Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Was thinking how it is that SE Florida has managed to continue its streak of no landfalling hurricane since 2005? It is going on 14 years which is pretty remarkable when you see how many close calls through the years not to mention how the area has avoided a landfall the last few years as landfalls from majors are happening just about everywhere across the Caribbean and other parts of Florida. Irma did impact us but should have been far worse. How long will this streak last?

[psyclone]

Interesting to think that in the past year the Florida peninsula has been flanked by category 5 hurricanes. For me it serves as a reminder that no matter where you are on the peninsula you could be crushed by a storm of terrifying intensity. Just because it hasn't happened...doesn't mean it can't. One of the quickest ways to get burned in this biz or in life in general is to say it can't happen because it hasn't happened before. A year ago right now...Michael and Dorian hadn't happened. Count your blessings, enjoy the downtime and remember that peak season for peninsular FL is mid September through October.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting to think that in the past year the Florida peninsula has been flanked by category 5 hurricanes. For me it serves as a reminder that no matter where you are on the peninsula you could be crushed by a storm of terrifying intensity. Just because it hasn't happened...doesn't mean it can't. One of the quickest ways to get burned in this biz or in life in general is to say it can't happen because it hasn't happened before. A year ago right now...Michael and Dorian hadn't happened. Count your blessings, enjoy the downtime and remember that peak season for peninsular FL is mid September through October.

Well said Psyclone!

[canes92]

Was thinking how it is that SE Florida has managed to continue its streak of no landfalling hurricane since 2005? It is going on 14 years which is pretty remarkable when you see how many close calls through the years not to mention how the area has avoided a landfall the last few years as landfalls from majors are happening just about everywhere across the Caribbean and other parts of Florida. Irma did impact us but should have been far worse. How long will this streak last?

Florida used to get a lot more hurricanes from the 1900s-1940s. Since the 1950s, hurricane landfall in this state has actually decreased. This current decade ranks the lowest since 1970s and 80s (so far) for # of hurricane hits to the state. SE FL didn't get any storms from late 60s until Andrew in 92.

[psyclone]

Was thinking how it is that SE Florida has managed to continue its streak of no landfalling hurricane since 2005? It is going on 14 years which is pretty remarkable when you see how many close calls through the years not to mention how the area has avoided a landfall the last few years as landfalls from majors are happening just about everywhere across the Caribbean and other parts of Florida. Irma did impact us but should have been far worse. How long will this streak last?

Florida used to get a lot more hurricanes from the 1900s-1940s. Since the 1950s, hurricane landfall in this state has actually decreased. This current decade ranks the lowest since 1970s and 80s (so far) for # of hurricane hits to the state. SE FL didn't get any storms from late 60s until Andrew in 92.

Perhaps we're being fooled by randomness here. the tropics are probably operating on a pulse well in excess of a human lifetime or even our limited history. Maybe the hyperactivity of the early 1900's and relative quiet thereafter is reflective of a non Euclidean trip to normal which resides somewhere in between. The distribution is lumpy. a similar concept might be a "normal" winter high in florida vs the sensible wx. we usually run above or below normal in the winter. a normal day is pretty unusual...and frequently represents a stepping stone to another extreme..

[Shell Mound]

Interesting to think that in the past year the Florida peninsula has been flanked by category 5 hurricanes. For me it serves as a reminder that no matter where you are on the peninsula you could be crushed by a storm of terrifying intensity. Just because it hasn't happened...doesn't mean it can't. One of the quickest ways to get burned in this biz or in life in general is to say it can't happen because it hasn't happened before. A year ago right now...Michael and Dorian hadn't happened. Count your blessings, enjoy the downtime and remember that peak season for peninsular FL is mid September through October.

Worst-case scenarios, in my view:

1. Downtown Miami→Lake Okeechobee→Orlando→Jacksonville (modelled for IRMA)
2. Nassau, Bahamas→Fort Lauderdale→Tampa/St. Petersburg→Tallahassee, FL (modelled for DORIAN)
3. Havana, Cuba→Key West→Lake Okeechobee→Cape Canaveral, FL (late-season scenario)
4. Nassau→Miami/Fort Lauderdale→Fort Myers, FL→New Orleans, LA (modified version of ANDREW)

Imagine a large, slow-moving Cat-5 cyclone that follows one or more of these trajectories.

[canes92]

Was thinking how it is that SE Florida has managed to continue its streak of no landfalling hurricane since 2005? It is going on 14 years which is pretty remarkable when you see how many close calls through the years not to mention how the area has avoided a landfall the last few years as landfalls from majors are happening just about everywhere across the Caribbean and other parts of Florida. Irma did impact us but should have been far worse. How long will this streak last?

Florida used to get a lot more hurricanes from the 1900s-1940s. Since the 1950s, hurricane landfall in this state has actually decreased. This current decade ranks the lowest since 1970s and 80s (so far) for # of hurricane hits to the state. SE FL didn't get any storms from late 60s until Andrew in 92.

Perhaps we're being fooled by randomness here. the tropics are probably operating on a pulse well in excess of a human lifetime or even our limited history. Maybe the hyperactivity of the early 1900's and relative quiet thereafter is reflective of a non Euclidean trip to normal which resides somewhere in between. The distribution is lumpy. a similar concept might be a "normal" winter high in florida vs the sensible wx. we usually run above or below normal in the winter. a normal day is pretty unusual...and frequently represents a stepping stone to another extreme..

It'd be interesting to see how the trough, high pressure and other steering patterns were in the time span from 1900-1940s vs 1950s to now. I wonder if set up in weather patterns effected the overall climate. Some years FL gets hit multiple times, while we can go decades without anything. 1970s and 80s has mostly ts and weaker hurricanes. 1920s-1940s especially had lots of major hurricane hits. Of course the population in FL was only a tenth of what it is today.

Weather has been dry and sunny since Dorian. Looks like we'll be returning to wetter conditions soon. Love bugs are back too...

[psyclone]

This September so far has been very much like last year...very hot weather preserving oceanic heat...and, like last year this pattern looks to persist.

[Patrick99]

Obviously, we don't have enough of a sample size to truly be able to tell considering that our tracks only go back to 1851, and even then I'm not sure how accurate some of those older tracks are.....but a couple things jump out at me - South Florida used to get hit from the south with the old over-Cuba track more than it has in modern times, and some of these storms were legit Cat 3s and 4s, not borderline rainmakers like Irene. Granted, Wilma probably would have been that for us had it not taken a day long vacation over the Yucatan.....but other than that, I think you have to go all the way back to Hurricane King in 1950 to get a significant storm that hit us from the south in October, 1964 if you count Cleo earlier in the season. I'll give you Charley but again, that was earlier in the season.

As for August-September hits from the east, I swear I get the feeling that larger scale weather patterns have changed somewhat from what they were 1900-1969 or so. Maybe the overall pattern is a lot more progressive and less blocky than it used to be? It seems like these days, even in the dead of August and September you get these little shortwaves rippling across the US every other day and influencing anything that approaches, making it extremely difficult to get anything into South Florida, much less through South Florida and into the Gulf.

Our "luck" may just be a result of referencing current weather against past weather patterns that brought us many H hits but no longer exist, IMO.

[chaser1]

Florida used to get a lot more hurricanes from the 1900s-1940s. Since the 1950s, hurricane landfall in this state has actually decreased. This current decade ranks the lowest since 1970s and 80s (so far) for # of hurricane hits to the state. SE FL didn't get any storms from late 60s until Andrew in 92.

Perhaps we're being fooled by randomness here. the tropics are probably operating on a pulse well in excess of a human lifetime or even our limited history. Maybe the hyperactivity of the early 1900's and relative quiet thereafter is reflective of a non Euclidean trip to normal which resides somewhere in between. The distribution is lumpy. a similar concept might be a "normal" winter high in florida vs the sensible wx. we usually run above or below normal in the winter. a normal day is pretty unusual...and frequently represents a stepping stone to another extreme..

It'd be interesting to see how the trough, high pressure and other steering patterns were in the time span from 1900-1940s vs 1950s to now. I wonder if set up in weather patterns effected the overall climate. Some years FL gets hit multiple times, while we can go decades without anything. 1970s and 80s has mostly ts and weaker hurricanes. 1920s-1940s especially had lots of major hurricane hits. Of course the population in FL was only a tenth of what it is today.

Weather has been dry and sunny since Dorian. Looks like we'll be returning to wetter conditions soon. Love bugs are back too...

All around, some pretty good perspectives on historical and potential hurricane impact scenarios relative to the Florida peninsula. I don't have anything to add but do enjoy reading the conversation.

On a separate note.... love bugs are back?? Hadnt seen them up here in the Orlando area yet this Summer?

[FlaWeatherDude]

Wow the back side of Humberto has pushed some dry air down the Fla peninsula. The dewpoint in Orlando has dropped down to 59 degrees as of this hour.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Yes please.

[northjaxpro]

Hopefully this will protect.The Bahamas and the Southeast U.S. Coast and turn Jerry out to sea next week and hopefully away from Bermuda.

Also, this deep trough could bring our first good real touch of Fall in.our area by late next eerk. Looking forward to it !!!

[MetroMike]

Remember that IS the GFS.
Don't get your hopes up.

[northjaxpro]

Remember that IS the GFS.
Don't get your hopes up.

Yeah I am fully aware of this. But, I am praying this comes to fruition. God knows The Bahamas in particular does not need another potential cyclone bearing down them!! Lets hope for the best please!!

[psyclone]

Low 60's dewpoints and a good breeze feels divine. I often remind people that as long as summer is...non summer is longer and it's about to start.

[chaser1]

Low 60's dewpoints and a good breeze feels divine. I often remind people that as long as summer is...non summer is longer and it's about to start.

Well at least for me, "non summer" officially begins when not only the dew points begin to drop but when night-time temps here in Central Fl. generally make it down to the mid 60's and day-time highs are generally below 84. It may bounce close to there once or twice over the weeks to come but i'm guessing we're gonna need to get closer to Halloween to feel consistently milder. I guess for now, I'll have to to just be happy with it being simply "less hot" LOL. If nothing else, the sound of this Monday being the first day of Fall is at least a little. I'm anxiously awaiting for the Florida Iditarod to commence

[TheStormExpert]

Should have another slightly more impressive chance at seeing lower humidity/dew points and lower temperatures early next week! If anything this should be an indication that tropical threats from the SE are done for the season, now to look SW in the Western Caribbean.

[canes92]

Yes has been pleasant out lately. Feels almost like autumn. If it was 20 degrees cooler out, that'd be perfect.

[chaser1]

Yes please.

https://i.postimg.cc/QN0PvqM7/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-38.png

Well, that didn't last all too long LOL. Might wanna check out the GFS 500mb maps for 0Z on the 27th - HEAT RIDGE. Big mid level high over the CONUS Southeast and it looks pretty stuck in place for a while. Oh well, we can still dream....... Much luv for GFS though, at least it likes to dash everyone with a sprinkle of hope from time to time.