Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Strong storms ahead of a January front in South Florida would be pretty rare for this kind of dry, warm La Nina-esque winter.

What usually happens in these cases is that they back off on the predictions of storminess as the front gets closer. Usually some language like "best dynamics will be further north; best chance of storms northern portion of forecast area near Lake Okeechobee"

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hit it right on the button. Don't even know why they mention it in the first place.

best dynamics will be well north of the region,
and the timing of the frontal passage may be during less than
ideal instability diurnally. Regardless, plenty of moisture, wind
field, and at least some convergence easily warrants thunder risk
during this period.

[psyclone]

TBW mentions some potential of strong to severe storms followed by cooler, but not cold weather. maybe our temps will slide closer to normal...and any rain is much needed.

[psyclone]

Also worth a mention...we've passed the absolute trough for daily averages at Tampa (1-10) and average temps are now slowly on the upswing.

[Ntxw]

+PNA signal showing up with eastern trough end of Jan/early Feb. Might see some notable fronts into Florida during this period. NAO is questionable so maybe short lived cold but interesting no less.

[gatorcane]

Yeah it does look like a pattern change come end-of-month (possibly around the 27th or so) where Florida and SE United States could be in for several days of below normal temps. Just how cold remains to be seen until we get closer.

[psyclone]

well the 8-14 day outlook has been trending cooler for quite sometime now and it now shows all of the west and the deep south (including all of Florida) painted in blue so the colder trend continues...maybe we'll have a freeze threat or at the very least an extended episode of chilly weather...preceding that looks to be some severe risk which is now showing on the SPC 4-8 day outlook...which at this point for FL is confined to the northern part of the state. Active, interesting and changeable weather looks to be on the way for sure.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has nearly a week of below normal temps for Florida starting the 27th, quite a change from what the state has been experiencing as of late.

[JaxGator]

Hey guys, it's been awhile. Hope y'all had a merry Christmas and are having a happy New Year so far (and enjoying the hurricane off-season). So, I guess the cold in the morning and warm in the afternoon will persist for the rest of the week (as Florida winters go), but it looks like we might have severe weather issues this weekend.

[psyclone]

The Sunday severe risk now includes portions of peninsular florida in addition to all of northern florida...areas west and north of a line from new Smyrna beach (Volusia county) to about the Venice area (Sarasota county)...that is a significant expansion over the previous outlook so it will be interesting to see this evolve in the coming days.

[gatorcane]

Wowza both the ECMWF and GFS are carving a huge trough over the Eastern half of the United States with the latest 12Z GFS showing an extended period of below normal temps for Florida with a freeze nosing into Central Florida and mid to upper 30sF for the SE Coast of Florida. Plenty of time to watch these temperature trends but certainly interesting nonetheless. Still long-range but check it out.

[gatorcane]

If the ECMWF went out another frame, looks like it would send the cold directly into Florida looking at the long-range ECMWF:

[Ntxw]

+PNA and mid Atlantic cyclogenesis is good for sending some cold to Florida. Notice the flow is NW to SE. To see a freeze deeper into FL look for trends in EPO and NAO.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, especially watch the NAO to see how much it will tank. The problem is the NAO just
has not gone negative significantly during meterological winter. This has been the case for over six years now. We will see if this will finally change. Florida is so very long overdue to have some type of significant cold spell. We shall see if the EURO is sniffing something out long range. I will literally have to see this happen to believe it when a significant tanking of the NAO finally materizes.

The PNA does look to turn positive though, so arctic air will be able to move south out of Siberia and into Western Canada in about 10 days or so. So Old Man Winter may be finally coming out of his long hibernation and a rather cold February may be in store for much of the CONUS.

[northjaxpro]

Also, I am becoming increasingly concerned about this weekend's severe thunderstorm potential across North Florida in particular. Models are showing multiple Low Pressure areas to traverse across Georgia and North Florida region , especially the Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening time frame. Definitely looks to be potentially a very active severe weather event. The next few model run cycles will definitely clue us in on how it will be this weekend as the event gets closer.

[psyclone]

Agree WRT weekend SVR WX threat. Winter set ups are always very conditional but this appears to have some decent potential. I definitely expect cooler temps long term but I'm not buying any long range model freeze depiction until it reels in closer. A threat may ultimately develop or we may just have a period of cooler than normal temps. Freeze threats down state tend to be very front month loaded in February and time is ticking. At this point it looks likely that we're going to escape January, the most dangerous month, in good shape but it's still too soon to know for certain.

[northjaxpro]

Hey psyclone. I think at this juncture, it looks good with regards to having no freezes in the peninsula, at least up to the 28th of this month. But, of course too soon to know just how cold it may be by the end of this month.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS with 7 days straight of below to well below normal temps for Florida from the 28th through the 3rd with front after front moving through. Haven't seen such a pattern in a long time here. Kinda reminds me of 2009-2010 setup in January. Such a setup could bring a freeze into the peninsula. Still long-range so low uncertainty. Bears watching especially if the NAO tanks.

[psyclone]

The good news is the GFS beyond about 4 days is lousy.

[boca]

I'm in Boca Raton and the coldest low I see is 59 degrees on Feb 1st so I'm totally not buying the cold air making it down here.