Florida Weather

[psyclone]

For an impactful winter event in florida my benchmark is freeze potential that extends into the agricultural zones. The latest discussion out of NWS Ruskin keeps freeze potential early next week out of those regions and confines it to the usual cold zones in the nature coast. Naturally this is subject to change and with temps running below normal at what is already the coldest time of the year we are definitely walking on egg shells wrt substantial freeze threats. Having said that...as of now we are looking ok.

[northjaxpro]

The thing you have to keep in perspective is the entire big picture. There are so many moving, critical components which will determine the extent and magnitude of the cold pattern over the next several weeks.

1. First, the establishment of the Polar Vortex has yet to be completed. It will be around the end of this month for this to be completed. It is forecast to be in position near Hudson Bay.


This is still in process

2. The model ensembles are in very good consensus that 500 mb ridging will be quite evident across the Pacific/Western Canada/ Alaska and impressive ridging over Greenland by the end of this month. The models, if they are right about the 500 mb pattern, should yield to a +PNA, -AO and -NAO teleconnections by the start of February. The ridging I am seeing in the long range across Greenland usually always a solid harbinger of a very good -negative NAO . I would be very surprised if this would not materialize, especially given the indicators in the pattern shift now.

GEFS confirmed yesterday we are solidly now in a - NAO index

3. Expect models in the 5 -10 day range to change with this large massive pattern shift because it is very progressive . Remember, forecasting the timing of these massive Arctic Highs. and these shortwaves/disturbances always, always are very challenging. It is the same for these models in the short to medium term.


Yesterday's 12Z Canadian and 18Z GFS runs proved these very points I made in this post a couple of days ago. Both have different solutions from yesterday.

[NDG]

12z Euro is even warmer than last night's run with freezing temps no where close to the I-4 corridor. Monday morning.

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS also warmer. In fact, it shifts the base of the upper
trough axis at 06Z Monday morning east of the peninsula at that time this particular run.

12Z temps now only at 32 degrees for Jax for Monday morning, as compared to 26 degrees on yesterday the GFS indicated for us. Considerable change indeed.


But, as we all know, and have already seen from yesterday, these models can change very quickly. We have to monitor carefully the next few days.

[boca]

The NAO isn’t exactly tanking but that could change as of today it’s still positive. Hoping it dives real soon.

[northjaxpro]

The NAO isn’t exactly tanking but that could change as of today it’s still positive. Hoping it dives real soon.

It will. Remember everything I have posted about this Boca.....

[northjaxpro]

The NAO isn’t exactly tanking but that could change as of today it’s still positive. Hoping it dives real soon.

It will. GEFS has already confirmed yesterday the -NAO index has commenced! Remember everything I have posted about this Boca.....

[boca]

Oh I remember I’m just waiting for this whole scenario to play out.

[psyclone]

Just checking my NWS forecast and it shows the coldest lows on Sunday and Monday night for me are in the low 40's. Monday's high is only in the mid 50's but Tuesday rebounds to the mid 60's...so as of now we've got a good bit of wiggle room with that episode. There are no doubt more cold invasions in the pipeline per the extended outlooks but this first shot at bat looks like a swing and a miss WRT freeze potential...at least as of now.

[FlaWeatherDude]

I had doubts about next monday's front giving upper 20's to Orlando(for the same reasons Jax mentioned). But anytime around very late month into Feb I'm fairly confident we'll see the coldest air in a long time!

[floridasun78]

nws here miami don't say yet how cold will be south fl with next front we know better by friday their want see models do by Friday and saying now we see strong storms over south fl by Sunday as front pass by their saying low 50 now

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, we will have likely a light freeze here on Monday morning and across all of North Florida. It will be an advective freeze with brisk northerly winds driving the cold air through the region.

Guidance currently indicating upper 20s colder interior locales and lower 30s in Jax metro area.


The Arctic High dome appears that it will not drop south down into the Deep South on this occasion, and instead, it will shift off the Mid-Atlanic coast by Tuesday, turning our flow onshore on the peninsula beginning early Tuesday. Therefore, the central peninsula will likely escape a freeze with this initial cold surge.


As Psyclone stated a bit earlier, there will be more arctic potential surges coming down the pike as we get into late January and into February. This is just getting started.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: Yeah, we will have likely a light freeze here on Monday morning and across all of North Florida. It will be an advective freeze with brisk northerly winds driving the cold air through the region.

Guidance currently indicating upper 20s colder interior locales and lower 30s in Jax metro area.


The Arctic High dome appears that it will not drop south down into the Deep South on this occasion, and instead, it will shift off the Mid-Atlanic coast by Tuesday, turning our flow onshore on the peninsula beginning early Tuesday. Therefore, the central peninsula will likely escape a freeze with this initial cold surge.


As Psyclone stated a bit earlier, there will be more arctic potential surges coming down the pike as we get into late January and into February. This is just getting started.

Always a saving grace...some 40’s inland areas and around 50 at the coast. Nws is not buying into any of those artic intrusions into fl. Not that I want it I had mine in 2010 so I will pass thx.

[HurricaneBelle]

0Z GFS now calling for a high of 67 and a low of 49 in Tampa for Monday. At this rate it will end up being 80.

[NDG]

So happy that freezing temps for the I-4 corridor is now completely 100% not happening for next week, my mango tree needs a break after getting some damage last year
This is why is always good to be conservative with models past their 4-5 day range, by no means the Euro is that good past 5 days.

[SFLcane]

0Z GFS now calling for a high of 67 and a low of 49 in Tampa for Monday. At this rate it will end up being 80.

Yep 06z gfs has a few nights in the 40’s at its worst nothing we have not seen before in SFL.

[psyclone]

The forecast for Monday has moderated to mid to upper 40's for lows here...very similar to what we're experiencing now (which is plenty cool enough for me). I have been working overtime to delay and ultimately deny severe cold into Florida. Feeling a cautious sense of optimism at this point..

[boca]

I’m going to New York late next week so that will be my cold weather. Until the NAO goes negative the models might go crazy but I know better that they will adjust back to reality.

[psyclone]

Look at the extremely below normal anoms (nearl maxed out) that drop into the great lakes on the latest 8-14 day outlook. This could be the start of the arctic motherlode. Tense times ahead...

[northjaxpro]

Look at the extremely below normal anoms (nearl maxed out) that drop into the great lakes on the latest 8-14 day outlook. This could be the start of the arctic motherlode. Tense times ahead...

Yeah, Psyclone I saw this late this morning. It appears the PV is about the get established, as forecast, near Hudson Bay by the end of that 14 -day outlook.

So, I am very confident that some potentially serious cold will be overtaking the entire Eastern and Central CONUS by the end of this month.

Old Man Winter is coming..... This is no exaggeration. This is my educated analysis, based on all indications from the model ensembles and the teleconnections are all aligning almost ideally for some big time cold that potentially we have not seen in many years....