Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

One of the mesoscale models did pretty well (can't remember which one), saw a tweet about it yesterday morning on Twitter.

Either way even down into South-Central FL there were shelf clouds, very ominous! What surprises me is this occurring in November, things should get interesting come the later part of Winter.

[gatorcane]

Wow today’s Euro looks frigid for Florida, the 850mb freezing line is pushing south when the run ends. This would be impressive for the peak of winter let alone November.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow today’s Euro looks frigid for Florida, the 850mb freezing line is pushing south when the run ends. This would be impressive for the peak of winter let alone November.

https://i.postimg.cc/rmgtc42B/ecmwf-T850-seus-11.png

Luckily the Euro has not been that good this year. The GFS isn’t even close to Euro.

[Patrick99]

Saturday night we had periods of very heavy rain as that warm front propagated northward......some pretty good lightning at times, too.

[Patrick99]

:uarrow: I have discussed this, along with several others through the past several years on here, on how super lucky the Florida peninsula has been in avoiding the simultaneous trifecta of the -AO, -NAO and +PNA teleconnection. We have not had them all going at the same time in the meteorological winter since the 2009-10 season for the peninsula.

Our number will come up eventually and at some point we are going to pay back Mother Nature for this. So, count our blessings regarding this for sure.

The -AO I believe is not as important to bringing down the cool/cold air as the -NAO and +PNA is but it sure helps having all three align up if you want to see record breaking cold snaps.

Unfortunately that time will come again where we see a widespread statewide freeze a lot like in 2010, and when it does it may not be a one time occurrence. We've already seen two majors (one of which was POTENTIALLY a Cat.5) make landfall in FL after a nearly 12 year major hurricane hit drought, so everything comes in bunches it seems.

Somehow, I get the feeling that the kind of cold we had in December 2010 is more common than January 2010........that January was pretty weird. Polar air combined with enough moisture to get precipitation going.....that's strange for peninsular Florida. Whenever we do get that -NAO/+PNA/-AO trifecta it almost always seems to result in your typical ultra-dry Arctic cold shot with no clouds in the sky for days and screaming winds out of the northwest. What happened that January?

[northjaxpro]

The arctic outbreaks of December 1983 and January 1985 are the best examples of what you are referring to about extreme dry cold to impact the peninsula.

However, the 2009-10 winter also featured a moderate to strong El Nino , in addition to the teleconnections discussed that year, gave us a very active southern/sub-ttopical jet across the peninsula and therefore, we had that rare wintry precipitation event across the peninsula that season.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes January 2010 was different than December 2010 thanks to a moderate-strong El Niño as opposes to a moderate-strong La Niña like we had in December 2010. This allowed the Subtropical jet to be enhanced which greatly increased Florida’s chances of seeing some reported snow. The winter of 2010-2011 was I believe one of the driest winters on record if I’m not mistaken thanks to that La Niña which also produced the active in numbers 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[gatorcane]

GFS trending towards the Euro. Wow pretty cold for this time of year but still long-range:

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

GFS going colder:

[SFLcane]

Gfs has now joined the euro with 40’s and 50’s across most of the Florida peninsula next week. Bring it on

[NDG]

I don't believe the models past 5 days with their forecast, teleconnections don't support lows in the upper 30s all the way down to the I-4 corridor like the Euro & GFS show.

[gatorcane]

The FV3 GFS is much colder now joining the Euro and old GFS:

[Patrick99]

At least for now, summer is back with a vengeance. Ever since that warm front came through Saturday night it has been pretty stuffy outside.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't want to sound like a damper on this cool down next week and I hope the models don't back off. I just don't see it in the teleconnections. Seems like the AO/NAO is gonna stay positive during that time but it could change.

[boca]

It’s almost an act of God to get everything to line up for us to get a cool down here in South Florida.The NAO has been positive for so long now it seems like the norm and if it goes negative, it doesn’t do it for more than a few days or go deeply negative. Since July the NAO only dipped negative once in late October for a few days and went back to positive.

[NDG]

Models are starting to coming to their senses, showing the core of the cold air to stay west and north of the Peninsula which makes sense with current & forecasted teleconnections. They also delay the arrival of the cold air.

[SFLcane]

Models are starting to coming to their senses, showing the core of the cold air to stay west and north of the Peninsula which makes sense with current & forecasted teleconnections. They also delay the arrival of the cold air.

Bulk of the cold air has never been progged by the models to head down into Florida especially with that positive NAO. it is gonna get cool its a good bet so bring it on.

[SFLcane]

[NDG]

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/11/07/gem_T2m_seus_31.png

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/11/07/gfs_T2m_seus_34.png

GEM and its cold biased forecast, it busted so many times last year, why bother with it.