Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Outstanding AFD just out from Tampa NWS, going into detail about what they expect from the system and lengthy discussion of the various hazards it poses. It's too long to quote here so I'll just link it: https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/1812190128.fxus62.html

Really nice technical discussion. The words “climatological record” was mentioned a couple of times.
Really interesting to see how this all plays out. Outside across my local in coastal Palm Beach county it is very quiet with little wind and just a few puffy cumulus moving slowly west under relatively cool conditions, crickets chirping. Hard to believe in less than 48 hours, the weather will be so much different with high wind gusts and an approaching squall line. Will call it “the calm before the storm.”

[SFLcane]

North trend with severe wx on the gfs continues now near Tampa it seems. Maybe just a few showers across sfl

[chaser1]

Conversely, the latest 0Z high resolution 3K NAM is now depicting the surface low to form further south and east of it's previous run. At 19Z Thursday, a 4 mb deeper low is now sitting just west of Ceder Key rather then over Panama City (prior run). Cyclogenesis occuring further south and near the base of the sharply dropping 500 mb trough would seem to minimally indicate an increased pressure gradient and increased risk of severe weather over all Florida. In fact, the NAM seems to indicate an increasing risk of severe weather for South/Central & Southwest Florida associated with the warm front (in advance of the squall line Wed. night.

I'll be interested to hear if the EURO maintains or backs off it's bullish wind forecast for much of Florida.

[chaser1]

North trend with severe wx on the gfs continues now near Tampa it seems. Maybe just a few showers across sfl

You're right about the last two GFS runs trending the severe weather further north then prior runs, but to me it still appears to depict all S. Florida to get a significant rain event. Besides, there's still way too much spread between the models on the details for this weather event. It's for that reason why I think most Florida NWS offices might be reluctant to raise some of their Watches until even late tomorrow afternoon.

Seems to me that the most obvious and ominous threat where Watches should already be initiated, would be Coastal Flood Watches for the Keys and Florida west coast, Gale Watch or Warnings for Gulf Coastal Waters and at Atlantic offshore waters, and initializing Special Weather Statements for West Coast risk of Coastal Beach Erosion.

[northjaxpro]

Flood Watch has been posted for the Suwannee River Valley counties, and the interior counties of Northeast Florida in anticipation of forecast of up to 1to 3 inches of additional rainfall in those areas. These areas have been completely saturated due to recent events ober the past few weeks across the region.

Tampa NWS office also issued Flood Watch for the Nature Coast as well.

Gale Watch has been posted for both Gulf and Atlantic coastal off shore waters, from Englewood to the mouth of the Suwannee River on the Gulf side, and from Fernandina Beach south to Flagler Beach on the Atlantic side.

NWS has not pulled the trigger yet on issuing Inland Wind advisories. I anticipate those will likely be issued by the time of their late afternoon forecast packages by 5 p.m. today.

Also, the north trend of the potential severe storm squall line set-up continues in the 06Z GFS run this morning. GFS now showing this setting up more closer to along the I-4 corridor. This is something to really watch the next 18 hours or so leading into the start of this event..

[boca]

We will get rain but not severe and the rain will probably last 30 minutes if we are lucky.The main rain is over north and Central Florida.We lucked out again, the drought continues. We just can’t seem to get weather down here in SE Florida

[TheStormExpert]

Guess the Euro was right yet again with the setup of the squall-line and where the heaviest rains occur. We’ll be lucky to pickup an inch of rain here, meanwhile folks in the north Florida who don’t need anymore rain will get waterlogged again.

[boca]

Guess the Euro was right yet again with the setup of the squall-line and where the heaviest rains occur. We’ll be lucky to pickup an inch of rain here, meanwhile folks in the north Florida who don’t need anymore rain will get waterlogged again.

We will be lucky to get 1/2 an inch with this system.Its very rare to get a squall line coming thru this part of Florida. We used to get squall lines back in the 70s and 80s but not any more.

[TheStormExpert]

Guess the Euro was right yet again with the setup of the squall-line and where the heaviest rains occur. We’ll be lucky to pickup an inch of rain here, meanwhile folks in the north Florida who don’t need anymore rain will get waterlogged again.

We will be lucky to get 1/2 an inch with this system.Its very rare to get a squall line coming thru this part of Florida. We used to get squall lines back in the 70s and 80s but not any more.

It’s rare for this time of year, but come late winter into spring things “hopefully” should change.

[gatorcane]

Yeah it looked to me the whole time like the best dynamics were going to be north of South Florida, more into Central and perhaps South-Central Florida, closer than previous systems but no cigar. We will get a line of showers and “pseudo squall line” with some decent rains here (unlike previous systems) along with some gusty winds for a couple of days but I had a hard time believing severe weather or even strong storms were on the way for us. The gusty winds may be the real story for us here.

[Bocadude85]

The SPC has all of South Florida in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow, it won’t take much to get damaging straight line winds with a 120kt jet in place. The newest discussion from NWS Miami is calling for 1-3 inches of rain.

[psyclone]

I notice storm cancel posts aren't just confined to the tropical season. South Florida's action has always been severe potential in the form of a fast moving squall line since they've got the best chance of rich instability and surface rooted convection. QPF has been secondary down that way and has always been modeled as such. As you head north the severe threat reduces and the heavy rain threat increases. The best severe threat probably resides south of I-4. But even in south florida respectable rain potential exists along with that decent chance of a good squall line. You guys are still in the hunt for an interesting day and I wouldn't be giving up by any means.

[chaser1]

I notice storm cancel posts aren't just confined to the tropical season. South Florida's action has always been severe potential in the form of a fast moving squall line since they've got the best chance of rich instability and surface rooted convection. QPF has been secondary down that way and has always been modeled as such. As you head north the severe threat reduces and the heavy rain threat increases. The best severe threat probably resides south of I-4. But even in south florida respectable rain potential exists along with that decent chance of a good squall line. You guys are still in the hunt for an interesting day and I wouldn't be giving up by any means.

Great post LOL. Honestly, I see the GFS underscoring what I believe will be a uncharacteristically solid squall line that will traverse ALL S. Florida. Be careful what you wish for because I believe there will be some widespread strong gusts to be had and several rainfall totals that will easily exceed 3". What's different about this event?? The upper support is not waning or pulling up. In fact it appears to still be slightly digging south and east. I expect to see this afternoon and evening model runs begin to better depict this convective activity tomorrow and light up like a Christmas tree. Footnote....... i'm in Orlando and my Melbourne office is calling for "showers" Thursday and Thursday night. Sure, the discussion sounds threatening enough but for whatever reason this hasn't been translated to our local forecast thus far.

[psyclone]

It sure is a fascinating system to watch. I wouldn't be shocked if an outlook upgrade to "enhanced" happens downstate with straight line wind potential. It makes sense that this threat would reside just south of the heavy rain bullseye where instability can be maxed due to less rain contamination before the arrival of the main line. I would think south of a Sarasota to Cape line....and probably getting into the MIA CWA. I suspect I'm more in the heavy rain zone and less in the severe zone for this one..subject to change as always.

[chaser1]

Just sitting here waiting for the 12Z GFS and musing over the list of members/guests presently viewing the entire S2K site....... just once would I like to see a model war break out between Bing (Bot) and Google (Bot)

[SFLcane]

I notice storm cancel posts aren't just confined to the tropical season. South Florida's action has always been severe potential in the form of a fast moving squall line since they've got the best chance of rich instability and surface rooted convection. QPF has been secondary down that way and has always been modeled as such. As you head north the severe threat reduces and the heavy rain threat increases. The best severe threat probably resides south of I-4. But even in south florida respectable rain potential exists along with that decent chance of a good squall line. You guys are still in the hunt for an interesting day and I wouldn't be giving up by any means.

Great post LOL. Honestly, I see the GFS underscoring what I believe will be a uncharacteristically solid squall line that will traverse ALL S. Florida. Be careful what you wish for because I believe there will be some widespread strong gusts to be had and several rainfall totals that will easily exceed 3". What's different about this event?? The upper support is not waning or pulling up. In fact it appears to still be slightly digging south and east. I expect to see this afternoon and evening model runs begin to better depict this convective activity tomorrow and light up like a Christmas tree. Footnote....... i'm in Orlando and my Melbourne office is calling for "showers" Thursday and Thursday night. Sure, the discussion sounds threatening enough but for whatever reason this hasn't been translated to our local forecast thus far.

This will be a pretty significant post frontal gradient wind event for a good chunk of the florida peninsula. Here is a view from the 00z EURO looks pretty potent to me

[psyclone]

BTW I cannot ever recall a simultaneous gale watch for the entire US Gulf coast. That is something..

[TheStormExpert]

As gatorcane mentioned the gusty westerly winds may very well be the biggest concern at the moment. Still there will be some sort of squall moving through you’d think and hopefully we can get some much desperately needed rain down here in South Florida. We still have time to recover before wildfire season begins in March and April.

[chaser1]

Wow. And that's "Base Reflectivity". Typically "Base Reflectivity" (at least for live radar) is much more muted then the Composite. Looking at the EURO 0Z, you can see where stronger cells within the squall line itself are poised to be approaching Cape Sable while riding up within the line itself. That would potentially bring fast moving squalls into Miami-Dade, Broward, and probably Palm Beach counties within a few hours shortly thereafter. Interestingly, the very sharp southwesterly 500 mb flow with wind speeds over 100 mph (depicted in this a.m. 12Z GFS 500 Geo Height forecast map) is actually lagging behind the squall line surface feature but IS moving eastward in tandem with it. As I see it, much delay in the squall line's eastward advancement will likely result in some ripping-serious meso cells within the line itself, probably close to daybreak as some cells within the line approach N.E. Dade/Broward/P.Beach counties prior to exiting/crossing the Atlantic coastline. In this hobby it can never be overstated - timing is everything.

[chaser1]

Also amazing is how this mid level flow is ripping south directly from Manitoba (ay!). I suspect we'll all begin to see our minimum forecast lows for Friday/Saturday nights to continue to trend a degree or two colder with each updating forecast. Had there been a broader U.S. snow-pack, such would have possibly resulted in nighttime temps into the 30's for much of Florida. Even though we're in an El Nino type set up and this outbreak was certainly not of Arctic origin it's interesting to note that much earlier long range forecast maps were projecting this mid level feature to be primarily cut-off and separated from any Northern stream jet. This was not the case. Will be curious to see whether we'll transition into a pattern primarily limited to Southern stream frontal passages, or if Florida might get the best of both worlds this January/February?