Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
TO THE WEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
...BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THE 29/12Z RAOB INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF ONLY 1.25 INCHES AND SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
INDICATED THAT WE HAVE A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE COMING IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR. A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES IN ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2
INCHES AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SAHARAN
DUST MOVES IN AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAAPS MODEL.

HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT THE WHOLE STORY...EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE DOES NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE WEEK. IT DOES INCREASE QUITE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. THIS MEANS THAT THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES...LINGERING A BIT INTO FRIDAY...THEN BECOMING MUCH MORE
STABLE ON SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURG THE PRD. LIGHT WNDS FM S 5-10 KTS BLO
FL150...BCMG FM W AND INCR TO 25-30 KTS BTW FL250-FL300. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 90 / 10 20 20 20
STT 79 89 80 90 / 20 20 40 40

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THEN...STABLE AND DRIER AIR
MASS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
PR/USVI REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS
CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL. AN OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
PASSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PR/USVI REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STABLE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PERIOD. VCSH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 78 92 78 / 20 20 20 30
STT 88 80 89 80 / 40 40 40 50

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY....MAINTAINING A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 94
DEGREES SO FAR IN SAN JUAN...TYING THE RECORD SET BACK IN 2001. IT
WAS ALSO DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR IN THE AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IF THEY DEVELOP. THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS WELL...SO THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF PR. HOWEVER THE REAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAAPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SAHARAN DUST WILL
BE MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...SO DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS ARE VERY POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THERE ARE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MORE MOIST AIR...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY
AFTER THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES. THIS MAY LEAVE US WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND SOME CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PRD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE ESE AT 5-15 KTS BLO FL150...BCMG FM NE-N ABV AND INCR TO
20-25 KTS NR FL350. FEW FAIR WX CU LINES W/NO SIG VERTICAL EXTENT EN
ROUTE BTW E PR AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 17 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 92 78 91 / 20 20 30 30
STT 80 89 80 89 / 30 30 50 50

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED OVER SAINT CROIX AND VIEQUES. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE FROM 1.5 THIS MORNING THROUGH
AROUND 1.8 INCHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...VERY DRY AIR...WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN EVEN DRIER AIR...IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 1.00
INCH BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE TO NONE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE VCSH AT LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. THEN...
VCSH EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-21Z AT TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH POSSIBLE MTN TOP
OBSCD OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT EXPECTED BELOW 20K FT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 20 30 30 40
STT 89 79 89 80 / 20 50 50 50

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW
WILL STAY AT OR EAST OF 60 WEST LONGITUDE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WILL FADE OVER THE WEEKEND AND REFORM OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM A HIGH 1400 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND THE FOCUS WILL MOVE TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND. IT THEN RETURNS TO NORTH OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK GRADIENTS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK EXCEPT OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOBE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER
WHICH TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY POPPED UP OVER PUERTO RICO
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AS TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR. THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO PASS
ON THURSDAY IS JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
59 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE WAVE IS MOVING AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
AFRICAN DUST IS SEEN FOLLOWING THE WAVE ON FRIDAY AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN LIGHT CONCENTRATIONS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A MARKED DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MUCH AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN
EASTERLY FLOW BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE LITTLE AND WILL ALSO GIVE LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT TO ANY
CONVECTION. WITH MID LEVELS PREDOMINANTLY DRY...CONVECTION WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN. HENCE THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS A WHOLE WILL BE
DRIER THAN NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES ATTM WITH NO SIG WX
IMPACTS. NO CHG TO PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...VFR CONDS FCST FOR
ENTIRE PD WITH PSBL VCSH/SHRA OR ISOLD TSRA BETWEEN 01/18Z-01/21Z
VCNTY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. PSBL BRIEF MTN TOP OBSC OVER THE W INTERIOR
PR. RECENT UPPER AIR DATA AND FCST SUGGESTS LGT WINDS 5-15 KTS BLO
FL150...BCMG LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL250. FEW DIURNALLY INDUCED
SHALLOW CU LINES QUICKLY STREAMING WNW BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS BUT
NO SIG VERTICAL DVLPMNT EN ROUTE ATTM. FEW -SHRA PSBL WITH CU
STREAMERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN TRANQUIL AND GENERALLY BELOW 5 FEET
EVERYWHERE. WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...MANY AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS ONLY. 4 FOOT SEAS ARE MOST LIKELY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 77 89 / 10 30 20 20
STT 79 89 79 89 / 50 50 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING AND OVER PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE DOESN`T HAVE TOO MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL COINCIDE
WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. THIS COMBINATION WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE....VERY DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
AS LOW AS 1.00 INCH BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE TO NONE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT
EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.



&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN TRANQUIL AND GENERALLY BELOW 5 FEET
EVERYWHERE. WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...MANY AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS ONLY. 4 FOOT SEAS ARE MOST LIKELY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 77 / 30 20 20 0
STT 89 79 88 77 / 50 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
ACCOMPANYING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/TROPICAL WAVE NOW
CROSSING PUERTO RICO. RECENT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWED SHALLOW
MOISTURE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS WITH OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTED THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THEN QUICKLY SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION SO FAR TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WAS IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND QUICKLY
MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT OF SHORT DURATION WITH SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED STREAMING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

OVERALL DRYING TREND STILL ON TAB FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
SUPPRESS/LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION... THE EXTENSIVE
AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TO MAINTAIN
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE BUT HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS...FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
MAY LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS IF ANY OVER THE EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS IN SIGHT FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND ENTIRE PERIOD BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SO FAR HAS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
TRIGGER ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLD TSRA AND
PSBL MTN TOP OBSCR IN NW PR TIL ARND 02/22Z. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 02/22Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST PARTICULATES FORECAST TO SPREAD WESTWARDS ACROSS THE FLYING
REGION MAY LIMIT SLANT RANGE VISIBILITIES TO 7 TO 12 MILES AFT 03/12Z.
LLVL WINDS BLO 20 KFT ESE 10-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AND GENERALLY 3 FEET
OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OF 17 KTS OR LESS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH OVERALL SEAS 4 FEET OR
LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 76 88 / 10 10 0 0
STT 78 91 77 88 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST FRI OCT 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS PR/USVI REGION. SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN HAZY SKIES AND ALSO SUPPRESS THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY AIR MASS
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IN
FACT...CIMMS/MIMIC PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED A DRIER AIR MASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES ADVECTING OVER PR/USVI
EARLY THIS MORNING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING PRECIPITABLE
WATER DROPPING TO 1.1 INCHES AND A STRONG CAP INVERSION ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ANY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE PREVAILING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IN ADDITION...AN
UNUSUAL SAHARAN DUST EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD DUST PARTICLES OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING HAZY SKIES
AND REDUCING SOMEWHAT THE VISIBILITIES. UNDER A GENERALLY DRY AIR
MASS AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
MONDAY. THEN...THE UPPER LOW/TUTT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WEAKENS
ALLOWING THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO FADE AWAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DUST HAZE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 03/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL BETWEEN 2-4 FEET. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS OF 16 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SMALL NNE SWELLS WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 91 78 / 0 0 0 10
STT 91 78 88 78 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST FRI OCT 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW WILL HOVER ALONG
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN GRADUALLY OPEN
INTO A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE ISLANDS WITHOUT MOVING APPRECIABLY. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ON SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
THE SOUTH.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RE-BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA UNTIL IT FILLS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 35 NORTH BY NEXT FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY. AS
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK THE TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED DUST FROM THE
SAHARA AS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER...SAL FOR SHORT...MOVED INTO THE
AREA TODAY...LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO AS LITTLE AS 7 AND 8 MILES
AT MANY LOCATIONS. THIS AREA OF SAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AND DIMINISH ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THE LOWEST THEY HAVE
BEEN ALL YEAR AS LITTLE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO GROW IN THE LOWER
HUMIDITIES AND DUSTY ATMOSPHERE WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW ONCE INCH. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO INCREASE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY AND
THERE IS MODERATE SUPPORT AT 700 MB FOR INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THEN. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ON THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FORM FRIDAY
NEXT THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TROUGHINESS AT UPPER LEVELS
THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN SUPPRESSING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DUST HAZE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
P6SM. SOME CLOUDINESS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO JUST
UNDER 5 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT. IN THE
CARIBBEAN...SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 77 89 / 0 0 0 5
STT 76 87 77 88 / 0 0 0 5

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST SAT OCT 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ASSOCIATED
LOW MEANDERING EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA HOLD THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF TROUGH ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. BASED ON LATEST DUST MODEL OUTPUT...
SKIES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS SAL
WEAKENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 900MB WILL COLLAPSE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...ALLOWING A SHARP
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM...NEAR TWO INCHES...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THURSDAY`S MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE PASSAGE.

THEREFORE UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS W PR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....
AND TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. OVERALL TROUGHINESS AT
UPPER LEVELS NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUST
HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA...VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN P6SM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS AFTER 04/11Z FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 04/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 1-3 FT. SOME INCREASE IN WINDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY RAISE SEAS SLIGHTLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 77 / 0 0 10 10
STT 90 77 88 77 / 0 0 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT OCT 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONNECTED BY A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE SLIDES WESTWARD BUT RETURNS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND MAY EJECT A LOW NEAR THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...LOW PRESSURE AT 40 WEST LONGITUDE IS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST...BECOME AN
INVERTED TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY MID WEEK...AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA GREATLY WEAKENED ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
VERY MODEST MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA WITH LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA GENERATING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. PRESSURE
LOWERS SLOWLY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
A WEAK LOW FORMS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. ALSO THE LAST OF THE
SAHARAN DUST WILL LEAVE THE AREA TOMORROW...MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW CLOUDS WERE SEEN TODAY UNDER HAZY SKIES AND A
FEW TINY SHOWERS DEVELOPED UNDER THEM. THE SHOWERS WERE VERY
SHORT-LIVED AND LIKELY LEFT NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS BEFORE 3 PM AST.
ONE MORE DRY DAY IS EXPECTED BEFORE MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE
STRONGLY. HOWEVER NO STRONG FEATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...EITHER
IN THE UPPER OR LOWER ATMOSPHERE...OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO ENHANCE
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE SURE TO FORM. LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. ONCE MOISTURE RETURNS...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. BY
FRIDAY WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS WILL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOISTURE AT SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. DUST HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLYING AREA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. WINDS FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KNOTS BELOW FL100...BCMG LIGHTER WITH LAND
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BENIGN WITH NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED NEXT 10 DAYS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 77 89 / 0 0 10 10
STT 78 88 79 89 / 0 0 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST SUN OCT 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY. WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE IS FORECAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAZY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW RIDGE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. BASED ON LATEST DUST MODEL
OUTPUT...SKIES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS SAL WEAKENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900MB WILL COLLAPSE LATE MONDAY
AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ALLOWING A SHARP INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSISTENTLY NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK.
THEREFORE UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN OF A FEW
TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS SW PR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS AT UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE SW ATLC WILL CROSS
THE AREA NEXT WEEK ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DUST HAZE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO ESE AT AROUND 5-15 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 05/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH TODAY THEN BUILD 3-5 FT MON IN MIXED
ENE WIND WAVES AND NNE SWELLS. THEN SEAS DROP 2-4 FT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 0 10 10 40
STT 89 79 89 79 / 0 10 10 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST SUN OCT 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...TWO LOWS ARE PINCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FIRST LOW JUST EAST OF
GUADELOUPE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHEAST. THE SECOND LOW OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL CROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER
MODERATE CUT-OFF LOW TO CROSS THE MONA PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE GFS
SHOWS A WARM-CORE LOW FORMING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA SAVE
FOR LIGHTER WINDS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...BETTER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON EAST NORTHEAST
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY AND CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE MID LEVELS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND MOVE NORTHWEST. IT COULD
INJECT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AND THE FOLLOWING MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA VERY MUCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SHOWERS HAVE APPEARED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND
FEW IF ANY ARE EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS SOMEWHAT FOR
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE NOT ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 06/12Z. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT MONDAY DOES NOT BRING IN
VERY MUCH MOISTURE COMPARED TO MONDAY NIGHT AND THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE GFS SOLUTION FOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY
WITH RESPECT TO THE WEAK FEATURES AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA...BUT
NOT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THESE LOCAL FEATURES ARE ALSO
NOT AS STRONGLY DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...THE
DIFFERENT POSITIONS OF THESE LOWS CROSSING OVER THE AREA SHOULD
NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST VERY MUCH...AS THEY APPEAR TO DRIVE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE OR DIVERGENCE AT THE 250 MB LEVEL.
THEREFORE IN SPITE OF THIS FLUID SITUATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE DOWNWIND
CORNER OF PUERTO RICO AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
1.7 INCHES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK THE WEEK AFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AT 10-15 KT AFTER 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONTROLLED. SEAS WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 77 87 / 0 10 40 40
STT 78 88 78 88 / 0 0 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST MON OCT 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES SOUTH. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TODAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN NO WEATHER WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SAHARAN DUST HAZE CONTINUE TODAY. THE SAHARAN DUST
CONCENTRATION AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS DOMINANT FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR TUESDAY.
THIS CHANGE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE MOVING IN
AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AND MAYBE WEDNESDAY WHERE MORE INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE WAVE TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HOWEVER THETA-E IS DECENT ON
THURSDAY JUST BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH ARE
POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND TKPK AFT 06/15Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST...BECOMING FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT AFTER 06/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE THEN WEAKEN TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRES PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5 FT MON-TUE IN MIXED WAVES AND
NNE SWELLS THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT TUE NIGHT ON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 0 40 40 40
STT 88 79 88 79 / 0 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST MON OCT 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES SOUTH. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATED THE LOCAL REGION. LATEST 06/12Z TJSJ
SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ONLY 1.15 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN
AREA OF MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VCSH ARE POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND TKPK THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
TO AROUND 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 76 89 / 40 40 40 40
STT 79 88 79 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 PM AST MON OCT 6 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION IS
HELPING TO CREATE A LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND ALSO ADVECTING PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
NORTHERN LEEWARDS.SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS BEING ENHANCED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF SAINT
CROIX. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES PREVAILED WITH
NO PRECIPITATION NOTED OVER LAND...AS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OR PUERTO RICO QUICKLY DIMINISHED JUST
AFTER SUNSET.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ALL SUGGEST A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE APPROACH OF
A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS SO
FAR EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATEST AEROSOL PRODUCTS ALSO SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING OF THE SAL AND SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST 07/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SUGGESTS PWAT STILL BELOW 1.50 INCHES BUT SLIGHTLY INCREASING...
MEANWHILE THAT OF TKPK AND MACM BOTH WERE SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST WITH
VALUES GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME AS IT DID ALREADY SUGGEST
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST TUE OCT 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST IS FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS MOVING IN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AND AROUND THE USVI TODAY. ALSO...THE
INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS
STEADY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MAYBE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE MOIST AIR REMAINS OVER
THE USVI...CAUSING SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS TO HOW
MUCH IMPACT IT WILL HAVE IN THE LOCAL WEATHER. AT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR
EAST NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST...THIS MEANS THAT SINKING
MOTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THETA-E AT 850MB. ALSO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST AT BEST AND MOSTLY STAYING
OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...NOT QUITE MAKING IT TO WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...HAVING SAID THAT...WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR...SOUTHERN...AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA AT THE
LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ. AFT 07/16Z...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SW PR AND THIS MAY CAUSE
VCTS AT TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH 07/22Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH SOME SEA-BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS MAINLY AT 17 KNOTS OR LESS...STRONGER NEAR
SHOWERS...AND SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED TODAY. PASSING SHOWERS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SOME MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 89 77 / 20 30 30 30
STT 89 78 88 78 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST TUE OCT 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SURROUNDING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS FIRST AFFECTED
SAINT CROIX BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT. ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
WIND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LATEST TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 25K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 77 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 88 78 87 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1005 PM AST TUE OCT 7 2014

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS
DIMINISHED BY LATE EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. THE PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS FLOW STILL HOWEVER
BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WAS
OBSERVED. EXPECT THE INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION TO HELP MAINTAIN A PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL HOWEVER
STILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. STILL ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS REGION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE TUTT LOW. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SHORT TERM FORECAST FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH SEEM TO
BE IN PHASE WITH THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED OCT 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD
PR BY THU THEN WEAKEN. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF TUTT WILL
MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING THROUGH TODAY WITH
SLIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THU WITH PASSAGE OF TUTT INDUCED SFC TROF.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TODAY ON THE SOUTH COAST ON NNE STEERING
WINDS. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE CNTRL CORDILLERA AND
REMAIN STATIONARY DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE. ON FRI...THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SRLY WITH NRN
SLOPES/NCNTRL COAST MORE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH THE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SLP`S AND THUS LACK OF
FORCING WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND WILL
BE MORE OF THE HIT AND MISS VARIETY. OVERALL...PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES BUT HUMIDITY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PR...MAY LEAD TO VCTS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR TJPS
AND TJMZ BTWN 08/17Z-21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES
UNDER A COL REGION. OTHERWISE...WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THE ENTIRE
5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 2-4 FT AND AT TIMES 1-3 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 86 77 / 30 10 10 10
STT 81 80 81 80 / 30 10 10 10