Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
642 AM AST FRI NOV 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND RECENT TROUGH
PASSAGE HAVE BROUGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OUT AND FLOW WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HOLD THE AREA ON THE ENTRANCE OF
THE SUB TROPICAL JET UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK THEN DEEPEN IN
PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE
PROCESS. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE AT MID LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING GRADUALLY DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AS THE WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S.
STRENGTHENS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH NORTHEAST BUT WILL
ALSO PULL A WEAK TROUGH UP FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE PRESENCE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN SOME MORE MOISTURE WITH A LARGER INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS WERE TAPERING OFF AT SUNRISE BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL COVERED MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS EAST OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE THROUGH PONCE.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIMITED
CONVECTION SHOULD RE-DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT
THESE WILL BE SHALLOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EACH MORNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 20/12Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ FROM TIME TO TIME. A DRY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH LITTLE OR NO SHRA ACTIVITY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHRA
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR SHRA WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFT 20/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...A SHARP PULSE OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL THAT SENT SEAS AT
BUOY 41043 UP TO 11.5 FEET AT 20/01Z IS ARRIVING ON THE NORTH
COAST AT THIS TIME AND THE LOCAL SAN JUAN BUOY 41053 HAS SPIKED TO
8.5 FEET. SINCE THE OUTER BUOY HAS SINCE SUBSIDED TO 8.5 FEET THE
PULSE NOW MOVING ONSHORE IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 7 FEET
SHORTLY. NEVERTHELESS THIS SWELL EVENT WILL PROVOKE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. ANOTHER PULSE OF SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR RESULTS. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
EXTEND THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 84 76 / 60 30 30 30
STT 86 77 86 77 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES PREVAILED UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. NO
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER THE PREVAILING
WIND FLOW WILL BRING A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. OVERALL DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTH...WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN...AND SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ALONG WITH AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH SUGGESTED BY THE RECENT
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ...SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THEN...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IN SIGHT EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL DETERIORATION OF THE MARINE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE REFER TO THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE
TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS AT TIST/TISX. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER 20/23Z
TO AROUND 10KTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WX EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 9 FEET LEADING TO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AS PULSES OF NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGIONAL WATERS. HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 74 86 / 30 30 20 20
STT 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST SAT NOV 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK AND BROAD RIDGE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE WEST. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE
FOLLOWING MONDAY. MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY UNTIL MONDAY AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES GRADUALLY UNTIL THE FOLLOWING
MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE HIGHER
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN LOW UNTIL A TROUGH FORMING JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
UNITED STATES IN THE ATLANTIC MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE WINDS SOMEWHAT.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF
PUERTO RICO SPREADING A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE ISLAND AND TRACES OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE ISLAND AS THE DAY CONTINUES. WINDS TURN EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THEY DO...SO WILL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND INTERIOR. ON SUNDAY PATCHY MOISTURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS
ON THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS THERE...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM AROUND 1 INCH LATE TONIGHT TO
ALMOST 2 INCHES EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE OVERALL MOISTURE
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY MONDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW. A PATCH OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ON WINDWARD
SLOPES. THE GFS IS ESPECIALLY BULLISH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS EAST OF PUERTO RICO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NAM MODEL WAS NOT AS WET THERE...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50 PERCENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS
WETTEST THE MONDAY AFTER NEXT AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD AND
USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
ENE AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A MINIMUM IN THE SWELL AT THE OUTER BUOY HAS OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS DID REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7 FEET ALL
NIGHT. THE MODEL HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING SEAS...BUT TIMING SEEMS
PRETTY GOOD. CURRENTLY THE NEXT PEAK IN THE SWELL AT THE OUTER
BUOY IS EXPECTED FROM 21/21Z TO 22/05Z WITH ARRIVAL AT THE INNER
BUOY ABOUT 10 HOURS LATER. THIS MEANS THAT THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT PULSE OF
NORTHERLY SWELL BEGINS ARRIVE. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IN PLACE AS PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED AND HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DOWN BY MONDAY. HIGHER SEAS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS WEEK OUT OF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 84 74 85 76 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST SUN NOV 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING THE CHANGES OF THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW.
STRONG CAP INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR MASS AT MID LEVELS WILL
LIMIT THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN...
TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH PATTERN WILL INDUCE
A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE ON THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AND IT
ASSOCIATED CAP INVERSION WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND OF SHORT
DURATION. LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AREAS
WHILE AFTERNOON SHOWERS INDUCED BY SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UNDER INFLUENCE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH...THE CAP INVERSION IS TO WEAKEN AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER SURGE
OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH/LOW AMPLIFIES BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND HISPANOLA. AT THIS TIME...
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA WITH PASSING SHOWERS AT TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL
22/15Z. SOME SHRA EXPECTED AFTER 22/16Z ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS IN SCT SHRA. WINDS E-ESE 5 TO 15 KT
UP THRU FL110 WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES...LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS OF 6-8 FEET EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-SHORE
WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND THE LOCAL
PASSAGES. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 75 / 30 30 50 20
STT 84 76 84 76 / 20 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST SUN NOV 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE RIDGE IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. AN
UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN HOLD
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS COMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA AS THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR WAS PRESENT. ONLY A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. THE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A LITTLE ON MONDAY
BUT TI WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE...THEN THE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL STARTING ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE ON MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH GETS
CLOSE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...SO
THE CHANCES OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND HOLD MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE WEEK. HOWEVER FOR THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN TO
THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...POSSIBLY CAUSING GOOD INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS FCST ACROSS THE FLY ZONE WITH -SHRA PSBL
AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND OVER PARTS OF THE CTRL MTN
RANGE OF PR UNTIL 22/22Z. VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES...BUT BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS PSBL W/PASSING LOW CLDS AND
SHRA OVER CTRL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR OF PR. SCT OCNL
BKN CU/SC CLD LYRS EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS...FL020...060... FEW TCU TOPS 120-140...WNDS FM ESE 10-15
KTS BLO FL120...THEN VEERING AND INCR W/HT ABV. SEA BREEZE
VARIATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH PREVAILING SFC WND FM ESE
10-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...THE NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE LOCAL BUOY NORTH OF SAN JUAN IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF JUST UNDER 7 FEET WHILE THE
BUOY NORTH OF VIEQUES IS AT AROUND 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE STILL IN EFFECT BUT EXTENDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE WAVE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THE SURF
SHOULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 75 87 / 30 50 20 30
STT 76 84 76 84 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON NOV 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW WERE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE...PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND
BEYOND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES...BUT
-SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS THE REST
OF THE MORNING. AS A RESULT BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ...TIST
IN PASSING SHRA. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST
PR...RESULTING IN PROBABLY MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ FM23/17Z-21Z. E-ESE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATION INDICATED SWELLS HEIGHT OF 7 TO 8 FEET
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE...OPTED TO EXTEND THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT LEAST UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. REFER TO
LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 87 75 / 20 20 20 40
STT 85 76 86 76 / 50 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON NOV 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH PATCHES OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER WAS OBSERVED IN THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN AND
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSED DUE TO AN
AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE THAT MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSE FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST LITTLE BY LITTLE...INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA GRADUALLY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...SO THE CHANCES OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND HOLD MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER FOR THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS DOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...POSSIBLY CAUSING
GOOD INSTABILITY AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR PASSING SHRA W/PSBL
ISOLD TSRA OVR NW PR AND THE REST OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS TIL
23/22Z. SCT-BKN CLDS LYRS FL020...FL060...FL080...FEW TCU TOPS 120-
140 EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS IN THE FLYING AREA...W/PSBL CB DVLP OVR NW
PR TIL 23/22Z. MSTLY CLR ABV FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BUT STILL FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET AT BUOY 41043 IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET AT BUOY 41053 JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN WITH A
PERIOD OF 11 TO 13 SECONDS. BUOY 41056 NORTH OF VIEQUES IS
REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET WITH AN 11 SECOND PERIOD.
GENERAL TREND SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS DIMINISHING BUT STILL CAUSING
LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 75 87 / 20 20 40 40
STT 76 86 76 85 / 40 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH PATCHES OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR TODAY...DIURNAL CYCLE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. SEA BREEZE WILL INDUCE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...SO THE CHANCES
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER FOR THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...POSSIBLY CAUSING GOOD INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR...NORTH AND WEST PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ FM 24/17Z-21Z. E
TO ESE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KMOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 30 20 30 40
STT 86 76 86 76 / 40 30 30 40

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY...DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...INCREASING GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MID AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL POP UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN PR AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER THOSE AREAS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE CHANCES OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN TO THE WEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...POSSIBLY CAUSING GOOD INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS
THIS UPPER TROUGH COMBINES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT THE
GFS MODEL IS FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD PUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
TO ALMOST 2 INCHES THIS WEEKEND...AND OVER 2 INCHES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR DURG THE PRD AT ALL TAF SITES. SCT-BKN
CLDS LYRS FL020...040...080. FEW TOPS 120-140 OVR THE COASTAL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS... ISOLD TOPS ABV 240 W/ISOLD TSRA OVR W AND
NW PR TIL 24/22Z WHERE BRIEF MVFR WITH SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. SFC WND LIGHT AND VRB EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZES
TIL 24/22Z ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. WNDS BLO FL120 MAINLY FM SE 10-
15 KTS...THEN BACKING AND BCMG FM N WHILE INCR W/HEIGHT. NO OTHER
SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN BUOY AND
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET AT THE VIEQUES BUOY. THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
BUOY IS REPORTING SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET. ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE
AND OBSERVATIONS...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY THEN
INCREASING SLOWLY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 20 30 40 40
STT 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST WED NOV 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEN...TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
THURSDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW AMPLIFIES OVER BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA.
THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY ENHANCING
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-400 MB. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING WILL INDUCE SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE
ISLAND...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND WEST PR THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PR ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING TODAY AS RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN HIGH FROM
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...TYPICAL
CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD AREAS IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH/LOW AND
WET SOUTHEAST FLOW...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO SEE HOW THIS
PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 25/17Z. FROM 25/18Z-25/22Z...PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2-4 FT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUILDING THE SEAS TO 6-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE REQUIRED BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL
WILL AFFECT THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 30 40 40 20
STT 86 76 85 76 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST WED NOV 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH
INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
BRINGING A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE
LOW WILL DISSIPATE...BUT THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL FORM OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...EXTENDING
NORTHEAST...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A VERY MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED SHOWERS FORMED TODAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS AND LINGERED ON THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS LEAVING AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF RAIN AS OF 3 PM AST.
A PERFORMANCE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED AND THIS AREA WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FLOODING THIS EVENING. THE MANATI RIVER
WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AS IT REMAINS ABOUT 6 FEET HIGHER
THAN BASE LEVELS OF MONDAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VARIES BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.2 INCHES SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND CREATING ALTERNATING PERIODS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AT 700 MB FROM FLOW OUT OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO HEAVY AND
PERSISTENT RAINFALL. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS THIS SCENARIO
WOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF FLOODING IN PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLE THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME THE TROPICAL DESK IN WASHINGTON
MENTIONS THAT THE ECMWF HAS NOT ADOPTED THIS WET SCENARIO AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE EQUALLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE WET GFS SOLUTION
AND THE ECMWF. BUT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD GIVE CONSIDERABLE
WEIGHT TO THE WETTER SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHEN DOING LONG RANGE PLANNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR FROM 26/18Z-
22Z...IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ/TJMZ. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE ESE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...THEN BY
26/12Z WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS AFTER 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND AGAIN SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL INVADE THE OUTER WATERS EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING THE EVENING. SWELL WILL
THEN BE FELT IN THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES AND INNER COASTAL
WATERS. SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 88 / 40 40 20 40
STT 76 85 76 85 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST THU NOV 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
CUTOFF LOW BY FRIDAY...DIGGING TO THE SOUTH INTO THE BAHAMAS AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE WEEKEND. BROAD LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE A WET SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-400 MB WILL LIMIT
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT TO
PRODUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PR EACH AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RELOCATE OVER
HISPANOLA BY SUNDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS BROAD UPPER LOW
AND WET SOUTHEAST FLOW... ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AS EURO MODEL ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER LOW
FAR TO THE WEST. BECAUSE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW IS CRITICAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO SEE HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST..TISX...TNCM...TKPK...TJSJ THE REST OF THE
MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
AND NW PR FROM 26/18Z-22Z...IMPACTING MAINLY JBQ/JMZ. SE WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ON FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING 7-8 FEET ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 77 / 40 20 40 40
STT 86 76 86 77 / 40 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU NOV 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE HAS CUT OFF NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS AND WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CORE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER EASTERN CUBA ON MONDAY AND ROTATE
AROUND AND ACROSS HAITI BY WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE
CENTERED IN A TROUGH OVER JAMAICA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MID LEVELS WILL BECOME
QUITE MOIST AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE NOW THROUGH THEN IN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...MOVED ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONGER SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND AND FROM UTUADO TO
MANATI SHORTLY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING...SOME
ARE DEVELOPING IN MUCH THE SAME PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA. WE WILL BE MONITORING THEIR PROGRESS WITH AN EYE TO
EXCESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS INCLUDING AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SHOWERS IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
LUQUILLO RANGE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW USHERS IN MOISTURE
AT LOWER LEVELS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN GOOD MOISTURE AT MID
LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE MORE COMMON AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB DROP BELOW
MINUS 8 DEGREES CELSIUS. ACCORDING TO THE GFS VERTICAL MOTION WILL
BE BEST AT MID LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT
THE TIME THAT THE BEST AND HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCAL
FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE EXTENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ/JMZ THRU AT LEAST 22Z WITH MTN OBSCD
AND BRIEF MVFR. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL CONTINUE ESE AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA MAINLY OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 8.5 FEET AT BUOY 41043 NORTH OF THE
AREA IN A NORTHERLY 11 SECOND SWELL. ACCORDING TO THE WAVE
WATCH...WHICH HAS UP TO NOW BEEN A LITTLE TARDY AND WEAK IN ITS
FORECAST...SWELL SHOULD PEAK EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AT THE BUOY
AND LATER FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE NORTHERN SHORES OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WOULD EXPECT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME...AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 77 85 / 40 40 40 50
STT 76 86 77 85 / 40 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST FRI NOV 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE HAS CUT OFF NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS AND WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS HAD BEEN REPORTED OVER THESE SIMILAR AREAS THEREFORE THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN
AREAS TO FLOOD.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
OVER HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP GENERATE
A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASES FROM NEAR
1.50 INCHES TODAY TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY SUNDAY AND ABOVE 2.0
INCHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
SITUATION TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.

A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC
EXPOSED BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS ISSUED WHEN THE BREAKING WAVE ACTION POSES A THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. BEACH GOERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES OF ABOVE 10 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEW BRIEF SHRA ACROSS
TIST..TISX...TNCM...TKPK...TJSJ CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME IN
THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND
FROM EL YUNQUE AND MAY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...ALSO FROM
27/17Z-22Z OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR TO MAINLY
IMPACT JBQ/JMZ. SFC WINDS FROM THE ESE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 27/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SWELLS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC LOCAL
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES THIS MORNING AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES BY. THIS NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 75 / 40 40 50 40
STT 86 77 85 76 / 40 40 50 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST FRI NOV 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE IS SENDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY. THEN
THE LOW WILL WEAKEN WHILE WOBBLING OVER HAITI AND THE CARIBBEAN
JUST SOUTH OF IT. ONLY A WEAK EAST-WEST TROUGH WILL BE LEFT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS..LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS JUST NORTH OF HAITI
WILL PASS INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT WEAKENS
NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BUILD.
MID LEVELS BECOME MOIST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A PLUME OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW FEEDS MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES
DIMINISHED AFTER TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OUT OF THE MONA
CHANNEL WILL MOVE WEST TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT...MAINTAINING MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS FORMED NEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAT BEGAN
COVERING MOST OF THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT. THE PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO CAUSE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A LITTLE AND INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO.

MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AS A PROXY...INCREASES EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING STILL EXPECTED. NOT ALL FACTORS
CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING ARE COMING TOGETHER PERFECTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND THIS INCLUDES THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE SOUTH
WHOSE CORE IS NOT PRECISELY OVER PUERTO RICO...BUT RATHER SLIGHTLY
WEST...AND ALSO THE POSITION OF THE JET AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WHICH JET IS ALSO SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED AND WILL NOT DRIVE
COHERENT DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IN LONG FILAMENTS THAT COULD
INDUCE TRAINING. THEREFORE WILL NOT CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS EARLY DATE DUE TO THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT
BEING SUFFICIENTLY EVIDENT.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LESS
DRIVING FACTORS FOR HEAVY RAIN...IN SPITE OF MOISTURE THAT REMAINS
FOR THE REST OF THAT WEEK IN QUANTITIES HIGHER THAN THOSE NOW
HAD.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER SHRA/-TSRA ENDS ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS/USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME THRU EARLY
SATURDAY. THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTN
RANGES OF PR...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN PR. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL
CONTINUE ESE AT 8-18 KTS...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
AT THE SFC.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS PEAKED AT 10.5 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 9.2 FEET. PERIOD WAS
INITIALLY 13 SECONDS. HENCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 9
FEET WITH A PERIOD AS HIGH AS 14 SECONDS ON LOCAL COASTS WITH
NORTHERN EXPOSURE INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY STAY UP
FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 75 88 / 40 50 40 50
STT 77 85 76 85 / 40 50 60 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LINGER
CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY OVER THE
MONA PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE AND A
WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. AT THIS MOMENT...THE WETTEST
DAY LOOKS LIKE WOULD BE TUESDAY...AS THIS TROUGH BRINGS ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LONG TERM...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING ROUGHLY AT
FL050-060. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY
CAUSING AT LEAST VCTS/VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT 10-15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
6 TO 8 FEET TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...HIGH SURF ADVISORY
AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES OF PR AND
PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUE IN EFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 76 / 40 20 50 20
STT 85 77 85 76 / 40 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THRU EARLY MONDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL PASSAGES...MOVING ACROSS THE USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF
OF PR. RAINFALL ESTIMATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THRU MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THRU THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. DENSE HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...THIS COULD INHIBIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR. HOWEVER...AS TROF ALOFT MEANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE MONA
CHANNEL. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST HIGHER PWAT VALUES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEY REMAIN AS BEST DAYS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT AS
WINDS TURN MORE FROM THE EAST...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOL TSRA ARE ADVANCING THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND
CONTINUE IN AND ARND THE USVI. WIDELY SCT SHRA TO CONT IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR IN TJSJ IN HVY
SHRA/TSRA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DVLP AFT 28/18Z IN WRN PR WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR AT TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL AFT 29/02Z. CONDS
IMPROVING AND BCMG PREVAILING VFR AFT 29/04Z. SHRA/TSRA TO RETURN TO
PR AFT 29/16Z. WINDS ALF ESE 10 TO 20 SFC UP THRU FL100.


&&

.MARINE...A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES...SUBSIDING SLOWLY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS AS TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE MONA CHANNEL INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 76 88 / 50 50 20 50
STT 77 85 76 86 / 20 50 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
642 AM AST SUN NOV 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS.
OVERALL...CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. AS THIS FEATURE MEANDERS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN OVERALL CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDINESS. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. A DRIER
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS
EXPECTED. CIGS AT ABOUT FL060-080 ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TKPK AND TNCM. TSRA POSSIBLE OVER
THE VICINITY OF TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST
TO ESE AT AROUND 10-15 KTS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES THIS MORNING WITH
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND BREAKING WAVES NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE DECIDED TO EXTEND HIGH SURF ADVISORY TILL 11
AM THIS MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 85 76 / 60 30 30 20
STT 84 74 85 75 / 30 30 30 20

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SUN NOV 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CUBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MEANDER ALOFT THRU AT
LEAST MID WEAK. INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUED OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF PR AND PARTS OF THE USVI THIS MORNING. THRU MID AFTERNOON
RAIN TAPERED OFF OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH ONLY PASSING SHOWERS
STREAMING FROM THE USVI INTO EASTERN PR. FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AS TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND EXPECT FROM TIME TO TIME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF
THE USVI AND EASTERN HALF OF PR...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF PR DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER EACH DAY. CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE GOOD THRU WEDNESDAY WHEN A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEKEND AS DRIER MID TO UPPER
FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
DRIFTING WEST. TSRA/SHRA ARE PSBL OVER INTERIOR AND NW PR TIL 29/22Z
AFTERWARDS PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE PSBL BUT CONDS WILL IMPROVE
OVER USVI AND PR THRU 30/12Z. TSRA/SHRA TO REGENERATE AFT 30/16Z
INTERIOR AND WRN PR. LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU 30/22Z. WINDS ALF ESE TO SE 10 TO 20
KT. WINDS AT FL420 SW 80 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT BY 01/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE. A 4 TO 6 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO FADE AWAY...BUT ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
UNTIL THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO EXTEND HIGH SURF UNTIL 8 PM AST
TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN PR...CULEBRA AND ST. THOMAS. A MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PR
AND THE USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 76 86 / 50 50 20 40
STT 76 85 78 86 / 30 40 20 40

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA AND THE MID TO UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MEANDERS ALOFT UNTIL MID WEEK.
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE E-ESE TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT FROM
NOW INTO MIDWEEK...THEN DECREASING SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW TO
THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AT EAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
CURRENT SETUP SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IF THE
CLOUDINESS BREAKS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED WHICH IS NORMALLY INDICATIVE OF
CLOUDINESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TODAY SEEMS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE OVERALL CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND COVERAGE SEEM TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY EACH DAY THIS WEEK...WITH
MORE LIGHT THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TROFINESS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. UNDER ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT JBQ...JSJ AND USVI TERMINALS AFT 30/16Z IN
SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...VCSH/VCTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY
SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND THE NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE NOW
REPORTING SEAS OF AROUND 5 FEET. HOWEVER THE BUOY 40143 TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WAS TILL REPORTING SEAS OF 8 FEET...FOR
THAT REASON WE LEFT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR LOCAL OUTER
WATERS THROUGH 8 AM AST. THEREAFTER...SEAS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN
THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 7 OR EVEN 8 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 76 / 60 20 30 40
STT 85 76 87 78 / 50 40 40 40