Florida Weather

[chaser1]

Pattern seems to reflect a more Pacific zonal flow during the short term. The frontal passage that the GFS continues to flip flop with around the 3rd just doesn't appear to have significant upper level support to bring more then a cool down to north and central Fla. Depending on the strength of the high over the Bahamas during this period, South Florida (and potentially Central Florida) may see little more then a quick wind shift to the N.E. It's the front around the 7th/8th that remains a big question mark whether we'll see a big cool down here in Florida. There appears to be a significant cold outbreak stemming from Manitoba a few days prior but we'll have to wait and see if mid level ridging near us will have broken down.

[psyclone]

Our gang at the CPC has normal to somewhat below normal temps out 8-14 days as of yesterday's print. considering it is now the coldest time of year it stands reason at least some chilly weather is on tap.

[northjaxpro]

The uncertainty at 10 days and beyond is why I did not mention in my post the previous page with regards to the potential of a stronger, arctic blast you referenced psyclone. I need a bit more clarity the next few days from the models about that prospect.

[gatorcane]

Winds shift NNE pretty quickly behind next front which results in SE Florida (and the east coast for that matter, notice a Melbourne as warm as Miami) as noticeably warmer than rest of state:

[TheStormExpert]

Winds shift NNE pretty quickly behind next front which results in SE Florida (and the east coast for that matter, notice a Melbourne as warm as Miami) as noticeably warmer than rest of state:

https://i.postimg.cc/7Y5v6sQS/gfs-T2m-seus-33.png

It’s at day Day 10 but the Euro may be jumping on board with the colder solution that the GFS briefly had a day or so ago as of its 12z run.

We shall see, but the NAO will be going negative within the next week.

[gatorcane]

One thing not being discussed is how windy it is down across SE Florida, gusts are quite strong here and nearing tropical storm force gusts (mid 30mph range)

[chaser1]

One thing not being discussed is how windy it is down across SE Florida, gusts are quite strong here and nearing tropical storm force gusts (mid 30mph range)

It's pretty breezy up here in Central Fla. as well. Perhaps not quite as strong as what S. Florida is getting but refreshingly breezy nonetheless. I'd be enjoying it that much more had I thought it was a tightening gradient just ahead of another strong frontal passage.... (not).

[FlaWeatherDude]

Winds shift NNE pretty quickly behind next front which results in SE Florida (and the east coast for that matter, notice a Melbourne as warm as Miami) as noticeably warmer than rest of state:

https://i.postimg.cc/7Y5v6sQS/gfs-T2m-seus-33.png

Around mid-month is when the fun cresendo begins I believe. Many on 33andrain are betting on it.

[NDG]

Here in Orlando despite a fairly cool mid month with 11-12 night time lows below 50 degrees, December will end up slightly above average due to the 80+ degree highs through the 31st.
I still stand with my thoughts that any significant cooling for the FL Peninsula will not happen until the MJO goes into phase 8 closer to mid January.

[northjaxpro]

It looks like you will be pretty close on the mark about that NDG.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I would say keep an eye through the New Year for trends of colder temps starting next weekend. Could start trending colder.

[psyclone]

My current NWS forecast shows temps retreating to marginally below normal by Friday so a cooldown is coming into view.

[boca]

I would say keep an eye through the New Year for trends of colder temps starting next weekend. Could start trending colder.

I would be nice to get a cold front that doesn’t go away after 24 hours.

[SFLcane]

Nothing on the GFS but summertime through Jan 15th for FL.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s funny how it goes from feeling pleasant to feeling sticky and muggy overnight. Florida never ceases to amaze, I guess that’s why they call us “Endless Summer”.

[psyclone]

It is rather muggy out. we've had trouble finding that sweet spot of close to normal this winter so far. hopefully we'll get to cash in on some of that the next couple months or so

[SFLcane]

Hmmmm...

[CDO62]

I hope this changes. We've been pretty lucky avoiding any freezes so far this year in central Florida. I know Bastardi has been predicting the cold to come in a big way for the East/SE Coast in mid-January. Us fans of the warmer weather will certainly be enjoying the next few days.

[northjaxpro]

There have been past instances in which we have experienced unseasonable warm periods that generally occurs before an onslaught of a major arctic outbreak. The arctic outbreaks of 1985 and 1989 are two examples of this.

The MJO and the sudden stratospheric warming event has been talked about for the past couple of weeks, and the target time appears to be around mid-January for -AO, -NAO teleconnections potential by that time.

Enjoy this warm period right now while we have it. Old Man Winter will be back howling soon over the Eastern CONUS and down into Southeast U.S. if the teleconnections align correct.

[FlaWeatherDude]

There have been past instances in which we have experienced unseasonable warm periods that generally occurs before an onslaught of a major arctic outbreak. The arctic outbreaks of 1985 and 1989 are two examples of this.

The MJO and the sudden stratospheric warming event has been talked about for the past couple of weeks, and the target time appears to be around mid-January for -AO, -NAO teleconnections potential by that time.

Enjoy this warm period right now while we have it. Old Man Winter will be back howling soon over the Eastern CONUS and down into Southeast U.S. if the teleconnections align correct.

Let's hope this SSW(PV-split) downwells to the surface and aims toward Florida!