Florida Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12321 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:34 am

Patrick99 wrote:In the meantime, down here in South Florida, modification of the air mass seems to be 100% complete. We didn't dip that far below 70 degrees this morning, with a brisk easterly breeze.

Wouldn’t say 100% just yet but it’s pretty much up there. Along with that brisk easterly flow you have the cloud cover, along with showers moving in making for a yucky day. We may see some cooler weather starting this weekend but nothing remotely close to what we just recently saw even though it could’ve been much worse had the NAO actually been negative.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Florida Weather

#12322 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:52 pm

NDG wrote:Considering that North Carolina was in the single digits F this morning with even some spots below zero F and teens over most of South Carolina we dodged the core of the Arctic air that is affecting the eastern US this weekend, thanks to the +NAO.


Even with a +NAO (It was supported by a +PNA/-EPO combo as well as a -AO when averaged out), SAV just experienced its coldest 7 consecutive days in 41 years, its first below 32 F week in 28 years, and a tie for its 8th coldest since records started in the 1870s! The longevity of this cold is one for the ages.

Only 4 of these 10 weeks have occurred during the last 100 years! Considering a warmer globe overall, this extremely cold week was that much more impressive.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12323 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:16 pm

So, the GFS is suggesting that this low forming in the Gulf is actually going to track south of Florida? Are we really buying that? I would think that the Euro's solution, with the low into South Florida, would be much more likely, and frankly I'm not even ready to buy that either. These lows this time of year almost always track into the Big Bend, Central Florida at the most southerly, don't they? Just seems strange for a Gulf low to form in January, and miss South Florida *to the south*.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12324 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:11 pm

The CPC 6-10 day Temperature Outlook has trended more blue with below average temperatures being depicted for the Eastern half of the U.S. including all of Florida again.

Image

If you’re not a fan of the cooler weather don’t worry it should be gone the 8-14 day range being replaced by near average temperatures.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12325 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:45 pm

Patrick99 wrote:So, the GFS is suggesting that this low forming in the Gulf is actually going to track south of Florida? Are we really buying that? I would think that the Euro's solution, with the low into South Florida, would be much more likely, and frankly I'm not even ready to buy that either. These lows this time of year almost always track into the Big Bend, Central Florida at the most southerly, don't they? Just seems strange for a Gulf low to form in January, and miss South Florida *to the south*.



Well, the big storm which brought snow to portions of North Florida and Southern Georgia last week initially formed south of the Middle Florida Keys in the Florida Straits. It missed South Florida to the south and east
The Low tracked northeast off the Southeast coast of Florida and then parallel off the Florida East coast and then pulled away off the Southeast U.S. Atlantic coastal region. That Low was forecast for days leading up to the event by both GFS and EURO to form much farther north up around the Northwest Bahamas. So, the models were off quite a bit with that initialization.

So, although this time of the year it may be more common or typical of Low Pressure systems to track farther north out of the GOM, a storm can form farther south depending upon the placement or position of the sub tropical jet or southern stream energy(vorticity).
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#12326 Postby psyclone » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:10 pm

the 6-10 day has indeed tanked deep into the blue zone...a remarkable change considering the prior day's outlook was depicting normal conditions. Makes me a believer in a blast of cold with a good chance of a freeze threat into the peninsula.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12327 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:42 pm

psyclone wrote:the 6-10 day has indeed tanked deep into the blue zone...a remarkable change considering the prior day's outlook was depicting normal conditions. Makes me a believer in a blast of cold with a good chance of a freeze threat into the peninsula.


Yes psyclone I agree.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12328 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:28 pm

Not sure about a freeze threat into the peninsula this time around but below normal temps look to be a certainty.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12329 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:12 pm

gatorcane wrote:Not sure about a freeze threat into the peninsula this time around but below normal temps look to be a certainty.


There will definitely be a freeze threat for the northern peninsula next week. At the current time, it does not look to be nearly as severe as what we went through this past week with hard freezes across interior areas of the northern peninsula. However, guidance is suggesting. that still could see lows in the upper 20s early next week in the colder areas
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12330 Postby NDG » Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:42 am

LarryWx wrote:
NDG wrote:Considering that North Carolina was in the single digits F this morning with even some spots below zero F and teens over most of South Carolina we dodged the core of the Arctic air that is affecting the eastern US this weekend, thanks to the +NAO.


Even with a +NAO (It was supported by a +PNA/-EPO combo as well as a -AO when averaged out), SAV just experienced its coldest 7 consecutive days in 41 years, its first below 32 F week in 28 years, and a tie for its 8th coldest since records started in the 1870s! The longevity of this cold is one for the ages.

Only 4 of these 10 weeks have occurred during the last 100 years! Considering a warmer globe overall, this extremely cold week was that much more impressive.


That's why I said that central and southern FL lucked out because that was some very cold temps just to the north of the Peninsula that if we would had been dealing with a -NAO even here we would had been in the deep freeze probably colder than Dec 2010.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12331 Postby NDG » Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:48 am

psyclone wrote:the 6-10 day has indeed tanked deep into the blue zone...a remarkable change considering the prior day's outlook was depicting normal conditions. Makes me a believer in a blast of cold with a good chance of a freeze threat into the peninsula.


I am not buying any models that show below average temps in the 6-10 day range when ensembles are now unanimously showing the PNA to go negative next week with a continuing +NAO.
After this weekend I am expecting a big warm up next week.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#12332 Postby psyclone » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:42 am

NDG wrote:
psyclone wrote:the 6-10 day has indeed tanked deep into the blue zone...a remarkable change considering the prior day's outlook was depicting normal conditions. Makes me a believer in a blast of cold with a good chance of a freeze threat into the peninsula.


I am not buying any models that show below average temps in the 6-10 day range when ensembles are now unanimously showing the PNA to go negative next week with a continuing +NAO.
After this weekend I am expecting a big warm up next week.


the below normal normal temps are now less than 6 days out.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#12333 Postby psyclone » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:43 am

at least this cold shot will be transient. Sunday looks to be the coldest with moderation thereafter.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12334 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:00 pm

12Z GFS lows for I-4 corridor: :cold:

Sat night 1/13: low 40s
Sun night 1/14: mid 30s
Mon night 1/15: low 40s
Tues night 1/16: upper 30s
Wed night 1/17: mid 40s:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12335 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:58 pm

psyclone wrote:at least this cold shot will be transient. Sunday looks to be the coldest with moderation thereafter.


As much as I want to see that, it doesn't look like that is what the models have been trending towards.
Looks like the ECMWF has joined the GFS with below to well below normal temps starting this Saturday and lasting the entire week...the ECMWF thinks Wed night will be the coldest night...rebound may not happen until later next week. Doesn't look quite as cold as the last cold snap but still pretty cold.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6306
Age: 59
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12336 Postby boca » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:49 pm

Anyone notice that the satellites pics are stuck on Monday and haven't updated.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#12337 Postby psyclone » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:08 pm

gatorcane wrote:
psyclone wrote:at least this cold shot will be transient. Sunday looks to be the coldest with moderation thereafter.


As much as I want to see that, it doesn't look like that is what the models have been trending towards.
Looks like the ECMWF has joined the GFS with below to well below normal temps starting this Saturday and lasting the entire week...the ECMWF thinks Wed night will be the coldest night...rebound may not happen until later next week. Doesn't look quite as cold as the last cold snap but still pretty cold.


the cold has really been tenacious as of late...quite the change from recent years. every time it looks like it's getting the boot it reasserts itself. sure enough the 6-10 day has tilted back to the cool side of normal and my new NWS forecast is decidedly chilly into next week. not extreme cold but a solid 4-7 degrees below normal at what is already the coldest time of the year.
0 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1644
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Florida Weather

#12338 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:38 pm

boca wrote:Anyone notice that the satellites pics are stuck on Monday and haven't updated.


That's because the site isn't authorized to display GOES East imagery anymore, so it only had GOES 13 data. That satellite was deactivated on Monday
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12339 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:16 am

Looks like we will have a very progressive pattern next week..There will be two very quick shots of cold air providing glancing blows to the peninsula.

The first will arrive this weekend as a upper trough broadens and amplifies quickly Saturday across the Eastern CONUS and brings a round of rain and possible thunderstorms. We clear out Saturday afternoon, and then cold advection settles in Saturday night through Monday morning. 1047 mb Polar High drops south to the Mid Mississippi Valley. But, the Polar High will not move south, but instead will move east to the Mid Atlantic region by Tuesday morning and shift off into the Atlantic. There will be a chance of seeing freezing temps across inland North Florida on both Sunday and Monday morning, but nothing like last week's prolonged cold spell.

The next reinforcing cold front will come through dry on northwest upper flow pattern. This will move through by Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring a threat of a freeze to the northern peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Now, this is a situation this upcoming week in which we really will see the benefits ofhaving the +NAO really saves the peninsula. The peninsula will primarily miss the full brunt of the harshest cold this time just to the north and east . North Florida will get the "glancing blows" with getting. a couple of freeze threats in the interior locations.

We may see the PNA go into a neutral to possible negative index the week starting January 19. That may bring a nice period of warming to our region and to much of the Eastern CONUS in the next 10 -14 day. period. We shall see.
1 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#12340 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:22 am

Latest GFS with a freeze deep into the peninsula Wed night
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 869MB and 39 guests