Florida Weather

[psyclone]

We're going to moderate into a stretch of incredible December weather with the rebound starting tomorrow. Looking forward to sun and warmer temps.

[gatorcane]

Spot checking temps across Florida seems some areas are colder already than NWS forecasted lows or very close:

55F at Pompano Beach Airpark at 9:00 with a forecast low of 54F

50F at Clearwater Airpark at 9:00 but the forecast low is 54F.

53F at Tampa International Airport at 9:00 with a forecast low of 52F.

[NDG]

cloud cover is moving in across the peninsula tonight as well as winds staying up more out of the GOM at H85 so not much further cooling down than current temps should happen.

[boca]

We had mostly a negative NAO for a good part of spring and most of the summer and as fall progresses we are back to a positive NAO. Why is that very strange and I expect as long as it’s in positive territory we will not get many cold fronts down here in the peninsula because the SE ridge will reappear until we go back into negative territory again. Can NDG, or Northjaxpro give some feedback with the NAO always being positive this time of year.

[NDG]

We had mostly a negative NAO for a good part of spring and most of the summer and as fall progresses we are back to a positive NAO. Why is that very strange and I expect as long as it’s in positive territory we will not get many cold fronts down here in the peninsula because the SE ridge will reappear until we go back into negative territory again. Can NDG, or Northjaxpro give some feedback with the NAO always being positive this time of year.

This winter could be different, NAO going positive could be just temporarily before going back to big time negative later in December & January, if Nov analogs are a repeat again. Could be a very cold Jan & Feb for us, time will tell.

 https://twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1201933850055720960

[northjaxpro]

Great graphic you posted NDG from the World Climate Service.

Yeah, as the graphic noted, the November pattern, which indeed brought us a below normal November for temperatures for much of the Eastern CONUS, including here in Northeast Florida,could be a harbinger of things of what could come later this Winter, but we just won't surely know of course until we finally will see a winter time - NAO index for North America. It has been nearly a decade since the last great winter - NAO seen here in these parts (2009-10). This alone continues to be one of the most amazing current weather anomaly streaks I have ever seen in all my years in this profession, which you all know I have discussed at length over the years on here in this forum. This has to end at some point, you would think, right? Florida's 11-year streak of not having a hurricane strike was the other incredible streak we had going for us, until that finally and unfortunately ended with Hermine in 2016.

We will see if this no meteorological winter negative NAO streak will come to an end in January or February 2020.

[northjaxpro]

We're going to moderate into a stretch of incredible December weather with the rebound starting tomorrow. Looking forward to sun and warmer temps.

We will see a rebound to a bit warmer temps for the Florida peninsula and the Eastern U.S. seaboard for about the next week or so as a + NAO will be prevalent up through Dec.17.

However, GEFS teleconnections forecasts indicates a strong + PNA to take effect within the next week by December 10-11 and stay in place through December 18.

A strong + PNA could bring colder temps within the next 10 days to the Eastern CONUS and to North Florida with potential of freezes. The long range guidance is beginning to hint at this by mid-month as well, but I will feel even more confident about this once we get inside of 7 days....

[gatorcane]

We had mostly a negative NAO for a good part of spring and most of the summer and as fall progresses we are back to a positive NAO. Why is that very strange and I expect as long as it’s in positive territory we will not get many cold fronts down here in the peninsula because the SE ridge will reappear until we go back into negative territory again. Can NDG, or Northjaxpro give some feedback with the NAO always being positive this time of year.

This winter could be different, NAO going positive could be just temporarily before going back to big time negative later in December & January, if Nov analogs are a repeat again. Could be a very cold Jan & Feb for us, time will tell.

https://twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1201933850055720960?s=21

Interesting. I have had the feeling this year will be the year a deep freeze will occur across much of Florida, something not seen in almost a decade. We shall see.

[TheStormExpert]

We had mostly a negative NAO for a good part of spring and most of the summer and as fall progresses we are back to a positive NAO. Why is that very strange and I expect as long as it’s in positive territory we will not get many cold fronts down here in the peninsula because the SE ridge will reappear until we go back into negative territory again. Can NDG, or Northjaxpro give some feedback with the NAO always being positive this time of year.

This winter could be different, NAO going positive could be just temporarily before going back to big time negative later in December & January, if Nov analogs are a repeat again. Could be a very cold Jan & Feb for us, time will tell.

https://twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1201933850055720960?s=21

Interesting. I have had the feeling this year will be the year a deep freeze will occur across much of Florida, something not seen in almost a decade. We shall see.

Hope you guys are wrong! I can handle the colder weather like we just had but any colder is too cold for me. Besides wouldn't we need a +PNA and -AO as well which is hard to get along with a -NAO.

[northjaxpro]

This winter could be different, NAO going positive could be just temporarily before going back to big time negative later in December & January, if Nov analogs are a repeat again. Could be a very cold Jan & Feb for us, time will tell.

[url]https://twitter.com/worldcli
matesvc/status/1201933850055720960?s=21[/url]

Interesting. I have had the feeling this year will be the year a deep freeze will occur across much of Florida, something not seen in almost a decade. We shall see.

Hope you guys are wrong! I can handle the colder weather like we just had but any colder is too cold for me. Besides wouldn't we need a +PNA and -AO as well which is hard to get along with a -NAO.

Yes. A + PNA will occur beginning Dec 11 and last to 12/18, while a - AO is forecast at mid month also. This will definitely help to offset the influence of the + NAO by the middle of the month.

The models picking up on a pretty good looking cold spell evading the Eastern ÇONUS for Dec 11-17. This will obviously.get more fine tuned as we get within 5-7 days of the cold spell event next week.

[TheStormExpert]

The latest Euro run says not so fast on next weeks cold front in the Eastern U.S. The SE Ridge looks to return in time to prevent much deepening of the trough come the early to middle part of next week.

[northjaxpro]

The latest Euro run says not so fast on next weeks cold front in the Eastern U.S. The SE Ridge looks to return in time to prevent much deepening of the trough come the early to middle part of next week.

This time of the year, I am riding with the GEFS and its teleconnections forecast and I am banking on the + PNA, -AO alignment will help to mitigate and offset the + NAO by mid-month. This set-up should bring down a significant upper level trough to bring down cold to the Eastern CONUS by mid-month, similar to what we just had a couple of days ago.

South Florida may not get impacted deeply by it due mainly to the + NAO, which would help shunt off the cold from diving down deeply into the peninsula to impact them next week.

[psyclone]

We're going to cool down again but at this point it looks like another graze of seasonably chilly air. We'll see what the rest of the winter holds. we're certainly due for some legit cold. At some point it will happen. I distinctly recall a stretch of excessive heat in October 2009...and that winter was not kind to us..so stay tuned..

[itglobalsecure]

Let's hope for a strong prolonged chill. We are drowning in iguanas down here in West Boca.

[NDG]

Above average to average temps for the next 7-10 days at least. If analog years work out we may have to wait until at least early January for unseasonable cold temps to return to central and southern FL.a

[northjaxpro]

Well for this area of Northeast Florida, we will have near seasonal temps this weekend, as an onshore flow will come blow in to keep us at seasonal norms here. We will see a lows in the md 40s tomorrow morning, and mid 50s for Sunday morning , and max temps in the mid-upper 60s tomorrow and Sunday.

We will see a brief warm-up on Monday-Wednesday as a southwest flow sets in ahead of the next cold front, which will move through here during Thursday. We will warm up to near 80 degrees on both Monday and Tuesday. It looks as if the cold front will become nearly stationary Tuesday evening as a shortwave disturbance looks to develop on it out of the NE GOM on Wednesday. This will bring some rain across the region and serve as a kicker to push the front through the northern peninsula by Thursday evening. We chill back down to seasonal norms on Friday and next Saturday.

At the current time, the models are in reasonable agreement in that it looks like we will not see a freeze potential across North Florida with this next front this upcoming week. This next particular upper trough will not amplify enough southward as tonight's 00Z GFS shows a 1042 mb modified Polar HP shifting east from the Great Plains late Monday to New England by late Wednesday evening. This scenario has the coldest air shunted off well north of the peninsula. The strong polar HP however, will likely create a strong onshore flow to the NE Florida area beginning late Thursday into Friday of next week.

The 12Z GFS was hinting at a stronger upper trough entering the Eastern CONUS Dec.16-19. It will be interesting to see how much this next potential stronger upper trough this period will amplify as it shifts east, as it pertains to if it can potentially bring us another freeze across the North Florida peninsula within the next 10 days. I will be monitoring that closely as we get deeper into next week. This run looks to be a classic potential trough/ridge placement battle Dec.16 -19. We will see how it shakes down. +PNA looks pretty strong, which I think will help to mitigate the +NAO influence for at least the northern peninsula.

[NDG]

PNA ended up barely getting to the positive territory, not as strong as the GFS ensembles were showing, continuing troughiness across the western Mountain States has kept a lid on it, back to at least neutral by this weekend.
Fall '09, Winter '09/'10 being used as an analog by some Pros for this winter is not going that so far this December.
In December '09 the NAO was starting to go way negative by this time of the month and the PNA was mostly positive during the Nov '09 & Dec '09.
Which means this January may not get as cold for us as it did in January '10 if teleconnections don't change as it did at least in the second half of Dec '09.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the PNA looks to go negative by mid month, a sharp change from forecasts just a week ago, which had the PNA staying postive up until the 18th. PNA forecast to sharply negative it appears right on up to about Christmas. Also, the NAO looks to remain positive to neutral during this same period.

Bottom Line: We likely will not see any big cold spells for now through potentially to New Year's Day. No signs of - NAO , and as NDG pointed out, the PNA is not turning positive, much to my surprise, as intially forecasted. So, if this continues, we will see another mild to warm winter in these parts once again, if the teleconnections don't align favorably to bring cold down to the Deep South and Florida as we head into January and February 2020.

[TheStormExpert]

Not surprised by the NAO remaining mostly positive during the winter months as has been greatly the case since January 2011.

What drives things like the NAO and PNA throughout the year and why has the NAO always favored a positive state during the winter months these past 8-9 years or so?

Also as NDG stated about the NAO going greatly negative during December 2009, I remember that particular month being on the warm side all month before the flip in early January 2010.

[psyclone]

My current NWS forecast shows highs between 70 and 80 over the next week. If we can maintain this through the rest of the winter...I will happily accept.