Florida Weather

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NDG
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Re: Florida Weather

#11841 Postby NDG » Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:22 am

chaser1 wrote::uarrow: I stand corrected LOL.......... If the new 0Z EURO is right, then those of you who were yearning for a serious cold front, might just get one a couple days past Thanksgiving

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0


Even with the Euro I would take its 7-10 day range forecast with a grain of salt, but I am sure the Peninsula could get a potent shot of colder air sometime in the 7-14 day range if the AO & NAO do indeed go negative but the PNA seems to want to stay negative making any cold air masses be fairly progressive across the eastern US.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11842 Postby SFLcane » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:46 am

Um yea...

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Re: Florida Weather

#11843 Postby SFLcane » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:49 am

Canadian and ECM have it to..

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Re: Florida Weather

#11844 Postby psyclone » Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:05 pm

unsettled weather has been introduced into the nws grids as a result of that (non tropical) low as we near thanksgiving.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11845 Postby chaser1 » Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:21 am

Florida weather is gonna get a little bit "jiggy" folks :cheesy:
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Re: Florida Weather

#11846 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:09 am

Models have had a very tough handle on their forecast for Thanksgiving day, first it was warm & mostly dry, then warm & rainy, now the Euro & 06z GFS are trending towards a drying trend & slightly below average temps.
I knew their forecast of a cutoff low pressure over the GOM was not going to pan out, most times they do not.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11847 Postby NDG » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:55 am

Models are still struggling with the forecast for Thanksgiving, now back to a rainy & mild Thanksgiving across the Peninsula.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11848 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:33 am

Yeah, differences with the models with regards to the evolution of the potential system in the Gulf of Mexico for the middle of this upcoming week.. It does look like a good possibility for a wet Thanksgiving Day across much of the peninsula however.

Meanwhile, I am enjoying a beautiful weekend down here in Lake Buena Vista. A little fun. short get-away for yours truly!! Fantastic weather here in the Greater Orlando area. Heading back to Jax later this afternoon. Hope everyone will have a great Thanksgiving later this week!!
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Re: Florida Weather

#11849 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:21 pm

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Re: Florida Weather

#11850 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:23 pm

NDG wrote:Models are still struggling with the forecast for Thanksgiving, now back to a rainy & mild Thanksgiving across the Peninsula.

Bad year to be a weather forecast model! First hurricane season, now this.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11851 Postby psyclone » Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:52 pm

Thanksgiving is definitely looking sketchy with NWS Tampa Bay even mentioning some heavy rain potential. We're getting a bit of rain right now (first for November) with the front so we have some catching up to do but I'm hoping we can avoid the rare Thanksgiving day washout.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11852 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:28 am

Models are trending even warmer for Thanksgiving with a little less precipitation than earlier forecasted, highs in the upper 70s across central FL, low 80s for south FL.
Models are also backing away from any drastic cool down for the weekend. PNA does not want to go positive.

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Re: Florida Weather

#11853 Postby boca » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:40 am

The only type of fronts we will get this winter are wind shift fronts or back door fronts,we haven't seen cold weather in 7 years. I hope the pattern changes.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11854 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:41 am

Great example of the effects from the gulf stream across the east coast of FL when a cold high pressure does not penetrate the Peninsula and winds switch really quick off of the Atlantic, a drastic temperature gradient between the east coast and west coast of FL this morning.

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Re: Florida Weather

#11855 Postby boca » Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:59 am

The weather pattern for Florida is so boring right now for someone to like 40s at night and 60s during the day. I for one really miss those cold fronts we used to get even in South Florida.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11856 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:01 pm

boca wrote:The only type of fronts we will get this winter are wind shift fronts or back door fronts,we haven't seen cold weather in 7 years. I hope the pattern changes.

I dislike it too! It’s enough to make me really want to maybe look into moving someplace that actually has changing seasons.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11857 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:03 pm

NDG wrote:Models are trending even warmer for Thanksgiving with a little less precipitation than earlier forecasted, highs in the upper 70s across central FL, low 80s for south FL.
Models are also backing away from any drastic cool down for the weekend. PNA does not want to go positive.

Image

Yep, so much for our cool Thanksgiving week or weekend. Now the Euro is teasing us with cooler weather for next Monday. :roll:
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Re: Florida Weather

#11858 Postby psyclone » Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:55 pm

canceling winter in November seems akin to the famous June hurricane season cancel. Normal highs are still 80ish in south florida and well into the 70's over central florida. Here in the bay area we have had some fantastic weather over the past month...far more normal feeling than the last 2 cold seasons. It was 51 this morning in Tampa and 39 in Brooksville. I'm just delighted that the crazy heat and humidity of the last 2 Novembers has relented this year. It has been really pleasant since the heat broke in late October. Naturally people differ on what is ideal. For me, long stretches of temps that require neither AC or heat is a great measure and the past month has delivered the goods.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11859 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:27 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
boca wrote:The only type of fronts we will get this winter are wind shift fronts or back door fronts,we haven't seen cold weather in 7 years. I hope the pattern changes.

I dislike it too! It’s enough to make me really want to maybe look into moving someplace that actually has changing seasons.


I'm guessing that at some point, we'll have something truly cold again like Christmas 1989, January 2010, or December 2010. I actually hate *that* kind of cold when it happens here. For some reason, and I really can't understand why, 30 degree temperatures in Miami just feel so frigid, while the exact same 30 degree temperature in a place like Denver or Salt Lake City feels like something entirely tolerable. Maybe part of this is because whenever we do get that cold, there's always a 20-30mph NW wind screaming down the peninsula.

For me, it's just that "significant" cold fronts, most years, were typically a lot more consistent than they are now. Most years, from mid-December to mid-January, you were going to get at least one-three frontal passages that drop temps into the 40s for a few nights. Lately, we are lucky to drop into the 50s for any length of time, even in that December-January sweet spot. In January, we've been much more likely to see daytime temps well into the 80s than nighttime temps in the 50s. Let that one sink in. LOL

It seems like the trajectory of the air masses is never right for "cold" anymore, even when we do get frontal passages. The Gulf Stream is always able to assert its influence way too quickly.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11860 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:00 am

:uarrow: Well, it has been so long since we have had a real bonafide -NAO winter in these parts. January 2010 was the last real good -NAO we experienced. It is amazing we have gone this long without seeing one. Looks like our incredible luck escaping the worst of Old Man Winter looks to continue for now. No freeze potential seen for at least the next 10 days. There is a potential of upper 30s in the colder spots of Northeast Florida by Monday morning. The current La Nina, albeit weak, looks to last at least through April, although that is not etched completely in stone.

It is a very wet Thanksgiving morning here in Jax. We have a classic isentropic lift (overrunning) situation today as the Low Pressure system in the NE GOM will slowly move E/NE across North Florida. We will remain in the cool sector of the system today. Temps staying in the low to mid 60s as the warm front will remain to our south and northeast wind and moderate to heavy rain will continue right on through this evening. 2 to 3 inch rain amounts in spots are possible through tonight.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!
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