Florida Weather

[toad strangler]

floridasun78 has also been MIA. He wrote in broken English and was here for pretty much every event. Hasn't logged in since early Sept.
Best wishes to all.

[NDG]

Here are the latest 06z GFS and 06z Euro forecasted lows for Saturday morning. The Euro has warmed up a couple of degrees in the last couple of runs, not showing the freezing line reaching I-4 any more.
Here in the Orlando area we will go from highs in the low 80s tomorrow Christmas Eve to waking up to near 40 degrees Christmas day with highs remaining in the 50s, shorts one day heavy jackets the next day.

[chaser1]

For those such as myself doing an out-door Covid-19 distanced family gathering for Christmas Eve, this forecast is tricky to nail down how much of the afternoon/evening will be rainy.

Having the hardest time figuring out the near-term precip and strong storm potential timing for the Jensen Beach to Vero region Christmas Eve. Global models seems to be consistent that Central & South Florida will at minimum be under a canopy of rain up from mid afternoon to midnight(ish). Meanwhile the Rapid Refresh and NAM's seem less to be less impressed with broad scale lift and rain ahead of the frontal passage and largely 'line-out" a narrow band of possibly strong storms just ahead of the front. My best guess is that it'll be breezy with light rain starting late afternoon with a fast approaching 30 to 45 minute stronger band of weather somewhere between 6-8 that evening. My outdoor turkey and ham is looking wet. Social distancing might just leave me to eat my food in the garage or bathroom LOL.

[gatorcane]

Here are the latest 06z GFS and 06z Euro forecasted lows for Saturday morning. The Euro has warmed up a couple of degrees in the last couple of runs, not showing the freezing line reaching I-4 any more.
Here in the Orlando area we will go from highs in the low 80s tomorrow Christmas Eve to waking up to near 40 degrees Christmas day with highs remaining in the 50s, shorts one day heavy jackets the next day.

https://i.imgur.com/w8VwWtf.png
https://i.imgur.com/V5h3pcR.png

12Z Euro looks to have gone back colder night of Christmas with 34F for metro Orlando with even some patchy frost, and a freeze for some pockets north of Orlando, the freeze line is back down to the I-4 corridor. Tampa low of 33F. Also note there will be a north wind at around 10mph making it feel even colder. Bottom-line even if no widespread freeze occurs is that it is going to be cold, arguably the coldest Christmas for Florida in decades.

[FlaWeatherDude]

With models forecasting dewpoints in the teens, I think it'll be too dry for widespread frost across central Florida.

[psyclone]

Definitely a shot of poorly timed weather misery for the state. Our local met said the coldest Christmas since 1995.. which predates me being a Florida resident. The 95-96 winter in the great lakes was a doozy and I remember deep snow that Christmas..I want my la nina winter por favor!

[HurricaneBelle]

Been a Floridian since 1976 (my family moved down shortly after we experienced Hurricane Belle on Long Island, hence the user name), so aside from remembering the time it actually snowed here in Florida in January 1977 (which I didn't fully appreciate at the time), I recall some big-time Xmas freezes. 1983 saw us in the Tampa Bay Area down into the 20s, and it was followed a week later by another freeze on New Year's 1984. Then in 1989 we had another serious cold outbreak, with the high on Christmas Eve being something like 38 - with sun. And on the 23rd we had sleet which stuck to the cars (North Florida esp. the Jacksonville area had a White Christmas). Finally I recall Christmas Eve 1993 being a cold, raw day with rain and temps in the 40s.

But yeah it's been ages since Christmas was truly cold around here, so it'll be a nice change.

[gatorcane]

Time to start looking at the high res models. RGEM is colder on the 06Z than the 00Z. Note it is a derivative of the CMC so looks to have its cold bias

[TheHurricaneGod]

Looks like I'll be wearing shorts or maybe a long sleeve shirt, because Fort Lauderdale has a high of 60 tomorrow. I leave for there in less than 24 hours. It's a scorching 56 degrees because of a S wind here in Dover DE.

[NDG]

Merry Christmas, here is the latest 06z GFS and Euro forecasted lows for Saturday morning, the Euro has moved the freezing line back north of I-4 again during the last couple of runs.
Yes, tomorrow will be coldest Christmas day within the last 20 years but nothing beats Christmas eve and day of 1995 and 1989.
Christmas Eve of 1989, Orlando saw a high of only 37F after a low of 22F, close to 16 hrs subfreezing, the coldest recorded temp at MCO ever.

Here is the latest GFS MOS guidance forecasted lows:
JAX: 24F
Tallahassee: 25F
Ocala: 24F
Orlando: 35F
Tampa: 37F
Ft Myers: 41F
West Palm: 42F
Miami: 45F

[NDG]

Merry Christmas.
I guess that out of precaution they placed Orlando under a freeze warning.
MOS shows 35F, raw GFS 39F, raw Euro 34F

[gatorcane]

It is colder right now in most of Florida than in Maine.

[MetroMike]

It is colder right now in most of Florida than in Maine.

https://i.postimg.cc/k5C9y24s/current-temperature.png

That about sums up how dreadful this month has been and the winter so far.

[NDG]

As always, the freeze warnings for Orlando didn't materialize, only the farther northern areas in northern Lake County and inland areas Volusia county was where temps briefly reached 32 degrees, the Euro and MOS guidance did a good job.

[NDG]

GFS and Euro are trending for the possibility of severe wx for New Year's eve across the Peninsula, something to watch over the next few days as time gets closer.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Won't get any of that down here NDG. A shower or 2 next weekend. If that is the coolest I'll feel for this winter. I'd be satisfied. Didn't really expect this much cool air this winter. Better then last I think. Keeping an eye on CPC teleconnections seems like will stay neg AO/NAO for awhile. PNA staying little postive. Which is way better then last winter. Forecast is for warm/dry winter because of La NIna but that is not set in stone. So maybe some more fronts in the future.

[boca]

Won't get any of that down here NDG. A shower or 2 next weekend. If that is the coolest I'll feel for this winter. I'd be satisfied. Didn't really expect this much cool air this winter. Better then last I think. Keeping an eye on CPC teleconnections seems like will stay neg AO/NAO for awhile. PNA staying little postive. Which is way better then last winter. Forecast is for warm/dry winter because of La NIna but that is not set in stone. So maybe some more fronts in the future.

It’s rare that we get a cold front with weather associated with it this far south because the upper level support moves NE and we are left with a broken line of showers that fall apart by the time it reaches us.

[NDG]

The trend during the past 24 hrs is for the threat of severe wx NYE diminishing on each consecutive run, which is good, a nice & warm NYE increasing

[psyclone]

Thank goodness we're warming up. I hate the cold but i really hate the dry... Low dewpoint air just wrecks me

[boca]

The storm expert is MIA too because he would chime in too as well during the non hurricane season I did like him he was a good poster.