Florida Weather

[psyclone]

After another weekend of cold/breezy weather it looks like we're finally going to have some nicer weather by mid next week. Let's hope. it's been a cloudy, chilly and frequently miserable month and half around here..

[psyclone]

For those looking for nicer weather (where nice = sun and warmth) the extended outlooks all tilt warm and dry...so maybe the 2nd half will be better. Despite all the cool weather, we haven't had a threat of freezing temps this winter and that streak looks to remain intact..

[gatorcane]

The GFS is back to putting much of the state into the freezer after several runs of it staying bottled up north

The models are definitely trying to figure out what to do with the arctic airmass in the long-range and it bears watching here in Florida given the persistent below normal pattern this winter so far.



Watch it descend:

[psyclone]

Too many long range fake outs from the GFS to give it much credence but this is a little closer in at the right time of the year. My gut says no meaningful freeze threat this year...but we still have time. In the near term...a nice sunny warm up is on tap after this weekend's chilly temps.

[boca]

We have a better shot at a hurricane forming in January and hitting Miami than getting an arctic front here in South Florida it’s not going to happen because of the blocking taking place off Greenland that NDG brought up a couple of days ago.

[NDG]

The GFS is back to putting much of the state into the freezer after several runs of it staying bottled up north

The models are definitely trying to figure out what to do with the arctic airmass in the long-range and it bears watching here in Florida given the persistent below normal pattern this winter so far.

https://i.postimg.cc/C149jBYD/gfs-T2m-seus-49.png

Watch it descend:

https://i.postimg.cc/8c4JQHG5/gfs-T2ma-us-fh192-288.gif

Come on gatorcane, if you are going to post such an extreme GFS run on its long range at least wait for some consistency, not just from one run, along with some support from its ensembles

There could be an Arctic intrussion into the US but the GEFS sypnotic set up does not support its core to dive south into FL.

[NDG]

Fairly cool weather pattern this Meteorological Winter so far across the Gulf Coast and FL but not one record low here in FL from the I-4 corridor down to S FL, unlike December 2010.
The same blocking up in Canada that has kept a very active cool pattern across the south has kept the Arctic air from coming across Canada into the US.

[boca]

It looks like the cool weather is about to end and be replaced by warm and dry. Someone wake me up when we get another pattern change this is absolutely dull. I guess I’ll live on the Texas thread hoping for exciting weather for them.The NAO looks like it will be positive in the next few weeks.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I love this winter so far. Cool nights and warm days. Don't remember wearing my hoodie so much this winter in long time. NAO/AO been pretty negative this year then past years. Keeping us pretty cool. Haven't seen 80 in awhile. PNA going negative probably keep the impending artic air farther west. So I guess enjoy the cool/warm weather. Cause thats all we got.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /pna.shtml

[NDG]

Yeah, the upcoming -PNA pattern will keep the core of the cold air well to the north and west of us, it will also bring much needed rains to California.

[Patrick99]

It looks like the cool weather is about to end and be replaced by warm and dry. Someone wake me up when we get another pattern change this is absolutely dull. I guess I’ll live on the Texas thread hoping for exciting weather for them.The NAO looks like it will be positive in the next few weeks.

It's amazing how "normal" it has been. Hasn't been cooler than normal, hasn't been warmer than normal.

Got to expect the SW Atlantic/Caribbean ridge to start flexing its muscle near or over us at some point soon. Especially with a +NAO.

[boca]

I enjoyed the cool weather for the last 3 weeks.The pattern is ending and the southeast ridge will be back and keep us in the low to mid 80s and low 70s at night and the ac will have to go back on. Let’s also hope we get rain soon as well.

[Patrick99]

GFS isn't showing much rain for us. Next Thursday-Friday-Sat looks cool-ish but nothing crazy. Beginning to strongly suspect that South Florida makes it through another winter without any freezes, much less any significant ones. Climatologically, we've basically got until Feb. 9-10, Valentine's Day at the latest, but if it didn't happen in January with a -NAO, that's probably it for this winter.

[psyclone]

I think you're right WRT freeze potential. we've skated through the most dangerous time of year. Now that we're a month post solstice the longer days will work their magic. It's kind of impressive that we had a good bit of temps normal to somewhat below normal but not a single meaningful freeze threat through early and mid winter. Just like hurricane season we thread the needle quite a bit...thank goodness. This upcoming sunny and warm weather is going to be divine

[HURRICANELONNY]

Long way out. But maybe some more cold in about 10 days according to NWS:
A day or two outside of the long term period
gets spicy as a deep, amplifying trough and low pressure system
crosses the eastern CONUS and pushes a strong cold front through
South Florida. Since this is outside the 7 day forecast period,
uncertainty exists, though models suggest a much cooler
continental airmass advects into the region.

[NDG]

Long way out. But maybe some more cold in about 10 days according to NWS:
A day or two outside of the long term period
gets spicy as a deep, amplifying trough and low pressure system
crosses the eastern CONUS and pushes a strong cold front through
South Florida. Since this is outside the 7 day forecast period,
uncertainty exists, though models suggest a much cooler
continental airmass advects into the region.

I am really surprised how the Miami NWS office sticks its head past the 7 day range, especially in this case when is only the GFS that has been showing a strong back door cold front passing through next weekend, which don't amount to too much in colder temps down there.

[NDG]

Nothing but a typical La Nina pattern setting in across FL over the next couple of weeks, time to turn on the A/C & sprinklers, lots of flowering plants & trees will be blooming.

[boca]

Long way out. But maybe some more cold in about 10 days according to NWS:
A day or two outside of the long term period
gets spicy as a deep, amplifying trough and low pressure system
crosses the eastern CONUS and pushes a strong cold front through
South Florida. Since this is outside the 7 day forecast period,
uncertainty exists, though models suggest a much cooler
continental airmass advects into the region.

I am really surprised how the Miami NWS office sticks its head past the 7 day range, especially in this case when is only the GFS that has been showing a strong back door cold front passing through next weekend, which don't amount to too much in colder temps down there.[/quote

Key West NWS does that too once in awhile but I read Tampa and Melbourne just to get consistency, but Miami will stick its neck out just to be wrong in a few days from now. I just looked at NWS Miami and the dropped the strong cold front idea( what a shocker NOT!!!). My ac is ready to go again.

[Patrick99]

Long way out. But maybe some more cold in about 10 days according to NWS:
A day or two outside of the long term period
gets spicy as a deep, amplifying trough and low pressure system
crosses the eastern CONUS and pushes a strong cold front through
South Florida. Since this is outside the 7 day forecast period,
uncertainty exists, though models suggest a much cooler
continental airmass advects into the region.

I am really surprised how the Miami NWS office sticks its head past the 7 day range, especially in this case when is only the GFS that has been showing a strong back door cold front passing through next weekend, which don't amount to too much in colder temps down there.[/quote

Key West NWS does that too once in awhile but I read Tampa and Melbourne just to get consistency, but Miami will stick its neck out just to be wrong in a few days from now. I just looked at NWS Miami and the dropped the strong cold front idea( what a shocker NOT!!!). My ac is ready to go again.

Yeah, I am not sure what they were looking at. One GFS run? I must have missed that one. It does look cooler in that timeframe, but hardly noteworthy for now.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't remember the scientists name and I gotta get ready for work but he studies the polar vortex. It is hard to figure where the artic air will end up. Europe for sure but the US is hard to pinpoint timing and vector. They keep talking about warming in the stratophere and its effect on how much cold will come in the US. I guess its hard to figure out. By the way the front is back for us in a week. Don't know what models shows it. It's in the MIami Discussion 1/22.
Present indications are that more substantial
surface cyclogenesis will occur off the Carolinas Coast on Thursday
in response to strong upper-level forcing. This will lead to the
development of a trailing cold front (potentially robust) across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico -- which should move toward South
Florida late in the week. Model guidance is fairly consistent
with a strong cold front moving through the area, though
differences in timing of the frontal passage remain evident.