Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

I didn’t buy it for a second! Not too mention it was only 38° at my home just north of West Palm Beach and that was during the early morning hours. The local news around here is ALWAYS looking for something to hype up.

Regardless it’s been a rather strange weather day! That started with the coldest temperatures across South Florida in a few years along with even colder windchills to rain and reports of graupel.

We can also thank are unusually warm winters as to why are iguana population is skyrocketing! It’s about flipping time a cold arctic blast puts them into shock, they eat anything in sight!

Yeah I agree the year round warmth down there has enabled the iguanas to really populate, especially during the past decade. Yeah, I can imagine it had to have been quite a shock for them to feel temps down there in areas as low as the upper 30s this morning LOL.. They probably had never experienced any temps like they experienced this morning. Now, had temps got down to around freezing, that would have really sent them tumbling down from trees for sure....

[NDG]

Interesting overnight and this morning across the state.

NDG, yeah EURO did analyze the location and intensification of the Low Pressure area well, as did the NAM in the short to medium range, showing a similar analysis and showing the deep NNW wind trajectory to drive this morning's cold all the way deep down into the peninsula. These readings we observed this morning would have been even colder if we would had a snow pack across the Eastern CONUS that we usually would expect to have in January. However, the unusually warm winter up until now took care of that factor.

I was a bit surprised here across Northeast Florida in that basically after midnight, the temperature basically stayed at 31-32 degrees all night long. The temp actually warmed an hour between 4-5 a.m. this morning at my home, and it never dropped below 31 degrees as I left the house awhile ago. NWS Jax busted a bit on the 28F projected minimum temp for my location near them at the Jax International Airport. Jax Cecil Commerce station, always the coldest drainage spot in Jax/Duval County, measured 30 degrees this morning, and it failed to drop below 30F there this morning. The Jax WFO also busted a bit with the Hard Freeze projection for inland Northeast Florida out to Hwy 301 corridor. Gainesville did drop to 31 degrees, Lake City had 30 degrees. However, they projected 27-31 degrees last night and it did not get to the Hard freeze criteria in those areas. I attribute this to low level mixing at the surface for the temps falling short of dropping into the upper 20s across Northeast Florida.

Meanwhile, the NNW flow certainly brought Old Man Winter to the Nature Coast and down into the West Central peninsula as temps dropped well below freezing at Brooksville, with 29 degrees, and Tampa Exec Airport checked in at 32 degrees, along with Plant City, and Lakeland. The freezing line dropped all the way to just about the I-4 corridor. The farthest south I saw the freeze mark was down in Okeechobee, with 32 degrees.

Southeast Florida had a very cold morning for their standards, with readings dropping down into the upper 30s across interior Palm Beach, Dade and Broward, and to the lower 40s to the coast. Very impressive! Sarasota and Fort Myers both had 37 degrees down into the Southwest Florida peninsula, and Naples reported 41F.

So, at least for a 48 hour period, we had Old Man Winter finally flash us a brief appearance after such a warm meteorological winter season to this juncture. We moderate with temperatures beginning Thursday, and then we briefly have return flow on Friday -Saturday, ahead of the next shortwave, which actually will cross South Florida peninsula by late Sunday. Temps looks to cool right at our seasonal averages for next week, with no freezing temps currently seen in the medium to long term across North Florida going into next week.

I think that the winds shifting onshore just above the surface during the night from east central FL to NE FL has a lot to do with the temps not dropping as low forecasted in your area.

[northjaxpro]

Right on point NDG. Yeah, indeed that was a significant factor. Excellent analysis NDG. I went back during yesterday and observed that there were clouds that came briefly ashore around the Northeast Florida coast from Mayport south to Daytona Beach and along the immediate coastline between 3 a.m. -7 a.m. on Tuesday morning, so that definitely correlates to the immediate onshore wind and added moisture in the mid levels that morning. The clouds never made it inland due to the very cold dry surface air. This also explains why the temperature rose more than a degree at my home station between 3 a.m.- 5 a.m. Tuesday morning, which I mentioned that morning on my post when checking my weather station temp obs. The clouds never made it inland as dew points away from the coast and Saint Johns River at that time were running from the upper teens to the lower 20s. However, temps stayed steady all night long, never dropping below 31 degrees. I think moisture with that immediate onshore shift did infiltrate the mid levels just above the very cold and dry surface airmass, and indeed served as a contributing factor that kept temperatures from falling into the upper 20s across my region , as was initially forecasted by NWS JAX WFO.

[Patrick99]

Sadly, though I was watching that little meso low yesterday and found it interesting, no graupel made it to Miami. In fact we didn't have a cloud in the sky all day.....that band just wasn't able to move south of Palm Beach, it seems.

This morning, 60 degrees and intermittent misty rain. What's the cause of this oddball weather.......cooler than normal air pushed out over warmer than normal water?

[Patrick99]

Wow, what happened? What a crazy turnaround from 24 hours. Did a warm front come through or something? All of the chill is gone, it's humid, and it's legit flat out raining.....no graupel, hail or whatever, just rain.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: OK Gatorcane, thanks for posting the final clarification from the NWS Miami WFO, although we figured it out pretty much before hand it was likely graupel falling.

Quite a lively day down in South Florida with cold temps, with graupel falling and iguanas possibly falling from trees LOL... that is quite a day down there... in South Florida LOL....

Lol... some wild weather indeed. Now back to intermittent clouds, rain and humidity, the usual!

But I will take this weather over the cold any day.

Noticed a lot more cloud cover this winter whenever winds are out of the east especially with strong east winds. Been a fairly windy winter.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: OK Gatorcane, thanks for posting the final clarification from the NWS Miami WFO, although we figured it out pretty much before hand it was likely graupel falling.

Quite a lively day down in South Florida with cold temps, with graupel falling and iguanas possibly falling from trees LOL... that is quite a day down there... in South Florida LOL....

Lol... some wild weather indeed. Now back to intermittent clouds, rain and humidity, the usual!

But I will take this weather over the cold any day.

Noticed a lot more cloud cover this winter whenever winds are out of the east especially with strong east winds. Been a fairly windy winter.

Likely due to the warmer than average Gulf Stream waters this winter.

[psyclone]

The roller coaster that is winter is about to be interrupted by a protracted stretch of weather that ends up pretty close to seasonal normals. It's going to be boring from a weather nerd perspective but nice from an everyday perspective. I'll take it. That shot of cold reminded me that I don't like cold...but I'm also content to not be staring down another torch.

[NDG]

:uarrow: OK Gatorcane, thanks for posting the final clarification from the NWS Miami WFO, although we figured it out pretty much before hand it was likely graupel falling.

Quite a lively day down in South Florida with cold temps, with graupel falling and iguanas possibly falling from trees LOL... that is quite a day down there... in South Florida LOL....

Lol... some wild weather indeed. Now back to intermittent clouds, rain and humidity, the usual!

But I will take this weather over the cold any day.

Noticed a lot more cloud cover this winter whenever winds are out of the east especially with strong east winds. Been a fairly windy winter.

Likely due to the warmer than average Gulf Stream waters this winter.

Indeed, whenever a cold high pressure has gone offshore the cooler clockwise winds coming from the NE pick up a lot moisture from the warmer than average SSTs to the east of the Peninsula.

[chaser1]

Most recent long range GFS is trending for potentially much colder for the E. CONUS and the entire spine of our peninsula for the fantasy range between Feb. 6-9. Will have to see how this ebb's and flow's and the entire picture could well change between now and then. The potential exhibits the potential for some N.E. Fla. wrap-around frozen precip. as well as potential for some nasty WX in the form of a serious squall line. Keep in mind, February can bring us some interesting low latitude Gulf Low systems that ultimately cross over our state.

[StormingB81]

Looks like Florida is going to escape any real cold again.

[northjaxpro]

Normally, I am not one for looking out 276 hours, but the GFS 500 mb Upper Pattern is hinting at the development of the Greenland Block. Big ridge setting up nice over Greenland on the 276 hour image. This would open up the pipeline from Siberia to potentially bring a deep mother load of arctic air deep into North America and the Eastern CONUS, if this sets up the period February 6- 8.

We will see if the Greenland Block will set up by Feb 8.

[psyclone]

If winter is going to attack it better get moving. At our latitude time is running short. February is our last legit month and it tends to be front loaded. The scales are most definitely tilting right now and while there's still time the fat lady is very likely in the building

[gatorcane]

The GFS is certainly looking interesting and suggests Florida may not escape unscathed but indeed time is ticking. Looking at history Feb 13-14 is the latest I see for any of the big damaging freezes for Florida agriculture but that was 1899. That said, February can deliver when you look back at Florida’s major freeze timeline. Fat lady not quite singing yet.

Timeline:
http://flcitrusmutual.com/render.aspx?p ... eline.aspx

[psyclone]

It's nice to have a stretch of cool firepit nights. it's what we should get in a typical florida winter

[Patrick99]

That GFS map posted above looks like a PNA+/NAO- setup. Yet when I look at the forecast for both they both look fairly neutral for now?

[northjaxpro]

This is about as perfect as it can get in terms of maximizing radiational cooling conditions across Northeast Florida this morning. Clear skies and calm conditions are found all across the region this morning. It definitely got colder than the guidance projected initially as temperatures have fallen into the mid-upper 30s across interior areas early this morning. We also have some frost in my yard this morning upon some early observation after checking conditions a few minutes ago outside. It is currently 36.3 degrees here at my home station. Jacksonville Cecil Commerce, always the coldest drainage locale here in Duval County, is reporting 32 degrees this hour. It is also the coldest reading I can find across the entire state as well this hour, as clouds have moved in across the panhandle, which have brought temps up out there.

Speaking of those clouds out in the panhandle currently, that is the leading edge of our next weather maker coming down the pike as another fast moving shortwave moving east along the active Southern Jet Stream, impacts the peninsula beginning later today. Clouds will increase rapidly from west to east across the region yoday, and rain will develop and spread across North Florida later today, and especially into this evening. The dynamics appear much too stable for any strong storms to develop and the shortwave is a fast mover as well. Light to moderate rainfall is generally anticipated with this system as it moves through the region during the next 24-36 hours.

The next shortwave Gulf Coast disturbance will develop rapidly on the heels of this current disturbance beginning late Thursday. Rain will overspread the peninsula from Friday up until midday Sunday, as the models are showing currently. However, this could change. It could be a bit faster to move through this particular shortwave, so we will have a better indication about this with future runs.

So a bit of a damp period coming up, with temperatures running right about around average, about where they should be for late January. I have no complaints about that aspect for sure.

Long range, the jury is still out about if we get a significant cold shot the period of Feb 6-9. Hopefully, in the next 2-3 days, the models will give us better clarity about this with future model runs.

Have a great day everyone!!

[northjaxpro]

Well, the verdict is in as far as I am concerned regarding the Feb. 6-9 period.

Earlier, 276 hours out, the GFS was hinting at the possibility of "The Greenland Block" taking shape, as I posted that image on this page a couple of days ago. However, looking at this morning's 12Z GFS 500 mb Northern Hemispheric analysis and last night's 00z EURO 500 mb analysis, the ridge that looked liked was setting up over Greenland is showing to be too transient, and even more prominently, we have a split flow pattern across North America, with the Southern Jet Stream really being very dominant into the long term. The Northern Polar Jet Stream dips down across the Great Lakes and as far south as the Mid- Atlantic region through the extended. However, it is the Southern Jet, which looks to remain dominant into at least the next 10 days , possibly even longer. There will likely be a series of shortwave disturbances traversing through the Southern Jet, similar to what we are seeing right now. Also, the teleconnections support an active Southern Stream Jet as a strong - PNA signal is now being forecast to transpire over at least the next ten days. Also, the NAO, which looked as if it was trying to go negative just a few days ago for early February, is now forecast to spike back into the positive phase once again, based on the latest GEFS teleconnections forecast. Thus, the chief reasons why the Greenland Block will not set-up.

So, it looks as if we will continue with these quick, glancing blow type cool spells , with the warm spells in between , with these fast moving Southern Stream systems traversing across the region every 3 days or so for the forseeable future. The Polar Jet looks to be staying relatively at bay across the Great Lakes, OH Valley and Northeast U.S., the coldest anomalies will likely stay locked across those regions, unless we see some phasing of the jet streams down the pike, which that is a possibility, especially a coastal Nor'easter potential over the Mid-Atlantic or New England.

We are about to get into February, and I can hear ole' Psyclone in my mind with the "clock is ticking on whatever left of winter" we can muster up down here. Psyclone is right. Generally, if we don't get any significant cold up to February 15, Spring will be just about on top of us after that point. Here in Jax, the average date each year of the last freeze is February 27. Heck in recent years, that has moved up a couple of weeks more into mid-February with our mild to warm winters over the past decade.

[psyclone]

North jax is right. there's a 95% chance that Winter (in this case we're defining Winter as damaging/destructive freeze potential) is finished. We're 2/3 through and there's no evidence of significant cold in sight which takes us halfway through the remaining third. In my neck of the woods this (assuming it holds) will translate into another freeze free winter which has been the case each year except for 2018 since the 2010 super winter.

[gatorcane]

We are back to the Caribbean ridge and troughiness out west pattern in the medium to long-range. It’s the semi-permanent pattern all winter it seems. Looks like the door is closing indeed for any significant freezes for Florida, at least the ones that go into the history books. Let us hope this same ridge doesn’t create problems come this hurricane season.