Florida Weather

[FlaWeatherDude]

Sometime after next week is when I believe we'll see our next cool down per the MJO(phases 1-3 is cold this time of year).





Til then we torch!

[psyclone]

Let's hope for some late season relative cool. It can certainly happen.

[TheStormExpert]

Let's hope for some late season relative cool. It can certainly happen.

We can only hope, but with the NAO remaining nearly complete positive since December 1st and sprinting quickly into spring chances are slim picking. One of these days the NAO will go significantly negative again during the meteorological winter months, it's just a matter of when?

[gatorcane]

Big pattern change across South Florida the last week. Wall to wall sunshine and light east winds, feels hot in the sun and has the feels summer is around the corner. The winter was mostly windy, cloudy, and above normal as far as temps. I like the new pattern as we actually are seeing the sun instead of the stratocumulus deck constantly coming in off the Atlantic.

[boca]

To add to that I like the sunshine too, but we probably will not get rain for the next two months. The cold fronts will stall at the Florida border and the high pressure will suck the atmosphere dry. I’m anticipating the fire season to be a problem for Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Big pattern change across South Florida the last week. Wall to wall sunshine and light east winds, feels hot in the sun and has the feels summer is around the corner. The winter was mostly windy, cloudy, and above normal as far as temps. I like the new pattern as we actually are seeing the sun instead of the stratocumulus deck constantly coming in off the Atlantic.

Couldn’t agree more Gatorcane! The meteorological winter was warm and gloomy, we’re at the time of year where it’s not cool but also not hot and too soon for the typical summertime afternoon storms. So that means zilch in terms of rain chances for at least the next 10 days.

[TheStormExpert]

To add to that I like the sunshine too, but we probably will not get rain for the next two months. The cold fronts will stall at the Florida border and the high pressure will suck the atmosphere dry. I’m anticipating the fire season to be a problem for Florida.

That’s the only problem now, lawns are starting to slowly get that dried out look due to the rising sun angle and slowly increasing heat.

[Patrick99]

Yeah, this is actually one of my least favorite South Florida weather patterns, when it's hot enough to be mildly uncomfortable walking around, especially in the sun, but not quite humid enough for anything remotely interesting to happen, precipitation-wise. Typical mid-April to early-May weather.

[psyclone]

Different strokes for different folks. Endless days of warm sun, a lack of rain and comfortable humidity levels....If I could have this year around...I would take it even though it is boring for the weather watcher. Boring is nice.. We are getting crunchy so increasing fire danger could eventually be a concern...otherwise

[NotSparta]

Soon, these cumulus fields will be able to become afternoon thunderstorms

[Patrick99]

Actually, we've got 55% humidity at 430PM, and 65 degree dewpoint......not *that* far off. Probably the biggest limiting factor is the east coast sea breeze being too strong, and the west coast sea breeze almost nonexistent.

[psyclone]

The key for convection is a slack gradient allowing for good convergence and super warm shelf waters. we're a long ways from being there but the pot is on the stove. Above normal temps now could=an earlier rainy season start down the road. In the above sat pic...note the stability shadow on the lee of Lake O and Tampa bay in this case represented by a dearth of clouds downwind (northwest) of those water bodies. I love nerdy stuff like that.

[TheStormExpert]

Actually, we've got 55% humidity at 430PM, and 65 degree dewpoint......not *that* far off. Probably the biggest limiting factor is the east coast sea breeze being too strong, and the west coast sea breeze almost nonexistent.

Well you need at least a 70° dew point if not higher for a prolonged period at least to see the rainy season kick off. Also having humidity levels like that is probably not helping, it’ll be here right on schedule likely come mid-May.

[Patrick99]

Is there a time frame for our next halfway decent chance of rain? Models showing anything? Looking at the satellite loops, it looks like there is an impenetrable barrier just north of the FL-GA border, that nothing but low level cotton ball clouds can pass.

[TheStormExpert]

Is there a time frame for our next halfway decent chance of rain? Models showing anything? Looking at the satellite loops, it looks like there is an impenetrable barrier just north of the FL-GA border, that nothing but low level cotton ball clouds can pass.

The SE U.S. Ridge is in full control for as long as I can see! Starting around mid-next week we will begin to see highs in the upper 80’s as opposed to highs only in the low-mid 80’s like now.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSMelbourne/status/1241310267646062592

[northjaxpro]

As extremely disappointed as I was with the extremely warm winter season we just had, the one positive from it was that it was wet. That is a good thing because the 11 inches of rain we received during the meteorological winter here is really helping to offset this extremely dry pattern we have been in here now since about mid- February. I have only meaured just 2/3 ,of an inch total here at my locale in the past month. We really.need rain very soon, or else we are going to be tracking smoke from wildfires across the region. The rainy season typically doesn't get going until about 6 weeks from now, beginning.in earnest in May across the peninsula, when we get the seabreeze fronts to generate thunderstorms!!

Also, already measured the first 90 degree day of the year last weekend. We nearly did that in mid February. I have my own motto, when the mercury reaches at or over 90 degrees, it's summer!! Lord, if my weather instincts are on point a we are in for a very long hot, brutal summer.I am absolutely dreading this prospect!!!

[TheStormExpert]

If we manage to get into cool-Neutral or La Niña this will only likely worsen.

[northjaxpro]

As I mentioned in my earlier post on this page, this week will confirm that we are in summer now!! We will have daily max temps here in Jax all throughout this week at 90 degrees, with forecast temps in the lower to mid 90s by mid to late week!! We are having a mini-heat wave in the latter part of March! God help us! It is too hot for so early on here!

This is going to be one hell of a long, long hot summer!! Gee, 7 months of this
Oh yeah, throw in the fact that we are dry as a bone dry as most areas of the state We are going to be seeing wildfires real soon if this pattern does not change and bring rain soon!!

[Patrick99]

Now, on the (potential) positive, I have been reading that this coronavirus, like all the others, will not be able to spread/transmit as quickly or easily in hot, humid weather. Of course, I am not enough of a scientist to be able to claim 100% true or false either way, but if true, Florida might be able to get a solid jump on at least slowing this thing down, because I think we are solidly in our transitioning-to-summer phase, and we all know what that means.

Some years we get a surprisingly strong cool shot in early April, but I'm not sure this will be one of those years - I think the peninsula is pretty much done with "winter weather" until next fall/winter.