Florida Weather

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MetroMike
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Re: Florida Weather

#12881 Postby MetroMike » Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:59 pm

You know there is something wrong about this summer when the Climate Prediction Center is calling for below normal precip. across most of Florida
for the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Very rare for the meat of the rainy season.
Last edited by MetroMike on Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12882 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:00 am

MetroMike wrote:You know thee is something wrong about this summer when the Climate Prediction Center is calling for below normal precip. across most of Florida
for the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Very rare for the meat of the rainy season.


Might have to do with SAL bringing in drier mid level air keeping more of a cap than normal over Florida, it’s the only thing I can think of
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Re: Florida Weather

#12883 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:17 pm

Well, the SAL did not stop convection yesterday in South Florida, it just delayed it. In fact, it probably helped out the borderline-severe storm I saw. May be similar today.....looking at the sky, I see some clouds starting to try to tower. They are going to break the cap in a couple hours.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12884 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:58 am

We are really in the easterly flow/SAL dog days this week.....very low rain chances through Friday. This is the kind of Miami summer weather I absolutely hate the most, high sun all day with nothing to provide any relief.

How is it that the SAL doesn't modify itself out more than it does, given that it has to travel thousands of miles over open water to get here? How does it stay intact for such a long trip over ocean?
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Re: Florida Weather

#12885 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:00 pm

I really don't know the full answer to that patrick. Maybe a promet can tell you why. I'm sure it's got something to do with the easterly winds during summer. I can't find a good SAL satellite. Everyone I know is either down or sucks. Like this one: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time= :cry:
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Re: Florida Weather

#12886 Postby MetroMike » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:39 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:I really don't know the full answer to that patrick. Maybe a promet can tell you why. I'm sure it's got something to do with the easterly winds during summer. I can't find a good SAL satellite. Everyone I know is either down or sucks. Like this one: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time= :cry:

Seems all my SAL imagery links from Wisc.edu stopped working for some odd reason.
I too am now blind to the SAL loops.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12887 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:21 am

Patrick99 wrote:We are really in the easterly flow/SAL dog days this week.....very low rain chances through Friday. This is the kind of Miami summer weather I absolutely hate the most, high sun all day with nothing to provide any relief.

How is it that the SAL doesn't modify itself out more than it does, given that it has to travel thousands of miles over open water to get here? How does it stay intact for such a long trip over ocean?

These conditions are more reminiscent of the dry season in a droughty May than a normal August day. With the lack of tropical activity, the dry conditions are likely to continue, barring nontropical influences, particularly early-season cool fronts. I am coming back to the States at the very end of August and will be returning to Tampa Bay via Orlando (I am currently overseas). A dry August, fortunately, can be broken by a wet dry season, which seems probable in light of developing weak El Niño conditions. I am hoping for a solidly negative NAO to develop as we head into fall and winter 2018-19. That would certainly help the rainfall chances in Florida.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12888 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:41 pm

I just returned to the bay area after a 3 week siesta up north (which featured a number of sub 60 lows and sub 80 highs) and things still look green and lush around here so there's no doubt we've been getting abundant rainfall. However things dry out fast (and really heat up) with below climo rain coverage/intensity. the forecast definitely looks on the dry side of normal over the next few days. OTOH those same below climo rain chances tend to heat up coastal waters to a point where convection eventually wins and we get some heavy rain so I expect that will eventually happen.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12889 Postby boca » Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:36 pm

If it wasn’t for Alberto in late May we would be well below normal in rainfall in SE Florida. Their is nothing out there to take out of this pattern we are stuck in.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12890 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:23 am

NWS Miami now mentioning deeper moisture to advect over the area Saturday into Sunday, with higher chances, up to 50% for Sunday. I can see it on the low level water vapor loop, the leading edge of it looks like it's on a line from Exuma to Abaco, heading due west toward us.

I bet most of the activity fizzles before reaching us, redevelops inland and gets shoved over to the SW coast, though, and we remain under the brutal heat lamp that is the subtropical sun this time of year.....that seems to be how these things often go.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12891 Postby canes92 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:34 pm

Always be grateful when it actually does rain no matter how annoying it can be. So far this year, each month in FL has had its own weather patterns that start right at the beginning of the month. August has been drier, in comparison with July.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12892 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:23 pm

Overall it has been a disappointing rainy season here at my locale. Outside of the rain caused by Alberto early on, it has been pretty dry with no rain most days. Most of the activity is inland or pushed over to Naples on the other coast.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12893 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:35 am

gatorcane wrote:Overall it has been a disappointing rainy season here at my locale. Outside of the rain caused by Alberto early on, it has been pretty dry with no rain most days. Most of the activity is inland or pushed over to Naples on the other coast.


It's been a better rainy season here in Miami than some I've seen over the past several years, for what it's worth. We've been in the typical form-over-the-Turnpike, then move over the Glades and West Coast pattern that leaves us hot and dry for weeks now, but before that, in early August, parts of July and June, we had plenty of days with some good storms.

I feel like for much of the past decade, outside of the influence of any tropical systems later on, our rainy season has more or less shut down in mid-June, giving way to the SAL/easterly flow pattern for the whole rest of the summer. From where I sit, this year has actually been better....though of course, in the past couple weeks, I've been getting real tired of baking in the sun from 8AM to 6PM with zero relief.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12894 Postby psyclone » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:59 am

Finally a multi day pattern is setting up that favors a classic late afternoon/early evening convective blowup on the west coast with storms heading out into the Gulf. I'm really looking forward to some good thunderstorms and the rain cooled air that follows.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12895 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:07 am

It's been an epic rainy season in Port Saint Lucie so far. I'll post totals at the end of August.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12896 Postby psyclone » Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:47 am

With a good ESE flow and morning convection on the east coast we should see a really active afternoon of hefty storm coverage as things converge on the western side of the state. good radar watch day on tap.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12897 Postby MetroMike » Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:58 am

psyclone wrote:With a good ESE flow and morning convection on the east coast we should see a really active afternoon of hefty storm coverage as things converge on the western side of the state. good radar watch day on tap.


Hope you are correct. But the pattern has not been too favorable for convection to hold together here on the west coast lately.
Many days we just get leftover sprinkles once they traverse the state.
Strange pattern this summer not really to my liking.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12898 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:23 am

Yesterday's storm was the best of the Summer for me. Dark as night at 6 pm and tremendous lightning and torrential rain. And as a bonus it was cool enough last evening for a nocturnal run among the happy frogs. We're in the hunt again this afternoon/evening with seabreeze/outflow collisions favoring the west coast beaches. I've waited the whole summer for this typical rainy season pattern to set up.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12899 Postby canes92 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:16 pm

Mood seems to be shifting towards fall now, too bad us Floridians got to wait another month versus the rest of the country for some cooler weather.
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Re: Florida Weather

#12900 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:59 am

Severe Thunderstorm Came Through St. Petersburg Today- had gusts of 60 mph. Lots of lightning too. I uploaded the video to my YouTube channel Tampa Bay Storm Chaser.

Link: https://youtu.be/P1bB4wmNVNE
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