Florida Weather

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gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather

#13281 Postby gatorcane » Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:27 am

Eventually some really cold air should make it back down into Florida, we are not even in that window where it usually happens. From end of December through end of Feb is the danger window and it already has been cold albeit short-lived. Also that brutally record cold shot of air that hit the northeast Thanksgiving could be a harbinger of some more cold blasts to come. Just need to see the NAO cooperate to bring it down into Florida. All it takes is one night where the stars align to create serious freeze damage across Florida in areas that haven’t seen one in years. I was in the Tampa area recently and I saw a lot of people pushing the growth zones there. When that freeze does finally come it is not going to be pretty!
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Re: Florida Weather

#13282 Postby psyclone » Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:23 pm

mid 70's dewpoints right now. Under any circumstance that is unusual for early December here but considering the depth of the chill from just a few days ago it is remarkable. I'm still holding onto comfortable and dry air inside and won't be opening the door anymore than needed! This upcoming cool shot looks a bit milder and shorter than the last one. Beyond that it seems like a pretty mild pattern is on deck with no big cold blasts in sight.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13283 Postby psyclone » Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:Eventually some really cold air should make it back down into Florida, we are not even in that window where it usually happens. From end of December through end of Feb is the danger window and it already has been cold albeit short-lived. Also that brutally record cold shot of air that hit the northeast Thanksgiving could be a harbinger of some more cold blasts to come. Just need to see the NAO cooperate to bring it down into Florida. All it takes is one night where the stars align to create serious freeze damage across Florida in areas that haven’t seen one in years. I was in the Tampa area recently and I saw a lot of people pushing the growth zones there. When that freeze does finally come it is not going to be pretty!


It won't be pretty but small tropicals are cheap to buy and grow fast...so if they're killed off people will just replace them. Think of them as multi year seasonal plants. I find it interesting that people often do nothing to protect tropicals when cold does come when minimal effort would have yielded big results. We just haven't had the sort of big freeze return frequency that we used to get in the 70's/80's and 90's. is it a permanent change or extended good luck? I tend to think the latter
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Re: Florida Weather

#13284 Postby gatorcane » Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:03 pm

Looks like the next cold front for Florida comes in early the week of Dec 10th. While not as cold as last week’s blast, it could bring a prolonged period of below to well below normal temps to the state:

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Re: Florida Weather

#13285 Postby NDG » Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:28 pm

:uarrow: But still a fairly progressive pattern, 80s for a few days then below average for a few days, equals about average in the long run.

BTW, either tying or breaking record highs today across all of east central FL today. Daytona Beach breaking its record high by at least two degrees above the previous record.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13286 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the next cold front for Florida comes in early the week of Dec 10th. While not as cold as last week’s blast, it could bring a prolonged period of below to well below normal temps to the state:

https://i.postimg.cc/wMVxdrsN/fv3p-z500a-Norm-us-35.png

I wouldn’t look too much at the FV3-GFS, hasn’t been been too good since it’s release from what I’ve seen.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13287 Postby psyclone » Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:37 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looks like the next cold front for Florida comes in early the week of Dec 10th. While not as cold as last week’s blast, it could bring a prolonged period of below to well below normal temps to the state:

https://i.postimg.cc/wMVxdrsN/fv3p-z500a-Norm-us-35.png

I wouldn’t look too much at the FV3-GFS, hasn’t been been too good since it’s release from what I’ve seen.


New name same garbage. consistently way over cooks cold invasions only to give up as the timeframe reels in. The CPC outlooks show normal conditions over the next couple of weeks. We'll likely yoyo betweend somewhat above and below normal temps that average out to near normal over time...which is exactly what we should expect in December.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13288 Postby NDG » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:13 pm

Record highs across east central & SE FL today, who would had thought we were going to have record highs today when just 4 days ago many across central FL had highs only in the upper 50s.

Daytona Beach 86F R, beat the previous record by 2 degrees.
Orlando 87F RT
Melbourne, 89F R, beat the previous record by 3 degrees.
Vero Beach 89F R, beat the previous record by 3 degrees.
Ft Pierce 88F R, beat the previous record by 1 degree.
Miami 86F RT
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Re: Florida Weather

#13289 Postby psyclone » Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:13 pm

:uarrow: Those high temps are nuts...nearly 90 in early December. Offshore wind FTW. Southerly winds off the now frigid lake of Mexico shelf waters kept temps in check here...but low to mid 70's dewpoints kept things feeling decidedly...non December...
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Re: Florida Weather

#13290 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:02 am

It was a very active day just north of my area. as tornadoes and severe weather were reported all across extreme Southeast Georgia yesterday.


I hope we do not see severe weather today but we are anticipating more thunderstorms across Northeast Florida later today into early tonight. A cold front passes through early this evening..

Temps will cool back down to near or slightly below average Wednesday and Thursday. Freezing temps are not expected here across North Florida later this week. Temps may drop into the mid-upper 30s colder interior areas by Thursday morning.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13291 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:04 pm

Just had another round of severe thunderstorms roll through the Jax area, which prompted warnings from the NWS Jax WFO. Some areas received upwards to 1-2 inches of rainfall. There will be more thunderstorms developing this afternoon moving out of the GOM along the stationary frontal boundary right across extreme Northern Florida. Some of the storms may reach severe criteria, which we have seen quite a bit of already earlier today and yesterday.

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Re: Florida Weather

#13292 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:23 pm

It's downright uncomfortable out in South Florida right now, 87 degrees in Miami with 62% humidity. Light southwesterly breeze not helping at all. Can we conceivably hit 90 in a couple hours?

Our many visitors for Miami Art Week must be in shock that it's not only warm, it's summertime-warm.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13293 Postby psyclone » Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:20 pm

76 degree dewpoint right now is as high as I can recall in December. Cooler and drier air not far away as our roller coaster continues...
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Re: Florida Weather

#13294 Postby SFLcane » Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:49 pm

Patrick99 wrote:It's downright uncomfortable out in South Florida right now, 87 degrees in Miami with 62% humidity. Light southwesterly breeze not helping at all. Can we conceivably hit 90 in a couple hours?

Our many visitors for Miami Art Week must be in shock that it's not only warm, it's summertime-warm.


Not sure why the confusion temperatures always climb to records here in SFL just ahead of a cold front so there is a reason for todays heat. :roll:
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Re: Florida Weather

#13295 Postby psyclone » Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:16 pm

I'm becoming intrigued by the vigorous low expected to track along the Gulf coast this weekend. Could be a SVR WX issue for central and north florida should that pan out with another shot of decent QPF over already water logged north florida.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13296 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:24 pm

:uarrow: I agree with you psyclone. The dynamcs could indeed be in place for potential severe weather ahead of the next developing Low Pressure system forecast to cross North Florida during this upcoming weekend.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13297 Postby NDG » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:55 am

psyclone wrote:I'm becoming intrigued by the vigorous low expected to track along the Gulf coast this weekend. Could be a SVR WX issue for central and north florida should that pan out with another shot of decent QPF over already water logged north florida.


The SPC is not too impressed with surface instability with the storm so they are currently not forecasting any severe wx but there's a good chance of heavy rainfall along the I-10 corridor.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13298 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:35 pm

:uarrow: Yeah, unless the surface Low can track a bit farther north than expected this weekend, we would not have an opportunity across North Florida to get into a more unstable environment in the warm sector of the Low Pressure area. This would keep severe wx chances down considerably NDG. A track that hugs the Gulf Coast and rides across North Florida would likely just give us a good soaking rainfall this weekend.

It still bears monitoring of course because a shift of the Low track 100 miles north of what the current model runs are indicating could change things considerably.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13299 Postby gatorcane » Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:48 pm

The EC now looks cold like the FV3 GFS has been insisting for the next cold snap for Florida in a week from now:

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Re: Florida Weather

#13300 Postby NDG » Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:58 am

This weekend into early next week we will see a typical El Ninosh wx pattern, a storm will track across the southern US followed by below average heights for the SE US with below average Temps across the SE US while the upper plains will see well above average temps.
Very cool daytime highs for us in FL Monday and Tuesday due to the very low UL heights from the storm.

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