Caribbean - Central America Weather

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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19241 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:57 pm

SYNOPSIS...A mid level ridge will continue to dominate the local
region for the next several days. Areas of low level moisture
embedded in the east northeast trades will continue to move across
the region for the next several days inducing brief periods of
passing showers across the local islands.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...
The remnants of a frontal boundary are located across the Atlantic
waters just to the north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Latest satellites images depicted a layer of low to mid
level clouds across the region, producing variable to mostly
cloudy skies across the local islands. However, terminal Doppler
radar detected only brief passing showers in association with
this cloudiness. Under a northeast low level wind flow, quick
passing showers are possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Vieques, Culebra as well as across the eastern and northern
sections of Puerto Rico tonight and Friday morning. Some shower
activity is also expected to develop across western and interior
sections of Puerto Rico Friday afternoon. On Saturday, small
patches of low level moisture associated with the frontal remnants
to our north will result in an increase in trade wind shower
activity over portions of the local islands.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...From previous discussion...
Strong surface high pressure across the north western Atlantic
will move eastward as a low pressure and associated cold front
exit the U.S. east coast by mid week. This will induce a moderate
to fresh trade winds across the region during the forecast period.
These winds will transport patches of low level moisture to the
local area. At this time, no significant weather events are
forecast to affect the region in the long term.

AVIATION...BKN-OVC cld layer across the region with FEW -SHRA
en route mainly btw PR and the nrn Leeward Islands...but overall VFR
durg entire prd at all terminals and across flying area. Cld lyrs
btw FL030-FL060...bcmg SCT-BKN aft 02/06z...mostly SKC abv. Sfc
winds fm NE nr 15 kt with occasional gusty winds...bcmg 5-15 kts aft
01/23z. No sig operational AVN wx impacts attm.

MARINE...Seas slowly subsided across portions of the local
waters early today, but will increase once again tonight as
another pulse of a northerly swell will arrive and spread across
the Atlantic waters and local passages through at least Friday.
The northeasterly swell along with choppy wind driven seas will
generate hazardous sea conditions for the next several days. Seas
will therefore remain hazardous for the rest of the week an into
the weekend.

Dangerous surf conditions with moderate to high risk of rip currents
will continue for most of the local beaches though Friday. Please
refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast issued by the WFO San Juan
PR for update and additional info.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 74 82 / 20 40 50 50
STT 72 83 73 83 / 20 40 50 50
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19242 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:36 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Fri Feb 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridge will continue to dominate the
local region through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure
system will continue to promote a moderate to fresh trade wind
flow across the region. These winds will continue to transport
patches of low level moisture across the islands from time to
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Rainy conditions prevailed across the northern half portion of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. Satellite imagery
depicted patches of shallow clouds approaching the region. A mid
level ridge continue aloft and is supporting a strong trade wind
cap. Also, a ridge to the north of the islands will continue to
favor cool air advection across the region, which will bring periods
of shallow clouds and passing showers from time to time. Later
during the afternoon hours, a patch of surface moisture will bring
additional shallow convection across eastern Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as across the southwestern sections of
Puerto Rico.

Under an east to northeast wind flow, quick passing showers are
possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra and east
Puerto Rico each night and morning during the weekend, as the model
guidance continues to suggest the combination of low level
convergence and an increase in the available surface moisture. On
Sunday, a patch of dry air will limit showers through the morning
hours.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
Seasonal weather pattern will prevail across the region as upper
level ridge maintains control of the weather. Trade wind showers
will affect the local islands from time to time, but overall dry
weather conditions are expected. No significant weather events are
forecast to affect the region throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Satellite imagery depicted patches of clouds en route to
the islands, which will produce brief periods of BKN-OVC ceilings
across the region. Some -SHRA/SHRA are expected mainly across
terminals this morning, except across TJPS/TISX. SHRA are expected
to increase btwn 02/18z-22z. SCT-BKN clouds btw FL025-FL060 will
continue from time to time. Sfc winds fm E-NE at 7-15 kts and gusty
near shower.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoy continue showing seas between 7 to 9 feet as
a north swell affects the local waters. As a result, small craft
and high surf advisories will continue in effect. Hazardous marine
conditions are expected to continue through the weekend.
Refer to latest coastal hazard message product (CFWSJU) for more
information.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 82 73 / 40 50 50 10
STT 84 73 84 73 / 40 50 50 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19243 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:12 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
504 PM AST Fri Feb 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper level ridge will continue to dominate
the local region through the weekend. At the surface, high
pressure system will continue to promote a moderate to fresh trade
wind flow across the region. These winds will continue to
transport patches of low level moisture across the islands from
time to time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...
A surface high pressure across the Atlantic waters will continue
to promote an east to east northeast wind flow across the region
for the next couple of days. Patches of low to mid level clouds
embedded in the trades are expected to move across the region from
time to time, producing variable cloudy skies and passing showers
across the local islands and surrounding waters tonight and
Saturday morning. Some shower activity is also expected to
develop across western and interior sections of Puerto Rico
Saturday afternoon. Late Saturday and Sunday, a patch of dry air
will move across the region limiting the shower activity across
the local islands. No significant changes are expected in the
present weather pattern for the next several days.


.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...From previous discussion...
Seasonal weather pattern will prevail across the region as upper
level ridge maintains control of the weather. Trade wind showers
will affect the local islands from time to time, but overall dry
weather conditions are expected. No significant weather events are
forecast to affect the region throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Satellite imagery depicted patches of clouds en route to
the islands, which will produce brief periods of BKN-OVC ceilings
across the region. Some -SHRA/SHRA are expected mainly across
the U.S. Virgin Islands terminals as well as across TJSJ until at
least 03/00Z. Latest TJSJ sounding indicate and east to east wind
flow from the surface to around 13k feet, becoming light and
variable between 13-24k feet and then westerly and stronger aloft

&&

.MARINE...Local buoy are showing seas between 6 to 7 feet as a
north swell affects the local waters. As a result, small craft
remain in effect across most of the local waters. Hazardous
marine conditions are expected to continue through the weekend.
Refer to latest coastal hazard message product (CFWSJU) for more
information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 73 83 / 50 50 10 30
STT 73 84 73 84 / 50 50 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19244 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:10 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
510 AM AST Sat Feb 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Under a ridge pattern aloft local weather will be dominated by
low level moisture advection. A surge of moisture will increase
the frequency of showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico through the morning
hours. A drier air mass will filter from the northeast over the
region limiting shower activity this afternoon into early Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Variably cloudy skies prevailed
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. Isolated
to scattered showers were noted over Saint Thomas and Saint John in
the U.S. Virgin Islands and across the east and northeast sections
of Puerto Rico. Satellite images depicted a patch of low level
moisture embedded in the trade winds moving across the region early
this morning. This area of moisture will continue to produce
cloudiness with isolated to scattered showers across the islands
through noon. Afterward, A very dry air mass is expected to
encompass the region. As a result, mostly sunny skies with pleasant
weather conditions are expected to prevail for the rest of the day.

High pressure system will continue to dominate the weather
conditions Sunday and Monday. Winds will shift more easterly by
Sunday night into Monday. These easterly winds will transport low
level moisture Sunday afternoon, increasing somewhat the chances for
showers across the region.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...
The region will continue under a ridge pattern through much of the
week. A cold front is forecast to move well north of the region
the first part of the upcoming week. However, the islands will
continue under a trade wind pattern associated with the migratory
highs across the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, a seasonal weather
pattern will continue to prevail with trade wind showers from time
to time. Expect rain activity each day across the windward
sections of north and east PR as well as across the U.S. Virgin
Islands especially during the overnight and morning hours.
However, no significant weather events are forecast to affect the
region throughout the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VCSH expected across TIST, TISX, TJBQ and TJSJ through around
03/16Z. VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through
the forecast period. Low level winds will be mainly east northeast
at 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas between 5 and 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet are
expected to continue across the Atlantic Waters, Local Passages
and Caribbean Offshore waters this morning. Seas are forecast to
gradually improve this afternoon across the Caribbean Offshore and
coastal waters but the local Passages and Atlantic waters will
continue to observe hazardous marine conditions for small craft
operators. Hazardous seas are expected to continue most of the
upcoming week mainly across the Atlantic waters.

For the beach goers, life threatening rip currents will continue
across most of the beaches from the northwest to northeast coast
of mainland Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Refer to the latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) for
additional details.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 82 74 / 20 20 30 40
STT 83 72 83 73 / 20 20 20 50

&&
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19245 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:29 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
121 PM AST Sat Feb 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Currently a ridge is in control of the weather from
the low to upper levels of the atmosphere. These ridges of high
pressure as brought drier air over the region and suppressed
shower activity this afternoon. A fair weather pattern is expected
next week with an occasional trade wind shower across portions of
northern Puerto Rico and most of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.Short Term...Tonight through Monday...Mostly cloudy skies with
frequent passing showers across windward areas prevailed during
the morning hours, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon with
limited shower activity across the forecast area. Temperatures
were in the low to mid 80s at lower elevations and winds were east
northeast at 15 to 20 mph.

A mid to upper level ridge will continue to hold across the forecast
area through the forecast cycle. At lower levels, high pressure
systems north of the area will continue to yield a moderate to fresh
east northeast wind flow during the next several days with surface
fronts remaining north of the area. Latest guidance continues to
indicate limited moisture through at least Monday morning but
steadily increasing Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

As a result, continue to expect a generally fair and stable weather
pattern with some passing showers across north and east Puerto Rico
as well Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI particularly in the late
evening and early morning hours. By Monday afternoon and into
Tuesday, as low level moisture increases across the forecast area,
showers across windward areas will become frequent throughout the
day and night. Seasonable temperatures to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday..An upper level ridge will
remain over the region through the long term period thus a fair
weather pattern will prevail. This ridge will create a strong
trade wind cap which will limit shower activity but scattered
trade wind showers are possible across portions of northern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the long term period.

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the
forecast cycle with brief -SHRA/SHRA still possible at the Leeward
and USVI terminals as well as JSJ/JBQ. ENE winds 15-20 knots,
becoming at around 12 knots overnight


&&

.MARINE...Seas will range between 5 and 7 feet with occasional
seas reaching up to 9 feet across the Atlantic waters. Seas have
gradually diminished across the caribbean and local passages this
trend will continue through Sunday. Hazardous condtions still
remain for the north Atlantic waters with a small craft advisory
in effect until late Sunday. High rip currents risk for the north
facing beaches of Puerto Rico followed by Culebra, St. Thomas and
adjacent Islands, and St. Croix through late Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 74 85 / 30 50 50 40
STT 72 83 73 85 / 30 50 50 40

&&
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19246 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:26 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST Sun Feb 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical winter weather conditions will persist across the local
islands. Expect pleasant temperatures with embedded showers in
the trade winds across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the windward
sections of north and east Puerto Rico at times. Limited afternoon
convection is also possible across the southwestern sections of
Puerto Rico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. Very little shower activity was
observed during most of the night. However, latest radar and
satellite images shows an increase in low level moisture with
isolated showers beginning to affect the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Cloudiness with showers will continue to move west and will spread
across all Puerto Rico late this morning and this afternoon.

Surface high pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to
dominate the region next couple of days. This high pressure will
continue to produce moderate to fresh trade winds across the region.
These winds will transport patches of low level moisture across the
area from time to time, with better chances for showers expected on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...
A strong trade wind cap will limit convection across the region
as a ridge pattern aloft persist through the week. A seasonable
weather pattern with pleasant temperatures and trade wind showers
across the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the windward sections of
northern and eastern Puerto Rico are expected each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through
at least 04/12Z. An increase in cloudiness with shower activity is
expected after 04/12z as a patch of low level moisture affect the
local terminals. VCSH is then expected across TIST, TISX, and
TJSJ. Low level winds will continue mainly east at 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas will range between 5 and 7 feet with occasional seas
reaching up to 9 feet across the Atlantic waters and local
passages. Small craft advisories continue in effect. Seas are
forecast to slowly subside across the Caribbean waters later
tonight. Mariners can expect hazardous marine conditions across
the Atlantic water through most of the week.

For the beach goers, high rip currents risk from the northwest to
northeast coast of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St. Croix through
late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 74 84 74 / 50 50 40 40
STT 83 73 83 75 / 50 50 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19247 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:38 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 PM AST Sun Feb 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Although a ridge pattern aloft will hold through
the forecast cycle, low level moisture embedded in the trades
will continue to result in passing showers particularly across
windward areas each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...

For the remainder of the day mostly cloudy skies with scattered
showers across portions of northern Puerto and the interior with
east to northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Strong
trade winds along with low level moisture which moved in during
the overnight hours has caused showers across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin islands this morning. The 04/18 TSJU sounding shows
drier air still remains in the mid to upper levels from 800 to 200
mb this should hinder shower development by keeping showers
confined to the northern and the interior of Puerto Rico today.

Otherwise, Upper level ridge will continue to strengthen over the
area and create strong trade winds which will usher in patches of
low level moisture through Tuesday thus causing scattered showers
for the windward Islands and northern Puerto Rico during the
beginning of the week.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...

A mid to upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area much
of the forecast period with some weakening expected early next
week as a broad upper level trough develops across the central
Atlantic and amplifies into the eastern Caribbean. Surface high
pressure systems north of the area will continue to yield a
moderate to fresh east northeast wind flow during the next several
days with surface fronts remaining north of the area. Latest
guidance continues to indicate patches of low level moisture
moving across the forecast area at times through the forecast
cycle. Therefore, continue to expect a generally fair and stable
weather pattern with some passing showers across north and east
Puerto Rico as well Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI particularly in
the late evening and early morning hours. Seasonable temperatures
to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites
but terminals TJSJ, TJBQ could see brief MVFR conditions due to
passing SHRA that might move over the terminals. SFC winds will be
out of the east to northeast at 15 to 20 kts with high gust possible
while upper level winds turning to the west northwest at 18 kft to
46 kft with winds ranging from 50 to 80 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate to fresh east northeast winds will continue
to prevail across the local waters of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands as surface high pressure builds into the western
Atlantic and spreads across the region. The combination of a
northerly swell and local seas will result in hazardous marine
conditions particularly across the Atlantic waters and the local
Passages during the next few days. Seas will range from 4 to 6
feet increasing to 7 feet across the offshore waters overnight
into Monday. High rip currents risk for the Atlantic shorelines
continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 50 50 50 20
STT 73 84 73 85 / 50 50 50 20

&&
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19248 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:45 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
450 AM AST Mon Feb 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridge will continue to dominate the local
weather next several days. At the surface, high pressure system
will continue to produce moderate to fresh trade winds across the
region. These winds will continue to transport patches of low
level moisture across the area from time to time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A mid to upper level ridge will continue to build
over the Caribbean basin. A drier air mass will move quickly this
morning from the east across the USVI and PR. This will limit
trade wind showers across the regional waters and the eastern
coastal areas of the islands. However, a low level perturbation
moving across the southeastern Caribbean and associated band of
moisture across the Leeward islands is expected to reach the USVI
and eastern PR this afternoon and move across the islands through
early Tuesday morning. Therefore, the frequency of passing trade
wind showers will increase through this period. Minor ponding of
waters on roads an low lying areas is expected with this activity.
Residual moisture on Tuesday afternoon will result in mainly in
shower development over portions of west PR. Another quick drying
trend is expected on Wednesday, with limited shower development
over the islands and light trade wind showers moving at times in a
northeast wind flow across coastal areas of eastern PR and the
USVI.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...Strong high pressure
across the central Atlantic will is forecast to dominate the
northeast Caribbean. This will result in pleasant weather
conditions across the local islands with seasonal weather pattern
prevailing through the forecast period. No significant weather
events are forecast to affect the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
terminals through the forecast period. SCT-BKN cigs at FL050-FL080
expected across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters through at least
05/12z. -SHRA expected to develop across portions of western PR
between 05/18z-22z, impacting mainly the flying area of TJBQ/TJMZ.
East winds at 10-15 kt with gusts in the low 20s and sea breeze
variations after 05/14z. SHRA increases late in the forecast period
across the USVI and eastern PR terminals.

&&

.MARINE...Although seas below small craft advisory criteria are
occurring at nearshore waters of northern Puerto Rico, another
pulse of north swells will invade the local area later today. As a
result, small craft advisories will be in effect for the offshore
Atlantic waters and local passages. Seas between 5 to 7 feet and
winds up to 20 knots are expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 50 50 20 30
STT 84 73 85 73 / 50 50 20 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19249 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:52 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
423 AM AST Tue Feb 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure across the northeast
Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh east
to northeast trades for the next several days. Showers embedded
on the trades will reach at times the local islands. Seasonable
weather pattern expected to prevail through next week. Winds will
gradually increase by mid week and peak during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

A mid to upper level ridge will persist over the region through the
period. Surface high pressure across the north central Atlantic will
sink southwards into the central Atlantic,and aid in tightening the
local pressure gradient over the next several days. In the meantime,
a surge of low to mid level moisture with embedded showers will
continue to move westward across the region today. Some of the
showers will affect parts of the north and east coastal sections of
Puerto Rico and the adjacent islands during the early morning hours.
By late morning, activity and cloudiness should gradually diminish
leaving variably cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Local and diurnal
effects will however give way to afternoon showers, mainly on the
lee-side of the islands and in the form of streamers. Quick passing
showers will also be likely over parts of the north and east
sections of Puerto Rico during the evening and overnight hours
steered by the moderate east northeast wind flow.

Wednesday and Thursday...Expect periods of passing trade wind
showers and occasional clusters of low level clouds mainly during
the late evening and early morning hours. This will be followed by
partly cloudy and mostly fair weather skies during the rest of the
day,except for a chance of isolated to scattered showers mainly over
the central and west to southwest sections of PR, and downwind of
the adjacent islands as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

A wind surge is expected during the weekend as well as drier
conditions by Sunday into early next week. The region will remain
under ridge pattern aloft and under influence of a surface high
pressure across the Atlantic basin. Other than breezy east to
northeast winds...the overall weather pattern wont change that
much. Brief shallow passing showers during the night time and fair
weather skies during the daytime with limited shower development
during the afternoon hours. On Sunday, elevated fire danger
conditions are possible across the southern plains and southern
coastal areas of Puerto Rico, as low relative humidities and
breezy conditions are expected.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds durg entire prd. SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL025...
FL050..FL090 en route btw PR and nrn Leewards with embedded -SHRA/SHRA.
VCSH at TJBQ, TIST, and TISX with psbl TEMPO -SHRA at TJSJ til
o6/14z. SFC winds will continue from the E to ENE at around 10 kts
...brief gust to nr 20 kts w/passing SHRA. Wnd incr to 10 to 20
kts and hir gust 25-30 kts psbl aft 06/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...Northeast swell and wind driven seas will result in
choppy conditions across the regional waters. Small craft
advisories due to seas of 7-8 feet will be in effect for all
local waters except the southwestern coastal waters of PR. East to
northeast winds will continue at 15-20 kts.

Life threatening rip currents will continue through the weekend
across the north and eastern beaches of PR, Culebra and St. Croix.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 83 74 / 50 50 30 50
STT 85 73 85 74 / 50 50 30 50
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19250 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:28 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
445 PM AST Tue Feb 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A semi-permanent high in the central Atlantic will
maintain northeast to east trade winds through the period.
Slightly drier weather will continue through Wednesday then an
increase in moisture will increase the coverage of showers
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...
Cool and somewhat moist air continues to flow out of the central
Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. A weak disturbance will move
through with additional moisture Wednesday night and Thursday
morning followed by a second ripple with moisture on Friday
afternoon. Winds in the tail of a westerly upper level jet over
the area will increase Wednesday night through Saturday although
models suggest that this will only result in convergent flow over
the area and serve to keep mid and upper levels dry. High pressure
migrating into the Central Atlantic will keep moderate to fresh
trade winds across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through
the period and beyond.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...
At upper levels an east-west trough some 1500 miles east
northeast will sag south and extend west, so that its western tip
enters the northern portion of the forecast area by Tuesday night
of next week. Continued east northeast flow at 700 mb during the
intervening period will enhance cold air advection across the area
and lower the 1000-850 mb thicknesses by a few meters. The
additional sunshine to be seen after the moisture from Thursday-
Saturday passes through will balance out the cooler air so
temperatures across the area should see little change. Hence
slightly less shower activity will be seen even as trade winds
continue moderate to fresh and carry isolated to scattered showers
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the windward slopes of Puerto
Rico night and mornings and some scattered convection on the
leeward coastal plains in southwest and west Puerto Rico during
the afternoons each day well into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will continue for the remainder of the
06/18Z TAF period. Scattered -SHRA/SHRA across the SW PR and nrn
Leewards this evening. Brief MVFR expected at TNCM/TKPK. SFC winds
will continue from the E to ENE at around 15 to 20 kts with brief
gust to nr 25 kts w/passing SHRA. Max winds WSW 70 kt at FL410.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will increase as several swell surges from the
east northeast move through, generated by the fresh to strong
breezes over the Atlantic. The highest seas may exceed 10 to 12
feet in the local northeast outer Atlantic waters on Sunday. Small
craft advisories will remain up for most Atlantic and Caribbean
waters not sheltered from northeast swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 83 74 83 / 50 30 50 50
STT 73 85 74 84 / 50 30 50 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19251 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:25 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
534 AM AST Wed Feb 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure across the Atlantic basin
will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh east to
northeast trades for the next several days. Showers embedded on
the trades will reach at times the local islands. Main hazard
during the weekend will be the hazardous marine conditions as the
trade winds increase across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

A ridge pattern aloft support a strong trade wind cap which prevent
deep convection over the region. A surface high pressure across the
Atlantic ocean is promoting breezy conditions across the islands.
Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trades will move from
time to time through this morning. A dryer air mass is expected to
reach the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the afternoon
hours. As a result, expect a mixture of sunshine and clouds with
little or no shower activity through that period. Another
perturbation in the easterly trades will bring an increase in
showers and clouds by Thursday early morning.

A seasonal weather pattern will prevail through the work-week with
pleasant tropical winter temperatures. In addition, expect brief
periods of passing showers especially across eastern and northern
sections of Puerto Rico during the nights and early in the mornings,
followed by some shower activity over interior and western Puerto
Rico during the afternoons.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

No change from previous forecast. A wind surge will prevail across
the region through next week. Breezy trades will continue to carry
showers across the USVI and the northern and eastern portions of
Puerto Rico. Some showers could move further inland as winds
strengthen. Overall weather pattern will remain the same each
day, additional shower development during the afternoon hours is
expected across the west/southwestern portions of Puerto Rico and
downwind of the USVI. Overall, no significant rainfall amounts are
expected at the moment. However, the quick passing showers could
lead to minor ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail. -SHRA/SHRA embedded in
the trades are possible across the PR and nrn Leewards at times.
TJMZ can expect VCSH btwn 07/18-22z. SFC winds will continue from
the E-ENE at around 12 kt increasing at 15-20 kts with brief gust
near 25 kts aft 07/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Wind driven seas will result in choppy conditions
across the regional waters through next week. Small craft
advisories due to seas of 7-8 feet are in effect for all the local
waters except the southwestern coastal waters of Puerto Rico. Seas
up to 10 feet or higher are possible on Sunday across the offshore
Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage. East to northeast winds
will continue at 15-20 kts...increasing 20-25 during the weekend.

Life threatening rip currents will continue through the weekend
across the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra
and St. Croix. Other coastal areas of the islands including
Vieques and St. Thomas will have a high risk of rip currents late
in the week or during the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 73 / 30 60 60 40
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 50 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19252 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:03 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
345 PM AST Wed Feb 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central Atlantic
will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh east to
northeast trades across the region for the next several days.
Patches of moisture embedded in the trades will continue to
produce periods of showers at times across the local islands.
Hazardous marine conditions will remain as the main hazard across
the region for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...
An upper level ridge will continue to inhibit the development of
deep convection over the region for the next several days. A
surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will continue to
promoting breezy conditions across the local islands and surrounding
waters. Low level perturbations associated with the east northeast
trades are expected to move from time to time across the local
islands, inducing the development of passing showers mostly across
the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well as across the
eastern and northern sections of Puerto Rico tonight and Thursday
morning. The orographic effects will cause some cloudiness to
develop and move downwind Thursday and Friday afternoons. These
effects in combination with diurnal heating will cause some
showers across the southwestern quadrant of PR each afternoon. The
east northeast trades will also continue to promote pleasant
temperatures across the region for the next several days. Not
changes in this weather pattern is expected until at least the end
of the work-week.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...from previous
reasoning... A wind surge will prevail across the region through
next week. Breezy trades will continue to carry showers across the
USVI and the northern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico. Some
showers could move further inland as winds strengthen. Overall
weather pattern will remain the same each day, additional shower
development during the afternoon hours is expected across the
west/southwestern portions of Puerto Rico and downwind of the
USVI. Overall, no significant rainfall amounts are expected at the
moment. However, the quick passing showers could lead to minor
ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected during the next 24 hours. VCSH
possible across the local terminals at times today due to ISOLD/SCT
brief SHRA. More persistent but still brief SHRA expected after
07/22Z across northern PR and USVI, causing VCSH at TIST, TJSJ, and
TJBQ through 08/12Z. Winds will be from the ENE at around 15KT
gusting to about 25KT for the rest of today, but there will be sea
breeze variations at TJPS and TJMZ. Winds decreasing slightly
overnight but increasing once again to around 15KT and gusty.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions are expected to continue hazardous
until at least early next week. Wind driven seas will continue
to result in choppy conditions across the regional waters through
next week. Small craft advisories due to seas of 7-8 feet are in
effect for all the local waters except the southwestern coastal
waters of Puerto Rico. Seas up to 10 feet or higher are possible
on Sunday across the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada
Passage. East to northeast winds will continue at 15-20
kts...increasing 20-25 during the weekend. Life threatening rip
currents will also continue through the weekend across the
northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra and St.
Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 73 83 / 60 60 40 40
STT 74 85 74 84 / 50 40 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19253 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:49 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
556 AM AST Thu Feb 8 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
A surface high pressure across the Atlantic basin is promoting a
moderate to locally fresh east to northeast trade winds through
the weekend. Trade wind showers will reach at times the local
islands. Hazardous marine conditions will continue due to confuse
seas through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Ridge aloft will continue to keep overall stable conditions across
the region through the short term period. A broad surface high
pressure across the Atlantic Ocean will continue to promote moderate
to fresh trades today...breezy conditions are expected during the
weekend as winds increase up to 25 kt and possible higher. The same
weather pattern will prevail during the next couple of days...as
trade wind showers will persist under influence from high pressure
across the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, passing showers will continue
to stream over the islands at times through the forecast period.
Diurnally induced afternoon shallow convection is expected across
areas of west/southwest PR. Seasonable temperatures will prevail
across all islands with highs around the mid 80s across coastal
areas and lows ranging from the high 50s to low 60s across the
higher elevations.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...
Overall, the weather pattern will remain the same throughout the
long term period. A strong surface high pressure and a ridge
pattern aloft will dominate the local weather. Therefore, expect
breezy trades which are forecast to carry showers across the USVI
and the northern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico especially
during the evening and early morning hours. Then, some showers
could develop during the afternoon hours across the west/southwestern
portions of Puerto Rico and downwind of the USVI. Overall, no
significant rainfall amounts are expected at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all local terminals.
However, trade wind showers will continue to move at times across
the USVI and eastern PR terminals. Afternoon -SHRA developing over
western PR should impact TJMZ. Low level winds will prevail from
the east to northeast between 15-20 kts with higher gusts after
14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Confused seas will maintain hazardous marine conditions during
the next several days. Small craft advisories will therefore
remain in effect for most of the local waters. The trade winds are
forecast to increase at 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts during
the weekend. Life threatening rip currents will also continue
through the weekend across the northern and eastern beaches of
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 74 / 60 40 40 40
STT 85 74 84 73 / 40 40 40 50
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19254 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:27 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
459 PM AST Thu Feb 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will continue
to promote a moderate to locally fresh east to northeast trade
winds through the upcoming weekend. Patches of moisture embedded
in the trades will continue to produce periods of showers at times
across the local islands. Hazardous marine conditions will remain
as the main feature across the region for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...
An upper level ridge over the region will continue to inhibit the
development of deep convection over the region for the next few
days. A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will
continue to induce breezy conditions across the local islands and
surrounding waters. Model guidance indicated that local winds will
increase to at least 25 knots by the upcoming weekend and early
next week. Low level perturbations associated with the east
northeast trades are expected to move from time to time across the
local islands, inducing the development of passing showers across
the region. This activity is expected to affect mostly the U.S.
Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well as the eastern and
northern sections of Puerto Rico during the nights and early in
the mornings. The orographic effects will cause some cloudiness
to develop and move downwind Friday and Saturday afternoons. These
effects in combination with diurnal heating will cause some
showers across the southwestern quadrant of PR each afternoon. The
east northeast trades will also continue to promote pleasant
temperatures across the region for the next several days with
highs around the mid 80s across coastal areas and lows ranging
from the high 50s to low 60s across the higher elevations. Not
significant changes in this weather pattern is expected for the
next several days.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...from previous discussion...
Overall, the weather pattern will remain the same throughout the
long term period. A strong surface high pressure and a ridge
pattern aloft will dominate the local weather. Therefore, expect
breezy trades which are forecast to carry showers across the USVI
and the northern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico especially
during the evening and early morning hours. Then, some showers
could develop during the afternoon hours across the
west/southwestern portions of Puerto Rico and downwind of the
USVI. Overall, no significant rainfall amounts are expected at the
moment.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with VCSH
expected SCT SHRA through the forecast period. Winds from the E to
ENE at around 15KT with higher gusts with sea breeze variations for
TJPS and TJMZ until about 08/23Z. Winds decreasing slightly after
08/23Z, increasing across the USVI after 09/06Z then for the
terminals in PR increasing after 09/13Z to 15-20kt and gusty.

&&

.MARINE...Confused seas will maintain hazardous marine conditions during
the next several days. Small craft advisories will therefore remain
in effect for most of the local waters. The trade winds are
forecast to increase at 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts during
the weekend. Life threatening rip currents will also continue
through the weekend across the northern and eastern beaches of
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 74 84 / 40 40 40 40
STT 74 84 73 84 / 40 40 50 50
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19255 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:53 am

National Weather Service San Juan PR
538 AM AST Fri Feb 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Strong surface high pressure across the central
Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to fresh east to
northeast trades for the next several days. Showers embedded on
the trades will reach at times the local islands. As the winds
increase during the weekend the main hazard will be the marine
conditions as rough seas between 8-12 feet are expected across the
regional waters.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Strong high pressure at the surface continues in the central
Atlantic and will be joined by another high this evening. High
pressure shifts slightly westward to maintain a strong gradient
across the local area and fresh trade winds over the local waters
and windward coasts. At upper levels the ridge of high pressure
remains west over Hispaniola for the next several days and then
shifts farther westward. As it does so the jet over the local area
will weaken here and strengthen over the western tropical Atlantic
where a trough will pinch the air flow. Although moist air will be
fairly deep today, with 60 percent relative humidity as high as 520
mb or 18 kft, mid and upper levels above that are almost completely
dry and moisture will erode from the top during the period.
Nevertheless, early morning showers will be likely across the
windward areas and there is a chance to good chance of showers
across western Puerto Rico each day during the afternoons.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

No major change on the weather conditions. Broad tutt will remain across
the tropical Atlantic while a mid to upper level ridge builds west
of the region. This will promote dry air aloft through the long
term period. However, a strong surface high pressure spread
across the central and northeastern Atlantic will continue to
bring passing showers and breezy trades through at least midweek.
Normal to below normal seasonable temperatures will continue
across all the islands. No significant rainfall amounts are
expected, however, brief periods of showers are expected at times
during the overnight/early morning hours followed by shallow
afternoon shower development over portions of west/southwest PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail with only brief MVFR in
SHRA due to CIGS/VSBYs in ocnl +SHRA. Areas of hir trrn obscured.
SFC winds will be out of the east to northeast at 15 to 20 kts with
gust up to 30 kt possible. Winds ENE-E 15 to 25 kt up to FL180. Max
winds WNW 60 kt at FL410.


&&

.MARINE...Wind driven seas will result in rough marine conditions
across the regional waters through next week. Small craft
advisories will continue in effect through next week Seas will
increase from 8-10 feet today to 10-12 feet during the weekend.
East to northeast winds will continue at 15-20 kts...increasing
20-25 kts during the weekend.

Life threatening rip currents will continue through the weekend
across the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra,
Vieques and St. Croix. The southern coast of St. Thomas and St.
John will also have a high rip current risk on Sunday. Also, high
surf conditions are possible across the north and eastern beaches
of St. Croix and some beaches of northern PR on Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 73 / 70 70 70 60
STT 84 73 83 73 / 60 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19256 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:26 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
457 PM AST Fri Feb 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Strong surface high pressure across the central
Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to fresh east to
northeast trades for the next several days. Showers embedded on
the trades will reach at times the local islands. As the winds
increase during the weekend the main hazard will be the marine
conditions as rough seas between 8-12 feet are expected across the
regional waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...
An upper level ridge to the west of the region is expected to
drift farther westward during the next several days. Strong high
pressure at the surface across the central Atlantic is expected to
merge with another surface high on Saturday. This feature will
maintain a strong pressure gradient across the region inducing
breezy conditions across the local islands and surrounding waters
for the next several days. Model guidance indicated that local
winds will increase to at least 25 knots with higher gusts for the
next several days. Low level perturbations associated with the
east northeast trades are expected to move from time to time
across the local islands, inducing the development of passing
showers across the region. This activity is expected to affect
mostly the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well as the
eastern and northern sections of Puerto Rico during the nights and
early in the mornings. The orographic effects will cause some
cloudiness to develop and move downwind Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
These effects in combination with diurnal heating will cause
showers across the southwestern quadrant of PR each afternoon. The
east northeast trades will also continue to promote pleasant
temperatures across the region for the next several days with
highs around the mid 80s across coastal areas and lows ranging
from the high 50s to low 60s across the higher elevations. Not
significant changes in this weather pattern is expected for the
next several days.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...from previous reasoning...
No major change on the weather conditions. Broad tutt will remain
across the tropical Atlantic while a mid to upper level ridge
builds west of the region. This will promote dry air aloft through
the long term period. However, a strong surface high pressure
spread across the central and northeastern Atlantic will continue
to bring passing showers and breezy trades through at least
midweek. Normal to below normal seasonable temperatures will
continue across all the islands. No significant rainfall amounts
are expected, however, brief periods of showers are expected at
times during the overnight/early morning hours followed by shallow
afternoon shower development over portions of west/southwest PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with VCSH
expected SCT SHRA through the forecast period. Winds from the E to
ENE at around 15KT with higher gusts with sea breeze variations for
TJPS and TJMZ until about 09/23Z. Winds decreasing slightly after
09/23Z, increasing across the USVI after 10/06Z then for the
terminals in PR increasing after 10/13Z to 15-20kt and gusty.

&&

.MARINE...Wind driven seas will continue to result in rough
marine conditions across the regional waters through next week.
Small craft advisories will continue in effect through next week
Seas will increase from 8-10 feet today to 10-12 feet during the
weekend. East to northeast winds will continue at 15-20
kts...increasing 20-25 kts during the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 82 / 70 70 60 80
STT 73 83 73 84 / 30 30 30 40

&&
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19257 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:09 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
537 AM AST Sat Feb 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure under the eastern portion of a broad
upper ridge will drive moderate to strong trade east northeast winds
across the local area for at least the next 5 days. Scattered
shallow showers will briefly wet the area--mainly over the
Atlantic waters and the windward side of Puerto Rico, with
afternoon showers in the west and southwest of Puerto Rico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...
The short term period will be dominated by a mid to upper level
ridge and low level moisture driven by strong easterly trade
winds.

Today, a high pressure system in the far north Atlantic will build
westward into the the Atlantic waters and create windy conditions
over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands with north to northeast
winds of 15 to 20 mph and higher gusts this afternoon. Model
guidance indicates that the increase in wind speeds along with a
weak perturbation within in the flow will create numerous showers
across Culebra, Vieques and the northern portions of Puerto Rico,
today.

Sunday, seems to be the wettest day as a weak trough tries to
move through the area early Sunday this along with low level
moisture will create showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
portions of northeastern Puerto Rico during the morning and
afternoon, while other areas will have a slight chance for
showers.

Monday through Tuesday will see low level moisture move in
periodically with trade winds showers mainly during the morning and
afternoon hours with strong winds east to northeast winds 10 to 20
mph.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday
High pressure stretched across the western and central Atlantic
Wednesday will slowly sag south toward the area and weaken
considerably into the following weekend. This will allow the
gradient to relax somewhat and allow winds to diminish across the
area. The easterly trade winds, however, will still be moderate
to locally fresh across the area and some showers will persist.
Even though the precipitable water will be lower than today or
tomorrow, it will fluctuate more on a daily basis later next week
such that brief shower activity will vary more but still be a
prominent part of the daily pattern. Little change in the pattern
is expected. 1000-850 mb thicknesses will also vary only a
little, but current models suggest that it will be slightly cooler
on Monday and then gradually warm a degree or two the rest of the
week. Upper levels will sport a broad ridge that will be eroded
from the north by an east west trough that will sag toward the
tropical Atlantic during the period and then fade from view.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites
early during the period but SHRA/-SHRA are possible across terminals
TJSJ, TIST, TISX and the Leeward Islands. Aft 10/17Z expect SCT
SHRA and mtn obscurations over PR. SFC winds will be out of the
east to northeast at 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 33 kt possible.
Upper level winds turn to the west northwest at FL180 and increase
thru FL460 with winds ranging from 50 to 80 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Seas become the main weather concern today as winds
drive seas up today and tomorrow. Seas up to 12 feet are
expected--especially in the outer Atlantic waters. Showers will
also contain strong gusts--possibly up to 32 kt. A gradual
improvement is not expected until after Tuesday. A high surf
advisory may be necessary both along the coasts of northern Puerto
Rico and the island of Saint Croix by Sunday. The high risk of rip
currents will spread around the eastern and some southern coasts
during this period and continue through at least mid week along
the northern coasts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 82 73 / 60 60 60 50
STT 83 73 84 72 / 40 60 60 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19258 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:42 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
324 PM AST Sat Feb 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure across the central Atlantic will
continue to drive moderate to strong trade east northeast winds
across the local area for the next several days. Scattered
shallow showers will move from the Atlantic waters across the
windward side of Puerto Rico during the nights and early in the
morning, with afternoon showers in the west and southwest of
Puerto Rico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...
A mid level ridge will hold across the region for the next
several day, limiting the development of deep convection across
the local islands. Strong high pressure at the surface across the
central Atlantic is expected to merge with another surface high
tonight. This feature will maintain a strong pressure gradient
across the region inducing windy conditions across the local
islands and surrounding waters for the next several days. Model
guidance indicated that local winds will continue to at least 25
knots with higher gusts for the next several days. Low level
perturbations associated with the east northeast trades are
expected to move from time to time across the local islands,
inducing the development of passing showers across the region.
This activity is expected to affect mostly the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well as the eastern and northern
sections of Puerto Rico during the nights and early in the
mornings. The orographic effects will cause some cloudiness to
develop and move downwind Saturday and Sunday afternoons. These
effects in combination with diurnal heating will cause showers
across the southwestern quadrant of PR each afternoon. The east
northeast trades will also continue to promote pleasant
temperatures across the region for the next several days with
highs around the mid 80s across coastal areas and lows ranging
from the high 50s to low 60s across the higher elevations. Not
significant changes in this weather pattern is expected for the
next several days.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...from previous discussion...
High pressure stretched across the western and central Atlantic
Wednesday will slowly sag south toward the area and weaken
considerably into the following weekend. This will allow the
gradient to relax somewhat and allow winds to diminish across the
area. The easterly trade winds, however, will still be moderate to
locally fresh across the area and some showers will persist. Even
though the precipitable water will be lower than today or
tomorrow, it will fluctuate more on a daily basis later next week
such that brief shower activity will vary more but still be a
prominent part of the daily pattern. Little change in the pattern
is expected. 1000-850 mb thicknesses will also vary only a little,
but current models suggest that it will be slightly cooler on
Monday and then gradually warm a degree or two the rest of the
week. Upper levels will sport a broad ridge that will be eroded
from the north by an east west trough that will sag toward the
tropical Atlantic during the period and then fade from view.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with VCSH
expected SCT SHRA through the forecast period. Winds from the E to
ENE at around 15KT with higher gusts with sea breeze variations for
TJPS and TJMZ until about 08/23Z. Winds decreasing slightly after
08/23Z, increasing across the USVI after 09/06Z then for the
terminals in PR increasing after 09/13Z to 15-20kt and gusty.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas will continue as the main weather concern for the next
several days. Seas up to 12 feet are expected, especially in the
outer Atlantic waters. Showers will also contain strong gusts,
possibly up to 32 kt. A gradual improvement is not expected until
after Tuesday. The high risk of rip currents will remain in effect
for the northwest to northeast, southeast and southwest beaches of
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 84 / 60 60 50 50
STT 73 84 72 84 / 60 60 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19259 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:36 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
523 AM AST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure in the north central Atlantic will
maintain trade wind flow that will increase today and Monday and
then gradually subside through the week, but brief showers will
continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...
The short term period will be controlled by strong mid to upper
level ridges and periodic low level moisture moving in from the
east.

Today, two high pressure systems will merge in the northwest
central Atlantic to create a strong pressure gradient across the
region with winds gusts as high as 40 mph. This strong gradient
will continue over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through
Monday and, as a result, strong north to northeast winds of 15 to
25 kt with possible gusts of 35 kt will cause hazardous marine
conditions across the Atlantic waters and local passages.
Currently a slot of drier air is over Puerto Rico but it will be
replaced by low level moisture that is currently east of Puerto
Rico so shower activity will increase during the morning and
afternoon hours across portions of northeast, northwest and
southwest Puerto Rico later today.

Monday through Wednesday, a trough will emerge into the Atlantic
waters on Monday but will remain well north of Puerto Rico. A
strong high pressure system in the north Atlantic will cause
strong to fresh east northeast winds over the region. The main
weather players Monday through Wednesday will be the low level
moisture which will periodically move across the region and the
trade wind cap that will limit trade wind showers to the north
Atlantic waters, northern Puerto Rico and the northern portions of
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...
An upper level trough will have already pulled through the area by
Thursday but a second short wave will also move through on Friday.
West to northwest flow will then continue through Tuesday of next
week. While cold air moves into the northwest Atlantic Friday and
Saturday patches of moisture out of the central Atlantic will
continue to pass through the forecast area. The current GFS is
suggesting that by next Sunday we will have less shower activity
as the cold front moves to within 3-4 hundred miles of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites
early during the period but SHRA/-SHRA are possible across terminals
TJSJ, TIST And TISX. SFC winds will be out of the east to northeast
at 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts of 30 kts possible while upper
level winds turning briefly to the north at 24kft then turn to the
west at 33kft with winds ranging from 30 to 70 kts.


&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will continue to increase slightly today
and tomorrow. A few gusts may be as high as 35 kt. A high risk of
rip currents will be common on most beaches. A high surf advisory
has been issued through Tuesday. Winds and seas will begin to
diminish around mid week, but small craft advisories will continue
in most zones through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 84 73 / 60 40 40 30
STT 84 72 84 72 / 50 30 30 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19260 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:51 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
407 PM AST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure across the north central Atlantic will
continue to maintain moderate to strong trade east northeast
winds across the local area for the next several days. Scattered
shallow showers embedded in the trades will affect the U.S. Virgin
Islands and the windward side of Puerto Rico during the nights
and early in the mornings, with afternoon showers in the west and
southwest of Puerto Rico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...
A mid level ridge will hold across the region for the next
few days, limiting the development of deep convection across the
local islands. Strong high pressure at the surface across the
north central Atlantic is expected to merge with another surface
high tonight. This feature will maintain a strong pressure
gradient across the region inducing windy conditions across the
local islands and surrounding waters for the next several days.
Strong east to northeast winds of 15 to 25 kt with possible gusts
up to 35 kt will continue to produce hazardous marine conditions
across most of the local waters and local passages until at least
the middle of the week. Low level perturbations embedded in the
the east northeast trades will periodically move across the
region, inducing the development of passing moderate to heavy
showers across the local islands. This activity is expected to
affect mostly the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well as
the eastern and northern sections of Puerto Rico during the
nights and early in the mornings. The orographic effects in
combination with diurnal heating will cause showers across the
western and southwestern sections of PR each afternoon. The east
northeast trades will also continue to promote pleasant
temperatures across the region for the next several days with
highs around the mid 80s across coastal areas and lows ranging
from the high 50s to low 60s across the higher elevations. Not
significant changes in this weather pattern is expected in the
foreseeable future.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...from previous discussion...
An upper level trough will have already pulled through the area
by Thursday but a second short wave will also move through on
Friday. West to northwest flow will then continue through Tuesday
of next week. While cold air moves into the northwest Atlantic
Friday and Saturday patches of moisture out of the central
Atlantic will continue to pass through the forecast area. The
current GFS is suggesting that by next Sunday we will have less
shower activity as the cold front moves to within 3-4 hundred
miles of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites
during the period but SHRA/-SHRA are possible across terminals
TJSJ, TIST, TISX and TJSJ. SFC winds will be out of the east to
northeast at 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts of 30 kts possible

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will continue to increase slightly until
tomorrow. A few gusts may be as high as 35 kt. A high risk of rip
currents will be common on most beaches. A high surf advisory will
remain in effect through Tuesday. Winds and seas will begin to
diminish around mid week, but small craft advisories will continue
in most zones through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 82 / 40 40 30 30
STT 72 84 72 85 / 30 30 20 20
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