Florida Weather

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SFLcane
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Re: Florida Weather

#13041 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:54 pm

Finally!!! It has been been a long time since Florida has been covered in blue

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Re: Florida Weather

#13042 Postby canes92 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:40 pm

Feels great out. Finally feels like October, for Florida standards. :D
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Re: Florida Weather

#13043 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:45 am

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Re: Florida Weather

#13044 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:06 pm

Going to feel great!
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Re: Florida Weather

#13045 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:25 am

GFS trends are actually indicating some impressively low mid level heights early next week; So much so, that I would anticipate cold air advection capable of even spreading some low temps into the 40's along the I-4 corridor and 50's into far S. Florida. Melbourne WSO hasn't quite yet embraced those kind of numbers yet but they're beginning to better reflect recent model run consistancy, into their long range discussion.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13046 Postby boca » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:43 am

The lows over the weekend here will be in the upper 60s which is 15 to 20 degrees warmer than Orlando.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13047 Postby psyclone » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:07 am

we've got a chance for some really snappy nights next week before a warming trend resumes...the 8-14 day is already tilting back warm. At least the heat is done and normals have fallen to a point where running a tad high isn't bad at all. in the meantime...I can't wait for a little chill..
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Re: Florida Weather

#13048 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:10 pm

After a bullish 00z run overnight with 50’s well into S.FL for next Tuesday and Wednesday mornings the GFS has backed off a bit on its 06z and 12z runs.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13049 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:00 am

TheStormExpert wrote:After a bullish 00z run overnight with 50’s well into S.FL for next Tuesday and Wednesday mornings the GFS has backed off a bit on its 06z and 12z runs.


Yep, it looks like the GFS is going to "windshield-wipe" us with cold fronts like it does with tropical systems :cheesy:
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Re: Florida Weather

#13050 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:32 am

GFS always with its usual early season bias, being too aggressive with "cooler" temps in its forecast. Looking at night's MOS guidance temps will end up being only a couple of degrees lower than average across the state for this weekend into early next week.
Interesting that ensembles now show the NAO to stay negative to near average over the next couple of weeks but the PNA is going to stay near neutral, you want that PNA to be way positive this time of the year for even cooler wx to come down to FL.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13051 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:42 am

:uarrow: Yes indeed NDG. Positive PNA is a very important component for bringing cold air intrusions into the Deep South and most of Florida. We saw this at the end of December 2017 and the beginning of January 2018.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13052 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:03 am

That's what I was thinking, the neutral-ish PNA limiting the extent of this cool shot, especially for South Florida.

I'm sure it'll still feel much cooler, though, even if the low temp is 69-70, with lower dewpoints and a breeze eventually whipping out of the ENE. It'll be early April-type weather.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13053 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:16 am

60's state wide bring it on...

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Re: Florida Weather

#13054 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:18 am

Patrick99 wrote:That's what I was thinking, the neutral-ish PNA limiting the extent of this cool shot, especially for South Florida.

I'm sure it'll still feel much cooler, though, even if the low temp is 69-70, with lower dewpoints and a breeze eventually whipping out of the ENE. It'll be early April-type weather.

The PNA is positive for now, but come next week it’ll be in a neutral to negative state.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13055 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:19 am

SFLcane wrote:60's state wide bring it on...

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/25/cool.png

Unless you live along the immediate coast lines.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13056 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:58 pm

Euro with low to mid 60's..

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Re: Florida Weather

#13057 Postby FlaWeatherDude » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:44 pm

The Euro and to some extent the GFS is showing a more significant trough for next weekend. Since we're still in a -QBO regime I'd favor the eastern models(as opposed to the 0z CMC's wacky stationary central US dip(that usually happens during a stout +QBO like in 2013-14 and dec 2016)!
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Re: Florida Weather

#13058 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:16 pm

FlaWeatherDude wrote:The Euro and to some extent the GFS is showing a more significant trough for next weekend. Since we're still in a -QBO regime I'd favor the eastern models(as opposed to the 0z CMC's wacky stationary central US dip(that usually happens during a stout +QBO like in 2013-14 and dec 2016)!


Is negative but not as negative as this same time last year.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13059 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:34 am

Just a couple of days ago the headlines were what a "cool" Halloween we were going to have, now the forecast is for highs well into the 80s all across the Peninsula.
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Re: Florida Weather

#13060 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:11 am

NDG wrote:Just a couple of days ago the headlines were what a "cool" Halloween we were going to have, now the forecast is for highs well into the 80s all across the Peninsula.

Yep I guess the -NAO and +PNA won't be working their magic this time despite being in a favorable state right now.
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