Florida Weather

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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: Florida Weather

#12421 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:48 pm

There are some teleconnections signaling a cool down end of month. If the models hold and that's a big if. Could get cool/cold.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml
:roll:
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Re: Florida Weather

#12422 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:25 pm

Patrick99 wrote:Maybe for you guys. If I had to bet, I'd say that South Florida "winter" is now over. The extended forecast looks to take us out of our most preferred window for major cold snaps. We might get the odd chilly morning in February and March, but I'll go ahead and bet against anything more prolonged. I think the very subtle shift from winter to spring down here is under way.


Not sure about that. I agree with psyclone's comment that it is hard to bet against persistence. I do think all of Florida is in for some more significant cool/cold fronts before spring really kicks into high gear.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12423 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:45 pm

Patrick99 wrote:Maybe for you guys. If I had to bet, I'd say that South Florida "winter" is now over. The extended forecast looks to take us out of our most preferred window for major cold snaps. We might get the odd chilly morning in February and March, but I'll go ahead and bet against anything more prolonged. I think the very subtle shift from winter to spring down here is under way.

February can be just as cold as January. By no means is winter over until at least March 1st. March is usually the month when you may see the odd chilly morning. Heck, if the NAO were to suddenly tank we could always have a repeat of March 2013.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12424 Postby NDG » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:30 pm

:uarrow: I agree, long range teleconnections look scary for early February, with the PNA pointing back up to positive and the AO tanking, with a possible NAO going negative which remains to be seen this winter so far.

Amazing that with just one night in the upper 20s last week there has been so much damage to tropical vegetation in Orlando, my mango tree has been showing it during past few days after I thought it had not been hit that much.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12425 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:14 pm

Having a feeling thAt the first week of February could be quite cold for the Florida peninsula based on the models if not possibly the coldest shot of the year if the NAO goes negative
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Re: Florida Weather

#12426 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:28 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Having a feeling thAt the first week of February could be quite cold for the Florida peninsula based on the models if not possibly the coldest shot of the year if the NAO goes negative


Certainly looks that way. Both the Euro and GFS 10 day charts show a massive trough diving into the Central US with plenty of arctic air heading east in the long-range. CMC has it too but a bit more west. Plenty of time to watch to see how the models evolve.

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Re: Florida Weather

#12427 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:42 pm

Yeah, I have been busy of late, but I wanted to quickly chime in to agree with what you all are pointing out that Old Man Winter is definitely not done yet.

In fact, within the next 10 -14 days, the pattern looks to reload with arctic air entrenched over North America and with the possibility of the NAO tanking in February, along with +PNA, that spells big concerns potentially for arctic outbreak surging south across the Central and Eastern CONUS.

So, I would definitely consider it quite premature with regards to those on here saying the peninsula is going to escape Old Man Winter in February.

I would not bet on that to happen....
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Re: Florida Weather

#12428 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:39 pm

Someone can post the photo as I do not know how lol but gfs at hour 252 shows snow for central and South Florida. Yea what won't happen lol
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Re: Florida Weather

#12429 Postby boca » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:04 pm

I thought you were joking but it does show snow at 252 hour.Wow I never saw that.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12430 Postby NDG » Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:50 am

Ensembles are no longer showing the NAO to go negative early next month, and split if the PNA will go back positive or not..

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Re: Florida Weather

#12431 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:10 pm

Yep ensembles bout good for 5 days out. They flip flop alot. At least the AO still going neg. for now. Should get some cool weather next week as the low passes Florida. :roll:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml
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Re: Florida Weather

#12432 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:53 am

boca wrote:I thought you were joking but it does show snow at 252 hour.Wow I never saw that.


Okay LOL, here i'm thinking that you both are on crack! Sure enough, there it is on the 18Z run from 1/23/18! So weird to actually see a solid area of blue over Florida; Even crazier that its over South/Central Fla! Ah, dare to dream :lol:
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Re: Florida Weather

#12433 Postby psyclone » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:40 pm

Still no frigid blast in sight as the extended outlooks depict near to slightly above normal temps. I'll drink to that. Looking at climo it seems that mid Feb is when the odds for freezing temps begin to rapidly decrease (at least here in central florida) and are near zero by mid March..so if Winter is going to make a last stand it needs to start showing the cards soon.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12434 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:33 pm

Look at the models for next week. 40's and 50's coming back for lows for a couple days:

Long range (tuesday through friday):
cooler, drier air will begin to spill in on Monday night, but may
not fully be here until Tuesday morning. Low temperatures in the
upper 40s are possible across northwest interior on Monday night,
but colder lows (more like the low-mid 40s) are likely Tuesday
night. Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning 40s may invade most
of interior South Florida. East Coast metropolitan areas are
forecast to remain in the 50s, upper 50s to near 60 along the
immediate coast. Return flow/moderating temperatures/some moisture
increase is possible by the end of next week.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12435 Postby NDG » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:17 am

Ensembles are now showing the PNA to go back to positive & EPO to go negative so I am sure we will get yet another Arctic blast some time in the 10-20 day range.
The damage has been already been done to tropical plants along the I-4 corridor, during the week my mango tree has shown more damage, the worst since 2010, thankfully it was only one night with the hard freeze and not like the several nights we had in 2010.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12436 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:37 am

Yeah NDG I agree. I think the timeframe will be from February 10-15 of when we will see another major arctic outbreak over the Eastern CONUS.

Also, I would not be surprised again to see yet another Deep South winter precip event to take place during February as the subtropical jet looks to get active again long term and we could get another phasing of the Polar Jet and STJ. over the Deep South. Just something to potentially watch down the road.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12437 Postby psyclone » Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:48 pm

We've got what I would call moderate freeze damage around here. some hibiscus and bougainvillea were skunked pretty bad and proximity to buildings or sheltered locations under trees offered little help in advective events. Super low dewpoint/frost free advective freezes are the worst...far more damage than had we had a radiation frosty night with similar temps. interestingly enough we have some young foxtails here in the open that made it almost unscathed...so there is a randomness. Nevertheless after many years of no freeze damage it's noteworthy and unfortunate and illustrates what a remarkable run of good luck we had.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12438 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:52 am

As of this morning all but one single ensemble have the NAO remaining at least neutral or positive for the next 2 weeks. Seems believable in my opinion as the NAO has been positive since the meteorological start of winter on December 1st. The +PNA and -AO may be enough though to at least bring in a couple quick/short lived spurts of cooler weather for the peninsula over the course of the next 2 weeks as what the last few runs of the GFS and Euro have been showing.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12439 Postby NDG » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:As of this morning all but one single ensemble have the NAO remaining at least neutral or positive for the next 2 weeks. Seems believable in my opinion as the NAO has been positive since the meteorological start of winter on December 1st. The +PNA and -AO may be enough though to at least bring in a couple quick/short lived spurts of cooler weather for the peninsula over the course of the next 2 weeks as what the last few runs of the GFS and Euro have been showing.


Yeah the +PNA and -AO has been enough for the Arctic air to make it down to central and southern FL a couple of times but we have really lucked out that the NAO has been positive when we considered that the rest of the Deep South have seen some of the coldest temps since 1996. If the NAO would had been negative all along we would had been as cold if not colder than December 2010.
For example Miami will end up the month near average while December '10 was a whopping 9 degrees below average.
Orlando will end up the month around 2.5 degrees below average while in December '10 it was 10+ degrees below average with 7 mornings at or below freezing.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12440 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:47 pm

Feels nice out in Miami today. Not hot, not cold. It feels like a spring cold front just passed.
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