Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

I am hoping that we have an El Nino similar to what we had in 2009-10 this season.

Hopefully, we are seeing the beginning of -NAO setting up now. The key will also be having a very good +PNA signal to help drive cold air down into the Eastern CONUS as well this Fall/Winter season upcoming too.

Remember, thanks to our +PNA at the end of 2017 and start of January 2018, bought us the coldest weather of the season across North and Central Florida, despite the +NAO at that time. I stuck my neck out big time with the GFS forecasting a major cold spell, going against the grain of what most others thought would not happen.

Well, I ended up being correct with staying with GFS and in the process we got a Southeast GA Winter Storm which I tracked and followed from the very beginning stages back in early January 2018!

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: I am hoping that we have an El Nino similar to what we had in 2009-10 this season.

Hopefully, we are seeing the beginning of -NAO setting up now. The key will also be having a very good +PNA signal to help drive cold air down into the Eastern CONUS as well this Fall/Winter season upcoming too.

Remember, thanks to our +PNA at the end of 2017 and start of January 2018, bought us the coldest weather of the season across North and Central Florida, despite the +NAO at that time. I stuck my neck out big time with the GFS forecasting a major cold spell, going against the grain of what most others thought would not happen.

Well, I ended up being correct with staying with GFS and in the process we got a Southeast GA Winter Storm which I tracked and followed from the very beginning stages back in early January 2018!

If I were you I wouldn’t be hoping for anything like the winter months of 2010. Remember all of the crop damage?

[northjaxpro]

No. I am just hoping for a cool and damp winter, which we had in the 2009 winter. That is my personal preference for this winter season. I have a preference to cooler weather. I definitely do not want any drought or severe cold .of any sort to damage crops. Just cooler than average temps and average to slightly above average precip.

Plus, should it be of concern to everyone else what I prefer anyway StormExpert, not that I am wanting, nor asking for what others think of what I hope for concerning my winter season outlook..

[psyclone]

Cold weather is far from assured in a Nino winter. The super Nino in '15 featured ridiculous warmth in November and December of that year. svr wx was also less than what I would have expected given the strength of that Nino. My hope is mild and wet. After 120 90 degree days...I have no interest in spending a dime to stay warm

[northjaxpro]

Cold weather is far from assured in a Nino winter. The super Nino in '15 featured ridiculous warmth in November and December of that year. svr wx was also less than what I would have expected given the strength of that Nino. My hope is mild and wet. After 120 90 degree days...I have no interest in spending a dime to stay warm

Fair enough psyclone. This is your preference and that is well and good. I have chatted with you on here through the years and had knowledgeof your thoughts on the cold. Many people share your sentiment

It has just been so hot this past summer and now going into October with 90 degree days that I am more so eagerly hoping for cooler times ahead. I just so sick of the heat for the time being.

Yeah, there absolutely are no assurances at all from Mother Nature that we will have a cooler than average winter like we have had in prior El Nino seasons. Heck there are no absolute assurances in weather overall for that matter. It is why weather is what it is and why it is forever fascinating. It is science at its very best! Period!

I have been around this too long to definitely not sell Mother Nature short of anything!!

[psyclone]

I definitely share your sentiments on the heat. My goodness enough! Looking forward to some more pleasing temps. I'm all for cool, hoodie/jacket winter weather...while reminding myself that the weather has 0 interest in my preferences. We get what mother nature dishes out and I have learned to appreciate whatever that may be. To the extent a Nino tends to spice things up in our corner of the world...bring it on.. Transitioning out of the hot/tropical weather season and into the "cold" season is interesting and enjoyable..

[psyclone]

Speaking of transitioning...both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook show normal or below normal temps for Florida. Considering the degree to which we have torched lately we are destined to have a meaningful transformation over the next couple of weeks and it should be glorious..

[northjaxpro]

No doubt psyclone that El Nino winter patterns can and often do spice up our weather with storms for sure. It really has me intrigued what Mother Nature could potentially have up her sleeve in the next few months for us in the peninsula.

[mlfreeman]

:uarrow: No doubt psyclone that El Nino winter patterns can and often do spice up our weather with storms for sure. It really has me intrigued what Mother Nature could potentially have up her sleeve in the next few months for us in the peninsula.

You mentioned something about severe weather for Fla-Ga next weekend over in the tropical model thread.
Curious what you're thinking there.

To me, lows like the one mentioned over there usually turn into annoyingly-chilly rain, not severe storms (as far as I can recall anyway).

On another note, I hope this projected 72 for tomorrow happens, I need to get into my attic without dying of heat exhaustion!

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: No doubt psyclone that El Nino winter patterns can and often do spice up our weather with storms for sure. It really has me intrigued what Mother Nature could potentially have up her sleeve in the next few months for us in the peninsula.

You mentioned something about severe weather for Fla-Ga next weekend over in the tropical model thread.
Curious what you're thinking there.

To me, lows like the one mentioned over there usually turn into annoyingly-chilly rain, not severe storms (as far as I can recall anyway).

On another note, I hope this projected 72 for tomorrow happens, I need to get into my attic without dying of heat exhaustion!

GFS. earlier had a dynamical Low Pressure (1002 mb) moving east along the Gulf Coast and. crossing North Florida for next weekend. However, GFS has sinced backed off that earlier solution from 00Z run from last night.

GFS is for now just showing shortwaves rippling along a frontal boundary and moving across North Florida for next weekend in the last couple of runs from last night.

[NDG]

Say good bye to the 90s for a while. Cloud cover will keep temps near average, looks like the usual converging rains for this time of the year along the Atlantic coast setting up first in SE coastal FL early next week then into the central and northern Atlantic FL coast later in the week, typical of when we see on shore cooler air moving over the still very warm Atlantic ocean.
Regarding temps for the upcoming winter it will all depend overall on the NAO, in my opinion. A continuing +NAO pattern over all will mean a mostly average to above average temps like the last El Nino.
The last really cold El Nino year, '09/'10 winter, the NAO had already flipped to negative by this time already.

What do you think about the NAO going negative for the first time since late spring next week?

We shall see, it may go negative but for a short period of time, a true -NAO regime may not happen until later on in Dec into Feb like the Euro weeklies have been showing.

[TheStormExpert]

Well this mornings update does look promising in terms of showing the NAO going negative for at least the short-term. Accompanied by a positive PNA this should allow the FL Peninsula to have a decent chance of seeing its first real cool down of the season.





Btw, the 00z Euro is still colder (although not as cold as yesterdays 12z) than the GFS regarding the pre-Halloween front.

[northjaxpro]

It is a glorious, sunny and most importantly, a refreshingly cool morning in my area of Northeast Florida. Temp currently 65 degrees. It bottomed out at 59.4.earlier this morning. Crisp feel in the air!

Expecting 73 degrees for max temp this afternoon with northeast breezes as a frontal system passed thtough just before sunrise this morning! Forecast min for tomorrow morning 50 degrees!!

It feels splendid! FINALLY, we are getting a taste of Fall here!

[NDG]

:uarrow: Well this mornings update does look promising in terms of showing the NAO going negative for at least the short-term. Accompanied by a positive PNA this should allow the FL Peninsula to have a decent chance of seeing its first real cool down of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/AcyDagl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/dSt6DxH.gif

Btw, the 00z Euro is still colder (although not as cold as yesterdays 12z) than the GFS regarding the pre-Halloween front.

https://i.imgur.com/8kKC8VI.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZagQmLr.png

Is not going to last long, MJO is getting ready to go to phase 8 & 1 over the next few days which means warmer temps will return for the SE US at least for the first half of Nov, most times.

[psyclone]

For the first time this football season the Bucs get to play at home in non heat stroke inducing weather. It's finally just warm instead of hot and things are trending nicer.

[mlfreeman]

Anyone here tracking how the new beta GFS (the FV3-GFS on tropicaltidbits) is doing vs the regular GFS accuracy-wise for our weather in general [as opposed to tropical systems]?

[SFLcane]

Strong front this upcoming weekend with 60's and some 50's across SFL looking possible

[boca]

Strong front this upcoming weekend with 60's and some 50's across SFL looking possible

What that really means is lows near 70 along the SE coast.The winds shift quickly to NE time after time it seems lately.

[chaser1]

Strong front this upcoming weekend with 60's and some 50's across SFL looking possible

What that really means is lows near 70 along the SE coast.The winds shift quickly to NE time after time it seems lately.

GFS has been consistent as hell about this front and the real low mid level heights. The entire state will enjoy a few days of Fall weather for sure. I'd be willing to bet a few reporting stations from W. Palm to Lake 'O to Ft. Myers and south, will report lows Saturday night in the upper 50's. With high pressure stacked up and down right over South/central Fla. on Sunday, radiation cooling will likely keep low 60's the following night most everywhere in the south away from the immediate coast as well

[chaser1]

Anyone here tracking how the new beta GFS (the FV3-GFS on tropicaltidbits) is doing vs the regular GFS accuracy-wise for our weather in general [as opposed to tropical systems]?

Great question and was kind of wondering how well it'll test out. I've been looking at the both (as well as the EURO) and will be curious to see how well the FV3 does. Now that the time frame for this entire cool event is under 200 hours, i'm going to even more closely compare the two in terms of accuracy, timing, AND each one's run to run forecast consistency. Up to now, the "old" GFS has been pretty steadfast on nearly the same forecast and timing of evolution of the N. Gulf low ("ex-Willa".... hey? Let's just name this "Cold Front Exwilla"! LOL), associated rainfall, initial frontal passage timing, and surface wind shift.