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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19481 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:52 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 51.1W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and
discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Dominica.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius



Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Beryl's small size was always going to make it prone to wild and
unpredictable fluctuations in intensity, and that appears to have
come to fruition this morning. The cyclone's low-level center is
now completely exposed with all associated deep convection displaced
to the east and southeast. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have
decreased accordingly, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt,
with Beryl being downgraded to a tropical storm.

Even though upper-level winds over the system remain light, and
upper-level cloud motions are still from east to west, strengthening
low-level flow is likely leading to an increase in the deep-layer
westerly shear. In fact, analyses from UW-CIMSS indicate that
about 15 kt of westerly shear is now over the system. The shear
and a very dry ambient environment have likely caused the small and
fragile cyclone to suddenly weaken. Since the low-level flow is
expected to increase further, and Beryl will be running into
upper-level westerlies in 36-48 hours, the shear is only expected
to become more hostile. This will make it extremely difficult for
Beryl to become more organized again, and its chances of being a
hurricane before reaching the Lesser Antilles have decreased
significantly. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered
from the previous advisory, and now keeps Beryl as a tropical storm
through the forecast period. The forecast intensities could still
be a little high, and this prediction will remain low confidence
until we get a better handle on Beryl's initial intensity. Even
though a 72-hour forecast is provided, it is entirely possible that
Beryl will open up into a trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea
before that time. Regardless of whether the system has a closed
circulation, it is likely to continue producing strong gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles
next week.

Beryl is now gaining more latitude and has an initial motion of
295/12 kt. The cyclone is still expected to accelerate toward the
west-northwest during the next several days, and the track guidance
remains tightly clustered through the forecast period. The new NHC
track forecast has been shifted slightly northward due to Beryl's
recent northwestward jog, and it lies relatively close to the HCCA
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is no longer forecast to be near hurricane strength when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, but the
chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and
rainfall continues. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in
effect for some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and
additional watches or warnings could be required for other islands
later today.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 12.1N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.6N 52.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.6N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.8N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.9N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 18.3N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19482 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:41 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
200 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL WEAKENS FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 51.9W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19483 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL WEAKENING WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 52.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Guadeloupe.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten




Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Beryl has not changed much in appearance since this morning. The
storm still has a tight low-level circulation with all of the deep
convection displaced to the east and southeast of the center.
Scatterometer data missed the circulation this morning, and we still
do not have a good handle on Beryl's maximum winds. Dvorak CI
numbers are now 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial
intensity will be lowered to 45 kt, which could still be generous.

Beryl seems to be accelerating sooner than initially anticipated,
and the 12-hour motion is now west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. Not
only is the cyclone moving a little faster now, but the track
guidance is also showing a faster future motion than it had been
indicating. The overall guidance envelope has also shifted
slightly northward. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous forecast to be closer to the
multi-model consensus aids, and it has been shifted ever-so-slightly
to the north as well.

With the low-level easterlies around Beryl increasing, and the
cyclone expected to run into upper-level westerlies in about 24
hours, the deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen over the next
couple of days. This increased shear and nearby dry air will likely
cause Beryl to continue weakening, and the updated NHC intensity
forecast now shows the cyclone weakening to a tropical depression by
the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea, if not sooner. Beryl
is then likely to open up into a trough shortly after 48 hours,
which is shown by all the global models. It should be noted that
despite the expected weakening, some of the global models show deep
convection reigniting due to upper-level divergence to the east of
a trough, and even as an open wave the system will still likely
produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward
Islands and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several
days.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl has continued to weaken today, but there is still a chance
of some islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from
wind and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches
remain in effect. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 12.7N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.4N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.6N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.9N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.3N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19484 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:40 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
550 PM AST Sat Jul 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Shower activity expected to gradually increase through
the weekend as moisture increases and the current Tropical Storm
Beryl gets closer. The current forecast has Beryl weakening
further by the time it gets close to the local islands. However,
showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds continue to be forecast
across the local islands, especially for Monday. Seasonable
weather pattern expected after Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday...

Fair weather expected through the rest of the afternoon with a few
showers gradually starting to affect eastern PR. Scattered showers
are then expected across the local waters, USVI and eastern PR
tonight. The available moisture is expected to increase on Sunday
and scattered showers continue to be expected over PR and the USVI
through Sunday with isolated thunderstorms across western PR on
Sunday afternoon. As the current Tropical Storm Beryl continues to
weaken, the associated showers and thunderstorms may get closer
to the local islands starting Sunday night, so shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to increase slightly on Sunday
night.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Sunday...

...From previous discussion with some updates...

Hurricane Beryl is still expected to degenerate, passing south of
the area on Monday as a tropical storm. Refer to TCDAT2 for further
details.

Based on the latest guidance, Beryl is expected to move south of
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands as a tropical depression or
open wave on Monday. Still expect an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity, across the Caribbean waters, Saint Croix,
and Puerto Rico, late Sunday night into Monday. With the showers
and thunderstorms expected to spread across northern areas of
Puerto Rico as well as the Atlantic waters through the day on Monday.
Periods of showers with thunderstorms likely to continue through
early Tuesday morning. At this time, the closest approach is
expected about 35 nautical miles or 40 statute miles south
southwest of Mayaguez Monday afternoon. Squally weather is
possible across the local islands with strong gusty winds and
rainfall accumulations between 1 and 3 inches with higher amounts
across isolated areas. The highest rainfall accumulations on
Monday morning are expected across east and south Puerto Rico as
well as the US Virgin Islands, the rainfall maxima is then
expected to be focused over the northwest quadrant of the island
in the afternoon. Urban flooding and rises along small streams and
rivers as well as mudslides in areas of steep terrain are likely.


As the system moves away from the local islands Tuesday afternoon,
a seasonal weather pattern is expected across the forecast area
with locally induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
western areas of Puerto Rico each day. Elsewhere, isolated shower
activity expected.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to continue across the flying
area. SHRA are forecast to develop in the VCTY of JMZ/JBQ later this
afternoon. Elsewhere, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will
prevail, but a few -SHRA/SHRA are possible at times. Winds will
continue from the E-ESE at 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts
diminishing after 07/23z.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft should exercise caution through the rest of
the afternoon and in the evening. Small craft advisories will go
into effect at 2 AM AST late tonight across the offshore waters
and local passages with seas gradually building up to 10 feet by
Monday. Winds are expected to be up to 20 knots by Sunday,
increasing to 25 knots or so on Monday with higher gusts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 83 / 40 50 70 80
STT 79 89 79 84 / 40 60 70 80
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19485 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:43 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
800 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 53.5W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19486 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 54.3W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten


Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Beryl is currently comprised of a small swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds with isolated patches of deep convection near and east of the
center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little
since the previous advisory, and based on them the initial
intensity is set to a possibly generous 40 kt.

The initial motion is 290/16. A strong low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge north of Beryl should steer the system quickly
west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h, and the track guidance
is in excellent agreement on this. So, the new track forecast is an
update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the
track guidance envelope.

Westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase over Beryl
during the next 48 h, and the cyclone will also be moving into a
drier and more stable air mass. Based on this, the official
intensity forecast calls for continued weakening, with Beryl
forecast to weaken to a depression just after moving through the
Lesser Antilles and then degenerate into a tropical wave just
after 36 h. It should be noted that the official forecast is based
on the premise that enough convection will return to the system to
partly sustain it, and if this does not happen Beryl could weaken
to a wave sooner than currently forecast. However, it should also
be noted that even as an open wave the system will likely produce
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands
and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl continues to weaken, but there is still a chance of some
islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from wind
and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches remain in
effect. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through early next week.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.1N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.0N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.6N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19487 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:02 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 56.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress
of Beryl.



Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

A burst of deep convection developed over the eastern portion of
Beryl's circulation just after the release of the previous
advisory. The convective burst has expanded overnight and
the earlier exposed center of the cyclone is now located near
the northwestern edge of the convective cluster. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged, and the initial
intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to Beryl and should
provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity this morning.

The intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous
advisory. Westerly vertical wind shear is expected to increase over
Beryl during the next 24 to 36 h, and the cyclone will be moving
into a drier mid-level environment. As a result, Beryl is expected
to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. However, the system will likely produce
strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few
days.

The tropical storm is moving quickly west-northwestward or 290/17
kt. Beryl should continue on this general heading with some
increase in forward speed as it is steered by a strong mid-level
ridge to the north. The track guidance remains in fairly good
agreement but there has been some increase in the cross track
spread at 24 and 36 h with the GFS and HWRF along the southern
edge of the guidance and the ECMWF bracketing the northern side of
the envelope. The NHC track is in the middle of the envelope,
close to the various consensus models, and in best agreement with
the HFIP corrected consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions
of the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts
from wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today
or tonight.

2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low
pressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce
strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 13.7N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.7N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 15.9N 62.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19488 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:20 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST Sun Jul 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Squally weather is expected tonight into Monday with
periods of heavy rain and strong gusty winds as what is now Tropical
Storm Beryl approaches the local area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

For today, an area of moisture ahead of Beryl will move over the
forecast area, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across
the forecast area. During the early morning hours, showers are
expected to move inland and affect coastal areas of northern and
eastern Puerto Rico, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. Once
temperatures rise and in combination with the local effect,
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms may develop over the
interior and southwestern portions of Puerto Rico in the
afternoon. Some local urban and small stream flooding is possible
over these areas with the heaviest rains. Daytime high
temperatures will range from upper 80s to lower 90s in lower
elevations, and mid 70s to mid 80s in higher elevations. Easterly
to northeasterly winds between 10 and 20 mph with higher gusts
will prevail across the area.

For tonight and continuing into late Monday night, local weather
conditions are expected to deteriorate as what is now Tropical Storm
Beryl approaches the local area. Squally weather will initially
affect portions of the eastern half of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin
Islands and surrounding waters during the overnight and early
morning hours. Then, showers and thunderstorms intensity and
coverage will increase throughout the day and until late Monday
night as the system continues to move over the local area. Rainfall
totals of up to 4 inches with higher amounts in isolated areas and
winds of up to 25 mph with gusts near 40-50 mph can be expected
as part of this event. Urban flooding and rapid rises along rivers
and small streams, as well as mudslides in areas of steep terrain
can be expected as the main impacts.

Weather conditions are expected to improve early Tuesday morning as
Beryl and associated moisture continues to move west and far from
the local area.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...

A TUTT low is expected to meander north of the area most of the
forecast cycle. At lower levels, a broad high pressure will hold
across the north central Atlantic to yield moderate to fresh
easterly winds through the next week. Although meandering TUTT
will prevail most of the cycle, favorable upper level dynamics as
well as an increase in moisture advection is forecast Friday
onwards.

Therefore, expect a seasonable weather pattern with locally
induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms possible each
day. As the TUTT relocates northwest of the area and low level
moisture increases, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will
increase Friday and into the next week. Under easterly winds,
temperatures are expected to remain near normal. Hazy skies will
return by midweek as Saharan dust particles reach the eastern
Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail across all taf sites.
VCSH expected over TJSJ, TJBQ and TIST until at least until 08/13Z
as a result from passing showers moving inland. Afternoon convection
will result in VCTS/VCSH in the vicinity of TJSJ, TJMZ, TJBQ and
TJPS. Elsewhere, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail.
Moisture ahead of Beryl will bring showers in the vicinity of all
sites, except TJMZ and TJBQ after 08/21Z. -SHRA conditions are
expected TNCM and TKPK after 08/20Z once Beryl approaches these
sites.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will increase on Monday with maximum
seas around 10 feet in the outer waters as what is now Tropical
Storm Beryl approaches the local area. Winds near 25 to 30 kt with
gusts up to 45 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 85 79 / 50 70 80 70
STT 89 79 85 79 / 50 70 70 70
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19489 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:22 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 56.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19490 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:05 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
800 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 56.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19491 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:54 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

...BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 57.9W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress
of Beryl

DAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Beryl
earlier this morning was unable to find a closed low-level center.
However, the wind data from the aircraft indicated that a sharp
through did exist northeastward of the deep convection located in
the northeastern quadrant of the larger circulation. Since that
time, a stronger burst of convection has developed over the sharp
trough, and the assumption is that the convection could have
spun up a new center. For that reason, the system is still being
considered as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. The highest
850-mb flight-level wind measured was 56 kt in the northeast quad,
which equates to about a 45-kt surface wind. However, the advisory
intensity is being maintained at 40 kt in case the recent convective
development doesn't persist. Another reconnaissance mission into
Beryl is scheduled for this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 290/20 kt. Beryl is expected to
maintain this quick west-northwestward motion through dissipation
due to the strong and broad deep-layer ridge that extends
east-to-west across most of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The
latest model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous
advisory track, so no significant changes were required.

For now, Beryl seems to have found a sweet spot where the vertical
wind shear is a little lower and more difluent based on water vapor
imagery. However, this localized favorable upper-level wind flow
pattern is expected to be short-lived and give way to more hostile
shear conditions by 12 hours and beyond when the shear is forecast
to increase to more than 25 kt from the west. The result should be
a rapid degeneration of the cyclone into an open wave by 24 h when
the system will be moving over the eastern Caribbean Sea. However,
the system will likely produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall across the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next couple of days. On days 3-5, there appears to
be an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a
tropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into
the southwestern Atlantic. Vertical wind shear conditions are
forecast by most of the models to be light, with even the
possibility of the development of a weak upper-level anticyclone
across the Bahamas. The combination of the favorable upper-level
wind flow pattern in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures of
28-29 deg C should yield conditions conducive for the reformation of
a tropical cyclone, although Beryl's low-level remnants are likely
to be significantly disrupted by Hispaniola and could take some time
to reform.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions
of the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts
from wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today
or tonight.

2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low
pressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce
strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.4N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.4N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.8N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE
36H 10/0000Z 18.4N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE
48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19492 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:52 pm

Image
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19493 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
800 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

...REMNANTS OF BERYL NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the remnants of Beryl were located near
latitude 15.5 North, longitude 61.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (42 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the remnants of Beryl will move across the Leeward Islands during
the next few hours, and then move near or south of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight weakening is anticipated during the next 24 hours.

However, environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat
conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone in a few days when
the remnants of Beryl are forecast to move across the Bahamas and
the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly to the north and northeast of the center. La Desirade
Island near Guadeloupe recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph
(69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Dominica and
Guadeloupe tonight. Strong gusty winds are also possible elsewhere
across the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Monday.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce storm total rain
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday across the Leeward
and the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Local amounts up
to 5 inches are possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19494 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:56 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 AM AST Mon Jul 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A vigorous tropical wave associated with the remnants
of Beryl will move across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
today...bringing heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds and rough
seas. The effects of this tropical wave will last until late
tonight. Dry and stable air will spread over the Northeast
Caribbean region during the overnight hours and Tuesday. Saharan
dust particles will reduce somewhat the visibilities and limit
the development of showers the rest of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate as the remnants
of Beryl crosses the local region. These remnants are moving
quickly across the Eastern Caribbean around 25 MPH. As a result...
several rounds of showers will affect the local islands through
tonight. The main hazards will be torrential rainfall and strong
gusty winds. Winds will peak at 20-25 MPH with strong gusty
winds of 35-45 mph. Rainfall accumulations could range between
2-4 inches with locally higher amounts in some spots due to the
interaction with orography. Therefore, urban flooding and rapid
rises along rivers and small streams, as well as mudslides in
areas of steep terrain are also likely across portions of the
islands today.

Weather conditions will significantly improve on Tuesday as a dry
and more stable air mass reaches the northeast Caribbean region.
However, hazy skies will reduce visibilities and deteriorate the
air quality over the islands through midweek. Although, an upper
level trough/TUTT will approach from the east, the local area will
remain in the stable side of the TUTT. This will keep the mid-
level dry/stable and a strong trade wind cap the second part of
the week.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...

A more seasonal pattern is expected through much of the long term
period with a TUTT low moving westward towards the northern Leeward
Islands and then meandering north of the forecast area this weekend.
At the surface, 1028 to 1032 mb high pressure will persist over the
north-central Atlantic, maintaining moderate easterly winds through
next week. Rain chances increase Friday and Saturday with a slight
increase in moisture moving across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected each afternoon, but coverage won`t be
widespread, as moisture is kept mainly below 700 mb with some mid-
level dry air spreading across the area. Under easterly winds,
temperatures should be near normal with hazy skies returning by
mid-week as another swath Saharan dust reach the eastern
Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...Deep tropical moisture from the remnants of Beryl
will continue to approach the USVI and Puerto Rico from the
southeast later this morning and through most of the day. Infrared
satellite imagery shows cloud top cooling to -70 to -75C in the
northern Leeward Islands with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms from TKPK to TNCM. Lowered visibilities and ceilings
will improve as the remnants of Beryl continue northwestward
towards Puerto Rico. MVFR ceilings and occasionally MVFR
visibilities are expected during the day across Puerto Rico. Winds
associated with the disturbance will also be strong at times with
localized gusts approaching 35 to 40 knots at times in heavier
convection. Conditions should improve tonight across the forecast
area with diminishing winds and rising ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as the
remnants of Beryl moves across the local waters today. Wave heights
of 8 to 10 feet are expected with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots
with gusts to around 40 knots, maybe even slightly higher at times.
There is a high risk of rip currents and a high surf advisory. Winds
and seas will gradually improve late Tuesday. Please see our marine
products for more details.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour could trigger
flooding of small streams and rivers as well as mud slides in
areas of steep terrain. Residents living along streams, rivers and
creeks are urged to remain vigilant as weather can change quickly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 79 85 80 / 90 50 10 20
STT 83 80 82 80 / 80 30 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19495 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:52 pm

This is what Puerto Rico is dealing with.Flash floodings,some mudslides and gusty winds in the order of 35-40 mph with isolated reports of 45 mph.There have been some power outages in parts of the island but so far where I am is with it.

@NWSSanJuan
CAUTION! Thunderstorms with torrential rainfall & strong gusty winds to continue especially over eastern half of PR.


 https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1016379455462395904


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19496 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:30 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
434 AM AST Tue Jul 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Drier than normal pattern is expected most of the work
week as high concentrations of Saharan Dust will spread over the
Northeast Caribbean. As a result, hazy skies and limited shower
activity is forecast for the local islands over the next several
days. The next tropical wave will cross the local area on Saturday,
increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Active weather was observed near midnight as showers and thunderstorms
developed over the eastern third of Puerto Rico. These
thunderstorms trained over the same areas for a couple of hours.
The most intense rainfall was concentrated over Humacao, Juncos
and Las Piedras where 3-4 inches fell in less than 3 hours. As a
result, flash flooding was reported in those areas just after
midnight. Conditions improved significantly after 2 AM AST as
drier air was filtering from the east. Therefore, the Flash Flood
Watch was cancelled early this morning.

CIMSS Total Precipitable Water Analysis showed the dry than normal
air mass entering the Eastern Caribbean early this morning. This
dry air contains high concentration of Saharan Dust. The dust
will reduce somewhat the visibilities as well as limit the shower
development across the region. In addition, a retrogressing upper
low/TUTT will remain just northeast of the region through Thursday,
favoring a subsidence pattern aloft. The influence of the TUTT to
the northeast and the Saharan dust will maintain the potential
for showers low over the next couple of days. If afternoon showers
develop over Western PR will be brief and the rainfall
accumulations will be light.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday

A TUTT low will move northwestward and broaden as it remains north
of the local islands going into this weekend. At the surface, high
pressure will persist in the northern Atlantic, maintaining moderate
easterly flow across the entire region through the period, and
keeping temperatures near normal. Model time-heights keep moisture
mainly below 750 mb with RH values dropping to around 10% in the mid
levels, most likely aided by the expected Saharan Dust from Africa.
Moisture is then expected to increase this weekend into early next
week with a tropical wave on Saturday and a weak 500 mb inverted
trough on Sunday, which may bring an increase in rain chances.
This will continue through around Tuesday before drier air moves
back into the region in the mid and upper levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered light showers will continue the next few hours
and diminish from east to west across Puerto Rico as the tropical
wave moves off towards the northwest and takes the moisture with
it. Flight conditions should stay VFR through the period, however,
some model guidance is hinting at possible MVFR ceilings late
tonight out east from TNCM to TKPK and the USVI. Saharan dust may
drop visibilities down to 6 or 7 miles at times with high
concentrations expected to bring hazy conditions this afternoon
from east to west.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will gradually subside today. However,
seas of 6-8 feet and winds of 15-20 kt will keep the hazardous
conditions for small boaters throught this evening. Therefore, a
Small Craft Advisories continues for the offshore waters. There is
a high risk of rip currents for the northwest beaches of Puerto
Rico, elsewhere the risk is low to moderate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 80 86 79 / 10 10 20 30
STT 82 81 82 80 / 0 10 20 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19497 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:39 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Hazy skies and limited shower activity are forecast
for today. This fair weather pattern should continue through at
least Friday. Although, a few trade wind showers may reach the
islands at times, but no significant rainfall accumulations are
anticipated over the next few days. Moisture and instability will
increase on Saturday as a tropical wave moves across the Eastern
Caribbean.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Shallow moisture at low and mid levels is leaving minor and
mostly trace amounts of rain across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands in east southeast flow. Areas of dust and mostly
drier air will prevail through Friday, but will not prevent light
showers in the early mornings in eastern Puerto Rico and around
the U. S. Virgin Islands nor the spotty convection of the
afternoons in western Puerto Rico. A TUTT low is about 675 miles
northeast of San Juan. This low will move north northwest and the
associated trough will pull through the area from the east Thursday
morning marking the end of the area being on the convergent side
of the trough where convection is suppressed. Nevertheless the GFS
suggests that favorable divergence will not occur until Saturday.
On Thursday the GFS shows a weak trough moving through the area
which will bring moisture in from the northeast-- mainly north of
the Caribbean Sea. Although a few more showers may be seen it will
be barely noticed at the surface, where high pressure continues
in the north central Atlantic from 35 to 40 north and drives
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds. The dry mid levels will
be mostly to blame for that for the limited shower activity and
will also be a factor in the almost complete suppression of
thunderstorms.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

A TUTT low over the region will broaden and lift northward at the
beginning of the weekend with weak upper level high pressure moving
in over the local islands. At the surface, high pressure will
persist in the northern Atlantic, maintaining moderate easterly flow
across the entire region through the period, also keeping temperatures
near normal. Model time-heights show a couple waves of moisture
moving across the forecast area Saturday through early next week.
This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms,
especially across western Puerto Rico with enhancement from the
sea breeze. The mid levels will remain very dry and subsident, so
we are not expecting widespread heavy rain, as moisture will be
mainly confined to below 700 mb.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds to prevail for most of the FA except the
USVI where low clouds are now moving over the aerodromes.
Periodic MVFR conds will be psbl thru arnd sunrise when clds
mix out. Sfc high in the northern Atlantic will maintain mdt
easterly winds drg the day with Saharan Dust contg to move
westward across the region. VSBYs may be reduced to 6 or 7 miles
at times, but should improve tonight.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoys showed that the seas are gradually subsiding
across the local regional waters. As a result, the risk of rip
currents has diminished from high to moderate. For the next few
days, seas are forecast to subside from 4-6 feet today to 3-5 feet
the second part of the week. Seas could increase again during the
weekend as a tropical wave moves across the local waters. However,
Small Craft Advisories are not anticipated the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 79 / 20 30 30 20
STT 89 79 90 79 / 10 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19498 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:27 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Three tropical waves will move through the forecast
area, one on Saturday, one on Monday and one on Thursday of next
week. Moisture will fall off after each one, but the last one is
expected to be the strongest and for now should contain
significant rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
A patch of moisture will bring showers across the northern and
eastern sections of Puerto Rico as well as across the U.S. Virgin
Islands. While the western and southern sections of Puerto Rico will
have sunny skies with no shower activity today. Although Saharan
dust concentrations are expected to diminish, hazy skies will
continue across the local area. A retrogressive TUTT will enhance
afternoon convection across the western sections.

Although, dry air will continue across the region, patches of
moisture combined with local effects and the retrogressive TUTT
will enhance afternoon showers across the western sections of
Puerto Rico on Friday.

A tropical wave is forecast to move across the region on
Saturday, which could aid in the development of more frequent
showers and thunderstorm activity by the beginning of the upcoming
weekend.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
The tropical wave now moving through 30 west will arrive in
Puerto Rico on Sunday night, followed by increasing moisture
through Monday that will bring some rain and some thunderstorms to
the area. The heaviest rain is expected after the passage of the
wave on Monday afternoon, although some scattered showers will
precede the wave late on Sunday afternoon. After typical morning
showers on the east coast of Puerto Rico, Tuesday should be a day
of clearing and drying and temperatures along the north coast
will again rise into the lower 90s. The U.S. Virgin Islands--
already feeling the effects of the drying--will have few if any
showers. This dryer pattern will continue into Wednesday for both
PR and the USVI. Late Wednesday the third tropical wave will move
into the the southeast corner of the forecast area and showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms will be experienced in Saint
Croix. The best rains of the week will then fall in Puerto Rico on
Thursday with thunderstorms likely to be active.

The upper level pattern which appears quite organized now with the
TUTT to our northeast will become disorganized by Sunday and will
give little aid to the tropical wave on Sunday. On Tuesday low
pressure will begin to form to the southwest of Puerto Rico and
presently, the GFS shows some divergence aloft to coincide with
the wave passage on Thursday. Although drying is expected
immediately after Thursday some thunderstorms may develop in
western Puerto Rico again on Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail for most of the forecast
area. Although Saharan dust concentration will diminish today,
hazy skies will continue across the local flying area. During the
afternoon hours, showers are forecast to develop across the
western portions of PR to which could produce MVFR conditions
across TJMZ. Winds will continue from the east at less than 10
knots, increasing at 10 to 15 with higher gusts aft 12/13z. Sea
breeze variations are also expected across the coastal sections
throughout the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...Winds continue at least moderately from the east and
this will not allow seas to relax much below 4 feet except in the
protected areas. Seas will respond to passing surges in winds to
reach 6 feet in the outer waters on Saturday and Sunday. At this
time small craft advisories are not expected but cannot be ruled
out entirely with the passages of the next several waves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 80 / 40 30 10 30
STT 90 79 88 79 / 40 30 10 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19499 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:34 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 AM AST Fri Jul 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture from three tropical waves will move through
the forecast area, on Saturday, on Sunday night and Monday night
from a split wave, and on Thursday of next week. Moisture will
fall off after each one, but the last one is expected to be the
strongest and for now should contain significant rainfall.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Showers were detected across the local waters overnight and some
of them moved across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the northern and
eastern sections of Puerto Rico. This activity will gradually
diminish throughout the morning hours, as another dry air mass
with Saharan air particulates makes its way across the islands.

Although Saharan dust will limit shower activity today, a
retrogressive TUTT will provide enough instability to enhance
afternoon convection. This upper level feature will interact with
the available moisture, diurnal heating and local effects to aid in
the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
northwest quadrant of PR during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere,
under a east-southeasterly wind flow above normal heat indexes are
expected along portions of the coastal areas of Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is forecast to move across the region on Saturday,
which could aid in the development of more frequent showers and
thunderstorm activity by the beginning of the upcoming weekend. On
Sunday, a dry air mass with Saharan dust particulate will make its
way one more time over the region. But, another tropical wave is
forecast to bring additional showers and thunderstorms late Sunday
night into Monday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
The wave expected on Monday appears to have split, with a trough
preceding the main moisture on Sunday night followed by better
moisture Monday night. High pressure at 250 mb will be passing to
the south of the area so dynamics will be weak on Sunday, but as
flow shifts to northwest the GFS is indicating better divergence
aloft for Monday`s activity. Although rainfall should be more
significant Monday than Saturday since this wave is of modest
strength, some areas may still receive urban and/or small stream
flooding Monday and Monday night. Saharan dust is also expected to
continue from Sunday through much of the rest of next week and
this will limit convection somewhat. Tuesday and Wednesday will be
mostly dry again although some afternoon convection cannot be
ruled out in western Puerto Rico. Then, another more vigorous
tropical wave will pass through with better moisture and upper
level dynamics. Some moisture will linger at lower levels on
Friday, but mid levels will return to their mostly dry state.

1000-850 mb thicknesses vary little during the period, so
temperatures will remain similar each day except for a little
cooling during the days when heavy rains fall.

&&

.AVIATION...Passing SHRA will move at times across TJSJ/TIST/TISX at
times, but without significant impacts. SHRA/iso TSRA are
expected to develop across the western portions of PR btwn
13/16-23z. Under an east to southeasterly wind flow convection is
expected across the northwest quadrant of PR, which could affect
TJBQ. Winds will continue from the east at less than 10 knots,
bcmg from the ESE at 10 to 15 with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations aft 13/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine models indicate that seas will continue below 7
feet although the forecast wave passages could generate seas of 7
feet Tuesday and Thursday of next week. Since winds at times will
also reach 20 knots close to shore mariners are urged to exercise
caution in these areas. There will be a better chance of
thunderstorms on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 79 / 10 10 30 50
STT 88 79 89 80 / 10 10 30 40
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19500 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:00 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Sat Jul 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The passage of three tropical waves and the presence
of Saharan dust will be the prevailing features for the next 7
days. The first wave will pass today, the second on Monday and the
third on Thursday. Each successive wave will have a little more
moisture that the previous one. High pressure in the northeast
Atlantic will drive the easterly trade winds throughout the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...
Tranquil weather conditions prevailed overnight. A few light passing
showers were detected mainly across the local waters, the U.S.
Virgin Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico.

A weak tropical wave is expected to reach the islands today, pooling
additional moisture over the region. As a result, showers will
affect the eastern half of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands at times during the morning hours. Then, the tropical
moisture combined with low level convergence, diurnal heating and
orographic effects will result in afternoon convection across the
interior and western portions of Puerto Rico and downwind from El
Yunque into the San Juan Metro Area. Additional shower activity in
the form of streamers is also possible downwind from the USVI.
Model guidance as well as Satellite imagery suggest Saharan dust
particulates moving across the region.

By Sunday, dry air with Saharan dust particulates will result in
hazy skies with limited shower activity across the islands. However,
passing showers will be possible as the trade winds advect patches
of low-level moisture into the region.

By late Sunday night into early Monday, another tropical wave is
forecast to makes its way across the region. Therefore, an
increase in convective activity will be expected across the USVI
and eastern portions of PR, followed by shower and thunderstorm
activity in the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Moisture from the tropical wave that will pass through on Monday
will be found leaving the area on Tuesday morning, but not without
at least some shower activity in the eastern portion of Puerto
Rico especially during the early morning hours before the low
level moisture diminishes. Moisture then drops to an inter-wave
low late Wednesday afternoon and the Saharan dust will become
noticeably thicker.

Although the GFS has shifted its evaluation of the wave with the
best moisture from Thursday to Tuesday and back again. We continue
to note that the widest area of moisture and therefore the period
of longest duration of higher columnar water values is still to
take place on Thursday. Some help from an upper level low pressure
forming in the area will enhance the upper level divergence and
also the chance of thunderstorms then as well. The GFS time height
section, however suggests that low level moisture at 700 mb will
be less than 70 percent, which suggests that this wave is
weakening somewhat as well. Drier air returns on Friday with the
lowest value of the week for precipitable water occurring on
Saturday evening. Few showers will be seen then, mainly along the
east southeast side of the Luquillo range in the overnight and
early morning hours and also in northwest and west portion of
Puerto Rico. The U.S. Virgin Islands will see little or no shower
activity between either of the waves next week.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue through at least 14/12z.
Then, mountain obscuration with SHRA/TSRA producing brief periods
of MVFR conditions are possible across TJMZ/TJBQ btwn 14/16-23Z.
Mtn obscurations will also be seen over most of the islands after
14/18Z. Sfc winds will continue from the east at less than 10
knots increasing at 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations after 14/13z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas are somewhat rough owing to the prevalence of the
easterly trade winds at 15 to 20 knots over much of the area
through beyond Wednesday over exposed waters. This will bring seas
to 4 to 6 feet in many areas and may flirt with 7 feet on Monday
in a few parts of the local outer waters. In the meantime mariners
will need to exercise caution over most of our local waters for
winds and seas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 77 / 40 50 30 60
STT 90 80 90 79 / 30 40 40 50
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