Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

It is 47 degrees at 6:50 a.m. A beautiful, crisp Autumn morning in Northeast Florida.It may drop another degree or so in the next hour. Definitely the coolest temp.of this season thus far measured here at my locale. Yesterday measured our first sub 70 degree daytime max of the season, only reaching 68 degrees.

Expecting mid 70s for a max today.

I have completely enjoyed the nice, cool, refreshing taste of Autumn air , albeit it will be short lived for the time being.

Rain may be coming by late this week ahead of the next shortwave moving towatd the peninsula.

[TheStormExpert]

Not gonna lie it feels pleasant outside! Currently in the lower 60’s here in West Palm Beach.

[Taffy]

Beautiful morning in Lehigh Acres, SW Florida. 68* and breezy at 10:40 AM. I am in heaven. Doors open. Rain would be nice. Hope we get that later in the week. Getting dry.

[psyclone]

first sub 60 low of the season around the bay area with 58 at tampa and 59 at st pete clearwater... right on schedule for late October. Feels so wonderful outside!

[tpr1967]

first sub 60 low of the season around the bay area with 58 at tampa and 59 at st pete clearwater... right on schedule for late October. Feels so wonderful outside!

I had 58 degrees at my place in Palmetto

[Patrick99]

It's been dry and mild in Miami. One thing interesting is that the winds after this particular frontal passage have actually been mild as well. We've been getting light northeasterly breezes during the daytime, then late at night they almost go slack and kinda back to a northerly direction.

Anyway, our lows are in the low 70s, it is just a drier 70 than usual. It's nowhere near enough to warrant turning the AC off for me. Looks like we are going to get a stalled front in a few days.

[TheStormExpert]

It's been dry and mild in Miami. One thing interesting is that the winds after this particular frontal passage have actually been mild as well. We've been getting light northeasterly breezes during the daytime, then late at night they almost go slack and kinda back to a northerly direction.

Anyway, our lows are in the low 70s, it is just a drier 70 than usual. It's nowhere near enough to warrant turning the AC off for me. Looks like we are going to get a stalled front in a few days.

Yes we're getting a back-door front off the Atlantic which should keep winds coming out of the Northeasterly direction a little longer, no significant cooldown with this front like originally forecasted last week.

Meanwhile in the 8-10 day range the most recent two runs of the Euro has been showing a deep trough carving out across the Eastern third of the U.S., too soon to sound the hype alarm as the NAO is forecasted to trend back positive along with the PNA heading negative.

[boca]

I’ve been wondering why the NAO is always positive and only goes to negative only once in awhile?

[NDG]

I’ve been wondering why the NAO is always positive and only goes to negative only once in awhile?

Is been the regime for at least the last 3-4 years or so, which i s not unusual to have every few decades or so. I am thinking it should be changing later on this upcoming winter season. Though in the early 90s a +NAO regime lasted 5 years or so.
The last -NAO regime was during late '09-'13 or so.

[NDG]

A very warm start to November in central FL as thought, the only "cool" day will be on Saturday but quickly warming up by Sunday.

[Patrick99]

I’ve been wondering why the NAO is always positive and only goes to negative only once in awhile?

I think it does go negative regularly, we just tend not to notice because it often goes negative at the "wrong" time. No one in Florida notices or cares if it goes negative in May-July, or really any of the summer months, unless it's going to have a potential impact on a hurricane landfall or something.

I still remember the crazy weather of the first half of January, 2010. Not only was it so cold, we got freezing rain in South Florida. And then, the same year, we had about 3 straight weeks of way below normal temps in December. I'm not sure which NAO- event was crazier.....freezing rain in SFL is nuts, but then again so is 3 weeks of chill. Those were some of the very few times I've ever felt uncomfortably cold, in Miami - that's a fairly short list.

[northjaxpro]

I have discussed this, along with several others through the past several years on here, on how super lucky the Florida peninsula has been in avoiding the simultaneous trifecta of the -AO, -NAO and +PNA teleconnection. We have not had them all going at the same time in the meteorological winter since the 2009-10 season for the peninsula.

Our number will come up eventually and at some point we are going to pay back Mother Nature for this. So, count our blessings regarding this for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

I too hope the NAO does go negative more during this upcoming winter season when compared to the last several years. Just not hoping for the record breaking cold we saw during all three winter months of 2010. I know most people live in FL for the warmth and humidity but we put up with that at least half of the year non-stop so a cooler than normal winter is a welcome sight IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: I have discussed this, along with several others through the past several years on here, on how super lucky the Florida peninsula has been in avoiding the simultaneous trifecta of the -AO, -NAO and +PNA teleconnection. We have not had them all going at the same time in the meteorological winter since the 2009-10 season for the peninsula.

Our number will come up eventually and at some point we are going to pay back Mother Nature for this. So, count our blessings regarding this for sure.

The -AO I believe is not as important to bringing down the cool/cold air as the -NAO and +PNA is but it sure helps having all three align up if you want to see record breaking cold snaps.

Unfortunately that time will come again where we see a widespread statewide freeze a lot like in 2010, and when it does it may not be a one time occurrence. We've already seen two majors (one of which was POTENTIALLY a Cat.5) make landfall in FL after a nearly 12 year major hurricane hit drought, so everything comes in bunches it seems.

[northjaxpro]

Having the trifecta all occuring at once totally ensures a very cold pattern and potential record cold for the peninsula as a whole, including. South Florida and even the Keys .A -AO is important in this context.

But. generally, -AO is not absolutely needed to bring major cold spells to the peninsula. But --NAO and +PNA are critically needed to occur for our part of the world to get some significamt chill!

Also, that teleconnection trifecta in the winter would likely is rare these days. We have not had that alignment in the winter since that 2009-10 season.

[psyclone]

Looks like tornado touchdowns strong enough to partially remove roofs in Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties. Perhaps the first Nino induced cold season svr episode. this line was really sassy.

[MetroMike]

Looks like tornado touchdowns strong enough to partially remove roofs in Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties. Perhaps the first Nino induced cold season svr episode. this line was really sassy.

This event totally caught me off guard this afternoon. Was at my office and heard the P.A. announcement saying Tornado Warning, take cover in the interior hallway.
It is a rare event for me to be so surprised by breaking events like this.
Possible that this may be telling of the pattern for the upcoming several months.

[psyclone]

Looks like tornado touchdowns strong enough to partially remove roofs in Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties. Perhaps the first Nino induced cold season svr episode. this line was really sassy.

This event totally caught me off guard this afternoon. Was at my office and heard the P.A. announcement saying Tornado Warning, take cover in the interior hallway.
It is a rare event for me to be so surprised by breaking events like this.
Possible that this may be telling of the pattern for the upcoming several months.

This was definitely an outperformer. No watch and only a marginal (5%) in the SPC outlook. And we end up with close to an outbreak type event. I was watching things escalate offshore and saw a number of decent rotations in the Gulf so I expected greater potential than was advertised but this exceeded my personal expectations. The last special marine warning issued before landfall was of the high end variety (svr winds in excess of 50kt verbiage). At that point I expected a severe thunderstorm warning...which came soon thereafter but not all of these tornado touchdowns. I think at one point there were 5 simultaneous tor warnings in close proximity and many of these will verify. This was a very respectable event. And of course as we know, northern and central florida tend have these events with greater frequency in Nino cold seasons.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That was a heck of a line. There were 4 simultaneous tornado warnings and lots of severe thunderstorm warnings. 60 mph winds took down lots of branches across the area as well. Very reminiscent of the 2016 El Niño severe outbreaks and the 1998 El Niño severe events I experienced as a child.

[NDG]

The severity of the squall line was very surprising, was not expecting that. I had even watered my garden in the morning because the forecast was for the squall line to die out as it was to approach my area, the models did a horrible job on the forecast the day before, I am sure temps in the mid 80s ahead of the squall line helped the severe wx. There's going to be a lot more of these this winter.
Had winds gusts close to 60 mph in my neighborhood, with down branches everywhere