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Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 9:07 am
by cycloneye
rainydaze wrote:Where is this wave headed after it passes you by Luis?




After it moves thru the Eastern Caribbean,it will move to the Western Caribbean area where it has to be watched as climo in June favors that area.

Image

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 9:20 am
by msbee
Hmm!
Has it passed us already? skies are sunny!
wind is still high though!

Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 KT) gusting to 30 MPH (26 KT) (direction variable)

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 9:22 am
by cycloneye
msbee wrote:Hmm!
Has it passed us already? skies are sunny!
wind is still high though!

Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 KT) gusting to 30 MPH (26 KT) (direction variable)


Is possible that the wave axis has passed that island (62w) as the wave is moving at 20kts.Those winds behind wave is the wind surge.

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 9:44 am
by msbee
well, I spoke too soon. right now we have thunder, heavy rain, and high wind.

Luis, I never heard of wind surge.
can you explain that please??

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 9:49 am
by cycloneye
msbee wrote:well, I spoke too soon. right now we have thunder, heavy rain, and high wind.

Luis, I never heard of wind surge.
can you explain that please??


Oh Barbara,maybe someone who knows more technnical issues about this than me can help us explain in detail about how that wind surge starts and how much it lasts.

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 10:43 am
by bvigal
Juliana Airport, Saint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles
(TNCM) 18-03N 063-07W 9M

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Conditions at Jun 13, 2006 - 11:00 AM EDTJun 13, 2006 - 10:00 AM CDTJun 13, 2006 - 09:00 AM MDTJun 13, 2006 - 08:00 AM PDTJun 13, 2006 - 07:00 AM ADTJun 13, 2006 - 06:00 AM HDT
2006.06.13 1500 UTC
Wind from the SE (130 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 KT) gusting to 39 MPH (34 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds, towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.12 in. Hg (1020 hPa)

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 10:47 am
by bvigal
Charlotte Amalie St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport, Virgin Islands
(TIST) 18-20N 064-59W

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Conditions at Jun 13, 2006 - 10:53 AM EDTJun 13, 2006 - 09:53 AM CDTJun 13, 2006 - 08:53 AM MDTJun 13, 2006 - 07:53 AM PDTJun 13, 2006 - 06:53 AM ADTJun 13, 2006 - 05:53 AM HDT
2006.06.13 1453 UTC
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 KT) gusting to 38 MPH (33 KT)
Visibility 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Precipitation last hour A trace
Temperature 80.1 F (26.7 C)
Dew Point 72.0 F (22.2 C)
Relative Humidity 76%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.06 in. Hg (1017 hPa)
Pressure tendency 0.03 inches (0.9 hPa) higher than three hours ago

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 10:50 am
by cycloneye
1100 AM AST TUE JUN 13 2006

PRZ001-004-131600-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM MOSUNNY 86 75 70 E20G26 30.04F HX 95
CEIBA MOSUNNY 84 72 65 SE14 30.06S
$$

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:12 am
by cycloneye
I just measured in my anemometer a gust of 31 mph.Skies are partly cloudy but building clouds to my SE suggest things will go downhill from here.I will keep posting observations unless something happens and power is out. :)

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:14 am
by Vortex
I'm just amazed. The 12Z GFS is rolling out...Through H-66 it indicated 2 closed lows. Another busy season underway. I think the NE carribean and Puerto Rico stand a good chance at being affected by multiple tropical systems this year.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:18 am
by Audrey2Katrina
Looks like this wave has more than just a little kick to it. I sure hope it doesn't do much in the Caribbean other than just move into S. America (which I realize is probably unlikely)... Looks like the areas around the VI getting some squally weather this time. Can't see the full size of it; but perhaps the axis has already passed St. Maarten.

A2K

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:20 am
by Audrey2Katrina
I'm just amazed. The 12Z GFS is rolling out...Through H-66 it indicated 2 closed lows. Another busy season underway. I think the NE carribean and Puerto Rico stand a good chance at being affected by multiple tropical systems this year.


That low about 1200 or so mi. to the ESE looks like it could well become a "watcher".

A2K

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:58 am
by msbee
what did I say about this thing having passed us?
hah! was I wrong!
It has been raining steadily for 2 hours now. and the wind is fierce.
thunder to the South. it's so dark out I have all my lights on in the house.
latest observations from the airport:
Latest Noon (16) Jun 13 73 (23) 69 (21) 30.09 (1019) ESE 14 light rain
11 AM (15) Jun 13 75 (24) 71 (22) 30.12 (1020) SE 20 heavy rain showers

It is now 1 PM and raining heavily again!

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:01 pm
by bvigal
Just got a big burst of wind here, and now it's whistling. Rain starting again, too.

That 1008mb low on the new GFS looks too far north, and from that model, when meeting the remnant front from Alberto, would turn N/NE.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

Looks to me like the wind surge has passed through the Windwards and Leewards, unless there is more on the "backside". Here's St. Thomas airport not far from me:

Current Weather Conditions:
Charlotte Amalie St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport, Virgin Islands
(TIST) 18-20N 064-59W

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Conditions at Jun 13, 2006 - 11:53 AM
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 KT) gusting to 30 MPH (26 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions clear
Precipitation last hour 0.01 inches
Temperature 84.9 F (29.4 C)
Dew Point 72.0 F (22.2 C)
Relative Humidity 65%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.05 in. Hg (1017 hPa)

While 12:06 Beef Island here in BVI reports:
Wind from the SE (130 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Haze
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 93.4 F (34.1 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 66%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.07 in. Hg (1018 hPa)

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:05 pm
by bvigal
Barbara, I think we posted at about the same time. Wonder why the airport there only measuring 12kt?

Maybe because the winds up and down so fast. That's what it's doing here: almost calm, then a little breeze, then calm again, then a blast real hard (porch furniture goes on the march until meeting banister), then some whistling for a minute or so, then almost calm again, etc. LOL! :D

Someone at NWS in wee hrs mentioned tall cloud tops That's no lie! SJU radar is displaying precip all the way over at St. Kitts!!!

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:18 pm
by Swimdude
It's very interesting that the NHC hasn't mentioned this wave yet... [They did about 4-5 days ago, but not recently... Hmmm...]

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:33 pm
by cycloneye
bvigal and msbee,I will get that weather later on as I can see those very tall cloud tops at the distance to my east.

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:38 pm
by msbee
Gloria
I wondered that too. but the airport here hasn't updated since Noon.
things calmed down a little bit at that time.
but about 45 minutes ago, it picked up again.
it is coming in waves.
Right now we are getting blasted here.
heavy rain, very high winds.
I wanted to go test the wind with my anemometer but I couldn't open the door the wind was so strong.
the palm trees are bent over double.
reports on the radio of road flooding throughout the island.
this wave does indeed have quite a kick!,

And,yes, Luis, it is coming your way!


Barbara

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:40 pm
by msbee
airport just updated .
conditons at 1 PM
Current Weather Conditions:
Juliana Airport, Saint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles
(TNCM) 18-03N 063-07W 9M
Conditions at

2006.06.13 1700 UTC
Wind from the SSE (150 degrees) at 22 MPH (19 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Rain showers
Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 73 F (23 C)
Dew Point 69 F (21 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.12 in. Hg (1020 hPa)
ob TNCM 131700Z 15019KT 3000SE SHRA FEW010 BKN013TCU OVC090 23/21 Q1020 RERA EMBD TCU

1:45 PM here. things have calmed down again.

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:41 pm
by Extremeweatherguy
wow, this is a pretty powerful wave. I am very surprised by the many TS force gusts I am seeing with it. This makes me even more worried about what to expect as it moves into a more favorable environment.