Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn’t look good for cold weather lovers.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1079368324407021569

[boca]

Winter is cancelled wait it never started.

[NDG]

The 591dm mid level Caribbean ridge over FL will get stronger over the next 48 hours, mid to upper 80s for highs for many across the Peninsula, I bet water parks & beaches are going to be packed with tourists.

[psyclone]

While we're going to cool off to more seasonal temps in a few days there is no significant cold in sight and my tendency is not to buy into that until it's imminent. Long range cold is the winter equivalent of early tropical season phantom canes...interesting, intriguing and generally not happening. The first half of January looks...not cold. After that who knows..keep checking in.

[TheStormExpert]

Got up to 86° today on the second to last day of 2018. Wake me up when winter returns!

[boca]

Wishing everyone across the state of Florida a Happy New Year and a bonifide artic cold front to come to Florida hopefully by mid January.

[NDG]

Happy New Year to everyone. 593 dm mid level heights across east central FL this morning
December temps ended up above average across the Peninsula despite a fairly cool pattern during the middle of the month.
Looking ahead over the next couple of weeks no indications yet from the models of the pattern colder, like I said earlier most likely cold wx lovers will have to wait until the MJO gets to Phase 8.

[northjaxpro]

Happy New Year everyone!

Yeah, looking at the models long range, Old Man Winter will be in hibernation for quite some time. There are no very cold airmases headed south into the CONUS for the next 10-14 days at least. We will see how the MJO phase will be by middle of this month.

We continue to be blessed with mild to warm winters across the peninsula since 2009-10. So far only 2 freezes have been measured here for the meteorolgical winter season.

At least we have had a respite from significant rain the past few days . Otherwise, it is spring time weather in January for the time being across the peninsula.

[psyclone]

Last night's weather for outdoor revelers was divine. perfect to be outside. Looks like our front that will usher in more normal temps has been pushed back (at least in central fl) to Friday. No big cold in sight yet...but it is Winter and we should expect a chill of consequence at some point.

[TheStormExpert]

Happy New Year to everyone. 593 dm mid level heights across east central FL this morning
December temps ended up above average across the Peninsula despite a fairly cool pattern during the middle of the month.
Looking ahead over the next couple of weeks no indications yet from the models of the pattern colder, like I said earlier most likely cold wx lovers will have to wait until the MJO gets to Phase 8.

When will that happen (if ever). It seems that the expected pattern change keeps getting pushed further back.

[Patrick99]

Becoming a broken record, but at least for South Florida, the vast majority of our significant Arctic outbreaks where you get the prolonged chill - if they are going to happen at all - happen in January. I don't have any stats, but I bet they are weighted toward the first half of January, too.

We are on the clock, and the forecast through the middle of January is only showing a couple of minor frontal passages. I don't think it's going to happen this year, at least for us.

[TheStormExpert]

Becoming a broken record, but at least for South Florida, the vast majority of our significant Arctic outbreaks where you get the prolonged chill - if they are going to happen at all - happen in January. I don't have any stats, but I bet they are weighted toward the first half of January, too.

We are on the clock, and the forecast through the middle of January is only showing a couple of minor frontal passages. I don't think it's going to happen this year, at least for us.

Yes, from about mid-December to mid-January is prime time for any significant arctic outbreaks to intrude the FL peninsula and bring the risk of freezes down the spine of the state. Like you said I too agree we may likely dodge a bullet concerning any South Florida freezes this winter season unless the patttern flips and fast!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well atleast it will get around norm temps.temps this weekend. As for a polar vortex. Just have to wait and see if models start showing some signs.

[psyclone]

What happened to all that SSW chatter floating around on social media a couple of weeks ago...and how it was going to lead to the wintry promise land? Fast forward to today and exactly jack is in the pipeline for the next 2 weeks per the CPC....which shows us occupying the sweet spot of above normal temps and below normal precip. While there is still time for Winter to show (indeed I'd be shocked if we didn't get a scoop or 2) there is no denying that sand is flowing through the hourglass...a third of the cold season is now in the rear view mirror and we can see our way to halftime.

[psyclone]

we do have stretch of exceptional weather on the docket as temps return to near seasonal norms. It's going to feel a good bit cooler, especially at night compared to the past week or so

[Patrick99]

I feel like we hear the same SSW predictions every single winter. I'm sure it will happen at some point, it's just that for us, is it going to happen in mid-January? Or the middle of March? If it's the latter, that's way too late....I'm guessing it will happen, just out of that special window we have down here for a South Florida winter.

[NDG]

I feel like we hear the same SSW predictions every single winter. I'm sure it will happen at some point, it's just that for us, is it going to happen in mid-January? Or the middle of March? If it's the latter, that's way too late....I'm guessing it will happen, just out of that special window we have down here for a South Florida winter.

I remember very clearly two or three years ago that the polar vortex didn’t split or didn’t in North America’s favor after a SSWE, this could be the case again but still way too early to tell. Long range models are stil forecastin a colder & stormiest pattern for the eastern US for late Jan into Feb but we know how that goes.

[boca]

We are drier and warmer in this part of the state and in a moderate drought this is not a El Niño pattern more like La Niña.

[NDG]

We are drier and warmer in this part of the state and in a moderate drought this is not a El Niño pattern more like La Niña.

Not all El Ninos are the same.
The rest of the Deep South is in El Nino pattern.
There have been other El Ninos in which FL has been fairly wet while TX and the SW US has been fairly dry.

[northjaxpro]

What a difference a year makes uh?

This time exactly one year ago today, I was road tripping up Interstate 95 into Southeast Georgia tracking an amazing winter storm, which occurred across that area north up into Southeast South Carolina.

Today, a totally different weather pattern with warm, spring-like temperatures in place until Saturday. A trough will move east across the Deep South on tomorrow, spreading rain across much of this area. Rain will end late Friday, and at least more seasonable temps will return briefly by Sunday with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s.

Looking long range, which is very risky at this point, given the vast uncertainty with the large scale pattern, well, the safe thing to do is just not forecast beyond 5 days with any confidence.

I will leave for now for those who hug the EURO model, it does show an impressive 1046 mb Arctic High dropping out of Canada into the Eastern CONUS at the end of the next 240 hour run on 00z last night. But, I am sure the new 12Z run coming out shortly will probably drop that solution the way things have been lately! We will see.