Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Jimsot]

OT:

Did you feel it? Earthquake near Anguilla

Event Time

2014-04-19 19:31:35 UTC
2014-04-19 15:31:35 UTC-04:00 at epicenter
2014-04-19 15:31:35 UTC-04:00 system time

Location

18.288°N 62.534°W depth=45.0km (28.0mi)
Nearby Cities

53km (33mi) E of Stoney Ground, Anguilla
111km (69mi) N of Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis
148km (92mi) NNW of Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda
233km (145mi) NNW of Sainte-Rose, Guadeloupe
242km (150mi) NNW of Lamentin, Guadeloupe

[msbee]

Yep, we felt it here too..

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 8n#summary

[cycloneye]

Some felt it in PR.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR with only a few showers moving thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA...WEAKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION RANGED FROM THREE QUARTERS TO ONE
AN A HALF INCHES OVER NAGUABO. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WERE SEEN
OVER SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH ARE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE
WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME
TODAY. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 1 INCH BY MONDAY. IS NOT UNTIL MID
WEEK...PW VALUES INCREASES AGAIN...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFT 20/16Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
PR...AFFECTING TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z. LLVL SE WINDS OF 10-25 KT
WILL PREVAIL BELOW 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
WINDS DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
MOST COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 75 / 20 20 10 20
STT 86 75 86 77 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN/ERODE
ACROSS THE REGION...AS TUTT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
PULLS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAVE A CONVERGENT
AND HIGH ZONAL/WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION IN RECENT DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND RELAX THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AS IT PULLS
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A POLAR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EROSION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PULLING FATHER
NORTH OF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER TRADE WINDS AND LESSER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWER THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION IN
RECENT DAYS. EXPECT LESSER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT PARTS
OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS....FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...OVER PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS.

BY MID WEEK...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POLAR TROUGH/WEAKENING COLD FRONT
IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND CREATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH AN INDUCED PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD
BRING AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER FORMATION OF EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FORCED BY LOCAL/DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SEA AND
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...RECENT GALVEZ-DAVISON INDEX
AS WELL AS LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SHOULD BE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
SEE HOW THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA DECR MOST OF REGION. BUT SHRA WI MVFR CIGS TO
PERSIST THIS AFT NR TJSJ/TJBQ AND PSBL TJMZ...FEW OBSCD MTNS. OTHW
VFR XCP SHRA REACHING TNCM/TKPK AGAIN TONITE. WIND ESE 12-18 KT BCMG
SE 10-15 ON MON. FL100-FL200 TO BE VRBL/LESS THAN 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUED TO DECLINE ACROSS THE AS
EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RECENT BUOY DATA FROM 41043 SUGGESTS SEAS
AROUND 7 FT OR SO WITH A SLOW BUT STEADY DECLINE NOTED IN RECENT
HOURS. THE NEAR SHORE BUOY 41052 SUGGEST SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND SLOW
DECLINE. SEAS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITHIN THE REGIONAL WATERS...THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER DUE TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE WFO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE SAN JUAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 75 87 / 20 20 10 40
STT 76 86 77 87 / 30 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and Vi.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THEN...AN INTENSE POLAR LOW WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST OF US BY MID-
WEEK. THE POLAR TROUGH WILL SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE PERTURBATIONS
ALOFT WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL AS FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS...LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO LOOSE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL PULL FARTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DETECTED A FEW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER MOSTLY CLEAR
AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE
ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. THEN...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. BY MID WEEK...AFOREMENTIONED POLAR LOW WILL SUPPORT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE LOCAL REGION...
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER FORMATION OF EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY FORCED BY DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN AS
THE POLAR LOW MOVES AWAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFT 21/16Z BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...
AFFECTING TJMZ AND POSSIBLE TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 21/22Z. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 14-18 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET HAVE BEEN MEASURED
BY THE LOCAL BUOYS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST WAVE MODEL DATA CONTINUES
TO SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
BASICALLY...THE SEAS WILL REACH THE MINIMUM BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 2-4 FEET ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS. THIS TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 76 / 30 10 40 30
STT 85 75 86 77 / 20 20 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
LESSER ANTILLES WILL MIGRATE NORTHWEST. BY WED/THU IT WILL ENTRAIN
INTO A MORE ESTABLISHED MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TO A (BY THEN) OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20N AND 25N.
BEFORE IT DOES SO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
HERE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
MARGINAL BUT K INDEX INCREASING TO NEAR 35 AS GFS SUGGESTS MEANS
ISOLATED THUNDER IS A GOOD BET OVER SOUTHEAST WATERS AND USVI TUE
NIGHT. BUT SHOWERS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN SCATTERED IS QUESTIONABLE
THOUGH ONE WOULD THINK THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS THAN ARE CURRENTLY
ON GUADELOUPE RADAR (BARELY SCATTERED). OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT DRY
AIR WILL BE FLOWING OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ALL WEEK FROM DRY
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIR WELL NORTH OF ITCZ MOIST BAND.

WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A 700 MB RIDGE SETTING UP NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARDS. THIS INTRODUCES A POSSIBLE VISIT OF SAHARAN LAYER
WITH DUST THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH PROBABLY BRIEF. THE SAHARAN AIR IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY EAST OF 45W. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WOULD DIVERT IT AWAY FROM
PR/USVI JUST BEFORE ARRIVING. AN EARLY LO0K AT 12Z ECMWF LOOKS
ABOUT THE SAME. 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS A WEAKER AND LATER TROUGH...
ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME SAHARAN DUST TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
TOO EARLY TO SIDE WITH EITHER SOLUTION EXCEPT TO SAY RELATIVE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER JMZ
AND JBQ UNTIL 21/22Z DUE SHRA AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR. VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM SFC TO
AROUND 5 KFT AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADES FROM EAST OR SOUTHEAST ALL WEEK AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS EXPECTED INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 6
FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 89 / 10 40 30 40
STT 75 86 77 84 / 20 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning on this Earth Day.Mainly good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few afternoon showers in the interior and NW parts of PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF TROUGHS/LOWS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE TROUGHS/LOWS WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT IN THE ISLAND`S WEATHER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEK. UNDER THIS CONDITIONS...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BERMUDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITHOUT HAVING A
DIRECT IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE...WINDS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NORMAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE
IN THIS REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE PUERTO RICO
REGION...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DIURNAL CYCLES WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE SHOWER FORMATION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHALLOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...
NORTH AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
PR AS THE WINDS PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN CONTRAST...ON FRIDAY...
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST...FAVORING THE SHOWER FORMATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFT 22/16Z BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...
AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 22/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS DECREASING FROM 3-5 FEET
TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL NE SWELL OF 2-3 FEET WILL
REACH THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTH SWELL
OF 4-6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 91 75 / 30 30 30 10
STT 85 76 88 78 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN. A HIGH ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THIS SHOULD
HELP CREATE AND MAINTAIN OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE
IT WILL CONTINUE TO STALL AND DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEATHER PATTERN...AN OVERALL
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND WILL
GIVE WAY TO BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WITH ONE
OR TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. DUE TO THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY STEERING
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK ...STILL LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE
FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS EACH DAY. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES OR
PROBLEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPCT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
ABOUT 22/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS DECREASING FROM 3-5 FEET
TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL NE SWELL OF 2-3 FEET WILL
REACH THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTH SWELL
OF 4-6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS TIES
THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1983.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 76 86 / 10 30 10 20
STT 76 86 77 86 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail to day in PR and VI with warm temperatures.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OR SO...AS A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...
RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING ESE AFTER 23/13Z AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT THRU FRI. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 76 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
STT 85 77 85 78 / 10 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH PULLING THE SUB TROPICAL
JET SOUTH AND INTO THE A FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BROAD TROUGH FROM A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
RETREATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF MAINE WILL ROTATE AROUND ANOTHER ALREADY
NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UNITED STATES INTO THE
ATLANTIC JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND CLOSE THE SADDLE IN THE
RIDGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
REPEAT THE CYCLE. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTER FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER NOON ACROSS
PUERTO RICO FROM ANASCO TO COROZAL. A STREAMER ALSO DEVELOPED WELL
DOWN STREAM FROM SAINT CROIX TO THE WESTERN END OF SAINT THOMAS IN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ABATE EARLY AS GFS MODEL SHOWS
A MOISTURE MINIMUM OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE BEST MOISTURE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY LIMITED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER AND
LOWER FEATURES PLAY OUT OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
FOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS THAT
KEEP GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. DURING THIS
TIME NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NOR ORGANIZED LOCAL
CONVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES
EXHIBIT ONE POP AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER THEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPCT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN -SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 23/21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY...BUT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MARINE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN USUAL WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 92 75 92 / 10 30 10 20
STT 77 85 78 85 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few afternoon showers in the interior of PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 10
STT 85 79 85 79 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK TROUGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE THIRD TROUGH PASSAGE THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY. MODEST
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY AND LAST UNTIL
THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PASSING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM
EASTERN CANADA THAT SINKS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PROGRESSION WILL CAUSE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM HORMIGUEROS AND MAYAGUEZ TO MOROVIS AND
OROCOVIS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND
OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE BEST MOISTURE BEING TODAY AND THE BEST
BEING MONDAY. NEITHER SCENARIO PROMISES MUCH WITH REGARDS TO
RAINFALL ALTHOUGH A FEW VIGOROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVELS WILL ADD SOME ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...BUT CAPPING WILL
OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL FIND IT
DIFFICULT TO PROSPER. ALSO GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY...AND
INCREASES...AND THE JET IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE AREA PROMOTING THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
NORTH...EVEN IF NO FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY PLACID THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. A NORTHERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS OF 5
TO 6 FEET WITH PERIODS UP TO 12 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 10 20 10 10
STT 78 85 78 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry and warm weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDING LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY PERSISTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER
80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED...THEREFORE SOME DIURNALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED.
AS A SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND BEYOND AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS A SECOND TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGE
ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY
WITH DRY AND STABLE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 25/17-22Z SHRA OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WILL CREATE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCSH AROUND
TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT...AFTER 25/12Z
FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY
AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING SOME.
MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 0 10 10 10
STT 85 78 85 78 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 251902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH PASSAGES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING... AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER TROUGH ON THURSDAY EVENING. A STRONG RIDGE WILL RETURN ON
THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN YIELDS TO A
SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHARPER
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ON THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME MODEST MOISTURE APPEARS
BETWEEN TODAY AND NEXT THURSDAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST VERY DRY AIR
FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LITTLE VARIATION IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUATION OF AN INVERSION WITH A TOP BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB
WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENTLE TO MODERATE AS LOWS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND THE HIGHS BETWEEN THEM SQUEEZE THROUGH FROM
TIME TO TIME TO REINFORCE THE PREVAILING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW TINY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE 3 PM AST AND THEY WERE SCATTERED ALONG
A LINE FROM SAN SEBASTIAN AND LAS MARIAS TO NARANJITO. AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IF ENCOUNTERED.

THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO VARY BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR ANY
PARTICULAR DAY IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IT IS
FORECASTING...BUT THE LATEST TWO RUNS HAVE SHOWN AN ACROSS-THE-
BOARD DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY OF THE WEEK AFTER NEXT.
A COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING NEAR 22 DEGREES NORTH BUT WILL BE
MAINTAINED UNTIL IT CAN BE REINFORCED LATE NEXT WEEK BY HIGH
PRESSURE THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
PUERTO RICO BETWEEN TWO RAIN PRODUCING AREAS...THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND THE AIR FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH...WITH
LITTLE RAIN FALLING OVER PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAVE FOR A CHANCE ENCOUNTER WITH SHALLOW...BUT VIGOROUS...SHOWERS
GENERATED MAINLY BY STRONG HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOONS. CURRENT
MODEL RUN SUGGESTS BEST MOISTURE FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY BUT AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE FORECAST...WHICH
IS BELOW NORMAL EVEN FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL. DRYING OF LOCAL
VEGETATION IS SUGGESTED AND THIS WILL ACCELERATE LATER NEXT WEEK
IF CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
BY ONE OR TWO DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING CAUSING MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040 ACROSS WESTERN PR. LATEST
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER
ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK
UNDERESTIMATION OF SWELL APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA...THEREFORE
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. AFTER SATURDAY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEAS ARE A
COMBINATION OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH AND WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...THE TOTAL OF WHICH WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY BUT SUBSIDE
LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DUE TO A GENTLE AND GRADUAL INCREASE
IN THE TRADE WINDS DURING THAT PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 88 / 10 10 10 20
STT 78 85 78 79 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry and warm weather will prevail today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SAT APR 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST. WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PASS ON SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
SUBTROPICAL JET ESTABLISHING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.45 INCHES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MOST OF WHICH STAY AT ABOUT 1.3 INCHES. THOSE
VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN ADDITION...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MEANING THAT
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SHALLOW. IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 850-800 MB FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

SO FOR THE NEXT 5 TOP 7 DAYS...A FEW RELATIVELY SHALLOW SHOWERS
AT BEST IS WHAT WE EXPECT GIVEN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERNS.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN
26/17-22Z OVER NW PUERTO RICO AND MAY CREATE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 10 KFT AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING AS NORTH SWELLS REACH THE AREA.
SEAS MAY REACH 7 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST SECTION OF OUR LOCAL
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 74 / 0 10 10 20
STT 86 75 86 77 / 0 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SAT APR 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH AIR ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER THAN USUAL
WHILE A SAHARAN AIR LAYER NARROWLY MISSED US EARLIER TODAY IN THE
CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED...POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF PR WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE
OTHERWISE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PERSISTENT AND DRY STABLE LAYER
PRODUCED BY THE 700 MB RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ABOUT 850-800
MB WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO GROW MUCH BUT COULD BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WED/THU WITH
MAYBE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE. SO FAR...SHOWERS FIGURE TO REMAIN
SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ
BETWEEN UNTIL 26/22Z WITH CLOUDS INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS
AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040 ACROSS WESTERN PR. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER
ABOVE 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELL A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE AND HIGHER SEAS ARE SWINGING
A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THAN EXPECTED. BUOY 41043 CURRENTLY NEAR 7
FT BUT WILL ONLY SWIPE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CORNER ZONE AMZ710.
TRADES TO REMAIN MODERATE AND WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 76 88 / 10 10 20 20
STT 78 88 77 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry and warm weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only isolated showers in the interior and NW of PR in the afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST SUN APR 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL AS A WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND
A SURFACE L OW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MID
TO UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA AT THE SAME TIME AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF THE
ISLANDS REMAIN WITH THE SAME LIMITED MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN PR COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING...LOCAL EFFECTS...AND PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE
CONVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

SAME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NW PR HAS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
REST OF THE ISLANDS ONLY OBSERVING ISOLATED SHOWERS...IF THAT.
HOWEVER THE APPROACHING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVING SAID THAT...THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND THE LOWER LEVELS COMES AT A BETTER
COMBINATION FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. THIS IS DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE
TROUGH AND THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TIMING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 27/17-22Z
OVER NW PUERTO RICO...BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 10
KFT AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM TODAY.
OUTER BUOY 41043 IS NOW STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SUBSIDING SEAS
SO SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
SEAS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...SEAS WILL
BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 76 86 78 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SUN APR 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST PR APPEARS READY TO GO AT
ANYTIME AND RADAR SUGGESTS IT MAY BE STARTING ATTM OVER LAS
MARIAS. THIS WOULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY. 12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT TODAY/S
TEMPERATURE ABOUT 1C COLDER ABOVE 650 MB...SO THUNDER SEEMS LIKELY
AGAIN FOR NORTHWEST PR.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AGAIN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK LOW
LEVEL (SFC-850 MB) RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF 20N TO STICK PERSIST MOST
OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME EAST OR EVEN
NORTHEAST WED/THU/FRI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE A LITTLE
FOR BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP UNTIL 28/22Z OVER NW
PUERTO RICO...BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 10 KFT
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...PEAK NORTH SWELLS HAVE PASSED THE AREA AND SEAS WILL BE
SLOWLY DECREASING FOR NEXT DAY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ON ATLANTIC
SIDE. TRADES WILL INCREASE BY MAYBE 2 KNOTS BY MID-WEEK WHICH
COULD MARGINALLY RAISE THE SEAS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 90 76 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 89 77 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Sunny and warm weather will prevail today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST MON APR 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD THU THROUGH SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE-
TROUGH CROSSING 70W EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SOME
DRYING MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE-RIDGING EXPECTED
TO HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT ONLY ISOLD POPS
TODAY AND TUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT RISK OF A T-STORM TUE.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN GMEX TO THE
EAST OF 90W WILL MOVE EWD NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...IT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG 90-KT 200 MB JET STREAK FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
AS A COLD POOL OF NEARLY -10C AIR AT 500 MB MOVES OVERHEAD.
T-STORMS WILL ERUPT SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA AND MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH HAIL GIVEN 1000-500 MB THICKENESSES NEAR -2SD FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THU WITH JET STREAK MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEADING TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
GRADUAL DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS SHARPLY FRI THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO FURTHER DRYING AND RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...L/LVL WND LGT AND VRB BLO FL150. NO SIG WX
HAZARDS EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND
ONLY FEW CU/SC CLDS. SHRA WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 28/17-22Z OVER NW
PR...BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ
AND TJBQ. BY LATE MRNG INTO AFT...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO
AROUND 10 KFT AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH THU THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT IN NNE SWELLS.
MAGNITUDE OF SWELLS FRI AND SAT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AND RUIN WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE A SPECTACULAR BEACH
WEEKEND WITH HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH
SUN UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 0 0 0 0
STT 86 78 86 78 / 0 0 0 0