Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Tornado watch now valid until midnight for regions below i-10 and above state route 50. spring is in the air tonight.

[MetroMike]

New Tornado watch issued for areas in central Florida including Tampa bay. The NFL has got to be sleepless now.
In effect till 7 am Sunday.
Last thing we need is damaging storms affecting the stadium area.

[chaser1]

New Tornado watch issued for areas in central Florida including Tampa bay. The NFL has got to be sleepless now.
In effect till 7 am Sunday.

Yup, pretty large chunk of Central Fla. under this watch. Here in the Orlando region we're expecting most of our weather to prob. move through between 2:00 a.m. - 6:00 a.m. I generally shrug at our severe weather or tornado watches because they rarely materialize to the level of "potential" as advertised to so many people - over such a broad breadth of area. Nonetheless, i'll have my phone's alert notifications on plenty loud. I don't want to miss any brief shower and accompanied 25 mph wind gusts.

Sadly, there may well be those few unlucky folk alarmingly woke by some level of severe conditions that actually materialize.

[psyclone]

The verbiage with the watch says a "couple intense tornadoes possible". Ef-2+ is listed as "moderate" on the probability table...the same as the lower end counterpart. This is a notch above our standard low end risk watch. Interesting weather night and timing for sure.. enjoying some lightning and distant thunder tonight

[NDG]

The Good 'ole GFS, lol.
I have lost count how many times it has forecasted a hard freeze for the I-4 corridor this winter.

[Patrick99]

Lol that is quite a retreat, GFS.

[psyclone]

These models are a mess wrt to cold. Unless the cold is within 72 hours and the front can be seen on the move...treat them as entertainment. Just like the fortune teller at the fair. The GFS hates Florida and is either pimping massive hurricanes or freezes. fortunately they rarely pan out. In other news...what a light show and 5 am wake up call for Super bowl sunday. It's been awhile since I've seen lightning like that. Sunny, cool, dry and wonderful now...

[psyclone]

BTW just to illustrate the degree to which models have been struggling...the GFS run referenced on page 830 with a freeze into central florida was for tonight. And this one was to be taken super duper serial because it wasn't fantasy range and there was agreement between the Euro and the GFS. Meanwhile...not only is that going to be off by a solid 20 degrees...this entire week is going to run solidly above average...which was a virtual lock not to happen a week ago. That is just....let's be diplomatic here...not good. Having said that...the flip side is that cold air could easily misfire in the opposite direction and come farther south next week than what is currently expected. It's like we're flying blind beyond a few days...and we are...until this airmass modifies. The only long range I'd bet on at this point is the calendar. Days are getting longer, average temps are rising and trees are dumping pollen. When models depict anomalous events in the long range...generally we get to watch and see how the event finds a way to fail. Tampa now needs a low temp 20 degrees below normal to freeze. And that bar is getting higher. Enjoy the sun and warmth this week.

[Patrick99]

I never considered myself much of a model-watcher, but I have to say, I've been watching the GFS all winter and it has been entertaining. It is very interesting to see what ends up verifying and what doesn't. I think it has a harder time with us in the winter, than, say, middle Tennessee, because we are a strip of land jutting out into a warm tropical ocean....it doesn't take much for that ocean to blunt the cold.

[Shell Mound]

The verbiage with the watch says a "couple intense tornadoes possible". Ef-2+ is listed as "moderate" on the probability table...the same as the lower end counterpart. This is a notch above our standard low end risk watch.

That didn’t verify so well, given that not a single tornado was reported. One would have expected at least one or two tornadoes of weak intensity.

Edit: I looked at the archived probabilities and in fact the outlook verified rather well, given that the hail and wind occurred as expected and the probability of two or more tornadoes was <50%.

[psyclone]

The verbiage with the watch says a "couple intense tornadoes possible". Ef-2+ is listed as "moderate" on the probability table...the same as the lower end counterpart. This is a notch above our standard low end risk watch.

That didn’t verify so well, given that not a single tornado was reported. One would have expected at least one or two tornadoes of weak intensity.

Edit: I looked at the archived probabilities and in fact the outlook verified rather well, given that the hail and wind occurred as expected and the probability of two or more tornadoes was <50%.

It sure did not. Cold season svr is tough sledding from a forecast standpoint. IIRC they had a marginal risk during the December supercell and tornado. they probably feared a repeat of that. we did have great convection and phenomenal thunderstorm here with a tremendous lightshow...a true 5am wake up call here.

[NDG]

Winter is over for the FL peninsula, meteorological spring is starting early for us.

[psyclone]

Winter is indeed history for us. Amazing how cool a more normal temp regime felt this year after multiple consecutive torch winters. Here's to hoping we can tag some nice normal type temps before AC season kicks in for good.

[Patrick99]

If you believe GFS (and I'm not sure I do), it looks like we squeeze out a couple more significant cold shots. Feb 20-21, and Feb 26-.

[HURRICANELONNY]

No I don't believe the GFS that far out. Can't remember the AO being so negative. Guess that's why all hell freezing over in midwest. Maybe will get a little piece of that. Like a night 50s. This weekend front gonna stall and probably rain with no cool air. Maybe next front.

[psyclone]

It's only mid February so we're certainly going to have some more cool downs. Here's to hoping for some nice 70's for highs and 50's for lows...or at least low 60's. that good stuff where you need no climate control. in the near term we have some decent QPF potential...especially over north florida as the battle lines are drawn between the warmth here and the arctic cold off to the northwest.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Due to convid models have been struggling greatly. They greatly underestimated the Pacific Jet Retraction and this is the result! However, an Equatorward Pacific Jet Extension is forecasted starting early nextweek which should bring the Polar Vortex east. Eventually this'll lead to a +PNA/-EPO combo to combine with a -AO/NAO. Just like models had underestimated the Jet Retraction and has now adjusted the cold west. So also models are underestimating the Jet Extension and will trend cold(perhaps greatly) late next week and beyond!

[psyclone]

Texas is about to take a massive hit from the cold. I am grateful this did not come this way. What a catastrophic hit it would be for us. The cold is way too close to rest easy until it's gone so I am watching with interest

[psyclone]

The southeast ridge has saved us again

[HURRICANELONNY]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... x/ao.shtml
AO @-5. Don't know if that a record but that is probably why hell freezing over in Texas. NAO flat line so I think were protected. Probably get a cool down next week because I'm above normal and need to get normal. Too warm too early for me.