Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

This cloud cover over Florida looks stubborn to burn off as I loop satellite imagery this morning. I am actually in the Orlando area this weekend and it certainly feels chilly and winter-like in Central Florida not to mention it looks gloomy. But it certainly puts us in the “holiday” spirit. NWS Melbourne did mention in the latest discussion models may have a bias in clearing the cloud cover. I do think we will finally see some sun breaking through the clouds here in Orlando this afternoon but a high of 66F could be at risk if this cloud cover persists.

The other thing is the NNW wind flow has pushed the cool and gloomy weather all the way down the peninsula and through far south Southern Florida where that region saw 50s for the first time in a long time so really not much warmer than Central Florida.

Yes, good post Gatorcane. Yeah the 997 mb Gale off the NC coast this morning has an expansive stratus deck on its backside and the strong cool air advection on the NNW flow is hindering the diurnal heating to quickly erode the cloud deck. The clearing that normally occurs with the passage of a upper trough axis has been offset across most of the peninsula up to current time just before noon. Eventually, drier air will win out and clearing will gradually take place from west to east the remainder of the day. Some areas won't clear until later this evening.

52.4 degrees currently with overcast conditions here at my locale, but observing visible satellite imagery, the sun is out bright and pretty just across the state line just north of me and the sun is out from Live Oak westward down I-10. It probably will be clearing here in Jax in the next couple of hours.


The clouds and brisk NNW are definitely helping in keeping it chilly with temps in the 50s across most of North Florida and even parts of Central Florida and the lower to mid 60s in South Florida as it is approaching noon at the time of this post.

Cool conditions will continue the next few days. Temps across inland North Florida locales may dip down into the upper 30s, by Tuesday morning, especially if the winds lay down to promote radiational cooling and possible frost formation in those areas. No freeze with this event though here.

[chaser1]

Couldn't be happier with with this really brisk cool-down. Sure, we're not talking about frigid cold but my fireplace will be going again tonight for sure! Gotta admit, this transition from unusually warm to over-all chilly has been the sharpest Fall transition I particularly remember here in Central Florida for some time. It'll be a nice string of days before most of Florida will be jumping back into the low 80's again.

[HurricaneBelle]

I don't believe we've seen the sun in the Tampa Bay area since Wednesday

[psyclone]

Nothing like a couple of cloudy, cold, windy, gloomy days to make one appreciate our sunny climate. Looking forward to a return of sun and milder temps

[chaser1]

I don't believe we've seen the sun in the Tampa Bay area since Wednesday

Sweater weather for sure! Walking by the water over there must feel a bit like a day over in Seattle LOL. Yesterday, I walked outside in the early afternoon and the combination of mid 50's temps, northerly breeze and thick cloud deck and felt like I was immediately stepping out on some January day. By late afternoon the only change was that it was colder yet. So far today, it's not all that different. My take from looking at satellite is that the lower level strata-form clouds are stubbornly holding firm. Meanwhile it looks like there's increasing mid to upper level flow zipping in from the west and across the Gulf. While this is a bit less conducive for lower night-time temps, this certainly acts to hold down day time temps. I've gotten so used to having early season frontal passages result in seeing winds quickly veering from the N.E. and then east. Right now it looks like High pressure at the surface will simply be reinforced by a secondary surge of cool air from the northwest along with a further fall of mid level heights during the next few days. It's nice to see everyone here in Florida actually cool down for a few days.

[chaser1]

Nothing like a couple of cloudy, cold, windy, gloomy days to make one appreciate our sunny climate. Looking forward to a return of sun and milder temps

Funny, I was just thinking that there's nothing like a couple cloudy, cold, windy, gloomy days....... to make one appreciate having a good deal more cloudy, cold, windy, gloomy days Not that I mind the sun on occasion but i'm in no hurry to revisit our 8 months of oppressive heat and humidity.

[gatorcane]

What a stubborn cloud deck which is finally showing some signs of eroding on the northern and southern ends. Models certainly missed the fact the deck would not erode that quickly and as a result pretty much busted peninsula-wide on the temp forecast today (actuals colder than forecasted). Curiously the cloud deck has remained despite the area of low pressure being quite far from Florida as it heads NE.

[chaser1]

What a stubborn cloud deck which is finally showing some signs of eroding on the northern and southern ends. Models certainly missed the fact the deck would not erode that quickly and as a result pretty much busted peninsula-wide on the temp forecast today (actuals colder than forecasted). Curiously the cloud deck has remained despite the area of low pressure being quite far from Florida as it heads NE.

https://i.postimg.cc/FzH0WFtY/20193211741-GOES16-ABI-se-GEOCOLOR-1200x1200.jpg

It really is an odd phenomenon?! Can't say I really get it especially given that the strong low has moved well away?? Some kind of weird low to mid level inversion? Here in Longwood (just north of Orlando) it's 53° out! That's after "peaking out" at 54° about an hour ago. For sure the chilliest pair of November days that I can remember in recent years for my area.

[chaser1]

Crazy Florida weather?! While my high temp today will likely be 54°, I just noticed that it's presently 67 in Tallahassee under sunny skies.

[psyclone]

It's solar winter and it seems common for weather forecasts to overestimate the erosion of low level cloud decks...resulting in busted forecasts. our upper 60's highs and sun ended up as mid 50's and wall to wall clouds. oops. 3 days in a row of this and i'm going stir crazy... no wonder why I had to escape from the great lakes....feels and looks like Cleveland,,! normal in west central fl is upper 70's for highs and 60ish for lows. average is perfection and worth cheering on..

[gatorcane]

Looking at temperatures across the state this morning, looks like we are seeing mostly uniform temps in the 50s for the entire peninsula, even for far southern Florida. Just shows when the wind is out just the right direction (NNW), how the impact from the Gulf Stream as far as any temperature modification is a non factor,.

[psyclone]

Oh sun how we missed you! Now we're in the sweet spot...finally..

[gatorcane]

Hints of a SE ridge returning in the 10+ day, interesting but if so back to above normal temps.

[TheStormExpert]

Hints of a SE ridge returning in the 10+ day, interesting but if so back to above normal temps.

Just as we turn the calendar into December too. Always seems to pop up around that time of year.

[northjaxpro]

Latest teleconnections forecast: - PNA and the NAO is trending positive to start out December. So yeah, the pesky ole' SE Ridge will be back if the teleconnections forecast verify below.

[psyclone]

Normal is starting to get cool as we head for December...so a southeast ridge should be greeted with delight if you like pleasantly warm temps (which...on this board is likely confined to...me!..lol). 3 cheers for normal to somewhat above normal temps!

[TheStormExpert]

Normal is starting to get cool as we head for December...so a southeast ridge should be greeted with delight if you like pleasantly warm temps (which...on this board is likely confined to...me!..lol). 3 cheers for normal to somewhat above normal temps!

Down here in S. FL the SE Ridge in December typically means mid-upper 80’s for highs with balmy 70’s for lows. Nothing pleasant about that in my opinion.

Anyone else notice how the pattern almost always changes to warmer than average as we approach or enter the holiday season?

[psyclone]

Normal is starting to get cool as we head for December...so a southeast ridge should be greeted with delight if you like pleasantly warm temps (which...on this board is likely confined to...me!..lol). 3 cheers for normal to somewhat above normal temps!

Down here in S. FL the SE Ridge in December typically means mid-upper 80’s for highs with balmy 70’s for lows. Nothing pleasant about that in my opinion.

Anyone else notice how the pattern almost always changes to warmer than average as we approach or enter the holiday season?

I'd be surprised if that sort of warmth returns for anyone anytime soon.

[boca]

I like to have a few weeks of cool weather I’m not ready for the SE ridge to rear it’s ugly head.

[northjaxpro]

I have been a happy camper for the past several days now. We have had nice cool Autumn temperatures with morning lows in the 40s and highs mainly in the 60s, except for this past weekend in which cool NNW flow and overcast skies kept our max temps in the 50s. We also escaped getting the first freeze of the season this past week across North and Northeast Florida. The Panhandle region did however.

This will continue for the next few days as well here with mins in the mid-upper 40s interior locales and max temps near 70 by Thursday. Temps look to stay in the 70-75F range for max temps it appears into this weekend! Perfect Fall weather for the holiday season yours truly!! I am happy for has long as we don't see abnormal heat for this time of year (at least 85 degrees or more).

Hopefully, that is behind us here. However, remember, I only measured a total of only 4 days of freezing temps all fall and wnter season last year here, which is beyond crazy. Typically, we had averaged around 10-15 days of reaching at least 32F each fall and winter season, but that has not been the case since 2011, due to such a prolonged period of mild to warm winters across our region.

HÒWEVER, we have seen the heat anomalies the + NAO has brought here in recent years, including last Fall and Winter 2018/19, with record heat in November and December, and once again this past February 2019.

Please, Please, Mother Nature spare us a break from that nonsense this upcoming meteorological 2019-2020 Winter season!!!