Well, it doesn't take an invest for us to have some potentially serious weather around here...a wave by any other name may NOT be the same
PR people, Barbara, Gloria...get your cisterns ready and find a good book or three...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1131 PM AST Wednesday Jun 28 2006
Update...the anticipated tropical wave and now located near 61.5 west...
will continue to move west-northwest across the Caribbean waters during the
overnight hours through late Thursday. Moisture trailing behind
this wave is estimated to linger around the local area at least
through Saturday for active weather conditions for the next few
days. Locally heavy rains and isolated to scattered thunderstorm
activity is expected to affect most of the local islands. There is
a good potential for flash flooding over areas with poor drainage
and urban and small streams. Also...mudslides are possible over
saturated terrains. Residents and visitors are urged to remain
cautious along the rivers and streams...and monitor the progress
of this weather conditions over the next few days.
&&
Previous discussion...
discussion...
deep layered low-trough to our north across the open Atlantic this
afternoon is forecast to retrograde to the northwest over the next 48
hours...which will aid in generating more unstable conditions
aloft as well as draw approaching tropical wave moisture and
dynamics northwest into the local area. Approaching "large" tropical
wave is in fact two waves...one tilted south-southwest to north-northeast in the
horizontal...moving across the Lesser Antilles at this hour...and
a second weakening wave along 52/53w at this hour. These two waves
and associated weather will move west-northwest through the east and NE Caribbean
next 48 hours to produce very active weather and potential for
isolated flash flooding and areas of river flooding. Presently it
appears that the east...se...and east interior sections of PR...as well
as St Croix will receive the focus of heavy precipitation beginning early
Thursday through Thursday evening...and then with the second wave
passage largely south of the area...but close enough...Friday
during the day...for a continuation of high rain chances.
Lingering middle level moisture will maintain unstable conditions on
Saturday...with diurnal effects likely to yield strong convection
west and northwest PR. Winds across the area will increase late Thursday
through Friday with and behind first wave...and may yield
sustained winds near 25 knots at highest elevations. Sufficient
southwesterly shear aloft and high surface pressure across the region are
not expected to present favorable atmospheric conditions for this
wave complex to organize significantly...although the pressure
gradient across the region will increase as the surface troughing
to our north moves northwest and allows Atlantic high to build partially into the
area.
