Florida Weather

[psyclone]

that 8-14 day outlook is unnerving. it shows 70% anoms down to central florida...the great lakes max out only one category higher at 80. That's probably one of the worst 8-14 days (for those that fear freezes) in a long time. No comfort there. not even close. more like alarm bells.

[gatorcane]

Gulp GFS trend to Euro?

[MetroMike]

I will not get concerned until this forecast comes into the shorter range.
Wonder how much climatology plays into the models predictions?

[SFLcane]

18z Gfs with freezing temps to near broward...

[psyclone]

Good thing this is far out. we've got lots of time for more sane solutions to appear.

[gatorcane]

18z Gfs with freezing temps to near broward...

A closer look...interesting how there is some 25-30 degree temp difference beteeen South and North Florida. Obviously details don’t mean much this far out but might the core of the cold just miss South Florida?

[SFLcane]

18z Gfs with freezing temps to near broward...

A closer look...interesting how there is some 25-30 degree temp difference beteeen South and North Florida. Obviously details don’t mean much this far out but might the core of the cold just miss South Florida?

https://i.postimg.cc/XqXZC0tf/gfs-T2m-seus-44.png

Nope at fantasy 300hr freezing is south of the lake.

[boca]

Very rare to see temps below 45 here along SE Florida and I don’t see that happening until it’s within 3 days.

[TheStormExpert]

Very rare to see temps below 45 here along SE Florida and I don’t see that happening until it’s within 3 days.

And just that fast the 00z GFS completely drops it.

[boca]

Very rare to see temps below 45 here along SE Florida and I don’t see that happening until it’s within 3 days.

And just that fast the 00z GFS completely drops it.

I’m going to have 4 days of winter I’m going to New York on the 24th hopefully seeing snow or flurries. Than coming back to 50s at night and 70s during the day. The NAO is not going negative so these model predictions are just a grain of salt.

[NDG]

Let me remind everyone that the GFS past its 5 day range and the Euro past its 6-7 day range is mainly for entertainment purposes only when they show an extreme solution like yesterday's 12z Euro and GFS's 18z run.
Don't forget that they were both showing 20s all the way down to Lake O for Monday morning on its 5-10 day range.
Not saying that it could not happen but use it with a caution on that range because chances of not coming to fruition are higher than in their shorter term

[northjaxpro]

I do not want to lose sight on potential heavy weather up here late tonight with the approach of the strong cold front, which will be coming through Northeast Florida between 11 p.m. - 3 a.m. tomorrow morning.

Models showing potential of possible severe thunderstorms up across Georgia and a line of storms developing along and just ahead of the frontal boundary. It is definitely something I will be closely monitoring late tonight.

Also, still on track for the colder, inland locales across North and Northeast Florida seeing a light freeze on Monday morning with temps expected to drop in the lower 30s in most areas.

There will be plenty of time to talk about the extended range arctic air outbreak potential. a bit later...

[NDG]

No wonder the 18z GFS was so extremely cold for the entire eastern US, it shows the PV currently over the northern Hudson Bay dropping down to the Great Lakes!!
That's very rare to see.

[HURRICANELONNY]

You ain't lying about looking past 5 days on models NDG. The kickoff forecasted around 0 on kickoff for KC/NE game Sunday. Now it's going to be in the 20's.

[northjaxpro]

No wonder the 18z GFS was so extremely cold for the entire eastern US, it shows the PV currently over the northern Hudson Bay dropping down to the Great Lakes!!
That's very rare to see.

https://i.imgur.com/xkbpW0v.png

It is NDG. It is extremely rare. Actually the 18Z GFS run from yesterday was actually playing catch-up to the 12Z EURO which initially showed the PV displaced much farther southward. We discussed it yesterdsy.

We still have a quite a bit of time left about this, and we just need to wait for run to run consistency from the models about the extended range. I hope by at least Tuesday of next week, we should have a bit clearer picture from our reliable models about this arctic potential.

More later......

[NDG]

No wonder the 18z GFS was so extremely cold for the entire eastern US, it shows the PV currently over the northern Hudson Bay dropping down to the Great Lakes!!
That's very rare to see.

https://i.imgur.com/xkbpW0v.png

It is NDG. It is extremely rare. Actually the 18Z GFS run from yesterday was actually playing catch-up to the 12Z EURO which initially showed the PV displaced much farther southward. We discussed it yesterdsy.

We still have a auite a bit of time to go about this, and we just need to wait out looking for consistency from the models about the extended range. I hope by at least Tuesday of next week, we should have a bit clearer picture from our reliable models about this arctic potential.

More later......

I tell you what if the NAO & AO go way negative over the next couple of weeks the displaced piece of PV over Hudson Bay moving down into the US could really happen, very important to watch over the next few days.

[northjaxpro]

No wonder the 18z GFS was so extremely cold for the entire eastern US, it shows the PV currently over the northern Hudson Bay dropping down to the Great Lakes!!
That's very rare to see.

https://i.imgur.com/xkbpW0v.png

It is NDG. It is extremely rare. Actually the 18Z GFS run from yesterday was actually playing catch-up to the 12Z EURO which initially showed the PV displaced much farther southward. We discussed it yesterdsy.

We still have a auite a bit of time to go about this, and we just need to wait out looking for consistency from the models about the extended range. I hope by at least Tuesday of next week, we should have a bit clearer picture from our reliable models about this arctic potential.

More later......

I tell you what if the NAO & AO go way negative over the next couple of weeks the displaced piece of PV over Hudson Bay moving down into the US could really happen, very important to watch over the next few days.

Yes sir indeed. It always is about the Polar Vortex in these very anomalous, massive large scaled patterns like this evolving one now.This is what I am really focusing on as well. The PV placement, if the EURO and GFS solutions hold up over the next few days, well, the potential of serious cold in this region reallycould get insane folks.

I don't want to get too far ahead right now. Again, looking for continued run to run consistency next few days...

[TheStormExpert]

No wonder the 18z GFS was so extremely cold for the entire eastern US, it shows the PV currently over the northern Hudson Bay dropping down to the Great Lakes!!
That's very rare to see.

https://i.imgur.com/xkbpW0v.png

It’s also why during hurricane season it’s called the “Happy Hour” GFS run.

[NDG]

It is NDG. It is extremely rare. Actually the 18Z GFS run from yesterday was actually playing catch-up to the 12Z EURO which initially showed the PV displaced much farther southward. We discussed it yesterdsy.

We still have a auite a bit of time to go about this, and we just need to wait out looking for consistency from the models about the extended range. I hope by at least Tuesday of next week, we should have a bit clearer picture from our reliable models about this arctic potential.

More later......

I tell you what if the NAO & AO go way negative over the next couple of weeks the displaced piece of PV over Hudson Bay moving down into the US could really happen, very important to watch over the next few days.

Yes sir indeed. It always is about the Polar Vortex in these very anomalous, massive large scaled patterns like this evolving one now.This is what I am really focusing on as well. The PV placement, if the EURO and GFS solutions hold up over the next few days, well, the potential of serious cold in this region reallycould get insane folks.

I don't want to get too far ahead right now. Again, looking for continued run to run consistency next few days...

I was going back to when the models were showing 20s come down to Lake O for this Monday and Tuesday, the reason I think they were showing this was because they were forecasting the PNA to go positive but instead it has stayed near neutral this weekend, now the models again show the PNA to go positive, we shall see.

[northjaxpro]

Eventually, teleconnections are headed for + PNA , - AO and - NAO by the end of January.