Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Temp now at 34.4 degrees at 9 :20 p.m. We have fairly decent radiational cooling conditions tonight here at my home station with the High Pressure axis directly over the area. Looks like the second freeze of this season will likely occur when I get up here early in the morning, if not sooner.

[northjaxpro]

Well here at 5: 37 a.m. temperature is 31.3 degrees. The lowest so far this morning was at 3:50 a.m at 30.2 degrees. High clouds are streaming in above, but not thick enough to have prevented the light freeze from occuring this morning. Also, have some scattered frost in the yard this early New Year's Eve morning. This is only the second freeze of the 2016-2017 Fall/ Winter season measured at my.locale so far. Freezes have been very few and far between this season across North Florida due to mostly a positive NAO and it looks as if this does not look to change soon.

The moderation resumes today and on into next week with temps back into the 70s and 80s across the peninsula. Rain looks to return beginning New Year's Day and into the first half of next week.

[NDG]

Good radiational cooling during the night also here in Seminole County, I woke up briefly at 4 AM saw that the temp had dropped to the upper 30s in my neighborhood but after that winds must have picked up because now temps are in the low 40s in my neighborhood as through the Orlando area. At least my A/C is getting a break yesterday and today.

[psyclone]

Evidently my blood has really thinned out as last night felt frigid. I'm content to bring back the warmth. 43 was the low at Tampa with St Pete Clearwater stopping at 50 so these temps were not unusual...they just felt cold.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well maybe by next weekend the cool to cold will get down to S. Fl. Have to wait and see how it progresses. The NAO/AO is progged for now to start heading negative. So atleast it'a start

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe the 00z GFS is seeing the effects of the NAO/AO going slightly negative? Anyways, Happy New Year(2017) everyone on S2K!

[northjaxpro]

Happy New Year everyone!! Well, we'll see if this pans out but maybe, just maybe, we may finally see some cooler weather across the entire peninsula, if the GFS verifies. We will see if the model guidance agrees with the latest teleconnections forecast indices that the NAO is trying to go negative just a bit. It has been so long (now just over six years) since we have seen any decent tanking of the NAO in winter in that I REALLY will literally have to see it to believe it.

[psyclone]

My NWS forecast has temps back to normal by Wed and then somewhat below normal thereafter with highs in the 60's. Definitely cooler times ahead.

[NDG]

Yesterday's GFS runs of forecasting freezing temps for parts of central FL for Friday morning went poof, what's mind boggling is how can the GFS be so wrong in its 5 day range.

[northjaxpro]

The latest GFS run from 6Z shows a pretty decent cold airmass infiltrating the Deep South beginning Sunday 1/8 . A freeze looks like a pretty good bet across all of North Florida Sunday and Monday morning of next week.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I was reading the NWS Miami Discussion and he mentions the word strong cold front next monday 1/9. Have to wait see how it pans out. Looks like the AO is tanking. So maybe a good sign down here.

This low, and a 500 mb low associated
with it, may deepen as it interacts with the Atlantic coast.
Models are showing this low will have a strong cold front, which
would push through South Florida by next Monday morning.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, a winter storm is forecast currently to potentially impact portions of the Deep South later this weekend on the latest 6Z GFS, which I discussed in the Deep South Winter Weather Thread this morning.

A strong front will come in behind.that storm system and push through the peninsula later this upcoming weekend. This could be the coldest weather of the season coming into the peninsula by this time next week.

[psyclone]

Today really represents the peak with near record warmth slipping to near normal by Thursday and below thereafter. weekend highs are currently progged in the mid 60's here and when "breezy" is in the forecast that far out...it would imply active cold air advection which means even colder temps could be just beyond the forecast range. We're definitely going to get cooler...dramatically so...the question is whether or not we have a legit cold shot. interesting to note that the freakish heatwave of late 2015 ended at the same time with January marking much cooler times. Maybe this year can do something similar.

[AdamFirst]

Happy New Year everyone...glad there is relief from the warmth on the way

[northjaxpro]

Still early in the week and I am sure we will see changes to MOS forecast for Monday morning, but currently upper 20s across inland North Florida while mid-upper 30s across the I-4 corridor. South Florida mid to upper 40s inland north and west of Lake O are indicated for now. These values could change of course as the week progresses.

I suspect that these MOS values will probably be a bit colder as the week goes on ....

[NDG]

Still early in the week and I am sure we will see changes to MOS forecast for Monday morning, but currently upper 20s across inland North Florida while mid-upper 30s across the I-4 corridor. South Florida mid to upper 40s inland north and west of Lake O are indicated for now. These values could change of course as the week progresses.

I suspect that these MOS values will probably be a bit colder as the week goes on ....

Good morning northjaxpro, which MOS guidance are you looking at, I do not see them being that low for central FL at all.
Also, raw GFS also only shows 40s for lows along the I-4 corridor with H85 winds coming off the Atlantic Ocean as the High Pressure center is forecasted to stay north of the FL Peninsula by both the GFS and Euro.

[northjaxpro]

ah my friend my I am getting senile lol.. I wasook obserbing. by accident an older GFS model temp output from a couple of days back from this past New Year's weekend. I was doing model analysis runs and forgot to do a refresher on my screen from earlier this morning.

Thanks NDG for pointing out my FROPA lol..man am I starting to lose it or what ?

Sorry about my terrible oversight gang. I am embarrassed
by this. My attention span needs sharpening ...

Yes NDG you are right as the 6Z. GFS from earlier today shows now that the strong Arctic High will move east into the Mid Atlantic region by next week and not build more southward. Thus, onshore flow from the Atlantic will.commence and modify the airmass over the rest of the peninsula. It now appears as if just interior North Florida may possibly see a light freeze on Monday morning.

[NDG]

:uarrow: ah my friend my I am getting senile lol.. I wasook obserbing. by accident an older GFS model temp output from a couple of days back from this past New Year's weekend. I was doing model analysis runs and forgot to do a refresher on my screen from earlier this morning.

Thanks NDG for pointing out my FROPA lol..man am I starting to lose it or what ?

Sorry about my terrible oversight gang. I am embarrassed
by this. My attention span needs sharpening ...

Yes NDG you are right as the 6Z. GFS from earlier today shows now that the strong Arctic High will move east into the Mid Atlantic region by next week and not build more southward. Thus, onshore flow from the Atlantic will.commence and modify the airmass over the rest of the peninsula. It now appears as if just interior North Florida may possibly see a light freeze on Monday morning.

No problem, it happens to me at times also. It looks like central and southern FL is going to luck out once again from the deep freeze many across the deep south will see starting this weekend. Though H85 winds will switch off of the Atlantic Ocean really quick it looks like it will keep daytime highs slightly below average because of low cloud cover especially on Sunday, better than the 80s we have been seeing.
It looks like the usual cold spots from Marion County on north along I-75 could still be seeing a light freeze if enough cold air drains down on that side of the coast.

[psyclone]

It looks cool but not cold. Low 60's for highs on Sunday is the current guess for the bay area..that's close to 10 degrees below normal but lows hold in the 40's. Last January and February featured a bunch of similar weather with frequent below normal temps but no genuine cold snaps/freezes. I'm hoping we can thread the needle again this year. I'm ready to push out these 70 degree dewpoints.

[gatorcane]

GFS has trended colder, 12Z GFS just out. Looks like low 40s and even upper 30s into West-central Florida away from the water with a freeze over north Florida.