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TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather

#16361 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:21 pm

psyclone wrote:It makes me wonder if the magic shield is indeed real. We usually have a legit invasion of refreshing autumn air by late October that gives us our first sub 60 lows of the season in the i-4 corridor. That doesn't look likely this year. We have been having lots of low to mid 70's lows as of late. we have to be torching for October in tampa bay. running up the numbers as we head for our warmest year on record.

Last November I remember we had an abnormally warm first half of November followed by a few weak but pronounced cool fronts the rest of November.

But you’re right! The last time I remember seeing a decent cold front pass through the state in October was a few days before Halloween in 2017. We managed to get into the low-mid 50’s the before and the day of Halloween.

But this year I feel like a repeat of last November is in the cards with a continuation of this never ending rainy season. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised to see a TC threaten the peninsula in November.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16362 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:23 pm

It is coming folks according to the GFS. Trick or treat?

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Re: Florida Weather

#16363 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:11 am

gatorcane wrote:It is coming folks according to the GFS. Trick or treat?

https://i.postimg.cc/wxQx28Qp/gfs-T2ma-seus-29.png

It’s a trick in my opinion. The current state of the NAO/PNA do not favor such a thing, the SE ridge will stay! :lol:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16364 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:52 pm

With a dead calm wind, humidity nearly 100%, and dew points in the mid-upper 70’s you’d think it was the middle of summer, not the middle of fall. :roll:

I can tell it’s going to be a warmer than average so-called winter down in these parts or whatever you want to call the season in between summer and summer. :lol:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16365 Postby psyclone » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:06 pm

It's freakishly hot by late October standards. current temp in tampa is 90 after a crisp low of 76. we're on track for the warmest October on record.
that's after the warmest july on record and the warmest summer on record. most impressively, we are on track for the warmest year on record. pretty wild stuff
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Re: Florida Weather

#16366 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:17 pm

psyclone wrote:It's freakishly hot by late October standards. current temp in tampa is 90 after a crisp low of 76. we're on track for the warmest October on record.
that's after the warmest july on record and the warmest summer on record. most impressively, we are on track for the warmest year on record. pretty wild stuff


Tampa is now reporting 92F when I just checked. Hurricane heading NW into the Gulf threatening the NGOM. Incredible warmth. Copious rainfall for South Florida the last several days and really just a wet month so far. It is like we are still in August.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16367 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:19 pm

Big front on the Euro and GFS. Since both are onboard, might finally get one through South Florida 8-)

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Re: Florida Weather

#16368 Postby MetroMike » Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:42 pm

Today Tampa recorded a high temp of 92f record dating back to 1939! I wonder if there are records for most record highs recorded in a given month at one location?
We have to be close if there is one.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16369 Postby psyclone » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:08 pm

I believe Tampa has had 8 record maxes for October so far. Not sure about record warm mins but we've probably cashed in on those as well. warmest october on record looks like a lock at this point. 13 highs of 90+ IIRC. Insane warmth.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16370 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:30 am

Still on track for a noticeable cool down early next week for all of Florida. 8-) :flag:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16371 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:46 am

I think it’s becoming safe to say Florida missed the wrath of this insanely active hurricane season. Talk about some luck! :eek:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16372 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:04 am

gatorcane wrote:Still on track for a noticeable cool down early next week for all of Florida. 8-) :flag:

Dew points in the 50’s will feel great after a very wet and muggy October.

Thankfully the ridge behind this front should force anything that tries to spin up in the Western Caribbean into Central America.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16373 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:25 am

NWS: Miami gearing up for the dry season.

 https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/1321482284525101057


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Re: Florida Weather

#16374 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:39 am

TheStormExpert wrote:NWS: Miami gearing up for the dry season.

https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/1321482284525101057


Looks like they are looking at the same thing I see. Bye, bye rainy season this weekend and likely the hurricane season for us as well. Dry, continental air incoming :eek:

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Re: Florida Weather

#16375 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:21 pm

NWS Miami:
The front is fairly weak, and is slow moving, but both the GFS and
the ECMWF both agree the front should push through the area by
Sunday morning. however, both show there may some showers that
linger over the far southern tip of the Florida peninsula through
the end of the weekend. By Monday, surface high pressure should
build to the north, and advect a drier air mass into the area for
at least the beginning of next week, with dew points in the upper
60s by Monday afternoon and in the mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16376 Postby psyclone » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:26 pm

Finally a legit front on the docket. we have some 70's for highs and 50's for lows in the point and click for central florida. it's going to feel chilly. can't wait..
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Re: Florida Weather

#16377 Postby FlaWeatherDude » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:19 pm

Looks like we have two legit shots of seeing dews across Orlando and Tampa dip into the 40's and 50's. First one on Friday(before winds veer the next day) and the second one early-mid next week! The way models are trending even Miami will get a taste of the second one!

The first front will cause a dew point gradient between central and south Florida though. The second one early next week will even give south Florida comfy dews.

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Last edited by FlaWeatherDude on Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16378 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:28 pm

I am SO, SO ready for some crisp, autumn weather. So sick of thud humid, unseasonable warmth, even here in Northeast Florida. I can not wait for the cool downs here into next week.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16379 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:41 pm

Here it comes Florida:

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Re: Florida Weather

#16380 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:04 am

Some nice fall weather on the way for Florida even South Florida. Latest disco from NWS Miami:

Long Term...
Friday night through Wednesday night...

Behind a cold front that should be through the area by Friday
night, a 500mb ridge builds over the Gulf of Mexico. however, the
ridge is flat, with nearly zonal flow just to the north of the
high. The surface front should stall over the Keys, according to
both the GFS and the ECMWF. With the main surface high well to the
north, this should allow for some of the moisture to creep back
into the southern portion of the area for Saturday, bringing a
chance of showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms to the
area.

By Sunday, a strong 500mb trough digs over the eastern United
States and the high that was to the north, is pushed off to the
east. This will allow for the stalled front to drift back to the
north, bringing some additional instability and moisture to South
Florida for Sunday, especially for the Atlantic waters and the
adjacent coast.

There is a strong surface low pressure system to the north, which
has its own cold front to push into the area. This front should
make its way through the area late Sunday into Monday. This second
front will advect a drier air mass into the area, with dew points
on Monday in the mid to upper 60s, and by Tuesday, from the upper
50s, west of the lake, to the mid 60s near the Atlantic coast.
This will also bring a cooler air mass into the area, with high
temperatures on tuesday only in the 70s.


This strong surface high, which is bringing the cooler and drier
weather, is forecast to remain over the area through the middle of
the week.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0
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