Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Don't be fooled by the fantasy freezes and cool downs from the GFS. Always compare those runs to the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks...when the latter trends warm (as it has consistently done) that's what wins. What is interesting now is the very amplified pattern showing up with exceptional warmth in the east (centered on the ohio valley) and cold in the west. Yesterday's 8-14 day showed maxed out warm anoms over the Ohio valley...implying record warmth up that way to start October. That definitely moats us off from any cooldowns anytime soon. Instead, we are dependent on decreasing solar insolation to take the foot off the gas (which is already working its magic)..but there is no brake tapping in sight. At least we have departed deep summer. it has dried out, and increased gradient breezes are making it nice. This really started with the departure of Dorian and there's no turning back now as we inch closer to October.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Hopfully this -NAO we're going into will retrograde the trough now forecasted to be dipping in the West/Central Atlantic by months end. Models are notorious for correcting trough placement westwards towards the East coast in these types of situations.

[psyclone]

We're locked in to extended summer in the east through the remainder of September and into October. Rainy season is over but mid latitude weather is not yet in sight. It's a pretty pleasing pattern if you ask me....but the transition to true fall and mid latitude weather is probably going to yield at least one tropical threat in October IMO...

[FlaWeatherDude]

Confidence is increasing for a pattern flip towards mid-October!

[psyclone]

this is evident in the cpc outlooks as well. climo cold front may well arrive on schedule this year.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: this is evident in the cpc outlooks as well. climo cold front may well arrive on schedule this year.

OMG that would be heaven!! Right now the GFS is advertising around Oct. 9th or 10th for a frontal passage. A bit far out but it's something to hope/look out for.

[psyclone]

10/10 is about the typical time for a legit front into central FL. some years its a bit earlier or later but its pretty remarkable how consistent it is. Prior to a legit fropa we tend to dry out. Daily rains dramatically reduce in the 2nd half of September (again central FL climo). That actually happened earlier than normal this year. Dorian disrupted the normal summer pattern and it never recovered. Now it is far too late. The drier than normal conditions have helped to enable the above normal temps we've had this month, along with abnormally strong ridging to our north (and anomalous troughing in the west). This pattern is showing signs of abating..as is evidenced in the daily CPC outlooks. The signs of seasonal change are very evident. they're slow but the wheels are and have been turning. As is often the case the GFS is way too fast and too bullish with cooler air...while the EURO is likely too slow.

[psyclone]

KTPA has had 1.45" of rain in September vs a normal of 6.3". This illustrates the degree to which Dorian disrupted our normal rainy season resulting in an early cutoff. We are also on track to hit or exceed 120 90+ degree highs for the season. Fall is welcome to show up anytime

[gatorcane]

Florida may have one big gate to get through before getting to enjoy cooler weather and that is the possibility of a significant hurricane creeping up from the south sometime in October.

[psyclone]

Florida may have one big gate to get through before getting to enjoy cooler weather and that is the possibility of a significant hurricane creeping up from the south sometime in October.

Or not. Regardless October is a month of dramatic transformation with mid latitude weather becoming dominant at our latitude. The next month should be interesting. It may include a tropical threat but it is certain to yield more comfy temp/humidity regimes. Should be fun for us weather watchers.

[FlaWeatherDude]

This'll be nice for next week!

[boca]

We haven’t had rain since Dorian when we had a few rain bands but nothing since than.We are now quite a few inches below normal as far as September. The models keep on pushing back any tropical development or drop it so prospects for rain is not looking good.

[gatorcane]

Is it me or did the rainy season in South Florida end way early this year? Seems to have ended once Dorian departed.

[psyclone]

It definitely ended early... early enough that we have really dried out. We had almost no standard summer convection here. Driest September I can recall.

[toad strangler]

Is it me or did the rainy season in South Florida end way early this year? Seems to have ended once Dorian departed.

Ended right after Dorian was on our doorstep. Very early.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Pretty much every model seems to be calling for an Autumn pattern next week except the 12z Gem. It's one of the only models calling for a continued Summer pattern over the East.

[Hurricaneman]

I think most of the reason for little rain is the hurricanes in the Bahamas significantly dropped the water temps there and that alone will stabilize the air but also high pressure

[northjaxpro]

Florida may have one big gate to get through before getting to enjoy cooler weather and that is the possibility of a significant hurricane creeping up from the south sometime in October.

Yeah, Today's 12Z GFS , although very long range gout out 336 hours, continues to advertise a potential very potent tropical cyclone cyclone moving out of the NW Caribbean and into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. GFS has been persistent showing this to occur aroung middle of this month.

[northjaxpro]

Florida may have one big gate to get through before getting to enjoy cooler weather and that is the possibility of a significant hurricane creeping up from the south sometime in October.

Yeah, Today's 12Z GFS, although very long range out out 336 hours, continues to advertise a potential very potent tropical cyclone moving out of the NW Caribbean and into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. GFS has been persistent showing this to occur around middle of this month.

[boca]

Rainy season is over and we need rain but none in sight.