ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Yeah when we say declare we mean upgrade to a warning per Cpc stating nino conditions are present and expected to continue or intensify. An official Nino won't be in the books until after it occurs with the 5 trimonthlies.

[cycloneye]

The large new warm pool at subsurface continues to grow.

[cycloneye]

The data from the Aussies (BoM) has Nino 3.4 at +1.08.

[cycloneye]

Pretty impressive warmup in almost all the equatorial Pacific except for the Nino 1+2 area close to South America.

[Ntxw]

Something to ponder in the ENSO world, it can be seen WWB is occurring over the Indian Ocean in unison with the strong MJO wave there. May see some slowdown in the warming for a week or two as a result. Then the MJO will cross over the Pacific. Will it ignite a WWB? Models do show a WWB progressing towards the dateline.

[cycloneye]

Kelvin Wave moving thru the Western Pacific.

[cycloneye]

Something to ponder in the ENSO world, it can be seen WWB is occurring over the Indian Ocean in unison with the strong MJO wave there. May see some slowdown in the warming for a week or two as a result. Then the MJO will cross over the Pacific. Will it ignite a WWB? Models do show a WWB progressing towards the dateline.

You talked about the slowdown of the warming and here it is.All the areas are cooling right now.

Nino 1+2:



Nino 3:



Nino 3.4:



Nino 4:



The 7 day change graphic shows the cooling.

[Nairobi]

Plus the SSTs north of Australia and around Papua New Guinea are warming. Not a good sign for those wanting a moderate to strong El Nino.

[dexterlabio]

Was never buying a moderate to strong Nino, but I think this cooling in Nino areas are all because of the strong MJO over the unfavourable region (Indian Ocean-Maritime COntinent). Watch the MJO pulse propagate from WPAC to EPAC and see what happens.

[cycloneye]

This developing area in WPAC for sure will create a WWB that will help warm things.The models make it a formidable Typhoon.

[cycloneye]

This will be a very important week to see how things are in the ENSO front as there are going to be three updates including the CPC monthly one on December 4 that can upgrade the El Nino watch to a Warning and make the official El Nino declaration. Before that monthly update comes the CPC weekly update on Monday and the Aussies (BoM) update on Tuesday so stay tuned to this thread this week.

Ntxw,what are your expectations for this week?

Note=This thread will move to the Winter Forum on December 1rst.

[Ntxw]

This will be a very important week to see how things are in the ENSO front as there are going to be three updates including the CPC monthly one on December 4 that can upgrade the El Nino watch to a Warning and make the official El Nino declaration. Before that monthly update comes the CPC weekly update on Monday and the Aussies (BoM) update on Tuesday so stay tuned to this thread this week.

Ntxw,what are your expectations for this week?

Note=This thread will move to the Winter Forum on December 1rst.

I expect things to be pretty much the same, Maybe slight cooling but won't be much maybe 0.7C at the lowest. What is interesting is the big MJO signal. Nov/December 2013 saw a similar strong signal that really kicked off WWB's later by Feb that started the Nino talk. I noticed some guidance project additional Oceanic Kelvin waves in the coming months. While it is too early to call for multiyear Nino, if this does occur it would definitely increase the chances. If we were to have a La Nina there would be a deep cold pool starting to develop out west way under, Nina's tend to begin early. Doesn't look like the case so it seems the odds for a La Nina in 2015 are quite low.

[Ntxw]

This week's update will be 1C. Should be official soon.

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 up to +1.0C.Next is the BoM update on Tuesday followed by the anticipated monthly CPC update on Thursday when they may call El Nino official by El Nino Warning or leave El Nino Watch so stay tuned.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Found this good graphic of temperatures searching the net and it shows how things behave in the different phases of El Nino being Weak,Moderate,Strong and Warm Neutral.

[cycloneye]

BoM update of 2/12/14.

El Niño-like impacts emerge in a number of areas

Issued on 2 December 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

Many climate indicators remain close to El Niño thresholds, with climate model outlooks suggesting further intensification of conditions remains likely. The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance that El Niño will be declared in the coming months. Whether or not an El Niño fully develops, a number of El Niño-like impacts have already emerged.

Several ENSO indicators are currently close to, or exceed, El Niño thresholds. These include tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, which have now exceeded El Niño levels for a month, and the Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained at or near El Niño levels for three months. Other indicators, such as tropical cloud, trade winds and rainfall patterns, have either remained near average or only temporarily approached thresholds. This indicates a typical El Niño ocean–atmosphere interaction may not be fully locked in.

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, so it also remains possible that the ocean and atmosphere will fully couple in the coming weeks to months. If an El Niño is established, models suggest it will be weak, or moderate at most. Regardless of whether an El Niño is declared, El Niño-like effects are likely, as shown by the Bureau’s December–February Climate Outlook, which shows a drier and warmer summer is likely for many parts of Australia. Some El Niño-like impacts have already been seen this spring in Australia and several regions around the globe, including Asia, South America and southern Africa.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

[cycloneye]

MEI is climbing to El Nino levels.

[Ntxw]

Call it what you may but this is a map of El Nino. It's not like the ones we have been seeing though for the past decade or so, those have mostly been accompanied by a weaker +PDO look with cold waters in the GOA and the west coast. You have to go back to (I like to use the ECMWF Ocean Reanalysis) the 70s and 80s to find the true horshoe warmth in the eastern NPAC to go along with the ENSO event in the tropical Pacific

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,based on what the recent data shows and the conditions getting into El Nino mode in the atmosphere,you see them pulling the trigger on Thursday? For those who wonder why on Thursday below is the answer.

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 December 2014.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,based on what the recent data shows and the conditions getting into El Nino mode in the atmosphere,you see them pulling the trigger on Thursday? For those who wonder why on Thursday below is the answer.

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 December 2014.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html

I'm just as curious if they will put a warning on it. It will be 8th reading in a row (2 months worth) of 0.5C or greater come next update and average of the weeklies wll be there as well from all the way back to August. Even if it weakens from this point on it will take a few months to get it below 0.5C given the gradual nature of the CPC and long term ocean SST changes. Most probabilities keep things where they are. If the ONI index gets it's first 0.5C for SON with the next update I think there's a good chance they will.

If there is evidence it has, then it should be done. It's better for people and forecasters to be warned/prepared for it where effected rather than be off-guard and consequently calling it after it happens doesn't do much good.