Florida Weather

[FireRat]

40s again tonight out here near the Everglades in W. Broward, rivaling last night. It's 47 out in my neighborhood and trying to lower into the mid 40s, especially in more isolated areas during this good radiational cooling-type of night. It's one of those nights where busier parts of town are still in the low to mid 50s, then temps fall to the 40s once away from developed areas and closer to parks. Temps right now are generally high 40s to mid 50s depending on location in this county.

[NDG]

We are very lucky that another mostly +NAO winter has kept most of central and S FL freeze free, and the one week that the NAO was negative in January a very active subtropical jet kept us from tanking at night.

Also good thing that the Arctic High coming down to the eastern US this weekend is going out to sea and not straight south to FL!

[FireRat]

That is sure some luck NDG

meanwhile what a weird night across the state temperature-wise. I wish I could snapshot it and post here but looking at obs in wunderground.com, parts of South Florida are colder than many areas in central and northern FL. There are many 50s all the way up to Jax and Tallahassee and yet we have lots of middle 40s in the everglades currently at this hour early Sat AM. my own locale is seeing a range of 48 to 51 degrees. sure don't see this everyday lol...now coastal south Fl is a whole other story...widespread 60s.

[psyclone]

Spring is in sight. Thankfully the extreme cold visiting the northeast is pivoting off to the east. meanwhile the evolving upper pattern (along with climo) now distinctly favors milder weather. Even on these cool days you can feel the intensity in the sun as our days continue to lengthen. And perhaps the best indicator it's pretty much over...we're not even seeing GFS fantasy freeze maps being posted now. Time for pollen, Spring break and then Spring training.

[tropicwatch]

We are in the mid 50's in the panhandle right now and my windshield was covered in pollin this morning. Weird weather!

[TheStormExpert]

Gotta love these cool nights with relatively mild afternoons! Wish it could be like this everyday throughout each winter and even the whole year for that matter. The temperature range is just so perfect, not too cold and not too hot, just right.

[northjaxpro]

Currently 35.4 degrees at my locale. Looks like my locale, along with the NWS Jax WFO, will just escape a freeze this morning. Actually, Cecil Commerce, the cold drainage spot in Jax, is currently at 32 degrees. It is going to be a cool day with the possibility of some light rain along the immediate coast of Northeast Florida with an onshore flow and a developing coastal trough. Highs today will be mainly in the mid to upper 50's .

As a few of you.have pointed out already, the true first signs of spring are now evident. Tree pollen is around and also looking at long range model forecasts, especially the EURO, it looks like the old dreaded Southeast U.S. ridge will be returning. It will build in from the Gulf of Mexico within the next week to 10 days. So, there will be no freezes in sight for North Florida, possibly through the rest of this month in February, possibly extending into March.

So, it appears we will be returning back to the warm pattern we had earlier in this season, back in November and December 2015. Plus with the days getting longer now, and the sun angle getting higher in the sky, yes definitely, spring read is on our doorstep.

The + NAO has flexed its influence over Florida yet again for another winter season. I can not express any more than I have recently just how extremely lucky the peninsula has been about this since the 2009-10 winter season.

Enjoy it everyone because our streaks with avoiding severe arctic blasts, and of course our current over 10 year streak of not being impacted by major hurricanes, at some point is going to come to an abrupt end. You would figure the law of averages will come to fruition right?

[boca]

It looks like the rains from El Niño and the subtropical jet is now in the past and the SE death ridge will be here just like Nov and Dec.It was nice having a break from the heat but it will be back very soon.

[psyclone]

it's only mid February. There's no indication the insane above normal temps of November and December are returning. we're entering the sweet spot where it's too late for extreme cold and too soon for extreme heat. it's going to last awhile and it should be awesome. spring is the best transition season IMO.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Keep in mind that back in 98 there was a severe tornado outbreak in central Fl. during late Feb. We all know what el nino that was.

[Sanibel]

We're forecast for brief rain tomorrow at 8am. This front isn't supposed to be cold and we should stay in the 70's for at least a week.

[HURRICANELONNY]

For those who remembered his name at the end of NWS Miami Dicussions. He's moving to San Diego. Gonna be rough weather out there.

This closes out my final forecast discussion for the National Weather Service Miami-
South Florida weather forecast office as I will be transferring to
National Weather Service San Diego. From hurricanes to floods to tornadoes and
more...it has been a pleasure serving the people of South Florida!
/Gregoria

[gatorcane]

He mentioned all of the severe weather for South Florida - didn't mention the sunshine or all the good weather we have too.

His forecast for San Diego should be a cut-and-paste for most of the year....well not exactly but not nearly as dynamic as the weather here in South Florida!

[northjaxpro]

Rain and storms quickly moved through Northeast Florida in the wee hours earlier this morning. Picked up about 3/4 of an inch of rain. No severe weather reported across the region.

Medium range EURO models are now breaking down the upper ridge by early next week. So, it may be possible that a gradual cooling trend in the long range. However, I still do not anticipate any freezes in the long range at this time.

[Bocadude85]

Possible tornado in my area this morning. Numerous large trees uprooted, signs blown out and a few windows blown out in some of the businesses along federal highway in Lighthouse Point.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yup been driving around S. Fl. this morning. Trees down everywhere. From Miami to Ft. Lauderdale. Power outages are reported as well as traffic lights.Seems like the models underestimated the line during a super elnino. The NWS was saying maybe thunderstorms but no mention of this severity of storms. Luckily no reports of injury.

[Sanibel]

Strange front pounded us before sunrise but quick and gone. Bright sun and warm in the 70's behind front. Strange that there was no cold air behind it.

[TheStormExpert]

Strange front pounded us before sunrise but quick and gone. Bright sun and warm in the 70's behind front. Strange that there was no cold air behind it.

There shouldn't be any cold air behind this front, but there will be some cooler temperatures for both the daytime and nighttime over the next several days. About near average in terms of temperatures is all we will get from this frontal passage.

[TheStormExpert]

The latest 12z Euro run has come in much stronger with a cooldown in the longrange(8-10 days), the 12z GFS run is not nearly as bullish with this cooldown 8-10 days out. In fact I believe the latest 12z Euro run is probably too bullish with this cool down and will likely come back to reality like the GFS is showing in future runs. The GFS has been showing this cool down for days now so it is worth monitoring.

12z Euro Hr.192 500mb Heights



12z Euro Hr.216 500mb Heights



12z Euro Hr.240 500mb Heights



12z Euro Hr.192 850hpa Temp. Anomalies Heights



12z Euro Hr.216 850hpa Temp. Anomalies Heights



12z Euro Hr.240 850hpa Temp. Anomalies Heights



12z Euro Hr.192 850hpa Air Temp. Heights



12z Euro Hr.216 850hpa Air Temp. Heights



12z Euro Hr.240 850hpa Air Temp. Heights



12z GFS Hr.192 500mb Heights



12z GFS Hr.216 500mb Heights



12z GFS Hr.240 500mb Heights



12z GFS Hr.216 Temp. Anomalies



12z GFS Hr.216 Air Temp.

[HURRICANELONNY]

There is kind of a sign if it holds. AO models show it heading negative around that time. Maybe will get some cool air again next week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml