Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN IT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER TO FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
NORTH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL BE DIVIDED IN HALF NEAR 45 WEST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF MAINE. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE
DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A PATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STREAMED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS WERE VERY LIGHT OWING TO SIZE AND SPEED AT WHICH THEY WERE
MOVING...ABOUT 28 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT THERE WAS NO CONSISTENCY IN WHERE THE
MODELS PLACED THE BEST PRECIPITATION OR HOW MUCH CHANCE WAS TO
OCCUR. SO BEST ESTIMATE WILL BE SCATTERED POPS FROM EL YUNQUE TO
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THOUGH AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. MAIN PROBLEM WITH GENERATING
SHOWERS ARE THE DRY MID LEVELS THAT PERSIST...THE STRONG
WINDS...UP TO 31 KNOTS...IN AND NEAR A STRONG INVERSION AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND SO WILL
CONSIDER EVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO RATHER GENEROUS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT
CHANCES THERE AND ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE RIDING
ON THE FRESH TRADE WINDS RIDES BY. DRYING BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN.

CURRENTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES LITTLE NEXT WEEK AND HENCE
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN...EVEN DURING THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...LESS
THAN USUAL. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE AREA. CURRENT
MODELS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HRS. FOLLOWED BY
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 03/18Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
+SHRA/SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR SOME OF THEM CAN REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
EASTERN TIP OF AMZ715 AND AMZ725 SOUTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OR WILL GO UP IN ALL OUTER
WATERS AND PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 20 30 30 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WETTER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BRUSH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS MOISTURE
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND PR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
NORTHEAST OF PR COULD ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. THEN...AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL PASS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON TUESDAY. IN
GENERAL...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS SUGGESTED BY THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR AFTER 03/19Z CAUSING VCSH AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...DECREASING TO 10KT OR SO AFTER 04/00Z. TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 20 30 30 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 80 / 20 20 20 40
STT 90 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 91 / 10 10 40 40
STT 80 90 79 89 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREAIN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 80 / 10 40 40 30
STT 89 79 89 77 / 10 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED THE WATERS FROM THE EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE MAY BE
TOO LATE TO GENERATE ANY OVER WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL WAVE...
MOST NOTICABLE AT 700 MB...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT.

GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL MEANS (1.85
INCHES AT TJSJ) ALL OF THIS WEEK SO WILL NOT RAISE PROBABILITY
ABOVE SCATTERED AT ANY TIME AND OFTEN WE MAY BE COMPLETELY WITHOUT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS TJMZ...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. WIND WILL REMAIN AT AROUND
15 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGHOUT
REGION THOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS
INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING
AND SMALL CRAFT WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAWS SITE AT CAMP SANTIAGO REPORTED 33 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 3PM WHILE WIND IS KICKING UP A LITTLE TOO.
RED FLAG CONTINUES BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT BETTER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 91 79 89 / 40 40 10 30
STT 79 90 79 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION LATER TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUEDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY...WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
ANOTHER AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST TO AFFECT REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED CHANCES OF
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...06/14Z. THEN...ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER
WEST PR BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY ARE SHOWING HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT 11 AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATER TODAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 80 / 40 10 30 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER
THE WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY...SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR RETURNS TO
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HELPED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS DID NOT LAST
LONGER OR WERE MORE WIDESPREAD BECAUSE THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
CAUSE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WHAT WE
CAN EXPECT IS PASSING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR...THEN SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PR IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT...THE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE MOISTURE IS STILL
LIMITED...AS IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...STRONG UPPER JET IS CAUSING THE TOPICAL WAVE TO SHEAR
OFF AS IT PROVIDES A VERY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND SAHARAN DUST
NEARBY.

AFTER THE WAVE PASSES...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A PATCH OF MOISTURE COMES
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN CAUSE
SOME PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS...USVI...AND NORTH AND EAST
PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ WHERE SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 06/20Z. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS...ONLY
VCSH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-15KT
WITH GUSTS...DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 85 80 85 / 10 30 20 20
STT 80 81 81 81 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES...SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR
RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR
OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. VERY LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. NO WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES UNDER THE DOMINANCES OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CREATING
SUBSIDENCE AIR...LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...WILL CREATE SOME FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TOMORROW...A DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL REGION AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF VERY
DRY AIR WILL LIMIT EVEN MORE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR FRIDAY...AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE PASSED TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURRED TODAY
CAUSED SOME VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE AMOUNTS HOWEVER WERE NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANT...WHICH IT WAS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
INDICATED IN THE 07/12Z RAOB WAS ONLY 1.49 INCHES...WHICH IS STILL
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT IS AT THE 25TH
PERCENTILE.

LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY. KEEPING MOST THE
LOCAL AREA WARM AND DRY WITH HAZE. SOME MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHEAST...THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR
PATTERNS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME GOOD
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF OVER ANY ONE POINT AND LIGHT TO SOME MODERATE SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A TROPICAL WAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AND A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH
FOR TJMZ THROUGH 07/22Z BUT THEN LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT
10-15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 07/23Z...THEN
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS WILL BE UP
TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 89 79 90 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER NEAR BAHAMAS/CUBA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS LOW FOR
PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL INCREASE TODAY...
PRODUCING HAZY SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS
AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUSTAINING A STRONG CAP INVERSION...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR MOST OF PR/USVI TODAY.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... RESULTING IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE SHALLOW AS MID LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...HAVING LITTLE OR NO IMPACT OVER PR AND USVI.
MORE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JMZ AFT 08/17Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 10-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL KEEP CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER LOW ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW MAY MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42 WEST
SOUTH OF A LONG WAVE LOW DIVIDES THE SUB TROPICAL HIGH IN TWO
PARTS. THIS LOW WILL RECEDE TO THE NORTH DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BREAK INTO THE HIGH
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO POSITION NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THAT
WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH WEAK EXCEPTIONS SUNDAY AND
THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PREVAILS OVER THE
ATLANTIC...MAINLY FROM WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH SOME MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW STREAMERS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE ISLANDS OF
SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS SEEN THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 3 PM AST. MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA UP TO THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION NEAR 7 KFT. CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OWING TO THE
DRYNESS OF THE MID LEVELS. THIS SITUATION SHOWS LITTLE INDICATION
OF CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THE GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE APPEAR
TO CONFIRM THAT THERE ARE NO DRIVERS FOR A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
OR THE CURRENT PAUCITY OF SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

THE WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING
APPEARS TO MISS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND MOISTURE IS LACKING BEFORE THE
WAVE PASSAGE. SOME SHOWERS ARE INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF PUERTO RICO THEN...BUT THE PATTERN QUICKLY GOES BACK TO ONE OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY MID LEVELS MONDAY.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE E-NE
BLO FL200 AT 10-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND LOOK TO CONTINUE TO DO SO. SOME WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...OTHERWISE WINDS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS SHOULD
THEREFORE BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR OUTER
WATERS THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. THE NMM MODEL DID SEE THE DIP INTO THE LOW 40S
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN CAMP SANTIAGO TODAY...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT
FORECAST THE SAME DRYING FOR TOMORROW. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RFD...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...THROUGH TODAY...BUT WILL
NOT EXTEND IT FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 80 90 80 89 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAHAMAS...
CUBA AND HISPANOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR AND STABLE MASS AT MID LEVELS. OVERALL...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE HAVE MOVED OVER THE REGION SINCE
MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE REMAINED BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF USVI AND EASTERN PR
THROUGH MID MORNING. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH
THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO CONVERGE OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR. THE REST
OF THE WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...SOME MORNING
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FOLLOWED BY
LOCALIZED SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...HAVING LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MORE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 09/18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJPS FROM 09/18-09/22Z.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 91 78 / 30 20 30 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY A RIDGE
WHICH BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT WEST DURING THE WEEK ALLOWING
ANOTHER TUTT LOW TO RETURN TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD
THE BAHAMAS CROSSING 60 WEST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW
WILL FORM OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SATURDAY BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW UNTIL TUESDAY. THEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PASS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY
EVENING. MID LEVELS STILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY. A WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SMALL SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED FROM NORTHERN
PONCE TO MAYAGUEZ...BUT TOPS REMAINED BELOW 20 KFT AT LEAST
THROUGH 3 PM AST. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY AND A
TROUGH WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BACK OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP MOISTURE FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE ON SUNDAY. PRESENTLY MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND AROUND THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY
OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE TIME MAXIMUM HEATING BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT 700 MB BARELY REACH 50 PERCENT SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO
BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BUT AGAIN...MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
WAVE/TROUGH PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS AFTER
WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF OUR METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.

OWING TO THE DRIER AIR AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER...AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING ONE TO THREE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
VCSH FROM 18/22Z OVER TJPS AND TJMZ DUE TO SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SW AREAS OF PR. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE E-NE AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
SEAS WERE FORECAST TO INCREASE AT BUOY 41043 MID WEEK NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 6 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...GROUND EQUIPMENT FOR LOCAL SOUNDING HAS A
PROVISIONAL REPAIR AND PERSONNEL ARE EXPECTING A LAUNCH FOR
10/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 89 78 88 / 30 30 20 20

[expat2carib]

Thanks cycloneye for keeping us informed!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST FRI JUL 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN USVI AND THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE NORTH
AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. UNDER THIS
AIR MASS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR
57W...WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...DUE TO A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINING OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED UNDER RIDGE
ALOFT AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH 10/17Z. VCSH EXPECTED DUE TO BRIEF
PASSING SHRA NEAR TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST AND TISX AFTER 10/08Z AND
VCTS/VCSH ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 10/17Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE E TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS UNTIL
10/13Z...SLOWLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS AFTER 10/13Z WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 40 20 20 30
STT 90 79 90 79 / 40 20 20 40

[gatorcane]

Scattered showers are forming across Puerto Rico today. Pattern is alot different from what was seen this week so far. Looks like showers are possible through Sunday now. Earlier this week it looked like the dry weather would continue through the weekend according to the NWS. Some much needed rainfall is falling.

[cycloneye]

Scattered showers are forming across Puerto Rico today. Pattern is alot different from what was seen this week so far. Looks like showers are possible through Sunday now. Earlier this week it looked like the dry weather would continue through the weekend according to the NWS. Some much needed rainfall is falling.

Yes is good news that some rain is falling in parts of Puerto Rico but I have not so good news for you and that is is not raing in the lakes and rivers in eastern PR where the drought is more strongest.The rain that fell south of the city of San Juan fell north of the lakes so no good but at least the trees got rain.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST FRI JUL 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 59W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BY MID WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER
THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS BUT JUST BEFORE NOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND PERSISTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. TWO FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED AND THE DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY AS TODAY WITH SHOWERS
FORMING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA BY NOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. FOR
SUNDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...BEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PR. SAHARAN DUST IS
TRAILING THE WAVE...SO EXPECT ONCE AGAIN DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY MID WEEK...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WITH THE INTERACTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PR SUCH THAT TJBQ AND
TJMZ WILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH VCTS IN PROGRESS. TSRA EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFT 10/2130Z. ALSO SHRA VCNTY TJSJ WITH TSRA PSBL VCNTY
TIL 10/19Z. ISOLD SHRA ARND TNCM AND TKPK TIL 11/08Z. AREAS OF MTN
OBSCURATIONS TIL 11/02Z IN PR. LLVL FLOW ESE 10 TO 20 KT WITH
LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT THE SFC. OUTLOOK: TSRA TO DEVLP AFT
11/16Z IN PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...EXCEPT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AREA OF THE MONA PASSAGE
WERE SEAS UP TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PR DUE TO
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 77 89 / 20 20 30 30
STT 79 88 78 90 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT JUL 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE
WEAKENS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. TROPICAL WAVE NOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE WATERS AS WELL AS USVI AND THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE
MINIMAL. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PR AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINING OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED UNDER RIDGE
ALOFT AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PULSE ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEKEND...AS RIDGE
PATTERN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 11/16Z ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH VCSH LIKELY ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TJSJ THROUGH
11/16Z. THEREAFTER...AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS AND SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE BTWN 11/18 AND 11/23Z..POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KT UNTIL 11/13Z...STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER TO 10 TO 15KT AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SCA CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 87 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 79 88 79 / 40 20 20 20