MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
AMZ710-260400-
1029 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AST...
AT 1025 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER WAVES...LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS.
LAT...LON 1864 6456 1888 6601 1951 6570 1951 6416
$$
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...AND IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST MODELS
SHOW VERY LIGHT WINDS...SHIFTING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY
AND REMAINING LIGHT AND WESTERLY UNTIL FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD BE LINGERING AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER SOME
VERY LIGHT WINDS...IF ANY...SLOWLY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHICH IT COULD BE AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP US
UNDER SOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A VERY LIGHT
STEERING FLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.
AS OF NOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN THE AREA IN WHICH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS VERY POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE STEERING FLOW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP...WOULD MOVE FROM THE
WEST TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TODAY...GIVING US A
CHANGE FROM THE USUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LOCATION AND MOVEMENT.
WHICH MEANS THAT WE MAY OBSERVE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MORE TO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVE TO THE EAST OR TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ACCORDING TO THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SUGGEST A LIGHT AND VARIABLE STEERING
FLOW DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS...BUT THEN CHANGING AND
AGREEING WITH THE GFS FOR A MORE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR A
FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT ON TUESDAY...LEAVING US
WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 26/16Z AND WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ
AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 26/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE SE TO
15 KNOTS BUT WILL SHIFT AFT 26/12Z UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WILL NOW EXPIRE AT 6 AM AST. THE ADVISORY FOR
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL WATERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
AROUND 5 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 60 10 20 30
STT 88 80 87 78 / 30 10 20 40
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...AND IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST MODELS
SHOW VERY LIGHT WINDS...SHIFTING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY
AND REMAINING LIGHT AND WESTERLY UNTIL FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD BE LINGERING AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER SOME
VERY LIGHT WINDS...IF ANY...SLOWLY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHICH IT COULD BE AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP US
UNDER SOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A VERY LIGHT
STEERING FLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.
AS OF NOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN THE AREA IN WHICH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS VERY POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE STEERING FLOW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP...WOULD MOVE FROM THE
WEST TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TODAY...GIVING US A
CHANGE FROM THE USUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LOCATION AND MOVEMENT.
WHICH MEANS THAT WE MAY OBSERVE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MORE TO
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVE TO THE EAST OR TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ACCORDING TO THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SUGGEST A LIGHT AND VARIABLE STEERING
FLOW DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS...BUT THEN CHANGING AND
AGREEING WITH THE GFS FOR A MORE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR A
FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT ON TUESDAY...LEAVING US
WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 26/16Z AND WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ
AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 26/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE SE TO
15 KNOTS BUT WILL SHIFT AFT 26/12Z UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WILL NOW EXPIRE AT 6 AM AST. THE ADVISORY FOR
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCAL WATERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
AROUND 5 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 60 10 20 30
STT 88 80 87 78 / 30 10 20 40
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT SPINNING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS ITS MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CUT
OF LOW IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N. A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTED BY THE TUTT.
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA IS CENTERED
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N58W. THIS SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.
GPS-MET OBS SYSTEM INDICATED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HAVE FALLEN AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY BEFORE MID-WEEK. LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH DIURNAL INDUCED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS A
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
JUST VCTS AS PROBS OF EXPERIENCING TSTM AT ANY SPECIFIC AIRPORT
IS STILL VERY SLIM.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HAVE GRADUALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...SMALL EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 88 / 10 20 40 40
STT 78 88 78 87 / 10 20 50 50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT SPINNING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS ITS MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CUT
OF LOW IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N. A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTED BY THE TUTT.
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA IS CENTERED
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N58W. THIS SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.
GPS-MET OBS SYSTEM INDICATED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HAVE FALLEN AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY BEFORE MID-WEEK. LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH DIURNAL INDUCED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS A
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
JUST VCTS AS PROBS OF EXPERIENCING TSTM AT ANY SPECIFIC AIRPORT
IS STILL VERY SLIM.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HAVE GRADUALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...SMALL EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 88 / 10 20 40 40
STT 78 88 78 87 / 10 20 50 50
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Folks in the Northern Leewards,be aware of the rains as they say at outlook.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 695 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 695 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Still watching if any rain from the remnants of Ophelia will reach the Northern Leewards.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE BIG PICTURE SINCE THE
REMNANTS OF OPHELIA ARE STILL TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST...AS IT HAS
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND THE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AT 27/06Z...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA SEEM TO BE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ITS CENTER IS AROUND 19N AND
59W...JUDGING FROM THE 08Z ASCAT...WHICH ACTUALLY PASSED OVER THE
REMNANTS OF OPHELIA AT 00:45Z. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO
THE LOCAL WEATHER...SINCE IT IS DOMINATING THE WIND FIELD IN THE
AREA...GIVING US VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BRIEFLY DIPPING DOWN TO
UNDER 1.7 INCHES FOR TODAY...WHILE THE NAM NEVER GOES UNDER 1.8
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER TODAY...THERE IS AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS THAT THE PW VALUES WILL INCREASE AND STAY AROUND
1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS.
0 TO 6 KM AVERAGE WIND IS FROM THE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KTS. THAT IS WHY THE FORECAST IS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.
EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN OF MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE SEEMS
TO BE A SHIFT IN WINDS ON FRIDAY...BECAUSE AT THAT TIME...OPHELIA
IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...GIVING US SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 27/16Z AND WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS INTERIOR PR AND POSSIBLE MVFR TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT
27/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND THERE IS ONLY A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 77 / 20 40 40 20
STT 88 78 87 79 / 20 50 50 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE BIG PICTURE SINCE THE
REMNANTS OF OPHELIA ARE STILL TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST...AS IT HAS
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND THE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AT 27/06Z...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA SEEM TO BE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ITS CENTER IS AROUND 19N AND
59W...JUDGING FROM THE 08Z ASCAT...WHICH ACTUALLY PASSED OVER THE
REMNANTS OF OPHELIA AT 00:45Z. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO
THE LOCAL WEATHER...SINCE IT IS DOMINATING THE WIND FIELD IN THE
AREA...GIVING US VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BRIEFLY DIPPING DOWN TO
UNDER 1.7 INCHES FOR TODAY...WHILE THE NAM NEVER GOES UNDER 1.8
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER TODAY...THERE IS AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS THAT THE PW VALUES WILL INCREASE AND STAY AROUND
1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS.
0 TO 6 KM AVERAGE WIND IS FROM THE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KTS. THAT IS WHY THE FORECAST IS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.
EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN OF MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE SEEMS
TO BE A SHIFT IN WINDS ON FRIDAY...BECAUSE AT THAT TIME...OPHELIA
IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...GIVING US SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 27/16Z AND WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS INTERIOR PR AND POSSIBLE MVFR TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT
27/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND THERE IS ONLY A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 77 / 20 40 40 20
STT 88 78 87 79 / 20 50 50 20
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 735 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...CENTERED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 735 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...CENTERED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
In other words,more rain this afternoon and evening for parts of PR.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1108 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER VISIBLE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SHOWED SMALL CU LINES WITH ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWERS SPIRALING
AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA AND REACHING
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED GPS
IPW DATA AS WELL AS LATEST 12Z TJSJ AND MACM UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED
PWAT VALUES REMAINED BETWEEN 1.80 AN 2.00 INCHES...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND
500 MILLIBARS. INHERITED FORECAST AND REASONING LOOKS GOOD FOR
NOW WITH NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
REGION WITH FEW-SCT PASSING LOW CLDS AND SHRA W/ISOLD CB EN ROUTE
BTW ERN PR...USVI...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. LATEST UPPER AIR
SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 5-15
KTS FM W-NW BLO 20K FT BCMG MORE NORTHERLY VCNTY OF NRN LEEWARDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1108 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER VISIBLE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SHOWED SMALL CU LINES WITH ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWERS SPIRALING
AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA AND REACHING
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED GPS
IPW DATA AS WELL AS LATEST 12Z TJSJ AND MACM UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED
PWAT VALUES REMAINED BETWEEN 1.80 AN 2.00 INCHES...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND
500 MILLIBARS. INHERITED FORECAST AND REASONING LOOKS GOOD FOR
NOW WITH NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
REGION WITH FEW-SCT PASSING LOW CLDS AND SHRA W/ISOLD CB EN ROUTE
BTW ERN PR...USVI...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. LATEST UPPER AIR
SOUNDING ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 5-15
KTS FM W-NW BLO 20K FT BCMG MORE NORTHERLY VCNTY OF NRN LEEWARDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THE AIRCRAFT
FINDS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THE AIRCRAFT
FINDS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING TUTT JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC. BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED TUTT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
TO OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SPIRALING AROUND
THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA AND REACHING THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. AT THIS TIME...DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE STORM MOTION OF THESE CELLS ARE
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY. SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...AS THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLVING PATTERN AND IF OPHELIA DEVELOPS AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR AT LEAST TIL 27/22Z. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR AND MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING SHRA/TSRA AND
LOW CLDS OVR INTERIOR AND ALSO AROUND TJMZ...TJPS. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITE AFT 27/22Z...EXCEPT FOR TNCM AND TKPN IN NRN
LEEWARDS WHERE MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL AT LEAST TIL 28/03Z DUE TO
OCNL RAINS BANDS FM REMNANTS OF OPHELIA.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BUT MAY INCREASE IF THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA RE-ORGANIZE. MARINERS
SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO MORE THAN 6 FEET AND NO MORE THAN 12 KNOTS
ALTHOUGH WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 89 / 40 50 20 30
STT 78 88 78 86 / 50 50 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING TUTT JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC. BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED TUTT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
TO OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SPIRALING AROUND
THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA AND REACHING THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. AT THIS TIME...DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE STORM MOTION OF THESE CELLS ARE
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY. SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...AS THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLVING PATTERN AND IF OPHELIA DEVELOPS AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR AT LEAST TIL 27/22Z. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR AND MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING SHRA/TSRA AND
LOW CLDS OVR INTERIOR AND ALSO AROUND TJMZ...TJPS. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITE AFT 27/22Z...EXCEPT FOR TNCM AND TKPN IN NRN
LEEWARDS WHERE MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL AT LEAST TIL 28/03Z DUE TO
OCNL RAINS BANDS FM REMNANTS OF OPHELIA.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BUT MAY INCREASE IF THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA RE-ORGANIZE. MARINERS
SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO MORE THAN 6 FEET AND NO MORE THAN 12 KNOTS
ALTHOUGH WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 89 / 40 50 20 30
STT 78 88 78 86 / 50 50 20 20
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
...OPHELIA REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 60.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
...OPHELIA REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 60.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America=Watching rain from TD Ophelia
There was a quake near the Virgin Islands this afternoon. See the details at Geology forum on the Eastern Caribbean Seismic activity thread.
viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&p=2197810#p2197810
viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&p=2197810#p2197810
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America=Watching rain from TD Ophelia
8 PM TWD:
THE PREVIOUS REMNANTS OF OPHELIA HAVE REGENERATED INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS OF 2100 UTC. T.D. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 60.5W...OR ABOUT 150 NM ESE OF THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING WNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE NRN WINDWARDS ISLANDS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
58W-62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 56W-63W. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.
Hardly any wind today in San Juan.
THE PREVIOUS REMNANTS OF OPHELIA HAVE REGENERATED INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS OF 2100 UTC. T.D. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 60.5W...OR ABOUT 150 NM ESE OF THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING WNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE NRN WINDWARDS ISLANDS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
58W-62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 56W-63W. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.
Hardly any wind today in San Juan.
Code: Select all
8 PM (0) Sep 27 83.1 (28.4) 75.4 (24.1) 29.91 (1012) Calm
7 PM (23) Sep 27 82.2 (27.9) 76.5 (24.7) 29.9 (1012) Calm
6 PM (22) Sep 27 85.5 (29.7) 75.9 (24.4) 29.88 (1011) ENE 3
5 PM (21) Sep 27 83.3 (28.5) 75.7 (24.3) 29.88 (1011) ENE 3
4 PM (20) Sep 27 85.1 (29.5) 78.4 (25.8) 29.87 (1011) Calm
3 PM (19) Sep 27 83.7 (28.7) 78.1 (25.6) 29.89 (1012) ENE 6
2 PM (18) Sep 27 88.7 (31.5) 75.4 (24.1) 29.93 (1013) Calm
1 PM (17) Sep 27 83.5 (28.6) 79.0 (26.1) 29.94 (1013) ENE 5
Noon (16) Sep 27 80.2 (26.8) 77.4 (25.2) 29.97 (1014) Calm
11 AM (15) Sep 27 80.1 (26.7) 77.9 (25.5) 29.97 (1014) Calm
10 AM (14) Sep 27 79.3 (26.3) 76.1 (24.5) 29.97 (1014) Calm
9 AM (13) Sep 27 75.6 (24.2) 74.3 (23.5) 29.97 (1014) Calm
8 AM (12) Sep 27 75.6 (24.2) 74.3 (23.5) 29.95 (1014) Calm
7 AM (11) Sep 27 75.0 (23.9) 73.8 (23.2) 29.93 (1013) Calm
6 AM (10) Sep 27 75.0 (23.9) 73.8 (23.2) 29.92 (1013) Calm
5 AM (9) Sep 27 76.8 (24.9) 76.8 (24.9) 29.92 (1013) Calm
4 AM (8) Sep 27 83.5 (28.6) 75.9 (24.4) 29.9 (1012) Calm
3 AM (7) Sep 27 80.4 (26.9) 74.7 (23.7) 29.91 (1012) Calm
2 AM (6) Sep 27 80.1 (26.7) 74.5 (23.6) 29.92 (1013) Calm
1 AM (5) Sep 27 80.2 (26.8) 74.8 (23.8) 29.93 (1013) Calm
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
expat2carib
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 458
- Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
- Location: Sint Maarten
SxmDCOMM - Office of Disaster Management Advises Populace to Be Cautious for Possible Flooding in Low Lying Areas
By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2011 19:33:06 -0400
News Release
Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org
For Immediate Release: Tuesday, September 27, 2011/N272
Office of Disaster Management Advises Populace to Be Cautious for Possible Flooding in Low Lying Areas
GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) is advising the population of the South side of the island to be cautious for possible flooding in low lying areas as well as street flooding.
At 5.00pm on Tuesday the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded a low pressure system to Tropical Depression (TD) Ophelia just East of the Leeward Islands.
The NHC says that TD Ophelia could become a Tropical Storm on Wednesday and is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of two to four inches over the Northern Leeward Islands.
TD Ophelia has regenerated and is over 100 miles East South East of the Leeward Islands; maximum sustained winds are 30 miles per hour with higher gusts; the TD is moving West North West at five miles per hour and is expected to make a gradual turn to the Northwest and North-Northwest within the next 48 hours.
The possibility exist for shower activity along with thunder storms throughout Wednesday, therefore ODM is advising that in case of heavy rainfall, to avoid low lying areas; look out for possible street flooding; and if the rainfall is persistent, while driving along hill sides, watch out for possible rock falls.
# # #
Roddy Heyliger (roddyheyliger at gmail.com; 00 599 581-6323)
Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten
By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2011 19:33:06 -0400
News Release
Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org
For Immediate Release: Tuesday, September 27, 2011/N272
Office of Disaster Management Advises Populace to Be Cautious for Possible Flooding in Low Lying Areas
GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) is advising the population of the South side of the island to be cautious for possible flooding in low lying areas as well as street flooding.
At 5.00pm on Tuesday the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded a low pressure system to Tropical Depression (TD) Ophelia just East of the Leeward Islands.
The NHC says that TD Ophelia could become a Tropical Storm on Wednesday and is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of two to four inches over the Northern Leeward Islands.
TD Ophelia has regenerated and is over 100 miles East South East of the Leeward Islands; maximum sustained winds are 30 miles per hour with higher gusts; the TD is moving West North West at five miles per hour and is expected to make a gradual turn to the Northwest and North-Northwest within the next 48 hours.
The possibility exist for shower activity along with thunder storms throughout Wednesday, therefore ODM is advising that in case of heavy rainfall, to avoid low lying areas; look out for possible street flooding; and if the rainfall is persistent, while driving along hill sides, watch out for possible rock falls.
# # #
Roddy Heyliger (roddyheyliger at gmail.com; 00 599 581-6323)
Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America=Watching rain from Ophelia
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WAS
MINIMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
OPHELIA HESITATES TO MOVES FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...BUT
LOOKS LIKE A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL FINALLY OCCUR
THURSDAY...HOPEFULLY. OPHELIA...ALTHOUGH IS FAR FROM OUR AREA...IS
DISRUPTING THE WIND FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS HAS INDUCE AN UNUSUAL SHIFT OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT ALMOST ALL LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL OPHELIA MOVES AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SLOWLY DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH PROMISE TO BRING A MORE TYPICAL
LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER PATTERN WITH A TRADE WIND FLOW ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 28/16Z AND WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS INTERIOR PR AND POSSIBLE MVFR TJSJ AND TJPS THROUGH
ABOUT 28/23Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 77 / 50 20 30 20
STT 86 78 87 78 / 50 20 20 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WAS
MINIMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
OPHELIA HESITATES TO MOVES FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...BUT
LOOKS LIKE A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL FINALLY OCCUR
THURSDAY...HOPEFULLY. OPHELIA...ALTHOUGH IS FAR FROM OUR AREA...IS
DISRUPTING THE WIND FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS HAS INDUCE AN UNUSUAL SHIFT OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT ALMOST ALL LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL OPHELIA MOVES AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SLOWLY DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH PROMISE TO BRING A MORE TYPICAL
LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER PATTERN WITH A TRADE WIND FLOW ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 28/16Z AND WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS INTERIOR PR AND POSSIBLE MVFR TJSJ AND TJPS THROUGH
ABOUT 28/23Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 77 / 50 20 30 20
STT 86 78 87 78 / 50 20 20 30
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America=Watching rain from Ophelia
Another day with little wind as Ophelia is still east of us.That means the sea breeze once again will trigger heavy downpours in parts of PR this afternoon.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Caribbean - C America=Watching rain from Ophelia
Hi! I have been very busy in college these days but today I finally got some free time 
so I'm posting yesterday (September 27) temps in Central America:
-Belize experienced warmer than normal lows, in the rest of the region they were near normal.
-Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica experienced warmer than normal highs, the rest of the countries had near normal.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.3°C (46.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.7°C (54.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.0°C (44.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.1°C (71.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.0°C (71.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.7°C (87.3°F) Warmest since June 30
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)
so I'm posting yesterday (September 27) temps in Central America:-Belize experienced warmer than normal lows, in the rest of the region they were near normal.
-Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica experienced warmer than normal highs, the rest of the countries had near normal.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.3°C (46.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.7°C (54.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.0°C (44.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.1°C (71.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.0°C (71.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.7°C (87.3°F) Warmest since June 30
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America=Watching rain from Ophelia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF THE TUTT NOW
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
HAS CONTINUED TO CREATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS TROPICAL STORM
OPHELIA. SLOWLY MOVING OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO TAKE A NORTH NORTHWEST
TURN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
AN INCREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND OPHELIA WILL CONTROL
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WITH OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST...
EXPECT AN CONTINUED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE OVERALL LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. LATEST UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSIS STILL SUGGESTED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INDUCED STEERING
FLOW EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...SOUTHERN SLOPES AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT AND
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT VENTILATION FOR SOME ISOLATED BUT ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTED
THIS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END
OF THE WEEK
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
AS OPHELIA WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE FA
BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. BY THEN...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MORE ON THE EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. FOR NOW
AND LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD AN INCREASE IN SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND
SOUTH SECTIONS OF PR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR AND MTN TOP
OBSCR...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ AND TJPS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT TNCM AND TKPN WHERE
MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DUE TO OCNL RAINS BANDS OF TS OPHELIA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFT 29/22Z...AND ONLY A FEW PASSING
SHWRS EMBEDDED IN THE NRLY TRADES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
WINDWARD AREAS. VCSH INCLUDED AFT 22Z FOR TJSJ... TJBQ...TIST AND
TISX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 90 / 20 30 10 20
STT 77 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 30
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF THE TUTT NOW
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
HAS CONTINUED TO CREATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS TROPICAL STORM
OPHELIA. SLOWLY MOVING OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO TAKE A NORTH NORTHWEST
TURN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
AN INCREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND OPHELIA WILL CONTROL
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WITH OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST...
EXPECT AN CONTINUED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE OVERALL LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. LATEST UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSIS STILL SUGGESTED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INDUCED STEERING
FLOW EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...SOUTHERN SLOPES AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT AND
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT VENTILATION FOR SOME ISOLATED BUT ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTED
THIS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END
OF THE WEEK
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
AS OPHELIA WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE FA
BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. BY THEN...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MORE ON THE EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. FOR NOW
AND LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD AN INCREASE IN SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND
SOUTH SECTIONS OF PR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR AND MTN TOP
OBSCR...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ AND TJPS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT TNCM AND TKPN WHERE
MVFR CONDS WILL BE PSBL DUE TO OCNL RAINS BANDS OF TS OPHELIA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFT 29/22Z...AND ONLY A FEW PASSING
SHWRS EMBEDDED IN THE NRLY TRADES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
WINDWARD AREAS. VCSH INCLUDED AFT 22Z FOR TJSJ... TJBQ...TIST AND
TISX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 90 / 20 30 10 20
STT 77 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 30
&&
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America=Watching rain from Ophelia
Plenty of rain in Dominica. Amazing photos from member Tampa Bay Hurricane that is there and shared with us at the Ophelia thread and I am reposting here.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.shtml
http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/all- ... -dominica/
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.shtml
http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/all- ... -dominica/
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America=Watching rain from Ophelia
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LIMITED OVERNIGHT....WITH ONLY SOME
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO....ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGES TOO MUCH. TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...FINALLY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INDUCE A TRADE WIND FLOW TO ESTABLISH DURING THE
WEEKEND. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEK...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN OUR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 29/16Z AND WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS INTERIOR PR AND POSSIBLE MVFR TJSJ AND TJPS THROUGH
ABOUT 29/23Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 89 78 / 30 10 20 0
STT 87 78 88 79 / 50 30 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LIMITED OVERNIGHT....WITH ONLY SOME
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO....ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGES TOO MUCH. TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...FINALLY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INDUCE A TRADE WIND FLOW TO ESTABLISH DURING THE
WEEKEND. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEK...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN OUR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 29/16Z AND WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS INTERIOR PR AND POSSIBLE MVFR TJSJ AND TJPS THROUGH
ABOUT 29/23Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 89 78 / 30 10 20 0
STT 87 78 88 79 / 50 30 30 30
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 54 guests