Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Good morning!
This was an article in our local newspaper today:

So far, just 34 per cent of normal rainfall in 2015
MONDAY, 05 OCTOBER 2015 00:53
PHILIPSBURG--Rainfall in September was once again below normal, making it the tenth consecutive month with below-normal rainfall.
September 2015 was the driest September since 1986, which had a total of 20.7 millimetres or 0.8 inches. This year has so far been the driest year on record, with a total of just 253.3 millimetres or 10 inches of rainfall since January, just 34 per cent compared to normal.
This was outlined in the St. Maarten Meteorological Department’s September newsletter.
The Caribbean Drought Monitoring Network has issued a drought warning for the Leeward Islands including St. Maarten until the end of 2015, the newsletter stated.
The total rainfall this September was 26.4 millimetres or 1.0 inch, compared to the September norm of 94.9 to 132.7 millimetres or 4 to 5 inches. It rained on four days, with one day having heavy rain.
The longest dry spell was 11 days, between September 20 and 30, and the warmest day of the month was September 30, with an average temperature of 29.7 degrees Celsius or 86 degrees Fahrenheit.
According to the Caribbean Outlook Forum, the precipitation outlook for the season October, November and December is expected to be below-to-near normal, with “normal” rainfall ranging from 307.2 to 499.3 millimetres or 12 to 20 inches. Temperature for most of the Caribbean is forecast to be near-normal to above-normal for the same period.

Worrying situation that's insane

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST TUE OCT 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. TRADE
WINDS RETURNED. A SURFACE PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A THIN SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASED MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED WITH A THIN
LAYER OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. ON THE OTHER HAND...FEW SHOWERS MOVED
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS BUT THEY WERE MINIMAL. ONCE
AGAIN...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT SAN JUAN HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGH...FOR THAT REASON THE POTENTIAL TO SET ANOTHER RECORD FOR A
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS STILL HIGH TODAY...THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 80 AND WAS SET IN 2009.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKLY BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...INDUCING STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH A RIDGE IS PRESENT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT THE
AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW ALONG 49 WEST...BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN SAHARAN AIR LAYER OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AT
TNCM/TKPK WHERE SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL YIELD LCL AND BRIEF MVFR. AFT
06/16Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH
BRIEF MVFR. LOW LEVEL ESE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE SFC..WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 06/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COASTAL AREAS TODAY. AS A RESULT THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTS WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LOCAL SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE FIRST FIVE DAYS OF OCTOBER HAVE BEEN THE WARMEST
EVER ON RECORD AT SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT. THE AVERAGE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED THERE WAS 94.2 DEGREES. ALSO...THE
FIRST 5 DAYS OF OCTOBER REPRESENTS THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THOSE SAME DAYS AT 87.6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 93 80 93 / 20 20 20 20
STT 81 91 81 90 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation for the next few days, but they could become
a little more conducive by the weekend. However, any development
of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 to 20 mph over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST TUE OCT 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUE TO RIDGE
DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWARDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. RIDGE IS TO
GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE AREA AND SHIFT FARTHER EAST BY THURSDAY...AS
A TUTT BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE REGION. EAST
OF THE REGION...A TROPICAL WAVE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 50 WEST...WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY WAS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
TODAY WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SOARING TO BETWEEN THE LOW
TO MID 90S ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN JUAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 94 DEGREES TODAY WHICH BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD SET IN 1987. DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND
WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN
METRO. SO FAR HOWEVER...THE RAINFALL WAS OF SHORT DURATION. A
GRADUAL CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OF WEDNESDAY..HOWEVER EXPECT THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ALLOWING FOR MORE NEAR
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THEN AND DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WEST OF THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS IN TURN
SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT TIME. AS A RESULT UNDER THIS EXPECTED
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE AS BRIEF SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL ESE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS...IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED
BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 80 92 / 20 20 20 20
STT 81 91 81 90 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST WED OCT 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED WEST OF THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE SURROUNDED BY
A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH AXIS
NOW ALONG 52 WEST...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANY BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TUTT...WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED
WEST OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT TIME.
AS A RESULT UNDER THIS EXPECTED MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
WATERS MAINLY ON FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE AT USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS
THRU MORNING HOURS AS BRIEF SHRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VCTS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ FM 18Z-21Z. LOW LEVEL ESE WINDS AROUND
10 TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 79 91 78 / 20 20 20 40
STT 90 80 89 79 / 20 20 30 50

[abajan]

Dark skies and lots of thunder rumbling here in the south of the island this morning. It's not terribly loud though (at least not yet! ).

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST WED OCT 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTED FARTHER EAST
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 56 WEST...
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EAST AND TUTT BECOMING SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED OVER HISPANIOLA IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND ONLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TUTT WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE A FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE TUTT INTERACTION
AND LOCAL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
LINGERING TRAILING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY AND DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SETTLES IN ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH/VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL 07/22Z...MVFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE STATIONS. LOW
LEVEL ESE WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND
GUSTY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET...OCCASIONAL TO 6 AND WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 92 / 20 20 40 40
STT 80 89 79 89 / 20 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST THU OCT 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST APPROACHING THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED FEW HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANY BY A BIG AREA OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...REST OF PUERTO RICO COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE EAST. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. VALUES OF AROUND 2.2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE AFFECTS THE LOCAL REGION. FOR THE WEEKEND...A DRIER AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION...LIMITING THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VCSH/VCTS
ACROSS POSSIBLE AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES...MVFR CONDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL ENE WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT...VEERING FM THE SE
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 81 90 79 / 40 50 40 20
STT 89 83 89 83 / 40 60 50 20

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe and Martinica Under an yellow alert due to the arrival of twave number 41. Strong showers and tstorms are expected.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST THU OCT 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO
THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST...AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND SAINT CROIX EARLIER
TODAY...THEN THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS STARTED SHORTLY
AFTER NOON ACROSS MAINLAND PR AFTER NOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN PROBABLY
PEAKING OVERNIGHT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA. SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...SOME BRING MORE RAINFALL INLAND PR WHILE OTHERS KEEP MOST
OF THE RAIN OVER THE WATERS...USVI AND OUTLYING ISLANDS AND
EXTREME EASTERN PR.

THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL LEAVE LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE DECREASES AND REMAINS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE LOCAL
AREA...OCCASIONALLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA
CAUSING MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TISX/TJMZ AND
TJBQ. VCTS/VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OCCASIONALLY AFFECTING THE
STATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA...BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT BUT STILL
GUSTY NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THROUGH AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL WATERS STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 90 79 91 / 50 40 20 20
STT 83 89 83 89 / 60 50 20 20

[abajan]

Guadeloupe and Martinica Under an yellow alert due to the arrival of twave number 41. Strong showers and tstorms are expected.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

We got some thunderstorms from that TW today. It rained quite a bit too.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST FRI OCT 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN WESTERN PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A DRIER
AIR MASS AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WAS SEEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED
CLOUDINESS WERE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE OVER THE ISLANDS. DOPPLER
RADAR DETECTED A BIG AREA OF SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
WESTERN PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANY BY A
LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FOR PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THIS MOISTURE COMBINE WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS AT MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
SHOWER ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINTAINING RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AS
A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OVER PR. VCSH/VCTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THRU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
LIKELY AT TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FM
THE SE AROUND 15 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 80 / 40 10 20 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 50 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST FRI OCT 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE
PRESENT OVER LOCAL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL HELP WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN EAST TO E-SE WIND FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED EASTERN PR AS
WELL AS THE SAN JUAN METRO. THERE WERE OTHER THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PR.
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AND OUTSIDE OF THE
LOCAL AREA...LINGERING MOISTURE MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND HEATING TO HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

MOISTURE DECREASES AND REMAINS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN PR AND THE USVI.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH
09/21Z. WEATHER IMPROVING AFTER 09/22Z BUT PASSING SHRA MAY CAUSE
VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHRA/TSRA...DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO 5-10KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WINDS
UP TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 91 / 10 20 20 20
STT 80 89 80 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST SAT OCT 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PROVIDING A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN HOT TEMPS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION HAS PROVIDED THE
ENERGY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MOVE
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE USVI...SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY...AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

AN USUAL SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...SUSPENDED SAHARAN PARTICLES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND MID-UPPER
RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...TRADE WINDS WILL PUSH PATCHES
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION. AS A RESULT...
A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PR/USVI NEXT WEEK
WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREA AT NIGHTS AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PORTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 10/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFT 10/18Z OVER NW PR...AFFECTING
TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 10/23Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MAINLY
SE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFT 10/15Z WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SEA STATE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 78 / 20 20 20 10
STT 90 81 89 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST SAT OCT 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
AMERICA ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A CUT-OFF LOW JUST SOUTH
OF HAITI. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST AND CROSS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WILL THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BLOCKING A
CUT-OFF LOW ON MONDAY AND A SECOND TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FROM
INVADING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...BUT A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM THE
YUCATAN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DURING THE WEEK THE FOCUS OF
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD HISPANIOLA WITH RIDGING CONTINUING INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. DRY AIR WILL INVADE THE MID LEVELS LATER
TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURNING AFTER WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
AND SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN BUT NOT CHANGE DIRECTION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES
AND THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO RECEIVED GOOD SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...BUT EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO A FEW
PIN POINTS IN THE PUERTO RICAN INTERIOR. A LITTLE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE EVENING BRINGS SOME CLEARING.
MORE SHOWERS WILL FORM ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO
AND THEN ON MONDAY MORNING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND AS A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE COMES OUT OF THE ATLANTIC. GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW AFTER THIS WILL BRING ONLY MODEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OR DISTINCT LOWER LEVEL FEATURES TO BRING DISTINCT
TROUGHS OR WAVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HZ WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA BUT VSBY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-22 KT.

&&

.MARINE...UNDER RELATIVELY STEADY CONDITIONS WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS. NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HEAT STILL CONTINUES FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
TODAYS HIGH OF 93 AND LOW OF 79 WILL MAKE THE FIRST 10 DAYS THIS
MONTH THE HOTTEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 86.8
DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF
OCTOBER 2009 AND WAS 85.5 DEGREES. IN FACT THE LAST 30 DAYS HAVE
ALSO BEEN THE HOTTEST ON RECORD...85.1 DEGREES...THE PREVIOUS
HOTTEST 30 DAYS ENDING ON THIS DATE OCCURRED IN 2013.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 78 92 / 20 20 60 60
STT 81 90 80 90 / 20 20 70 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST SUN OCT 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN HOT TEMPS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA HAS PROVIDED SOME
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
SINCE MIDNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SAHARAN
AIR LAYER CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES
AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND MID-UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL PUSH PATCHES OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. AS A
RESULT...A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PR/USVI
WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREA AT NIGHTS AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HZ WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BUT
VSBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY
FM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...STEADY MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FEET
AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 80 / 20 30 30 30
STT 90 81 90 79 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN OCT 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
FLOW THAT BECOMES NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD A PLACE GENERALLY NOT FAR
TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK THE CENTER WILL SHIFT TO OVER CUBA. A
DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...BUT WILL VERY SLOWLY
MOISTEN AFTER MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PATCHY MOISTURE IN GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING SPORADIC SHOWERS BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM 700 TO 575 MB PREVENTED
ALMOST ALL CONVECTION FROM FORMING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS DID FORM
OVER BAYAMON AND TOA BAJA AND LATER IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER VALLEY FROM
LARES TO THE COAST. A FEW OF THESE HAD VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE
SHOWERS JUST WEST OF SAN JUAN HOWEVER DID NOT LAST MORE THAN ONE
HOUR. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST WHILE AN AREA
OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND THE USVI AND THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE ISLAND LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE GFS STILL SHOWS DRYNESS
IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAIN. NEVERTHELESS MOISTURE
PEAKS ON MONDAY AT 12/12Z AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AT 13/18Z AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. AT PRESENT IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE...BUT STABILITY WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY TO COUNTERACT THE MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING MONDAY AT 850 MB...AND THIS WILL WEAKEN WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. ONLY VAGUE FEATURES IN MOISTURE AND WIND FLOW ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GFS EVEN PAINTS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE THE ECMWF HAS BUT SLIGHT COOLING. WINDS DO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE EASTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT WHERE THE MEX-MOS YESTERDAY
FORECAST THE END OF 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR SAN JUAN BEGINNING
THURSDAY...IT IS NOW POSTPONING UNTIL SUNDAY. HENCE IT LOOKS LIKE
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN STORE FOR THE ISLANDS. IN FACT
THIS HAS BEEN THE HOTTEST 40 DAYS ENDING ON OCT 10 ON RECORD FOR
SAN JUAN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HZ WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
BUT VSBY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN PR ARE IMPACTING
MAINLY TJBQ/JMZ THRU AT LEAST 22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
E-SE AT 10-22 KTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PR TERMINALS. VCSH BETWEEN USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 12/05Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. MARINERS
MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 6 FEET
IN THE OUTER-MOST SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 80 90 / 30 30 30 30
STT 81 90 79 89 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

It was a big mistake.Gusty Deleited it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON OCT 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. THEN
TUTT WILL ESTABLISH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MEANDER ALOFT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PR...WHILE IT
REMAINED MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE USVI. HOWEVER...BY MID AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR
AND OVER ARECIBO. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AROUND THE AGUADA AND
RINCON AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN HALF OF
PR DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ AND TJBQ WHICH WILL
HAVE POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDS AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP IN THE GENERAL
VCNTY BTWN 12/18Z AND 12/22Z AND AGAIN AFT 13/17Z. BRIEF SHRA
CAUSING VCSH ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY. MTN OBSCURATIONS TIL 13/03Z
IN PR. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-20 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S. SEA CONDITIONS
WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 79 91 / 50 50 30 30
STT 79 90 79 89 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST TUE OCT 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL THEN ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS
WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS WITH
COASTAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOW
LEVELS WITH THE MID LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN FACT...ACCORDING WITH THE LATEST GFS AND
WRF GUIDANCE...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL VALUES MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THEREFORE UNDER RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
AND ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATED
BY DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/
TISX/TKPK/TNCM THROUGH 13/16Z. MOUNTAIN OBSC AND SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR
BTWN 13/16Z-13/23Z....POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
ALSO...TJSJ MAY OBSERVE VCSH/VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY SFC
WINDS AT 10-15KT AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 13/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEA CONDITIONS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 79 / 50 30 30 30
STT 91 79 89 78 / 50 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

It was a big mistake.Gusty Deleited it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON OCT 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. THEN
TUTT WILL ESTABLISH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MEANDER ALOFT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PR...WHILE IT
REMAINED MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE USVI. HOWEVER...BY MID AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR
AND OVER ARECIBO. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AROUND THE AGUADA AND
RINCON AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN HALF OF
PR DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ AND TJBQ WHICH WILL
HAVE POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDS AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP IN THE GENERAL
VCNTY BTWN 12/18Z AND 12/22Z AND AGAIN AFT 13/17Z. BRIEF SHRA
CAUSING VCSH ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY. MTN OBSCURATIONS TIL 13/03Z
IN PR. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-20 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S. SEA CONDITIONS
WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 79 91 / 50 50 30 30
STT 79 90 79 89 / 50 50 40 40

Ok for the work you have already done here... you should not even said a mistake our Superman