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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19041 Postby msbee » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:37 am

I don't like that track either. I am getting very nervous
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19042 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:14 pm

msbee wrote:I don't like that track either. I am getting very nervous

Keep cool Barbara relax we have time to track Irma even if i'm agree with you that this cane is pretty worrying. Anyway, let's wait and see if the track could deviate even if i have to admit that this a bit stressfull. Schools should open Monday and the week could be really problematic if the track continues to drift wsw or even w or wnw and if the IRMA could reach cat 4 status. Let's keep our fingers crossed! :)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19043 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:17 pm

TS Irma to become major hurricane threatens Caribbean Islands including Dominica
By TDN Wire Staff
:rarrow: http://thedominican.net/2017/08/hurrica ... lands.html
August 31, 2017 3:34 A.M

Roseau, Dominica (TDN) Tropical storm Irma was on Wednesday night expected to turn into a major hurricane and threaten islands of the Eastern Caribbean.
Forecasters are predicting that Irma will by Friday be packing winds of up to 120 miles per hour even as it continues to churn towards the Islands and turn into a major hurricane.
Key to the forecast is the prediction that the storm will make a hard turn to the South before making landfall. The countries ultimately affected will depend on how far South it turns. By Wednesday night there was a growing sense that it could make a direct hit on any of the countries from Barbados to the South through Dominica, Guadeloupe and Antigua to the North.
Late last night Tropical storm Irma was located at 16.4 degrees North and 31.2 degrees West or about 430 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands. Based on its current speed it is expected to be in the Region by Monday morning after becoming a hurricane on Friday while still in the Atlantic.
Although the different models of the course of the storm are not yet uniform, forecasters note that it will become better defined once the full extent of the turn South is determined.

Authorities in the Islands have begun to warn residents to be on the lookout claiming that this storm is a “once in a fifty year event.”

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19044 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:57 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19045 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:23 am

Look at that forecast behind Irma, not really to worry but... let's keep an eye on that... suspicious twave! :eek: :oops: :roll:
Islanders please keep watching the tropics in case of. Hopefully we have again a lot time to monitor this twave! :)



WEATHER WATCH: 10th Storm/Hurricane Jose to Form Behind Hurricane Irma?
01 Sep 2017 |
Published in Soualiga News II |

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – The 10th named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to form over the weekend behind Hurricane Irma according to the GFS long-term forecast weather model. Currently the National Hurricane Center (NHC) out of Miami is monitoring a Tropical Wave (TW) that emerged off continental Africa on Thursday which may become the 10th named storm.

The TW will move towards the islands of the Eastern Caribbean next week following a similar track according to the GFS forecast model bringing this system near the Leeward Islands over the weekend of Saturday, September 9th.

This forecast is not set in stone, as the system at this point in time is still a TW. On Thursday, the NHC gave the TW a 40 per cent chance for development over the next five days.

It is another system that has to be watched over the coming week.

SOUALIGA NEWSDAY REPORT

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19046 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:24 am

Gustywind wrote:Look at that forecast behind Irma, not really to worry but... let's keep an eye on that... suspicious twave! :eek: :oops: :roll:
Islanders please keep watching the tropics in case of. Hopefully we have again a lot time to monitor this twave! :)



WEATHER WATCH: 10th Storm/Hurricane Jose to Form Behind Hurricane Irma?
01 Sep 2017 |
Published in Soualiga News II |

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – The 10th named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to form over the weekend behind Hurricane Irma according to the GFS long-term forecast weather model. Currently the National Hurricane Center (NHC) out of Miami is monitoring a Tropical Wave (TW) that emerged off continental Africa on Thursday which may become the 10th named storm.

The TW will move towards the islands of the Eastern Caribbean next week following a similar track according to the GFS forecast model bringing this system near the Leeward Islands over the weekend of Saturday, September 9th.

This forecast is not set in stone, as the system at this point in time is still a TW. On Thursday, the NHC gave the TW a 40 per cent chance for development over the next five days.

It is another system that has to be watched over the coming week.

SOUALIGA NEWSDAY REPORT




Link: http://www.soualiganewsday.com/soualiga ... -irma.html
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19047 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:37 am

San Juan PR
514 AM AST Sat Sep 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will remain fairly rich over the area through
the next 7 to 10 days with the exception of a few narrow dry
slots that pass through. This will allow scattered to numerous
showers through the period. Hurricane Irma was located about 1500
miles east of Saint Thomas and was moving west at 15 mph. A turn
toward the west southwest is expected tomorrow. Interests in the
northeast Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system as
some impacts appear very likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...
A mid to upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area
today but will erode by Sunday and Monday as an upper level trough
will drift westward across the region. An induced low level
trough will continue to cross the region today. A tropical wave
with axis near 60 west will continue to move across the eastern
Caribbean and local islands later today through early Sunday. The
prevailing northeast wind will become more southeasterly later
today through Sunday as the wave crosses the region.

For today, passing low level clouds and trade wind showers will
continue to affect the coastal waters and the north and east coastal
sections of the islands during the rest of the early morning hours.
Shower activity will diminish by late morning leaving partly cloudy
to mostly sunny skies and overall fair weather conditions over most
of the islands. However...sufficient moisture is in place to
combine with local and diurnal effects to support afternoon
convection over parts of the central and west sections of Puerto
Rico, as well as parts of the San Juan metro area where a few
showers will remain possible. Expect the shower and thunderstorm
development to be focused mainly across western and central
sections of Puerto Rico where periods of locally heavy rainfall
will be possible. Mostly isolated shower activity is expected
across the U.S. Virgin Islands as mostly fair weather skies should
prevail.

On Sunday and Monday, expect a return of the prevailing easterly
wind flow with occasional passing early morning showers followed by
diurnally induced afternoon convection which should be mainly over
the central and west interior sections of Puerto Rico and isolated
showers elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
On Tuesday the first effects of Hurricane Irma are expected as
modest lower level winds turn northeast. Weak moisture bands from
Irma are expected on Tuesday and moisture will increase over the
forecast area through Wednesday night. At this time the most
significant effect of Hurricane Irma, based on the current track
forecast by the National Hurricane Center, will be seas on the
Atlantic side of the forecast area. These will turn hazardous
beginning Tuesday even if the hurricane deviates from this track
by a significant amount. Other impacts will be primarily
determined by the track of the Hurricane, which has been
oscillating across the Atlantic east of the Virgin Islands,
according to the GFS and ECMWF, by some 400 miles. Certainly
preparations must be made for strong winds and areas of heavy
rains that could arrive as early as Wednesday. On its current
course the worst of the impacts should be over by late Thursday.
Current models leave little to no drying in the forecast, however,
and the GFS has another tropical system approaching the eastern
Caribbean on Saturday morning of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conds durg prd. SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr
FL022...FL040...FL080. Passing -SHRA/SHRA enroute btw islands and
ovr the ATL and Caribbean waters. VCSH at most local terminals
overnight except TJPS/TJMZ in prevailing ENE low level winds. Sfc
wnd lgt/Vrb to calm bcmg fm E-NE at 10-15 kts aft 02/14z. Aft
02/17z...SHRA/TSRA fcst mainly ovr central and western PR with
VCTS at TJMZ/TJPS and psbl TEMPO TSRA at TJMZ...VCSH elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...A cold front that has stalled out in the Atlantic to
our north has nevertheless sent some swell of 13-15 seconds and 4
to 6 feet into the local Atlantic waters. After these subside late
in the weekend, the first precursor easterly swell of similar
period from Hurricane Irma begin to arrive Sunday night. Seas
will increase through Wednesday. Worst case scenario indicates
seas may exceed 25 feet in the northeast portion of the forecast
area by Wednesday. Models generally agree that seas will rise to 7
feet no later than noon Tuesday. Although small craft advisories
may come down on Friday morning, hazardous seas may return by
Saturday with the possible entrance to the Caribbean of the next
system.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 91 81 / 30 30 30 30
STT 90 81 89 81 / 40 40 40 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19048 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:38 am

...IRMA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT REMAINS A POWERFUL
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 41.8W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19049 Postby msbee » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:18 am

Go North, Irma!
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19050 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:08 am

11 AM advisory:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

...IRMA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AS A SMALL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 43.3W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19051 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:24 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 14...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

Corrected to add west in motion paragraph

...IRMA MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19052 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA HEADING WESTWARD WITH 110 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 46.2W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19053 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:43 am

...IRMA'S INTENSITY CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND IS BACK TO
CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 47.5W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19054 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:15 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
550 AM AST Sun Sep 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture from a tropical wave will bring active
weather to the islands today with showers, thunderstorms and areas
of urban and small stream flooding possible. Hurricane Irma has
been upgraded to Category 3 and is now less than 1200 miles east
southeast of Saint Thomas. On its current track major hurricane
Irma will begin to turn flow toward the northeast over the area on
Monday and the first moisture bands will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area on Tuesday with passage through the
forecast area--now in our local Atlantic waters--Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Conditions remain wet into the weekend and early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...
Tropical moisture associated with a tropical wave will continue
to produce showers as well as thunderstorm activity across the
region today. During the morning hours, most of the shower
activity is expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the east
half of Puerto Rico, as well as isolated thunderstorms across the
local waters. Model guidances are indicating total precipitable
water (TPW) near or above the climatological value for September
and instability increasing during the afternoon hours. Under this
unstable and moist pattern showers and thunderstorms are expected
to increase in intensity and frequency across the islands during
the afternoon hours. The heaviest activity is expected across the
interior and northwest sections of Puerto Rico. A moist pattern is
expected to continue through the first period of this week, but
slots of dry air will move from time to time across the islands
which will limit shower activity for a short period each day. For
that reason, expect passing showers across windward area at times
during the overnight and morning hours, followed by diurnally
induced afternoon convection which should be mainly over the
central and west sections of Puerto Rico and isolated showers
elsewhere. In addition, under this weather pattern temperatures
will reach the high 80s and low 90s with heat index surpassing 100
degrees Fahrenheit each afternoon across the coastal areas.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

Major Hurricane Irma will sweep just east of the Leeward Islands
and into or very close to the local forecast area. High surface
pressure is expected to build to the north on Wednesday that will
restrain the hurricane from moving further north and model
guidances appear to be converging on the track laid out by the
National Hurricane Center. The current track will bring heavy
rains and strong gusty winds to the islands. Any further shift to
the left of the track as it crosses our area, as has happened in
the last 24 hours, would bring the hurricane across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands with destructive winds and rains.
Thursday will see the retreat of the hurricane in any event, but
will also begin a process of creating tremendous moisture
advection in southerly flow behind it and over the area. On friday
a tropical wave will move into the Caribbean well south of us.

After Friday the GFS paints a grim picture for the local islands.
It forms a low out of the moisture to the south on Saturday in
the southeast Caribbean sea and develops it into a tropical system
while it moves it north northwest directly over Puerto Rico.
There, ostensibly due to the proximity of an upper level trough to
the northeast and Hurricane Irma to the northwest, it stalls
directly over the area for several days with heavy rains. This
appears right now to be a worst case scenario and if it verifies
it would likely be the worst we have seen in more than 14 years.
Although plausible, it presents a situation that the model may not
handle very well and so must be considered doubtful at this time.

The ECMWF solution, however, is completely different. As Irma
moves away on Thursday it develops a tropical system that was
approaching 50 west at around 14 north and moves it west northwest
until late Saturday when it turns more northerly and moves away
from the area and across 20 west before it reaches 55 west.

Both solutions have their sticking points: the GFS that it
develops very quickly and then stalls directly over the islands,
and the ECMWF that is turns the tropical system directly across
the path that Irma left just 5 days before. The concerning facts,
though, are that the Caribbean remains extremely moist and this
flow continues over the local area throughout the time from Irma`s
passage to the middle of next week and that tropical cyclone
development would be highly favored by minimal shear and warm
Caribbean seas. Therefore this situation could have very serious
consequences and bears close monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA are expected to move from time to time at
TJSJ/TIST TISX/TKPK/TNCM. This activity will bring SCT-BKN cld
lyrs btwn FL020 and FL060. SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop
across central and wrn PR btwn 03/15-23z. Therefore, MVFR or even
IFR conditions are expected at TJMZ/TJBQ thru this period. TJSJ
can expect VCTS, as SHRA/TSRA develop downwind from El Yunque.
Elsewhere VCSH/VCTS expected. Sfc winds are calm to lgt/Vrb and bcmg
E-SE at 10-15 kts aft 03/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Effects from Hurricane Irma will make seas hazardous no
later than Monday night. Even with the track just outside of the
forecast area, as it was earlier last night, local models
forecast seas in excess of 20 feet in most of the Atlantic waters
with winds of a major hurricane over the northeast portion where
successful navigation by most vessels would be highly unlikely.

Seas rise through Thursday but should subside to less than 7 feet
by Friday night. At this time, it is not clear that these
relatively tranquil conditions will last more than a few hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 81 91 81 / 50 50 50 40
STT 89 80 90 80 / 50 50 50 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19055 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:18 am

For Luis and others in Puerto Rico, I count 14/51 ECMWF ensembles that impact your area, which is an increase from the 12z run:

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19056 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:37 am

I am not liking at all the southern trend of the guidance and the system.Puerto Rico surely will get impacts from Irma in the form of Tropical Storm force winds along with copius rains that can cause massive flooding.That is assuming the 5 AM forecast track verifies.Any adjustment more south will mean much more impacts with Hurricane force winds reaching the island.People here since Saturday have been jamming the supermarkets,Depot stores etc getting all they need if the worst case scenario comes.But I can tell you that the power grids here are not very good so we can expect blackouts that may last days depending how severe it turns out.Let's see how all unfolds in the next couple of days to really know what Puerto Rico will face.

I hope all the friends in the Leewards,BVI and U.S Virgin Islands are preparing and hoping for the best.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19057 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:30 am

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... ntilles.fr%
YELLOW VIGILANCE CYCLONE GUADELOUPE
2Fpratique%2Fmeteo%2Fcyclone-irma-vigilance-jaune-des-dimanche-matin-446907.php&edit-text=
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19058 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:46 am

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19059 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:44 pm

Things are getting dsangerous for the Leewards.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 51.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES





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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Irma

#19060 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:38 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
436 AM AST Mon Sep 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A seasonable weather pattern is expected to prevail
through Tuesday. Hazards associated with Hurricane Irma will be
observed across the forecast area Wed-Thu. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice
given by officials.

.SHORT TERM...Today thru Wednesday
TUTT Low and and associated trough will continue to shift north
and west of the region today through Tuesday with weak ridge to
build aloft once again by Wednesday. Surface ridge pattern
extending across the forecast area will gradually weaken through
Wednesday as the major Hurricane Irma is forecast to approach the
northern Leewards Islands, then track close to or just northeast
of the forecast region based on the most recent guidance from the
National Hurricane Center. Sufficient moisture transport in the
prevailing easterly to support showers and thunderstorm
development once again today. However, expect the activity be
focused more across the interior and western sections of PR with
mostly isolated showers and fair weather skies elsewhere. On
Tuesday the prevailing easterlies should quickly become more
northeasterly as Hurricane Irma will continue to modify the
synoptic pattern as it tracks northeast of the area through mid
week based on the most recent guidance from the National Hurricane
Center as well as model guidance. Somewhat drier conditions in
most areas on Tuesday, but a gradual increase in moisture
transport across the region will support afternoon convection
across the islands. This will lead to periods of showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the islands and coastal waters. By
Tuesday evening Tropical Storm conditions will be possible across
portions of the coastal waters.

Weather and marine conditions are forecast to rapidly deteriorate
by Wednesday as the major Hurricane Irma is expected to track
close to or just northeast of the region. By then Hurricane
conditions will be possible across the forecast area with more
frequent convective rainbands, and squally conditions expected to
impact the region. Irma is expected to remain a major hurricane
when it moves closer to the region by Wednesday. Irma could also
cause dangerous winds, storm surge and rainfall impacts on the
islands. Keep in mind, we are now approaching the peak of the
season and everyone should ensure that they have their Hurricane
plan in place.

.LONG TERM...Thursday thru Tuesday

Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the upcoming week and could directly affect the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. Residents should monitor the progress of
Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical storm or
hurricane watches could be issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico later today.

Based on the latest forecast from the NHC, the northern USVI,
Culebra and the eastern half of Puerto Rico are more likely to
experience winds of 45-55 MPH with gusts over 65 MPH. Rainfall
accumulations between 4 and 8 inches possible from Wednesday
Morning thru Thursday Night. At this time the most significant
effect of Hurricane Irma, will be seas on the Atlantic side of
the forecast area. For additional information about Irma: TCPAT1
and TCDAT1; Spanish versions:
TCPSP1 and TCDSP1.

Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and
listen to advice given by officials.

On Friday and Saturday lingering moisture associated to the
Hurricane Irma will slowly decrease across the region. Therefore
expect a more typical showers and thunderstorms to develop over
the western and northwest portions of Puerto Rico every
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conds durg prd. However SHRA/ Isold TSRA
are expected to continue to affect the coastal waters btw PR and
the NRN Leeward islands. Mtn top obscr psbl ovr the E interior sections
of PR due to passing SHRA/Low clds. SCT-BKN cld lyrs en route btw
islands NR FL022...FL050...FL090. Fm 04/17z-04/22z...SHRA/Isold
TSRA ovr ctrl and W interior of PR...with VCSH or VCTS psbl at
TJSJ/TJBQ/TISX/TIST. SFC wnds LGT/VRB bcmg at 10-15 kts aft 04/14z.
Low level winds will continue fm E at 5-15 Kts BLO FL180.

&&

.MARINE...Seas 4 to 6 feet and winds 10 to 15 knots will continue
through midweek. Seas and winds will deteriorate by midweek as
Hurricane Irma moves closer to the eastern Caribbean. Seas 25-30
feet across the Atlantic offshore waters and 15-20 feet near
shore.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 81 / 30 20 30 70
STT 90 80 92 79 / 40 20 40 70
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