYING TREND AFTER THIS
PERTURBATIONS LEAVES THE AREA ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER WET TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND U.S.V.I DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS WILL CAUSE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEK A POLAR TROUGH WILL ERODE THE LOCAL RIDGE PATTERN AND A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NW ATLC BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEREFORE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MASS OF MOISTURE BRINGING SCT SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TO TJNR AND TJBQ IN ENE FLOW. MTN OBSCURATIONS N AND E PR. SHRA
DVLPG OVR WRN PR AFT 22/16Z WITH BRIEF MVFR TJMZ AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS BLO FL100 ENE 5 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 5 TO 16 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
EXPECT...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET. BEACH
GOERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS DUE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ALONG MANY OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 85 73 / 30 30 30 20
STT 84 74 84 72 / 30 40 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ONTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION.IN THE UPPER LEVELS ....MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ...EAST AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE CULEBRA AND VIEQUES DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS....LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCING WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PERIODS OF MAINLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE AND A GRADUAL DRYING TREND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS SO FAR FORECAST TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLANTIC WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ONCE
AGAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MORE TO COME ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS ALL WILL DEPEND ON
HOW THIS UNFOLD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHEA OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISHNU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO MFR CONS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJPS BEFORE
22/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT TIPS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. PASSING
SHEA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VISHNU ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR TAMMUZ WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. FOR THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS EXPECT...WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 86 / 30 30 20 10
STT 74 84 74 83 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE FLATTENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY MORNING.
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU SATURDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS A DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO FORECAST PACKAGE...
FORECAST ON TRACK.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS..AT UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT
TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH. SATELITE IMAGES AND
DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SWIRL IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
MOST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. AS A
RESULT...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

NEXT FEW DAYS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP
INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY
MID NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE MAINTAINS LOCAL AREA UNDER A RELATIVELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE PR THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z. OVERALL...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS OF 5-10 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150 THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY. SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 85 73 / 40 20 10 20
STT 84 74 83 74 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
201 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH AND VORT MAX JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. THIS IS BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES. THIS VORT MAX
LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE BUT IT WAS MORE CLOUDS THAN RAIN.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AS WELL AS SOME STREAMING OFF THE USVI AND
EL YUNQUE RAIN-FOREST...HOWEVER THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
NOT ALLOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF MOMENTS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
SATURDAY AS A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NW-PR IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN
MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING
MORE LIMITED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...SO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK WE SHOULD BE UNDER ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SOME RAINFALL. GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT USED TO SAY A FEW DAYS AGO THAT IT
WOULD BE HERE BY WEDNESDAY AND NOW IT TAKES LONGER TO BRING IT
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA...SO IT IS A BIT EARLY TO BE TOO PRECISE
ABOUT THE TIMING AND THE IMPACT THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE IN THE
LOCAL ARE AND WHEN.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ENTIRE PRD. NO
SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM. LGT WNDS FM NE 5-10 KTS BLO FL200...
BCMG FM N-NW AND INCR W/HT ABV W/MAX WND AROUND 50 KTS NR FL400.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE AT LEAST VCSH FOR
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJPS AND TJMZ. TEMPO MVFR FOR TJSJ AND TJMZ IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 23/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 17 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL MAY INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 87 / 20 10 20 20
STT 74 83 74 84 / 20 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR
SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND
TISX THE REST OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW
PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. E TO ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 73 / 40 20 20 10
STT 83 74 84 74 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ERODING GRADUALLY DUE TO A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SHEARLINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...STAYING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
WITH MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN
PR...THEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL...WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINED ELSEWHERE IN PR.
THE USVI REMAINED FAIRLY DRY TODAY WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS WAS DUE TO A PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCED THESE SHOWERS.
THERE IS A STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE SO THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED TODAY. AFTER THIS
PATCH OF MOISTURE PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES OR LESS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AS A SHEARLINE
CLOSES IN. HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARLINE
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND SHEARLINE DISSIPATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW DOES
NOT FORECAST A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. FEW CLDS W PASSING ISOL
SHRA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS BTW FL020...FL080...CLR
ABV. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS FCST. SFC WND LGT/VRB...L/LVL
WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING BCM FM NE-NW INCR W/HT.
MAX WND ARND 55 KTS NR FL400.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 87 74 88 / 20 10 10 10
STT 74 84 73 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ERODING GRADUALLY
DUE TO A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A SHEARLINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...STAYING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED. HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION. VERY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 1.9 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. A SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BY
MID WEEK. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 25/17Z-21Z AT
TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. ESE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL050
WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 25/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 88 74 / 10 30 30 10
STT 83 74 84 75 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ERODE ON EARLY TUESDAY AS
A POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EAST SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A LEAST MONDAY... BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE SINKS
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
MOST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PRODUCED MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE DOWNPOURS OF SHORT DURATION. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES PREVAILED. HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN TO MAINTAIN AN OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ALOFT. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT AND SUPPRESS LOCALIZED
CONVECTION.

EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED PASSING
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS INCLUDING THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.

BY TUESDAY...A SURGE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR
LINE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES
TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES OR SO BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS ALONG WILL THE
EROSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCE OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS SO FAR EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE
DEPLETION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH A JET SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN SOME AREAS DURING THAT TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW
THIS UNFOLDS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS W INTERIOR PR AND VCTY TJMZ AND
TJSJ TIL 25/22Z. VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES DURG PRD. SCT-BKN
FL025-FL060...BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS...CLR ABV...FEW TCU TOPS
160 MAINLY INLAND PR AND OVR COASTAL WATERS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACTS ATTM. WND 5-15 KTS FM E BLO FL200...BCM FM N-NW AND INCR
W/HT ABV WITH MAX WND FM NW A 65 KTS FL400.

&&

.MARINE...
.MARINE...TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SEAS MOSTLY
2-4 FT AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 88 74 87 / 30 30 10 40
STT 73 84 75 83 / 20 20 20 40

[arizona_sooner]

Just an observation from down here in the southeastern Caribbean (Trinidad)... We had a chamber-of-commerce weekend after several days of pretty heavy rain. Just absolutely beautiful weather today with virtually no clouds in southern Trinidad at sunset.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION.
A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THEN...A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...FLATTENING/WEAKENING THE RIDGE
ALOFT. AT LOW LEVELS...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DESTABILIZE EVEN
MORE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/PERTURBATION
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS AS WELL AS LOCAL
SOUNDING HAVE SHOWED BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MINIMAL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OVERNIGHT. THIS DRY
AND STABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...
DEEPER MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL ADVENT OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...FOLLOWING BY A ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. DRIER TRADE WINDS WILL
ADVECT OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AROUND 20 PERCENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW
ATLANTIC WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
LATER THIS WEEK. THE INFLOW OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT IN GENERAL...MOISTURE
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...FAVORING A RELATIVELY STABLE
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST AND TJSJ.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 26/17Z AND
26/20Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. TWO PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 20 20 40 20
STT 84 75 84 74 / 20 20 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT REMAINED IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE EARLY TUESDAY AND DURING
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD WHILE SINKING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL THEN WEAKEN THE LOCAL TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE SINKS
SOUTHWARDS TO JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY AN INDUCED SURFACE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER THE DOMINANT EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS SOME OF THE ISLANDS SO FAR TODAY.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE OF SHORT DURATION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUED TO
SUPPRESS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...A QUICK SURGE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR LINE FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES
OR SO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WILL THE EROSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS
SO FAR EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS TO
RAPIDLY DECREASE TO NEAR AN INCH OR LESS.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ONCE AGAIN AND THE DEPLETION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH A JET SEGMENT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS DURING THAT TIME. THEREFORE FOR NOW LOOKING
FOR SLIGHTLY WETTER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TJPS DUE TO SHRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AT THE SFC...WITH 10-15 KT ABOVE TIL
FL200.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS AND THOSE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SEAS OF LESS THAN 5 FEET AND ESE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXPECTED THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 20 10 40 20
STT 84 75 83 75 / 20 20 40 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST...TNCM..AND
TKPK. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17Z AND
27/22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 27/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 73 86 73 / 20 10 40 40
STT 84 75 83 74 / 20 20 30 30